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this market is pretty intense.this market is pretty intense, so it is important to be strategic. this is not a "buy and hold" kinda enviroment, it's a, buy the dips, and sell the rips kinda environment (for now). the average man - will buy the top out of excitement, and sell the bottom out of fear, a wolf will buy buy the fear, and sell when the average man gets excited. ---- i made this little spx500 post last week, check it out if you missed it: i'm expecting a similar situation to play out on bitcoin. 38,39,40kish ; maybe an overthrow of that region, followed by the final dip down to 22.9\23k later this summer. ---- ps. this is just a theory, don't follow me blindly just because the picture looks pretty. do your own dd + research, and follow Your plan. ✌
Long
by notoriousbids
5
btc 5-30 update ~good morning ~ finally got some action going on after moving sideways for awhile. --- i don't think i've shared my primary count for the local zone down here, just trajectories. so here you are. --- the way i'm seeing this right now, bears got too comfortable, and now the market is going to make them feel uncomfortable. 🐺 never underestimate the bulls, as this is their market at the end of the day bears are just visitors, so they gotta respect the space. eyeing 33k as a potential top (fueled by short liquidations), before another decline into the crypto abyss
by notoriousbids
hidden bearish divergence.btc is printing a pretty hefty hidden bearish divergence on the daily, just what i like to see, after a bullish divergence and a pop lol. pulled like 400% on the pop, and i'm rolling some profits into a short. was hoping for higher prices, but it doesn't look very probable right now. once btc pivots, i reckon it goes down until the next full moon, which is in about 2 weeks --- ps. this dip might be the final phase in the accumulation schematic (aka, the spring phase).
by notoriousbids
6
bullish divergence bitcoin has bullish divergence on various oscillators, as well on numerous timeframes. the one shown here is the daily. bullish volume divergence currently in a daily squeeze. --- the move out of this range will be quite large, likely around 7~10k. it can most certainly go in either direction, but that's what stops are for. --- i'm quite bullish on btc right now, and i will continue to be while the chart looks the way that it does. good chance we're in an accumulation phase, and the mark up phase will begin one of these days. almost expecting a raid of the lows(spring phase) before we pop, but it doesn't have to happen. --- bullish targets are green bearish target is red. have a nice weekend 🍀
Long
by notoriousbids
2
ending\leading diagonal, simplified.this is pretty much the plan, from a simplified perspective. --- an ending, or leading diagonal is a 3-3-3-3-3, which is created within a contracting wedge looking thing. each move consists of 3 waves, labeled as an abc. wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. leading diagonal appears in the beginning ending diagonal appears at the end. which one it is, we won't know until we see what the move up looks like once it has been completed. --- looking for a quick short squeeze to that 33k region, could go a bit higher if things gets heated. after which i think it swoops back down to around 20k to finish this corrective phase.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
10
a completed count.the total crypto market cap suggests that a long term bottom could be in. this doesn't mean that it can't go lower; but history suggests that this could be the bottom. if a bottom is indeed in, we're going to see a significant bull run in the months ahead, which takes the total market cap up to around 4.5 trillion $. --- we're going to need some kind of catalyst to make this happen, and it won't come overnight, but i've started to position myself into longer term holds. still about 80% cash, and i'm ready for lower prices just in case.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by notoriousbids
6
Btc 5-23 updategood afternoon; --- btc looks to be playing out a double combo in this general region. a double combo is a series of three wave moves which are labeled as a w-x-y. each leg in a double combo consists of either an abc, or a wxy. (it could also contain a triangle, but they're a bit more rare). --- i'd be expecting a 3 wave move which takes btc down to around 27.8k to complete wave (x) followed by another 3 wave move which takes us up to 33k to complete wave (y) after which, i do believe it falls off a cliff again. --- the new moon lands on may 30th this month; historically speaking, the new moons have called every single top in this bear market to date. it may have missed one, so 95% accuracy thus far. 👇 --- ps. it's also possible btc simply just dumps it from here, so watch the reaction from the level on my chart. if it starts flipping it to resistance, watch for a move down to around 24k - as talked about in my previous post:
by notoriousbids
4
This idea remains highly probable.If this was to take place, it could be counted as a completed third leg in the wedge which I've been discussing recently. I'm really not satisfied with the price action over this last week; and it really does look to me like a phase of re-distribution -> which is why I've put myself on the sidelines for the time being. Until I can conclusively eliminate this idea, I'll be 100% cash. ---- w5 target = 24k. ---- ps. i have this little indicator which has been calling out every single top in this downtrend. Whenever it clusters the way that it's doing right now, it has led to a fairly large descent in the days which followed. ✌
by notoriousbids
2
btc 5-21 update ~hello's if the spx500 is indeed working on a diagonal, as shared in my last post(view at the bottom of this thread); then i think this is the highest probability path for bitcoin to take. a choppy 3 wave move which goes on for a few weeks, before seeing the final leg down to 22~23k. --- wave 4 could go a bit higher than my current projection, but it would need to maintain the structure of a contracting wedge, and it would also have to get into the territory of wave 2 for it to play out as planned. (i'm able to move the upper portion of the wedge out a bit to rhyme with the 0.50% retracement at around 35k.) will continue to monitor it as the days go by. --- ps. if i'm right about this idea, the corrective phase could come to an end at 22k by the end of july. --- spx500 diagonal 👇
by notoriousbids
1
late night thoughts,🌙 take a peak at this weekly channel: notice all of the points of confluence, and pay attention to how the previous levels of support have turned into resistance levels. now that bitcoin has successfully fallen out of the weekly channel, the lower portion of it has in theory now become a significant level of resistance. order books are stacked to the brim with sell orders all around that little red line. there's a really good chance bitcoin continues to consolidate for awhile before it tests it \ drops lower. keep an eye on the line, it is an important one.
by notoriousbids
3
"The Bear Case Part 2"My previous post was a very optimistic outlook. The market might turn into full savage mode \ not even give the longs a chance to exit their positions, but instead create a massive liquidation event instead. Right now, longs are leveraged at levels unseen before. Historical highs on long leverage. If I was market maker 😏, I'd liquidate every last one of them, just so I could get the best possible price for the next bull run. 😈 Some say buy when everyone is fearful, others say short the ponzi. --- Primary Tech macro 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
9
"The Bear Case"Real quick, If the top is indeed in(which i'm not saying it is), I would expect a decline to around 10k on Bitcoin (could go as low as 3k). The path that it takes to get down there is still unclear, but it will become very clear as more data presents itself. --- I'll be 100% honest with you all, i can care less about which direction the market goes. I make money in either direction, and have 0 attachment to either side. There is an infinite amount of possibilities in the market, and this is just one of thousands. Don't use this post to make any kind of financial decision, for I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions, and approach the market with your own unique strategy. Just because i am bearish right now, does not mean that you too should be bearish. This is merely a theory, based on a hundred different factors that are currently at play in the world. 🥂
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
3
a bearish glancetaking a look at this whole picture from a bearish perspective, just to entertain the idea. looks fairly clean to me, the whole vibe of this downward move. it wants to continue in my opinion. the 4h hidden bear, the triple lower highs, quadruple delta divergence, stacked order book on the sell side; the weak alts. all of it. this might be just a little pitstop for a re-distribution phase before further mark down. --- i'm not saying this is what's going to happen, just entertaining the possibility. ✌
by notoriousbids
1