btc 2-18 update ~good evening,
as this current move unravels, it becomes a lot more clear as to what could potentially be happening here.
after further examination of the entire wave structure from the last few years, i was able to come up with a scenario that i haven't seen anyone else talk about.
i will be sharing it later on down the road, once i am able to further confirm my theory.
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currently i think we have completed wave 3 of the local impulse moving down, and are currently working on a wave 4. (it's also possible wave 4 turns into a flat, or a triangle, in which case it will not reach the target portrayed in my local projection).
wave 5 takes us down closer to 38.5~38.4 to complete the local a-b-c.
once this local move is completed, we should see a fairly nice move up.
BLX
BTC - Where we exactly are? & The next possible Big Moves of BTCWhen you have a Dia formation, and wave "G" has finished, what can be expected afterward (price and time)?
ANSWER :
This is a "high level" question, so if you are not serious about wave theory, don't continue.
The post-pattern action following a Dia is not dependent on the Dia itself (as with most other wave formations), but relies on the larger pattern the Dia concludes. For example, did the Dia end wave-A of a larger Flat or Triangle; was it wave-2, wave-4, wave-x, etc.
In order of priority, these are the things you can expect following wave-G of a Dia. The wave right after wave-G will be larger and faster than any "same direction" leg that occurred during wave-G. Next, if that post-G-wave is also larger and faster than waves-B, D and F within the Dia, then the Dia ends a single leg of a larger formation.
If the move after wave-G is not larger and faster than waves-B, D and F, then an X-wave is probably forming. Otherwise, the Dia will be one leg of a larger, ongoing pattern OR it will be wave-1 or 3 of a Terminal formation.
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So What does it mean ?
It means, We can expect 2 Scenario)
1st: This Dia itself was Wave 1 of an impulse wave (a Huge Terminal Probably) (Low possibility for this scenario)
That's why we are in correction for +280 Days
yes it can be the wave 2 which is happening now
Its not X, Coz X Itself can not be +0.618 of G , but this is
2nd: This Dia itself can be A - ABCDE - of a Triangle (Higher Possibility in my opinion)
In Both Scenarios - We Should count the waves by ABC, not by 12345 - coz Dias are definitely corrective formations. and we are in 2nd wave(for 1st scenario) or B of a Triangle
Which in both case is ABC or ABCDE or whatever xD
If u ask me
this was the End of G (59.9k)
Not the 64.9k
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Some Related ideas
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I ll update this later when the time comes
Whats your opinion for this idea? Agree? or have another Scenario in Mind ? If u want, u can always share it here xD
BTC 2nd Senario , which is less likelyZoom out to see the whole chart first plz.
This is the 2nd Senario for BTC , which is less likely
The first was correction below 30k (The C wave can go below 30k easily then go +80k in long term) (Higher possibility)
The 2nd senario is that we ll have Short C wave which could be a Terminal - then Break out the Trend line and go +50 in the first place very fast (Lower possibility)
Bitcoin last wave 5 inside Main Wave CThis is my Elliott Wave scenario. FLAT ABC is clean. 2 main possible targets i see are the 100% at 32574$ and 24403$ at the 123% Fibonacci. I will post an important chart of historical Bitcoin bear market retracement, you will see that Bitcoin always had retraced on the LOG 0.3 or 0.382.
2\17 Bitcoin Update ~good evening,
we're approaching a critical area down here - this last leg down should mark a local bottom of this 5 wave impulse.
what comes next will be determined based off how it exits this zone.
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if it moves up in a choppy 3 wave move - ez short
if it rockets out of here, well we just hold on for your dear life.
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mean retracement target = 42.8k
if it pushes above with increasing volume - stay tuned for an update 💰
BTC and JNK/TLT ratioI plot BLX (which is BTC) along with JNK/TLT ratio.
JNK/TLT ratio is (Junk Bonds ETF) / (20 year bond ETF ) . This ratio can serve as an indicator, to show if the market is loving risk or loving safety on a macro level. Risk on to risk off ratio. You can see that the JNK/TLT ratio correspond with market bull & bear cycles. Notice the JNK/TLT tops form a trend line, and have some correlation with BTC tops - though not to the exact day or week.
I used the green box to mark a kind of fuzzy area, where the JNK/TLT did not top at the same time as BTC.
Notice the end. Will it touch the trend line as BTC tops out? Or Is it possible it plays out like the green box range, where BTC tops, and the JNK/TLT dances along underneath the trend line a bit further, because the stock market hasn't finished its run yet? Or did BTC top at $69k already? Make your own conclusions. I'm in alt coins. :-))))))
Green lines indicate JNK/TLT tops and red lines JNK/TLT bottoms. I then drew them up to BTC looking for correlation.
I learned this chart from "Game of Trades"
Wave theories , Are they related to Chaos & Relativity Theory ?This this the 4th update
nice, we did it, and now we have LL , but still we can hit 45k 45.5k or even a little higher, hitting higher than 46k is not good for this scenario (shorting)
anyway i m posting again to share something with u about wave theories
First things first, Market is not static, and its not Accidental - it has never been
in wave theories , past, present & future are connected - (kinda related to: Theory of Relativity & Chaos theory)
this means : past waves pattern can make the future waves
at the meantime the next 1 candle even in 1 min timeframe can change the whole past wave patterns and make new ones
i mean 1 candle in the present can change the whole game , past patterns & the next coming ones
But this doesnt mean market is unpredictable
its very clear that if u understand it well, u can predict the every single move right before it happens
But no one can predict the next upcoming 10 moves together
coz of that present 1 candle - which is happening now , and if u could Noticed that one's pattern , yes , the next couple ones is for u
i hope i could explained transferred it well
Quartervois.good evening ~
a quartervois is a crossroad; a critical decision or turning point in ones life.
btc is currently at a critical point, and a big decision will be made in the days ahead.
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i've got 4 projections on my chart here,
3 bring us down to the area between 31~27k
1 takes us up to the area between 48~50k.
the choice is yours.
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full disclosure; i am bearish for now - and have no reason to be bullish until the charts tell me otherwise.
once this final long liquidation event takes place, i'll have a lot of long setups, but until then i am cash \ sniping shorts.
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leg daygood evening ~
my idea remains the same in the mid-term.
looking for a little move down to 28k in the next month or so.
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it's possible we see one more little extension to 48k before this takes place - but only if 41.7k can hold as support.
if btc rips through this key level, there's a good chance the top is in as discussed in my last post, and we will see a bleed down until that larger algo target sub-30k is met.
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>if we do expand to 48k,
>the pullback that follows will dictate bitcorns destiny.
will talk more about this later.
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full send. (primary)follow up to the original thread via 👇
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my bias remains the same despite this little move up.
looking for 29~30k before we see a larger move to the upside.
still adding to my short from yesterday \ sticking to the og plan.
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not financial advice, just a bet against the majority.
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wave 5 target = 29k
Bitcoin bears stepping into a bull swampHello everyone,
nothing special here. I just wanted to mark out the current range as a possible bounce zone for thoose waiting to enter patiently.
Current price bounce expectation supported by MA, VPVVR and price action
ChaChain
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Disclaimer:
I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
KEYWORDS
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btc (bull case).morning,
as btc moves higher and higher out of this range, a bull case surfaces out of the woods.
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If a bottom has been put in, (big if), then we are likely beginning a large 5 wave impulse to the upside.
that impulse would have us coming up above 200k.
it won't go in a straight line, and there will be plenty of opportunity along the way to jump in, so there really is no need to fomo.
my plan, if this continues to develop, would be to patiently allow the first wave to complete, and grab some longs on the wave 2 pull back 💸
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ps. to me, it really doesn't matter which way the market goes, we made a lot of money on the way down, and if it wants to start moving up, we'll easily make even more money on the way up.
ps.2 just know; i'm not saying this is what is going to happen - just an argument against the bear case as of this moment. there is no single path in the market, so expect the unexpected and be ready for any outcome.
best of luck!
"they didn't know"and if you don't know, you will soon.
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here's my completed primary wave count of the entire drop from 68k
i believe we're playing out an ending diagonal for the final wave C of the larger wave (4) of a higher degree.
this final move down sets us up for a massive move up in the year ahead.
looking for 28~29k as a downside target before a move up that takes us closer to 150~200k.
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logarithmic bear fork.this morning we broke out on the linear scale, but the linear scale isn't really something that i care very much about.
i'm a logarithmic trader, and this is my logarithmic bear channel.
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as btc approaches the top of my channel, i'm starting to see signs of weakness.
i'm short from up here unless btc breaks out of this one 🔨
Regresioned EW BNC Index technical analysisNothing special here, just calculated regression (Not manually drawed one of red and green line)
+ some EW´s + MA´s application which seems to be strong to use from long term analysis and mid/long term smart spot trading with reduced risks and still big profits
www.tradingview.com
The best is in my opinion yet to come
ChaChain
-------------
Disclaimer:
I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
KEYWORDS
R:R, money management, risk, reward, technique, style, trading, bitcoin , bitcointrading, profitable trading, profittrading, profit trading, secret, divergence, bull divergence, bear divergence, divergencetrading, divergence trading, trading strategy, how to trade bitcoin , bitcoin trades, bitcoin trading, make profit, take profit, trading strategy, trading technique, successful, successful trader, successful technique, successful strategy, successful secret, how to trade, trend analysis, technical analysis , indicators, rsi , relative strenght index, let it rain, successful life, easy strategy, easy trading, easy technique, make money, crypto investing, investing, crypto, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrencies, mentoring, money, chartart, beyond technical analysis
🌽good evening ~
been pretty much on the sidelines with crypto these last few days - made a few scalps here and there, but nothing more than that.
as the pattern continues to unravel, it looks a bit more clear as to what is happening here.
possibly working on a larger abc\wxy in this local region.
how it fits into the larger count is beyond me, but it's probably some kind of larger wave 4.
also possible it could be turning into a massive leading diagonal (which would be interesting as well).
time will tell as to what this move becomes.
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though, what i do have to say is, i think we find a local bottom around 36k, and make our way up to 42k in the week(s) ahead.
could take awhile, or maybe it moves fast; give it time, and let patience take the wheel.
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wave b target = 36
wave c target = 42
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