The bear case.Bitcoin really needs to hold the line here and not drop anymore. On the smaller time frames we need a move above 53k that holds and then build upon it.
Looking at the volume and price action we could break this support and retest the lower support one more time.
The good news here is the ADX and DI it still shows an uptrend.
BLX
4 year bull trend SUPPORT!!!This cannot be broken if we are to remain bullish IMO!!! The good news is Bitcoin has shown lots of respect to this trendline all the way to the last cycle and was in it's blow off top during the time it spent there.
If you look closely it's the exact same cycle is playing out, it has only greatly lengthened in time.
Looking at this chart it looks like we over corrected with the corona dump which then caused us to over correct back on the up side so it has taken the market time to adjust.
I remain BULLISH!
Best wishes!
"Don't shoot the messenger".My last post in 2021.
----
I've discussed this flat scenario in depth for quite awhile now (view my genesis video for more context).
Believe me, or don't - this is my primary, and the one i've been trading ever since we topped out at the local peak in the upper 60k region recently.
If you've been following along, you've seen my call outs - day after day.
This one is no different.
----
>December 24~25th, Bitcoin will top out in the mid 52k region.
>It will then fall to $36k to complete this larger Wave 4 correction.
>This will satisfy a time balance between the Primary Wave 2 which played out as a Simple Zig-Zag , as well as this primary Wave 4 which is playing out as a Running Flat .
>Once this time balance has been met, we can then begin the final ascension to complete an even larger Wave (3) which will have taken just over 11 years to complete (if it tops out near the end of 2022).
----
Primary Wave 4 target = $36k.
Primary Wave 5 target = $151k.
----
Ps. The majority of the world are going to give back all of the profits they've made over the last few years between now and the beginning of January. They will then be too afraid to buy back into crypto as it'll feel like the end of the world.
>that is when market maker and i become buyers.
Consider this chart my gift to you all,
Happy holidays ♥.
Short term $BTC targeting $57-$61k as next levels to the upsideAs I shared in my last update on $BTC, $BTC ran up without testing some key levels as support and needed to correct down to $46k-48k before it would be able to move higher. Now that that scenario played out I think the same thing needs to happen on the upside. BTC needs to now confirm some levels as resistance before it falls further (IMO).
I think BTC should snap back to the $57k-$61k levels in January and confirm those levels as resistance before it rolls over and ultimately tests at least one of the $30k target(s) on the chart.
However, before I analyze any lower targets and timeframe for that, I want to see some of these upper levels get hit. If BTC moves higher here like I think it will, then it should also provide a short term bounce in the market for alts.
Personally, I'm staying cautious and am not taking any long term positions here, only trades.
Happy holidays.
btc 12-23 update v2one more little scenario here.
just wanted to say, if we push through my box right now, it's going to trigger a mass buying effect from the algos
target for this move is at 55k
i'm still expecting the potential of one more dip (as mentioned in my last post), but if we dont get it
we ride.
i'm in spot here, big time.
1% stop
ps. if we reject current level, refer to my first post:
upside target would be slightly lower, and we'd be able to get a much better entry for the move that is to come.
the final raid is my preferred scenario, but just in case we don't get it, im playing this potential breakout here.
btc 12-23 updatehello,
little update here.
---
going to run with the bull case for now, since everyone and their uncle is bearish & scared.
when the majority are bearish & our indicators line up for a big move to the upside, that is when i become a very aggressive buyer.
---
in my morning video i discussed this long setup in extreme detail, as well as my upside targets; check it out if that's something that interests you.
---
looking to long 47~47.5k
with a tp at around 57k
btc 12-22 update good afternoon peoples,
got a little trade setup to share here -
didn't wanna clutter up the chart with the micro-wave count, so i rather just add it as a screenshot here 👇
--
if i'm right about this count, could snipe a long at the upper bound of the 4h ichimoku cloud, in confluence with the sub-wave 4 target.
numbers are all on the charts.
ps. it's also possible the bottom is in, so if we randomly rip up tonight, it'll most likely push beyond what i have projected on my chart. i'm just looking for conservative numbers whenever i take trades, and i can care less about catching the entire move.
✌
💸
btc 12-21 updategood afternoon o/
btc is in somewhat of a flag up here, getting squeezed between the 100% extension \ the trendline overhead.
a breakout above this trendline would trigger a bunch of algos to start buying btc.
we're also finally above the 4h ichimoku cloud, which has been a massive resistance over the last couple of weeks.
it's looking kinda bullish in my eyes despite the various sell signals that are appearing on my screen today.
i'm going to have to overlook the algorithmic sells during this time \\ and lean bullish until we can break back below the 4h ichimoku cloud.
----
looking for anywhere between 53~57k on this move.
ps. if we start breaking back below the ichimoku cloud, then this move was nothing more than a trap, so do keep an eye out for this key indicator.
BTC Super CyclesI know many of you will not like this idea. It is a pure speculation based on how the different values like time and percentage decline or rise. I know that time is completely impossible to predict, even prices can range dramatically +-1k%, so my purpose is to share my price view as realistic as possible.
Every super cycle consists of two smaller ones. It is hard to get your head around that from 2018-2020 btc was just pausing and moving sideways in a massive range. It was not really a bear market from a supercycle perspective. What took btc 2 months in 2010, it takes almost 3 years right now. Each supercycle takes exponentially longer to play out, percentage gains in each cycle is also declining rapidly in log. fashion:
-1st SC (3608943 %) -- 329 d
-2nd SC (58398 %) -- 742 d
-3rd SC (41981 %) -- 2492 d
based on that percentage decline we could expect 30k% for the 4th one.
Even if BTC falls to 2.5k it would still be above 700k by the end of the supercycle if 30k % is in the cards. It is just that it would quite possibly take 18-24 years (~7k days based on exp. increase).
I expect this bear market to be similar to 2011 where price lost 93%. It is largely because stock market is expected to collapse in 2022 and BTC has never experienced that. Wherever it falls it will eventually rise back up even stronger.
Bear markets between supercycles are also getting lengthened exponentially. Not that fast than bull runs but still they do:
-1st bear market (-93 %) -- 161 d
-2nd bear market (-86 %) -- 406 d
due to having only 2 bear markets between the cycles it is even harder to predict how long it could take for the 3rd one as we don't even form exponential line growth from having only 2 values. Needles to say it is lengthening exponentially so to assume that it can take 3 years for the crash to finish is not completely unrealistic.
Bottoms are also increasing exponentially:
-1st $0.0009
-2nd $2.01
-3rd $163.88
-(4th $2300-$2800)
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Take care.
BITCOIN - A brave new world brought to you by the nerdsBITCOIN - A brave new world brought to you by the nerds
Get used to your new tech overlords. I mean I don't even mind really, seems better than the old guard.
Here we have what everybody is looking at now. 13 or 17. been saying 13 for a while. but i think its prob somewhere in between. some indicators and even simple lines (see the yellow triangle ones, the angle on them) have been painting that picture too. this particular indicator shows the macro momentum is the same as 13.. but some other metrics are showing verrry similar to 17 as well. this is crypto's mania stage chapter beginning to unfold.
Now in 21 we are quite a bit further along with adoption and recognition. some huge companies, rich wigs and even countries now are buying it and using it. p2p decentralized banking is finally showing a hint of itself through defi and some 3rd world countries adopting various platforms to various degrees. crypto has even infected art forms with NFTs. fun times.
Lets see how these two fractals evolve.
glhf
btc 12-20 updategood evening ~
quick update on our bitcorn
---
so it's very possible that the bottom was in on friday evening,
also possible we come down to my original target at 44.6k before starting a little move up to about 57k
if we hold the local golden zone at 46,500 until morning time, i think we'll be able to squeeze out of this local area & see a break out to the upside.
---
ideal scenario:
long 45k
take profit = 57k
BLX Prediction Analysis and where do we go then?Hello, all respected Traders and Investors,
Here I made a simple analysis for BLX Index.
In my opinion, Bitcoin will be dump first to close the CME Gap into 40k and after that, I hope Pump will come..
Critics and comments are super appreciated
Thank you!
Happy trading you all!!
Good luck!
Cheers,
PS: This not financial advice. Please DYOR before entry the market
btc 12-18 update~morning,
just a quick update here.
in my last few posts and videos i talked about a local bottom on the night of the full moon, and a local bottom we got
but we're moving up on decreasing volume right now, with no real conviction
which leads me to believe there might be one more leg down to go in this general area.
i'd be looking for anywhere between 44.6~42k for this final dip (if it was to happen).
------
key levels to pay attention to are: 48k. if we could successfully push through this level, the next big zone would be at 49.3k - get through that and it opens the door for a larger move up to (53~57k).
----
i've stated very clearly this morning that i'm not exiting anything i picked up yesterday, simply moved my stops up into profit.
if stopped, i still won on the trades, and i could simply buy them back at the next window of opportunity.
have a great weekend peoples, and trade safe!
Bitcoin 12-17 update👋
this morning we were greeted with a nice flush on the spx500, which took bitcorn down with it ~
i'm sticking to my original plan from the other day (you can see it via this post 👇)
>longing the local golden zone at 44.6k with a 1.6% stop
>if stopped out, i'll try again at the 0.786 at 42.8k
>if stopped out, i'll try again at the 0.887 41.8k
things might get heated today with quad witching - stay safe out there & expect the unexpected.
💸
if you know, you know 👇
btc 12-17 update pt.2 (🛑)good afternoon, quick update here
-----
we're hanging off the edge of a cliff right now, barely clinging on to the daily 200 simple moving average.
btc must close a daily candle above this level, otherwise things can get ugly very quickly.
-----
i mentioned in my last posts update, as well as on twitter that i have cancelled all of my long orders, simply because something just doesn't feel right.
i always follow my intuition when it comes to doing anything in life, and this is one of those moments.
if it drops from here, watch 37k as the next big volume shelf, if that level fails to hold, we will hit my 34k level (as mentioned in one of my posts from yesterday)
and if we go that low, there's nothing stopping it from going even lower, to a place many would prefer not to even think about - myself included.
-----
stay safe out there peoples, use stops if trying to trade this in either direction.
as for me, i'm cash until a direction is chosen.
have a nice weekend ✌
btc 12-15 update pt.2good afternoon,
keeping this real simple.
------
solid traps today for both the long and short side.
i think we're going to see one final trap before we rise.
i'm sticking with my downside target which sits in the local golden zone at 44.6k.
that is the only area i'd be willing to long (safely).
-----
long 44.6
🎯 57.1
💸
btc 12-14 update pt.2good evening,
that was a fun long, jumped out near the top of that last wick.
>now it's time for the second part of my plan.
>If i'm right about this, we should reject the area at 49k, and fall to around 44k by the 18th of december to complete the final part of this complex corrective structure.
the bottom could very well be in, but i am sticking to my original plan.
----
short - 48,914
🛑- 49,444
take profit - 44,000
----
Bitcoin (BLX) - Weekly Chart - Support, Resistance, TrendlineBitcoin (BLX) - Weekly Chart - Support, Resistance, Trendlines (2011 to 2021):
Potential Weekly Double-Top Bearish Price Pattern forming on Bitcoin (BLX).
-Resistance Price Level (red horizontal box above current price)
-Support Price Levels (grey horizontal lines below current price)
-Trendline Resistance (diagonal yellow line above current price)
-Trendline Support (diagonal yellow line below current price)
note: chart is on log scale.
btc 12-14 updategood afternoon peoples,
talked about this scenario in my video from yesterday, but we've made a slight diversion overnight.
labeling this diversion as a wave X, which is pretty much a failed impulse.
now it doesn't have to fail, and it's possible that the bottom is indeed in, and we're going to begin the highly anticipated move up from here to that 57~60k region, but something tells me there's going to be one final shake out before this can take place.
---
taking a long down here in the local golden zone with a 1% stop is my plan for this setup.
only looking to take this up to about $48,500 before re-assessing my plan.
if it looks good for continued upside, i'll hold on & ride this up as high as it's willing to go.
---
full moon on the 18th + winter solstice next week are extremely bullish for crypto, but there's still time before we get there; which is why i think this little move up here will be short lived, and it will be sold off into like there's no tomorrow.
stop loss is your friend, once we start moving up, move them stops up as we go.
best of luck !
💸
btc 12-13 update v2.good evening peoples,
today was a wild card, but it was also expected. talked about this exact dip that took place today in my video from yesterday. i've posted a new video this evening going over this new setup in full detail - feel free to check it out.
--
there's a 50% chance that the bottom is indeed in, but a few hints on a few other charts tell me otherwise.
usdt.d 👇
--
total crypto market cap 👇
--
i'm looking for a move down to the -0.236 algo target at $44,900 which will complete the final phase of sub-wave wave x.
we have the golden zone just below this algo, so do expect a wick to get down there. easy fill if you're ready for it.
--
looking for a move up to around 57~63k after for the next phase of this complex corrective wonder.
💸