If Bitcoin is in a bear... How low could it go?The truth is that currently 1) BTC has tested the 300 DMA almost twice and 28-31k more than 5 times which makes support weaker 2) It has lost the 200 DMA 3) It lost its 42k Jan ATH and it turned back into resistance 4) Usually when a correction is larger than usual it means it is over. We went from 20-31% corrections to 55% which is not good. There are other things too, but these are the key ones.
Below I have tons of charts based on where we could be heading. Usually 70-80% corrections are more than enough for this to be over, and it could dip very very quickly. This doesn't have to be a very long bear market, however due to the amount of leverage in the market it is possible that we have a major crash and then slowly go back up. Usually in the bear markets the market usually goes all the way down to the key untested levels (you can call the gaps, voids, inefficiencies or whatever you want). But most of the time these act like magnets and as support when the price visits those levels.
We can see how Bitcoin has reacted in all the previous bull markets. In 2014 it pulled back below its April 2013 high and tested some levels there and at the April 2013 crash it revisited multiple untested levels. In 2018 we didn't have many of those so it was a different bear market, but in 2019-2020 we had a drop down to 6400 which was very important and then crash down to 3.8k. 3.8-4.2k was a very important level because it was where the run up begun + was a massive resistance that turned into support + S1 pivot + Volume profile high volume node + 234 week moving average (1638 DMA) which was also the bottom twice in 2014-2015. The last one is a very important moving average along with the 200 WMA (1400 DMA) from which the price has never really closed below in on a weekly timeframe.
Now most gaps on CME on the actual chart are at - 24k, 20k, 17.5-19k (gaps only) and the best area which tons of support because of old resistance levels, the weekly moving averages and being 80% below the ATH is 12-14k. So if this is more like a mix of June 2019 and April 2013, we could expect to see the price go that deep.
In my opinion Bitcoin is already undervalued, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like the Boeing chart. Big drop, flush all the leverage and then go much much higher. The thing this time around is that we went too high too fast in a very weird way as retail, companies and institutions rushed in but the whole market was in a weird state with Covid, QE and so on. Maybe the bottom is in and if we go above the 200 DMA I will become bullish again... but until then I am cautious because this looks more bearish than bullish.
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