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BTC new Elliot Wave 1 thru 5 market has started!I have recently published an idea that we could be in wave B of a ABC correction, where the C wave would have a very violent downtrend, anywhere from 11k to 3k for BTC final wave. But looking closer at the charts and going back to the books, it has come to my attention that, a B wave on a ABC pattern, can too go above the wave A initial, or top of wave 5! To recognize a wave C we need to look for that 1,2,3,4,5 down pattern. That is exactly what we had with something that began looking like a double top, but it was actually correction waves A and B. So after wave B went above the prior top, wave C had a 1 thru 5 pattern. I do believe we are now part of wave 3 minor, of this major wave 1 in a new bull cycle! My opinion is that if we get a extended 1.618 wave 3 to 75k, we will get a reverse wave 4, that its measure could indicate what the final BTC top. By measuring wave 4 retrace, and having a target of -1.236 or -1.618. Please feel free to share your own opinion. Thank you
BNC:BLXLong
by silva1320
3
DXY May Signal Next Crash Across Stock and Crypto MarketsWithin the four panels above are comparisons of major US market and the international Bitcoin indices with the US Dollar Index, $TVC:DXY. From top left to right: TVC:DJI SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX BNC:BLX As we can plainly see, each one acts a a near mirror image going back to 2017. When looking at correlation via an indicator, like Correlation Coefficient, we would see regular swings from negative to positive on various timeframes and settings. Yet, when viewing both indices over the years as shown above, there are several observations: it becomes clear that there is a macro negative correlation between the dollar index and these major stock and crypto indices. There is also a consistent tendency for both to correct and eventually meet near the middle and/or see a crossover to the other side. Strong opposing reactions occur between these valleys of one meet or cross with peaks of the other (meeting in the middle or crossing), and when peaks of one drift furthest apart from valleys of the other. DXY often reaches local highs or lows prior to these market indices reaching lows or highs, or vice versa. One can act to forward indicate the direction of the other. It's certainly possible that any of these markets could instead signal DXY's next move, or even move together at the same time with it (both of which have occurred before and even in cases on the chart above). However, there has been a pattern since 2017 of DXY making local highs or lows prior to the indices above making their local lows or highs, at least when leading up to major spikes in DXY and crashes in markets, bringing them nearer to the middle. Should DXY move up and back above 105-106 and then 112, and continue, it may signal the end of these recoveries we've been seeing over the last year, and could point to crashes across markets. My present theory is that we may see something like double-tops with slightly higher or slightly lower highs, across many of these markets, and as DXY ranges between 101-106. This, leading to a breakout of that range and a move back above 112. Should DXY turn down hard instead, we may see extended recoveries and new ATHs until it bounces again off monthly support and heads back up. Many of the stock indices shown above are already near double-tops with potentially a bit more room to run up. Bitcoin hasn't yet caught up and has a lower weekly RSI, so it may be the last one to make a strong recovery before we see a downturn. *** related ideas linked in the related ideas section **** Thank you for reading! -dudebruh :)
TVC:DJI
by dudebruhwhoa
BITCOIN - Clarification of the Expected Moves Ahead...In my previous video, I initiated the initial stages of planning for some upcoming trades using AriasWave, which allows me to anticipate market movements at specific junctures. Now that we've analyzed the intricacies of this extensive zig-zag pattern, I'm able to present a variety of trade ideas for the upcoming moves. Rather than overwhelming you with ideas that may not align with our objectives, I've patiently awaited the right signals that indicate we now have a solid foundation to work from. I'm just beginning to explore these new concepts for this very reason. If my assessment of our current position is accurate, these trades should be relatively straightforward to execute. It's time to put these ideas into actionable trading opportunities, and the results will speak for themselves.
by AriasWave
4
Next bull market starts by March 2023Hi fellow cryptopians and crypto enthusiasts. I am going to make a fairly bold claim here today. First off we have a bitcoin hash ribbon buy signal quickly approaching us (within two weeks) which could pump us to 50k. If this does happen it should be followed by a correction that gets boring for 4 to 5 months and should spark the new bull run by march 2023 the latest. This analysis should not be taken as financial advice as it's just for fun but lets follow and see where it leads. Having said all that I do believe the bottom is in and we are a very strong accumulation until march or mid next year. * Patience is key to success*
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
4
BTC is a possible outcome!!!Why do I think so? According to one version, the growth ended at 68944.62 with the fifth wave according to Elliott's theory, from the entire movement of Bitcoin since 2010! The price is lowered to the level of 15495.37, which may be the first wave Adjusted by 31799.86 (second wave) And it can give a third wave to the new Global zone 7577.63-3629.76 By making the current Global Zone a zone of Control at the highest TF According to the second version, the fifth wave ended in December 2017 and was corrected in three waves into a triangle! Then From the current control zone we can go to the level of 48191.03 Or give a correction deeper at 22140.02 and from there it will go to the level of 48191.03 And then HIGHER!!! I will attach a global screen!!!
BNC:BLX
by InHoldOut
BTCUSD Logarithmic Growth Trend: 155k Max By Mid 2025 Hello all! It has been awhile since i posted, for good reason! It has been a very boring time within the market (as expected). We are currently in this transition phase between bear to bull market, its the time where everyone walks away filled with fear (bottom of cycle) Save this chart... You'll never look at a "BTC" rainbow chart again. This either works or it doesn't. BTC has followed very distinct cycles since its inception These cycles have been dictated by each halving (as shown) When looked at on a logarithmic chart, two indisputable lines can be drawn (tops and bottoms), there are no other ways to draw these lines and each top and bottom has perfectly touched them This creates a logarithmic curved growth area where BTCs priced has always stayed between Using this model, BTC should top out around 155k in mid 2025 & in the bear market that follows, it shouldn't break below 70k. We will continue to reference this going forward but main takeaway, the macro picture is still perfectly in tact and BTC is moving as it should, with room to move down to 20k This is the time to build and GET READY for what's to come Don't lose sight, the green grass looks to be right around the corner! Please comment and like!
BNC:BLX
by traderview2
3
Unbelievable linear drop When wave 2 is about time wave 4 is about depth and vice versa, this is likely to happen Wave 2 corrected 38 percent of wave 1 and 50 percent of wave 3 is 370$, it is not my fault that this number is on the 0.5 level I got no road map and i just wait for development of waves, there is a long way to go ... I will be cautious about my indications when the price is on the 0.38 of the third wave The logic is simple but unbelievable If you know books about golden mean and elliot wave then introduce me Patience is virtue of kings
BNC:BLXLong
by UnknownUnicorn10828932
1
Andrews' Pitchforks are FunHere's an example of a pitchfork drawn on the 2 weekly BNC:BLX chart, measured from the March 2020 low to the Nov 2021 high and completed at the Nov 2022 low, and then extended in direction and levels (up to 9 levels can be added). The chart above makes for a solid example of how pitchforks can be used to derive a trend or channel and find solid support and resistance levels within it. They are also just fun to work with! There are several types of pitchforks which can be tested until you've found one that works best for your chart. They are called Andrews' Pitchforks because they were originally developed by Alan Andrews, with several derivatives created by modifying calculation for the placement of the pitchfork's handle (the slope of its median line): Normal Pitchfork - Andrews' original pitchfork tool. Schiff Pitchfork - moves start of the handle line halfway to the base of the channel. Modified Schiff Pitchfork - handle start is adjusted by a distance equal to half the difference between price values of its first two points (first low and high, or first high and low) of three. Inside Pitchfork - handle adjusted to half of the vertical & half of the horizontal distance between the first two points of three. In the example above, I chose a Modified Schiff Pitchfork , and then identified 3 points of consecutive highs and lows. In this case: low -> high -> low. You can choose to do the opposite of this and start from high -> low -> high, typically your first point should represent the beginning of a new trend. Play around with trying this in different timeframes, and also try editing / adding / removing levels. You can try basic levels at increments of 25% or by utilizing classic Fibonacci levels (or both, as shown above). Pitchforks are a type of Fibonacci tool, so I like using classic Fib levels. You could just use the Fibonacci Channel tool and get a similar result. But, the nice thing about utilizing a pitchfork is that it can help you identify a channel that may not be immediately obvious. Here is another example of using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork to derive trends on a popular altcoin, BINANCE:HBARUSD : Thanks for reading, I hope this was helpful to you. I learned more about pitchforks myself while working on this, and encourage others to do the same!
BNC:BLXEducation
by dudebruhwhoa
Observing Bitcoin's UptrendsEach time Bitcoin has entered an uptrend, it eventually reaches a new ATH and then loses the uptrend about a year or so later, and the begins a new and weaker uptrend. Its first uptrend was lost about 2-3 months following its ATH, and the 2nd and 3rd ATH failed to re-test the bottom of that trend. When the 2nd uptrend was lost, the next ATH perfectly re-tested the bottom of that trend before dropping and ultimately losing it. *** This time is not like the others *** Within approx 5 months of losing the red uptrend shown above (its 3rd uptrend), Bitcoin reclaimed it for another 5 months or so. Then it lost it a second time; eventually testing the bottom of the current or 4th uptrend during the March 2020 black-swan event and briefly wicking below it. Following the black-swan, Bitcoin moved up to reclaim the red uptrend a second time; in a little under a year. Again, remaining above it for a little over 4 months. After two attempts to reclaim the 3rd uptrend, it fell back below, re-testing the bottom of it, and then moving back down to our present uptrend. What is also different this time, is that it has held the current uptrend twice after having attempted to reclaim the previous one. It ha also held the current uptrend for longer than any previous - for a little over 4.5 years. The previous two were held for a little over 3 years. Will we see one last weaker push towards the bottom of the red trendline before finally losing the current one?
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
The Bitcoin Halving Cycle 2024The occurrence of a Bitcoin halving event refers to a significant reduction, usually every four years, in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners. Historical data and the Bitcoin price chart reveal distinct patterns of how the halving event impacts the value of Bitcoin, leading to the formation of what is known as the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Bitcoin Halving Cycle is visually represented in the chart above, which showcases a log-scale weekly candlestick chart depicting the price of Bitcoin. This chart highlights the consistent pattern of the three distinct phases, namely the bull market, bear market, stagnation/recovery period or range and accumulation phase, that occur within each cycle. Within the depicted chart, different coloured boxes symbolise specific market phases. The light green box signifies the bull market, while the red box represents the bear market. The yellow box indicates the recovery phase. Inside the yellow box, three additional boxes are displayed. The blue box represents the initial accumulation stage following the bear market. The lime green box signifies a period of expansion, and the orange box represents a subsequent ranging period, which can be viewed as a second stage of accumulation. Analysing the Bitcoin price chart, we can observe that a typical Bitcoin halving cycle on average unfolds as follows: a one and half year bull market, followed by a one-year bear market, and finally a one and half year period of stagnation (range and accumulation). Bitcoin is currently in its fourth halving cycle, and can be considered in the ranging and accumulation cycle. During these stages of the cycle in Bitcoin's history, price has reached its 0.786 fibonacci retracement at least once when measuring this from the peak of the bull market stage to the trough of the Bear cycle. (blue horizontal line) If history rhymes, Bitcoins's price has the potential to reach $52,000 USD from now or until the next halving date.
BNC:BLXLong
by Kinoko_zoku
3
Potential for a Pull-back as it Correlates with DXYIf you've seen my other posts about this - Bitcoin has clear negative correlation with DXY. You could pull up the Correlation Coefficient indicator and make an argument that it correlates positively just as often as it does negatively, but when you compare the charts with each other, nearly every peak corresponds with a valley vs. the other and vice versa. They are typically offset by some period of time if not at the same time. Also, try setting CC length to 35 and it provides a more clear picture of its long-term correlation. Presently, Bitcoin looks like an inverse head and shoulders re-testing its neckline. Meanwhile, DXY looks like a head and shoulders with a pullback that hasn't quite reached the highs of its right shoulder. Also, each shoulder and head of both head and shoulders have eventually corresponded with each other, in opposite directions, and Bitcoin has yet to have made a pullback. However, it may skip the pullback altogether should DXY continue down and move back below ~98-101. Or, DXY could instead move up above ~105-106 leading to pattern failure on both, and a strong uptrend on DXY / strong downtrend on BTC. Let's see what happens next! Please see my related posts below in the links to related ideas. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
3
The panpanXBT Bitcoin risk IndicatorHi Fellow Traders and Investors, Today, I want to look into this brand new hot off the presses indicator, THE BITCOIN RISK. The focus of this indicator is the risk levels of bitcoin in real time. It's color coded and fairly straight forward and simple. it's best use is for long term investors not so much for day trading. It can be coupled with other indicators to make confluence and confirmation. for example the RSI and this indicator are very powerful when coupled together from what I have seen. As we can see it is still very early in the bull run and still a very good time to be making purchases. How accurate this indicator will be going forward? Unfortunately, only time will tell, as I'm fairly sure it's been retro fit in some way to work. I have no affiliation with the creator and have no personal gain. I found this indicator, was granted use of it and found it useful, so, I am passing it along. If you are interested in it, you have to get a hold of the creator. Down below is an overview in the words of the creator. Here is a quick explanation from the creator himself... Here's a quick overview of what the model is based on and how it can provide value: "The panpanXBT Bitcoin Risk Metric is powered by regressing 'fair value' data. The errors are adjusted to account for diminishing returns using a fitted exponential curve. The result is a channel that Bitcoin price has historically bounced between. Users can quickly identify periods of extreme under and overvaluation, which could present great investing opportunities."
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
3
Bitcoin's roadmap to $300,000 | 2023 to 2025Once the $40,000 ceiling is breached in Q4 2023, it will be a straight road to $100,000 within 6 to 10 months. The bitcoin halving of April 2024 will come and go. A major correction will only be after a top of $100K to $150K around mid-to late 2024. This will be followed by a mini-bear market / correction to the previous ATH of $60Ks. This correction won't last longer than a year, ending with a push into the high $200,000s or even touching $333,333.33 by the end of 2025. Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
Fib levels confirm next Bitcoin cycle top in mid-2025Focusing on the Fib wedge here, it can be seen that each Fibonacci level has marked Bitcoin's top so far. 1. The zero point of the fib wedge is exactly where BLX price starts from at around $0.05 in 2010 2. The first fib level 0.236 marked the top around $30 in 2011 3. The second fib level 0.382 marked the top around $1100 in 2014 4. The third fib level 0.618 marked the top around $20,000 in 2017 5. The fourth fib level 0.786 marked the top around $66,000 in 2021 These are FIVE points of reference with pin-point accuracy. Not "by chance" or "coincidence". Therefore, it is only fair to assume that the 6th one, which also completes this fib wedge being the final level of 1.0 on the fib wedge, is going to mark the next cycle top as well. A highly conservative top would be around $150,000 while a more realistic target seems to be around $200,000 to $250,000 . On the other hand, a highly optimistic target is around $300,000. Also inferring from the chart an approximate time-point can be seen of mid-2025 for the next BTCUSD cycle top. A mid-cucle top of $120,000 to $150,000 in mid 2024 is also possible. The important thing to remember is fib level 1.0 around mid-2025. How the price gets there is anyone's guess. === Sidenote: The series of 5 side-by-side fib retracements each are set as follows: - 0 marks the top of each cycle - 1 is aligned with the bottom of the cycle immediately preceding it The resulting congruence among the retracements and their harmony with each other is astounding. === Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
1
DXY and BTCUSD patternsThe Dollar Index (DXY) is generally considered to be inversely proportional to Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This chart shows many other similarities that can be noted when overlaying BLX (orange) on the DXY chart (blue). The biggest takeaway with reference to Bitcoin's price movements is that it's possible, contrary to the popular belief of 4-year cycles, that BTCUSD is not following a strict timeline. Rather it seems Bitcoin price has expanded in 2 phases since inception, with 2 cycle tops in each phase (these 3 phases are marked by the time range bars at the very bottom). Given this data, it is possible that the next bitcoin (hence, crypto) top will be around mid-2025. Furthermore, since there are 2 tops in each phase, the approximate time range for the cycle top after that could be around late 2028. Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution.
INDEX:DXY
by Sikbh
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Head And Shoulders Above The Rest...In this video, we build upon the previous Bitcoin post, diving deeper into the count and potential correction unfolding. I share my thoughts on the possibilities of how the current wave could form, starting with an understanding of corrective pattern formation. Using the previous waves as a guide, we explore the general observed patterns, leveraging the concepts allowed by AriasWave. When dealing with variables, there is no preferred count. Instead, we focus on the factors afforded by the thought process driven by the methodology. In support of this idea, we discuss the $168 retracement, which aligns with a similar length measure down from the neckline. This analysis suggests that the price won't reach zero, as that outcome appears less likely. However, if the price approaches this level, it will indicate extreme market psychology driven by the prevailing narrative at that time. As always, it's important to remember that these predictions are not exact, but rather a form of envisioning made possible by understanding the concepts embedded within AriasWave. By exploring different scenarios and factors, we gain insights into potential outcomes and the psychological dynamics at play in the markets. Join me in this video as we delve into the intricacies of the current wave formation, examining the patterns and narrative shaping Bitcoin's journey. Through the lens of AriasWave, we gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and the possibilities that lie ahead. Disclaimer: All predictions are subject to change as new information emerges, and individual analysis should be conducted alongside this discussion.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
5
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Your Account Will Hold You Accountable...Join us on this video journey as we explore the significance of AriasWave in delivering the best wave analysis. By understanding the count for Bitcoin, we uncover the intriguing nature of corrections, which can be either lengthy or deep, showcasing the concept of alternation emphasized by Elliott. However, AriasWave takes wave analysis to new heights. Critics who hold a negative opinion of AriasWave analysis must recognize that they are potentially opposing the successful side of the trade. Our methodology is the result of eight years of meticulous backtesting, thoughtful analysis, and a comprehensive collection of all counts presented on this channel. The multitude of variations seen over the past two years is a testament to the preparation for AriasWave's entrance into the mainstream. Today, we stand at the pinnacle of our journey, armed with deep counts that shape the future of AriasWave methodology. The same clarity and depth I bring when speaking is mirrored in my analytical posts, contributing to the growth and success of AriasWave. Moving forward, our analysis will be based on the preferred counts before March 2023, marking the completion of extensive testing. This grants us a range of options to proceed, while ensuring that we consistently provide you with the real count based on AriasWave and our final determinations. Any count adjustments will be minimal, mostly occurring at small degrees. Join us as we navigate the fascinating world of wave analysis, driven by AriasWave's proven methodology and unwavering commitment to delivering accurate and insightful analyses.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
Growth/Losses of All Altcoins Excluding Eth vs. BitcoinHere's a look at major peaks and valleys in Bitcoin and Total3 (total altcoin market excluding Ethereum) starting from the Dec 2017 peak until now. First, a key to follow along: Key: - Solid Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys occurring during the same week or day between both markets - Dotted Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys where dates deviate between the two markets Traditionally peaks and valleys have happened around the same time, sometimes with minor deviation where altcoin market's peak or valley occurs shortly after Bitcoin's, if not on the same week or day, and altcoins as a whole have typically shown stronger losses than Bitcoin from peak to valley, in the past. After the 2017/18 peaks, Total3 lost more, in less time, than Bitcoin. It peaked a few weeks later and then bottomed on the same week. More recently, that deviation has grown in length and changed in scope. Here's how: March 2020 low through the April/May peak: --Total3 moved stronger and for longer (by just under a month) than Bitcoin. It typically does move stronger, but moves tend to end nearer to each other than what happened here. November 2021 ATH to our most recent ATL: -- Despite many alts having steeper losses than Bitcoin, as a whole Total3 lost approximately 3% less than Bitcoin and its valley occurred 6 weeks after Bitcoin's. In this case, it moved weaker than Bitcoin and has shown the longest deviation in the time it took to do so. About a month ago, around April 13th, Bitcoin made a new local high. Altcoins haven't yet followed. Interesting, right? That said, we still don't know for sure whether Bitcoin is headed towards a new peak or a new valley. Let's see how this plays out.
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
33