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Briz Trololo Lines Logarithmic Regression - Bitcoin Halvings Using logarithmic (non-linear) regression curve Trololo Lines to forecast the BTC (BLX 1D) price range, and it's trend within the range - based on previous trends influenced by the halving every four years. Not as exciting as Stock-to-Flow models, but pretty close up until 2023 when Stock-to-Flow launches from 100k in 2023 towards 1 million in 2025 (not shown) - Trololo Lines say otherwise. If BTC price bust 100K by 2021 and stay above it, then I may negate the Trololo Lines - but until then, this chart will be my guide (NFA).
BNC:BLX
by MattBriz
10
BLX Bitcoin (Bullish Case For Long Term?)BLX TA Update Bitcoin finished it strong after regaining back above the 200W MA today and trading above the last trendline of support. There is still hope for the bulls, as long as the price action will remain above the bearish territory within 3-4 weeks, there is a chance this potential head of the Inverse H&S pattern will get the opportunity to become a reality if and only if Bitcoin climbs above 7k next month. Bearish side, if BTC closes below 4k and finds the 200W MA as resistance. This will invalidate all bullish cases for BTC for a longer period.
BNC:BLXLong
by PolarHusk
2
Fair & Real Bitcoin price part 1.Hello my dear crypto maniacs, Anoinvest with Fair & Real BTC price chart here. I´ve recieved some questions like: " Man what is the real Bitcoin price, will we see 3K again ? " past days and it is really hard to answer it completly but what I can say is, that I really doubt we will see prices sub 6K anytime soon (This or next year) Buying a bitcoin is different than purchasing a stock or bond because bitcoin is not a corporation. Consequently, there are no corporate balance sheets or Form 10-Ks to review. And unlike investing in traditional currencies, bitcoin it is not issued by a central bank or backed by a government, therefore the monetary policy, inflation rates, and economic growth measurements that typically influence the value of currency do not apply to bitcoin. Contrarily, So what Determines the Price of 1 Bitcoin ? I would say it is influenced by the following factors: 1) The supply of bitcoin and market demand for it 2) The cost of producing a bitcoin through the mining process 3) The rewards issued to bitcoin miners for verifying transactions to the blockchain 4) The number of competing cryptocurrencies 5) The exchanges it trades on 6) Regulations governing its sale 7) Its internal governance What do we have in the chart is mostly 2nd point visualization and I think it matters a lot because set yourself this question If you are a miner ... Would you stay in business and keep mining if you are in loss ? Without miners will there be a funcion Bitcoin blockchain ? The green line shows Bitcoin electricity production cost over the time so we can call it support and area of retailers interest or biggiest buy opportunity as well meanwhile Red line shows Total Bitcoin production cost over the time so we can call it resistance and area of Miners sell interest or biggiest sell opportunity. The lines are set based on average electricity cost USD Kwh and % of Electricity To Total Mining Costs & white zone is the Plot BTC (Close + Transaction Fee Revenue / BTC) What is the conclusion? It looks like the price is below the production cost and miners mine in loss (Its averaged ! Not every country have the same electricity costs) But based on this + if you take in consider the upcoming Bitcoin halvening as well as the S2F spike up then I would say Bitcoin is underpriced right now and should see a massive grow in upcoming months. I hope you found this chart helpfull and will answer you the set question to me. If you found data and this TA overall interesting at least I would appriciate hitting the like button. Feel also free to leave up the comments or questions if you are in doubts. Cheers. ************************************************************** DATA TEXT IN CHART FOR LOW RESOLUTION USERS ************************************************************** Total Bitcoins in circulation: 18,256,038 Total Bitcoins to ever be produced: 21,000,000 Percentage of total Bitcoins mined: 86.93% Total Bitcoins left to mine: 2,743,963 Total Bitcoins left to mine until next blockhalf: 118,963 Market capitalization (USD): $166,288,768,776.25 Bitcoins generated per day: 1,800 Total blocks: 620,483 Blocks until mining reward is halved: 9,517 Total number of block reward halvings: 2 Approximate block generation time: 10.00 minutes Approximate blocks generated per day: 144 Difficulty: 15,486,913,440,293 Hash rate: 111.54 Exahashes/s More about the Stock 2 Flow: Do you wonder how to determinate the reversal points ? Try my divergence method my profile is full of these :) ------------- Disclaimer: I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
BNC:BLXLong
by Anoinvest
7
BLX Bullish AlligatorFirst alligator post, let me know if there is anything wrong! Focusing primarily on the bullish swings of the alligators jaws, we can see recently the alligator is ready to eat.. The alligator is 'sleeping' when there is little price action and a stagnant price is the result. A higher low is also present. I know this is a slight repost but i thought the alligator aspect of BLX was cool. Im going to try make more of these posts based on the success rate. Upsides expected.
BNC:BLX
by Bixley
BTCUSD: Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 YearsThe Hash Ribbons indicator confirmed it's 10th buy signal in 9 years yesterday on the Daily chart at $7,245. Historically, this indicator has given the best opportunities for long-term investment during accumulation phases. The 3 Day chart is also signalling a buy, confirmation would arrive tomorrow with the close of the current candle. The Weekly chart however, that has been flirting with "hash recovery" this week, has been unable to maintain this MA bull-cross for now, while the Monthly remains in capitulation phase. No confluence yet on longer-term time-frames, but the Daily chart confirms enough for me. Daily chart (2011-2015): Signals (2011-2013): $4.08, December 27th 2011 (1) $5.09, May 20th 2012 (2) $6.46, June 22nd 2012 (3) $20.55, February 2nd 2013 (4) Daily chart (2015-2019) Signals (2015-2019): $234, January 28th 2015 (5) $234, May 2nd 2015 (6) $238 May 28th 2015 (7) $612, September 4th 2016 (8) $3652, January 11th 2019 (9) $7245, December 27th 2019 (10) Average of 1 buy signal per year in the past 9 years. Only 2 buy signals have now occurred in the past 2 years. 3 Day chart: Weekly chart: Signals (2011-2019): $5.28, December 26th 2011 (1) $6.35, June 18th 2012 (2) $23.80, February 4th 2013 (3) $227, January 26th 2015 (4) $231, May 25th 2015 (5) $3533, January 7th 2019 (6) Average of 1 buy signal every 18 months in the past 9 years. 1 signal has occurred in the past 3 years, another is clearly due. Monthly chart: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
BNC:BLXLong
by dragononcrypto
3
BTCUSD: Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-$8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year. This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above $14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021. See related analysis: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate As well as bearish analysis: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dragononcrypto
Dragononcrypto 3 Month Graphical ReviewIn order to promote accountability and transparency, here is a collation of all the BTC/USD calls I have made in the past 3 months. Note that some where on smaller time frames than the Daily (that is used in this graphic), such as the 1hr and 4hr, but otherwise remain relevant to the review. Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org Technical Analysis Highlights September-December 2019 Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crosses Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction? Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low If Bitcoin Repeats History? Descending Triangle Looking Similar
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by dragononcrypto
Bitcoin's long way to the one million dollar price level!!!I expect a big price explosion in bitcoin , it will rise until one million dollar!!! In this year the ezb wants introduce - interest on all bank asset and people lose trust in the banks!!! The FED will reduce the interest and want bring in range zero!!! In next year comes the brexit come and destory the european economy and bitcoin will rise as first to 110.000$ after one year bear market and at the comes the second wave to 1.000.000$ in dec/2021 or feb/2022!!! I am absolutly longterm investor in bitcoin, that is the bottom!!!
BNC:BLXLong
by Darkwebtrader007
BTCUSD: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To AccumulateBitcoin has now entered the accumulation phase between the 2 & 4 Year MA's, represented by the 730 & 1460 MA's. As highlighted in green, this investment strategy has historically been the best tie to accumulate BTC for the long-term 4-year cycle, for 2014/2015, as well as 2018/2019. The forecasted extrapolation is merely an example of where the price may consolidate in the coming months, but is far from a price target. The reference here is the accumulation phase is currently between $4650 and $7750, which may last only a matter of weeks, but historically lasts for a considerable amount of time, such as in 2014-2015 where there was an 11-month period of price consolidation and therefore accumulation. Time to BTFD. Related bearish shorter-term analysis confirming lower lows to come: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Also see Parts of Bitcoin repeating history TA series for bearish analysis:
BNC:BLXLong
by dragononcrypto
2
BTCUSD: Extrapolating the 50 & 200 Day MA bear crossesPart 10: It's time to talk about the bear cross that was confirmed yesterday, the 50 Day MA crossing the 200 Day MA. 3 out of 4 of Bitcoin's bear crosses have been bearish long-term indicating a further 50% drop in price (2012, 2014 and 2018). In the shorter-term, Bitcoin also twice rallied by 50% in two of these occasions (2014 and 2015) before continuing higher or falling back down. Only 1 out of 4 of these cases it came at the end of the bear market, in 2015. Here are the current statistics and visual representation of the bear crosses: 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2018. Extrapolating these bear crosses to the current bear cross suggests the following: 75% probability of reaching the descending triangle breakdown target of $6,410 75% probability of dropping a further 50% before the block halving 50% probability of rallying further to $12,000 by the end of October 50% probability of double bottom at $3,200, specifically in July 2020 25% probability of breaking above $9,410 and never coming back down. If Bitcoin Repeats History? Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 Part 7: Another Bearish Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross Part 8: Bitcoin's Full Moon Reversal 6 Month Pattern Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by dragononcrypto
2
Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA BearcrossA quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart. From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week. Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend. If Bitcoin Repeats History? Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018 Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
BNC:BLXShort
by dragononcrypto
Bitcoin BTC BLX - Monthly View analysis - Retracement of Wave 2 Good morning everyone, Bitcoin is in a complex wave 2 with multiple ways for investors to approach an entry for extreme upside. Everyone knows that the next halving is near (May 2020). I decided to take a step back and show you the montly chart and introduce you to potential entry points. The chart might look like a mess but regroup all the Bitcoin history (BLX chart) and can be very indicative of where Bitcoin can potentially retrace. Probabilities and most common retracements for a Wave 2 : -15% of Wave 2 are correcting between at 38% of Wave 1. -75% of Wave 2 are correcting between 50% and 61.8% (golden fib). -15% of Wave 2 are correcting under 61.8% fib. Support on the Monthly chart 7K range -Renko at 7797$ -61.8 golden fib 7230$ -VWMA 20 at 7112$ -Monthly EMA 21 at 7025$ if 7K range doesn't hold... 5K range -78.6 fib : 5435$ -Renko at : 5199$ -85% fib : 4750$ -90% fib : 4216$ Monthly Vortex indicator give the hand to the bulls. Monthly EMA Ribbon is currently supporting 5k to 7k range.
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto_Mercy