BNB Versus BTC: A Grim PredictionAlthough this is probably becoming a more 'mainstream' view, I still believe BNB has lower to go. I mainly think that shorting BNBBTC is the best expression of a negative view on BNB and Binance broadly, as I think BTC will probably go higher over the next few months.
As Binance struggles with all these lawsuits and faces issues in and out of the US, its competitors are rising. In my opinion, all exchanges will face lawsuits from the US; it's just that Binance is the biggest target. Recently, regulators or Binance revoked some of its licenses, like the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, and Cyprus.
It's been clear for many years now it has done many shady things for which it would eventually have to pay a heavy price. It's unclear how dire the consequences will be, but it's unlikely that they will escape unscathed. There are also many big questions around BNBchain, which is heavily centralized and controlled by a few people.
BNBBTC peaked when FTX collapsed, a clear sign to go short. Why? Because regulators would have to become more active and mainly focus on Binance as it was selling its FTT and was partially blamed for the collapse. But how low could it go? And why?
In BTC terms, the minimum target is 0.0065. It will probably test that high and sweep the double bottom left untouched. However, as time passes, I think it will go significantly lower and potentially get as low as 0.003.
My reasoning is that 1) More exchanges will rise and compete with Binance, like Coinbase, Gemini, and other TradFi exchanges. Maybe even FTX gets revived (FTX 2.0), 2) BTC will dominate flows and liquidity as the ETF over the next year is almost a certainty, 3) Bitcoin, Ethereum, and their L2s will get the most users. Bnbchain will fail to gain extra traction, 4) Binance will face severe regulatory pressures and lose some court cases.
Finally, as you can see in the chart below, BNBUSD doesn't look healthy at all. It's still extremely overvalued, had a mini blow-off top and failure to reclaim support, has been rejected at the yearly Pivot, and has a massive FVG lower. I believe that the price could get to 150 over the next year, even if Bitcoin keeps rallying.
