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KRE a banking sector ETF for regional banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks KRE had a bad time in the spring with the small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of citizens in them. There have been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken some business from small banks saddled with securities with diminished value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines. Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative trend index signal shows bearish trending today providing confirmation of of a dip which is now available as an entry point. Relative Strength Indicator which compares with the SPY showing persistent strength Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 52 by the end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days. My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential for a very low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel at 47.84 I have uploaded a similar idea on DPST.
AMEX:KRELong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?While I believe that the markets are currently standing on the edge of a cliff and will not produce a new all time high, it's very important to note that price action is yet to confirm that, with the most significant catalyst of them all being Wednesday's FOMC. Wednesday's FOMC is important because whether the Fed hikes again and how much they hike will determine what happens with bond yields, which determines what happens to bond prices (inverse correlation), which determines what will happen with the U.S. Petrodollar. There's no FOMC again until September. I discuss what I think will happen this week in the following call: ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon Charles Schwab is an important piece of the U.S. banking structure because it's the 10th largest bank in the country. When you take a look at recent price action on banks, everything seems to be going pretty well, and it's almost as if the Silicon Valley Bank crisis never happened. SIVB's demise, however, was a really significant canary in the coal mine because that particular bank was not only one of the largest in the country, but a major intermediary between the West's venture capital community and the Chinese Communist Party. You just absolutely have to keep an eye on what's going on with China and the International Rules Based Order right now, because everything "Taiwan War" is really talking about how the globalists can take control of China as the CCP falls. Based on this, I think Taiwan Semiconductor is a significant long hedge right now because it's not a component of the U.S. indexes, and is a world leader in silicon wafer production: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge China is the world's 5,000 year country and has huge natural resources and a huge population of very sophisticated people, so it's a target. If Xi Jinping is smart, he will weaponize the 24-year persecution, organ harvesting, and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million believers to protect himself and the Motherland. But if he does this it means that the entire world will quickly be implicated in the Nero-like persecution of spiritual cultivators of an upright faith. The impact on the markets, our society, and our reality will be extreme. And oh so hard to bear. I can only say if you want to be long at this point, you need to be hedged long on volatility or you might die. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude The enormous Schwab dump from March, which you primarily see was a fully manifested failure swing only on the monthly bars: Was spurred on by the banking crisis, which served as a prelude to the very significant bear market rally we've had. Now everyone believes new highs are in order and everything is going to be fine. It's time to go long, go on vacation, and collect money while being hammered in a speedo at the beach with the other men. What a painful hangover. The problem with the more up more right now crowd's thesis on Schwab is that the entire range above where we're at, and we're already flirting with the 79% retrace of the March gap down, was already filled, which we see on the weekly: Moreover, there are two significant price action problems with the bull case from a market maker perspective. The first is that Schwab dumped to exactly $45.00 in the first place. Computers don't like preserving round numbers and people just love to put stops under/at psychologically significant whole numbers. The second is that the COVID dump was likewise $28.00. And for the same reasons, that's even more dangerous. I am predisposed to believe that Schwab is likely to be the next Credit Suisse-style big short, and may even be the vanguard for the next crisis that would take us under SPX 4,200 and towards 3,700 in accordance with the new JPM collar, which I discuss below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' As for what the fundamental story will be, it's very hard to say. But let's compare Schwab's monthly bars you see above to some other top 10 banks: Bank of America Monthly Does not show any indication of failure swings and really just looks like a healthy retrace. While Wells Fargo does not look strong enough, it also does not yet indicate a real short setup on higher time frames And this is even more true for JP Morgan And Goldman Sachs Which can be, at worst, only be said to be setting up for the first leg of a failure swing. At worst. And thus it is extremely notable that Charles Schwab is as weak as it is. My call is the thesis that the optimal short entry is already here, with some kind of flirtation with the $70.00 mark due for FOMC. And if Schwab and the banking sector and the equities sector are truly bullish, that would be great, but I still expect a stab back into the "wick play" area before it would move to set a new all time high, which means $69 to $50 is really quite the win if you're short and quite the loss if you're longing the top or haven't taken profits. If Schwab and the banking sector are really the catalyst for something as disastrous as Nasdaq 9,000, then the target is under $28 and you're more or less standing on the edge of The Big Short. Right now, with the VIX as suppressed as it is and price as high as it is, January '25 $55 puts are only $3.7~ with at the money puts being $8.3~ Just selling them on a flirt with $50 again, let alone $44.99, is already a big win. Humans never believe in anything until they can see it. It's one of their worst deficiencies.
NYSE:SCHWShort
by LordWrymouth
BNKD Is the banking crisis still simmering?Recently, a report posted on the Social Science Research Network found that 186 banks in the United States are at risk of failure or collapse due to rising interest rates and a high proportion of uninsured deposits.Jun 14, 2023 BNKD, the banking bearish and leveraged ETF has dropped in trend down in the past month albeit with some upgoing corrections along the way. GS, JPM and MS are all uptrending as an with DPST high jumping in the past day. On the 2H chart, BNKD is in deep oversold undervalued territory at or below more than two standard deviations below the mean VWAP. However: (1) the mass index indicator popped into the reversal zone and then dropped below the trigger level of 26.5. I see this as a mathematical prediction of a soon impending reversal. (2) the dual time frame RSI shows the lower TF blue line bounced from the lows and the higher TF is flat not showing further weakness. I consider this a subtle bullish divergence. (3) Importantly the red line in the sand here is the POC line of the visible range volume profile. Price is presently supported by that line showing buyers taking a defensive stand at that level. Overall, I will take a long reversal trade here targeting the middle of the first upper deviation band at 12.0 with a stop loss at 8.88. This is a high potential reward of 35% for a small risk taken. The reward on an options trade would potentially be well over 100%. I will zoom into a 15-30 minute time frame to select a pivot low to make a more precise entry.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
4