💳📈 Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Analysis 🔍📊Market Position:
Affirm Holdings NASDAQ:AFRM is a leader in the rapidly growing buy now, pay later (BNPL) market, particularly popular among younger consumers. Strategic partnerships with major retailers like Amazon and Shopify distinguish Affirm from its competitors, positioning it to capture significant market share.
Service Expansion:
A recent expansion of services with Walmart now includes pay-over-time options at self-checkout kiosks in over 4,500 stores, which could drive higher adoption rates and transaction volumes.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Affirm Holdings above the $30.50-$31.00 level.
Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $54.00-$55.00, Affirm's strong growth potential and advantageous position in the BNPL market are noteworthy.
📈💳 Monitor Affirm Holdings for promising investment opportunities! #AFRM #BNPL 🔍📊
Bnpl
AFFIRM - is this still a good buy?
CNBC has reported recently the surge of AFFIRM shares after better-than-expected results as per the screenshot above.
AFFIRM (a buy now pay later business) has published some exciting highlights.
Let us look at their GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliation in detail:
AFFIRM makes a profit in the most recent quarter by using non-GAAP measurements. Using the whole year results ending 30 June 2023, total revenue is $1.587B and total operating costs are $2.788B, representing an operating loss of $1.2B.
Yet through the lens of non-GAAP, the last quarter was profitable with $14.7M because non-GAAP does not include the costs of depreciation & amortization, stock-based compensation, enterprise warrant, restructuring and other costs. Going forward, I recommend all to focus more on the GAAP figures as that gives a better view of the financials. Creative accounting and business narratives can distract us from having a realistic view of the business.
The need to probe further into the financials is necessary so that we can better appreciate the financial fundamentals of the business. After 1 year, AFFIRM suffered a loss of $1.2B, compared to the loss of $0.866B from the same period a year ago.
Conclusion
Let us perform the due diligence necessary so that we can filter out great companies. It is possible that some of the media focus on certain good parts and omit other “necessary” portions.
No one should care more about our money than ourselves. The due diligence will be the leverage we have. Should the price plunge, this will give us the confidence to hold or buy even more.
Without good fundamentals, I recommend staying away.
NASDAQ:AFRM
Affirm AFRM Just might get its own Holiday Narrative #AFRM I'm Long Affirm and will continue to DCA the lows. I think that even if all other stocks crash and get Zero gains from now until next year. I think it's Highly likely that Wallstreet will create a narrative and pump Affirm. I think that the overall idea of lack of cash and credit this year as well as it being hard for many to afford Xmass shopping and or even food and gas to get by will really create a HUGE rush of clientele for Affirm. They even have options to pay for entire vacations,VRBO, flights etc. with Affirm. I could see all types of people having various reasons and or ways they find themselves linking up with Affirm this year.
I think anywhere under $25-$30k short term is Cheap and in the bigger picture I think anywhere under $60 is cheap. Maybe I'm way off on this one, only time will tell. But i personally see them getting a HUGE upcoming holiday narrative that's further enhanced by the bad economy.
$AFRM #AFRM $Affirm #Affirm
ASX buy-now-pay-later stocks enter regulatory spotlight From relative obscurity, buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services have become instant superstars. As consumer preference shifts from credit cards to interest-free instalments, the market for BNPL providers also grows, attracting regulations that may curb their capabilities and the fast rate at which the sector is expanding.
It wasn't until 2015 that BNPL caught attention following the launch of Afterpay in Australia. At the height of the pandemic, the sector took off, with as many as 8.5 million customers shared between the three largest platforms — Afterpay, Zip (ASX: ZIP) and Humm (ASX: HUM), according to Savings.com.
Customer spending is also growing with A$11.9 billion recorded from Australian customers in the 2021-2022 financial year from A$5.6 billion three years earlier, according to ABC. Globally, spending is expected to further increase, with generous projections between US$650 billion and US$1 trillion by 2025, AJOT reported.
The players and coalitions
Currently, there are 19 BNPL providers in Australia that are catering to millions of customers. The largest in terms of market capitalization are Block (ASX: SQ2), Zip, Humm, Splitit (ASX: SPT), and Sezzle (ASX: SZL).
Block, formerly Square, entered Australia through its record $39 billion acquisition in 2021 of Afterpay. Now, the companies have a combined market capitalization of $59.36 billion, so much more than Afterpay's $100 million valuation when it listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in May 2016.
The company benefitted heavily from a niche it found during the pandemic. It saw its shares skyrocket, as did most of its peers. But as supply chain issues, inflation fears and worries about rising interest rates became more prevalent, confidence in BNPL companies dwindled and have their stock prices. From the chart below, we see that several of Australia's largest BNPL stocks all have fallen ~90% from their respective peaks.
From relative obscurity, buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services have become instant superstars. As consumer preference shifts from credit cards to interest-free instalments, the market for BNPL providers also grows, attracting regulations that may curb their capabilities and the fast rate at which the sector is expanding.
It wasn't until 2015 that BNPL caught attention following the launch of Afterpay in Australia. At the height of the pandemic, the sector took off, with as many as 8.5 million customers shared between the three largest platforms — Afterpay, Zip (ASX: ZIP) and Humm (ASX: HUM), according to Savings.com.
Customer spending is also growing with A$11.9 billion recorded from Australian customers in the 2021-2022 financial year from A$5.6 billion three years earlier, according to ABC. Globally, spending is expected to further increase, with generous projections between US$650 billion and US$1 trillion by 2025, AJOT reported.
The players and coalitions
Currently, there are 19 BNPL providers in Australia that are catering to millions of customers. The largest in terms of market capitalization are Block (ASX: SQ2), Zip, Humm, Splitit (ASX: SPT), and Sezzle (ASX: SZL).
Block, formerly Square, entered Australia through its record $39 billion acquisition in 2021 of Afterpay. Now, the companies have a combined market capitalization of $59.36 billion, so much more than Afterpay's $100 million valuation when it listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in May 2016.
The company benefitted heavily from a niche it found during the pandemic. It saw its shares skyrocket, as did most of its peers. But as supply chain issues, inflation fears and worries about rising interest rates became more prevalent, confidence in BNPL companies dwindled and have their stock prices. From the chart below, we see that several of Australia's largest BNPL stocks all have fallen ~90% from their respective peaks.
AfterPay - Price action needs to hold this level of support !!The APT price action is desperately looking for support and a pretty obvious elliott wave ABC correction is in play. Chart is suggesting APT needs to hold this level or we could see further falls down to the $70 level or even lower. Also H&S pattern is in play. Just an observation take with a grain of salt.
Z1P - A closer look at the Falling Wedge !What will happen in the week ahead for Z1P ? My guess is as good as yours, although I am leaning slightly to Z1P validating a counter trendline break as the money rotation slows.
The 0.618 retracement has been respected as resistance a number of times inside the falling wedge, as a result the $8.50 - $8.70 is worth watching closely. Additionally, Z1P at the longer time frame retracement (0.618) level is starting to get confluence in an oversold stoch, RSI, lower time frame MACD divergence as well which should act as strong support.
My Idea on ASX:HUM in one single chartI have been monitoring this stock but at the moment I can say that it is was only humming but looking at the chart and on the well known structure (Cup-and-handle), I can say that this stock is about to scream instead of humming. i will keep an eye on it. The only issue it is not hype like other BNPL but it is catching up slowly. we may see a big move in next few days.
According to my other indicators, it is a buy on low time frame swing trading but, if the Cup-and-Handle plays out, it may be another multibagger on my watchlist.
I will keep you posted if anything interesting pops up. If you like these TA, please smash the likes.
Peace and Love.
XTF
HUMM - Is it ready to breakout with the other BNPL players?Technicals - Chart suggests Humm looks ready to jump on the back of the momentum in the BNPL space (ZIP, APT etc).
Looking for a break through resistance with a bullish candle which lilkley results in the resistance becoming strong support. Looks a good risk reward trade.
[EW] ASX:Z1P Wave 2 completion off of stupid comboSo the sideways action that Z1P was stuck in from June to December after that gap up does seem to be a valid combo wave.
Based on the price action since I'd say it's most likely ended.
Projecting a fib ratio of wave (1) from (2) and taking the 1.618 ratio gives us a price target of $14.70.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
[EW] ASX:HUM Fresh off Minor wave 2I believe HUM has finished a combo correction following it's post-rona rise.
It is in the middle of a minute 1 and minuette 2, perfect conditions for a bullish entry.
Projecting a fib ratio of (i) from (ii) gives (iii) a price target of 1.525.
This is an updated analysis from a more in-depth one over on hotcopper, here's the link:
hotcopper.com.au
Zip Co (Z1P) FY 2021 Bull TargetsAs you can see, Zip Co have recently started gaining momentum upwards, after trading and consolidating at SPP range for a few weeks. this has been significant as it started show signs of strength that is maintained, and can continue to the rest of the year. Fundamentals are looking strong, and Technical analysis are certainly backing it up. at this current rate, I wouldn't be surprised if we reach the fib target at 20-25$ BY THE END OF THE YEAR. it held the golden .618 fib support and continued a strong rally towards ATH. I took a position at 5$ and very confident with the trade for the next 3-5 years. short term target however is 25$. long term target is 50$. if there are heavy shares buy back, expect a higher long term target.
SPT - Looks very InterestingBullish Confirmation Indications
Recent price action may have confirmed a reversal as we can see that price came down to the trendline and has since moved up.
Price has also moved out of the downtrend line (triangle) which indicates that Buyers are strong.
1. Price has been supportive at the support level of $1.00 - $1.30 zone
2. There also lies a trendline which has acted as good support
3. There also lies 200 day Moving Average trending upward and has provided Dynamic Support (Confluence)
4. Price has been failing to continue up because of the Resistance Zone of $1.430 - $1.470 range
5. I believe that price may come down again to give a buying opportunity and backtest the trendline and continue up
6. I will be confident to buy in the $1.120 - $1.20 region (Buy Zone) after proving some Bullish Price Action
Please note these are my own notes, by no means trading advice. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.