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USDCAD - Being Patient with BOC Rate StatementThe impulsive drop on USDCAD seems to have started with the weakening of US Dollar, and the hawkish sentiment from BOC recently. Looking at how price has developed, I will remain bearish on this pair for the remaining of 2017. However, I would prefer to be patient and wait for a decent correction towards 1.3122 before looking for a short opportunity again. Next week BOC Rate Statement might come in as anticipated and might give us the necessary correction. Here are 3 reasons for me to avoid shorting this pair immediately - 1) Price has met the minimum criteria fibonacci ratio for a 3rd wave down. This give us the expectation of seeing a wave 4 correction before another move lower. 2) We are seeing a RSI divergence forming. This show us that the bearish strength might have subsided and a correction is near. 3) On the hourly timeframe, we are seeing a potential expanding diagonal structure forming. This technical pattern is a reversal pattern and thus we believe the higher probability direction is to the upside - a very short term one though. So my trade plan next week? BE PATIENT WITH THE BOC RATE STATEMENT. **Definitely keeping a close watch on how price develop next week.
by KarYong
EURCAD - What's Next?Last week, we posted an analysis EURCAD - At Decision Point: Break down or one more up? Price didn't break down immediately with the risk events from Oil Inventories and ECB Press Conference, but earlier this week, with the un-scheduled news release from Bank of Canada (BOC) stating a potential rate hike strengthened the CAD significantly, pushing EURCAD lower as forecasted. So what's next for EURCAD? We believe that there is still more room for price to move lower. However, we always share with traders - DO NOT jump onto a trade at the end of an impulse move. Here's two scenarios that can possibly happen - 1) Price starts to form a corrective move, or 2) Price starts to form a reversal move. If price forms a corrective move, we are good to short it for another move lower. If price forms a reversal move, we are good too! We will wait and reanalyse again :) What are your views on EURCAD?
by KarYong
2
USDCAD - When Price Action Defies Logic... Or Not?The USDCAD made a new high at 1.38 in May and was subsequently met with a fierce downtrend for 1.5 months. Many breakout traders would have bought into the breakout at 1.3560 and would have been handsomely rewarded with a gain of at least 240 pips in the first up move. Yet, the good times did not last. Retracement traders who hoped to rejoin the uptrend with probable longs at the retest of the 1.3560 area were smacked with a 240pip loss with last night's move. One might argue that the uptrend is still intact, and it is - only if 1.3200 holds. Why do we say that price action defied logic? More USDCAD weakness expected attributing to: a. Oil price weakness b. Probable strength for dollar recovery given FOMC meeting on Thurs c. Weak Canadian Data So what then was the game changer? We would pin point it at Senior Deputy Governor at the BOC saying "current significant monetary policy stimulus in the system may be reduced, citing the ongoing recovery of the Canadian economy."
by revelationtrading
BOC Interest Rate Decision This WeekThe BOC interest rate decision is scheduled at the end of this week on Friday. Based on the market consensus, we’re not going to see any meaningful shift in terms of the BOC monetary policy outlook. The BOC is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5%. The BOC is not anticipated to hike rates until 2018 while on the other side of the monetary policy spectrum; we have the Fed, which has already hiked 3 times in the past 17 months. This only leaves the Canadian dollar exchange rate at risk. The BOC will reveal not just its interest rate decision, but we’re also going to get an updated monetary policy report, which can give traders further outlook on the strength of the Canadian economy. During the last BOC meeting, Governor Poloz had a balanced rhetoric. The BOC also updated its 2017 growth forecast and they expect the output gap to close in the first half of 2018 so earlier than expected, but at the same time, it’s too early to conclude the economy is on a stable or sustainable path. Based on the BOC assessment the CPI inflation headline of 2% is expected to fall back to 1.7% as the BOC continued to reiterate that considerable uncertainty remains in the market. In terms of the monetary policy outlook, there is no meaningful conviction that the BOC will be ready to move the interest rate off of record low. USD/CAD Technical story ahead of BOC The USD/CAD technical pattern remains bullish in the long-term. In the medium-term, the USD/CAD is trading above the yearly opening price 1.3415 which in essence can be the line in the sand for the bulls. To the upside, the big psychological number 1.4000 is the next big hurdle for the USD/CAD. Short-term the USD/CAD rally paused as we’ve seen oil prices rebound sharply. It’s been rumoured that OPEC nations and non-OPEC nations (Russia) are willing to extend their production cuts and the next OPEC meeting scheduled at the beginning of next month in Vienna. The BOC interest rate decision can be the catalyst for a breakout of the current range that USD/CAD has established in the past 2 weeks. A failure to preserve this bullish formation will be signalled by a break below the big round number 1.3500. Based on our Elliott Wave Analysis, we are USD/CAD to continue being pressured lower towards 1.3379 area before another potential move higher towards 1.4096 area. Going into this week BOC Rate Statement, we will be looking for short term sell opportunities. Conclusion The biggest threat to higher interest rate is the USA – Canada trade uncertainty which poses a notable downside risk to growth. It’s very unlikely that the BOC will even signal any shift in its interest rates policy anytime soon. With this in mind, we can safely assume that any USD/CAD false breakout to the downside should quickly fade away. Watch for the 1.3500 psychological number and the year opening price 1.3415 to hold the downside. However, a daily close below 1.3415 can signal a shift in the market sentiment.
by KarYong
1
USDCAD: With oil rising...I think we can get a rapid selloff in USDCAD, given how volatile it is. I entered shorts on Friday with tight stops, and looking to add at market open. It also serves as a hedge against my other positions, short SEK and JPY. My currency positioning is as follows: long USD, AUD, CAD, short SEK and JPY. Fundamentals might create interesting opportunities, both long and short in majors, so I'm open to hedging my profitable trades and keeping balanced positions between currencies. (USDSEK and EURSEK are in good profits now for instance) I'm open to shorting oil against this position additionally, but not right now, when it's expanding the daily range shooting up. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
USD/CAD viewGood evening traders, Energy traders would have noticed the somewhat eery price action on oil prices recently. I believe that recently losses are attributed to: - Emerging doubts over the degree of compliance with OPEC production cuts as Iraqi exports remain high; - Concerns about the rate of market rebalancing; - Rapid rebound in U.S. shale production following a report at the end of last week which showed another solid build in US rig count (risen for the tenth consecutive week) - I expressed my concerns about this in the related USD/NOK idea. Reports that non-OPEC producers Russia and Kazakhstan had reduced output produced little positive price reaction. In essence, there is a battle between two major market dynamics: OPEC cutting (and adhering to cuts) and addition of supply by US shale producers. One thing is for certain though: currently /cl price action does not look promising. USD/CAD is the best way to play near term oil downside in my opinion. USDCAD view USDCAD has been moving in the visible channel since May 2016 and is currently sitting on the lower trend line. CAD looks very expensive currently; the US-Canada 2YR swap spread suggests that USDCAD should be trading much higher indeed. Markets have been ignoring the risk of US protectionism for CAD; although CAD isn't as exposed to the risk as some other currencies (AUD, for example), the BoC's business outlook survey showed that some respondents are concerned about the uncertainty associated w/ rising protectionism and I do not think that the risk should be discounted so much, since a potential shift from selective tariffs to broad border tax could be significant for US-Canada trade. Risk:reward, technicals and fundamentals all favour buying the dip on USDCAD, targeting 1.37000. Good luck!
Long
by jamiegleave
1
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here. Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
AUDCAD: Trend will resumeTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in Elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We were expecting it's minor first leg and was expected small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train. On 7th Dec (Today), we are confirming correction should be over. We are marking this is a complex flat correction where price was traded in range bound. Action We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss. We also added plan for third position here. - By Hoagtrading.com (@hoagtrading)
Short
by Hoag
AUDCAD December Technical Analysis: Reversal confirmedTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We are expecting it's minor first leg will be completed soon and can expect small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train. Action We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss. -- By Hoagtrading.com (@Hoagtrading)
Short
by Hoag
AUDCAD: Trend Reversal?Talking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View : Confirming completion of wave (C) of c Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864. Ongoing upward momentum can be wave 2 / wave B. Action We are having level planned to short this pair with limited risk and having maximum rewards. -- By @Hoagtrding (Hoagtrading.com)
by Hoag
AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Expecting correction to be overTalking Point: Technical Strategy : Turning Bearish Elliottwave View: Expecting completion of wave (C) of c. Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave. With that in mind, we are expecting correction should be over sooner and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.022 to 1.023 area. Action We are waiting for decline and it's confirmation before entering into market. Until then we are sideline and looking into future development.
by Hoag
EURCAD: Daily uptrend after a huge baseWe have a giant base in EURCAD, after testing a long term speed line support. It's clear we can expect higher prices, specially if we break the last session high. You can go long on dips to 1.48131, or on a new daily high. Stops for all positions should be at 1.47326. Target 1.51543, although we might see a reaction at 1.50786, so keep an eye on it, and the projected date for the top: October 26th. As a sidenote, if price doesn't retest 1.46441 during Q4 2016, we have a signal that points to a rally towards 1.76219, so it might be worth it to hold long positions initiated here for the long term with a break even stop after hitting the daily targets. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie