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AUDCAD: Good chance to longWe can take this long here, risking a drop under 0.97612. Target is not set in stone, but watch how it evolves. We're testing a critical support level, but also facing considerable resistance, so we might have to be patient. I still think the trend will continue to be up, so, not a huge concern to hold this. Good luck! Ivan Labrie. PS: I had a moderator comment on my publication format, for now, I'm keeping it brief, but message me if interested in my services. I will post trades on and off, but there are quite a few I reserve for my private clients.
Long
by IvanLabrie
We Expect Weak Canadian Jobs Report After Massive Wildfire• The CAD weakened against USD as oil prices moved lower and risk appetite waned. Losses for the loonie came one day after it strengthened to a five-week high at 1.2655 as expectations dwindled that the US Federal Reserve will move to hike interest rates again soon. • Oil prices fell, snapping a three-day rally after notching another 2016 high, as a stronger dollar sparked profit-taking in crude futures. Slippage in global stocks provided an additional headwind for the risk-sensitive commodity-linked Canadian dollar. US stocks retreated after three straight days of gains. • Statistics Canada showed that Canadian industries ran at 81.4% of capacity in the first quarter, up from 80.9% in the previous quarter and new home prices in Canada rose 0.3% in April from March. • Canadian employment data for May will be released today (12:30 GMT). The report comes after a massive wildfire last month cut production in Alberta's oil sands region. That’s why we should expect weak figures. The Bank of Canada has said it expects damage from the wildfire to shave 1.25 percentage points off economic growth in the second quarter, which could put the quarter on pace for a contraction. • Our USD/CAD outlook remains bearish in the long term. Firming economic growth, a recovery in commodities prices and the shift in expectations for monetary policy for both Canada and the United States are still important supportive factors for the loonie. Sign up to trading newsletter growthaces.com and start profiting from our trading strategies.
Short
by GrowthAces
Inverse Oil/USDCAD: Time to short oil against CADIn this chart I illustrate how drastic the outperformance of oil is against cad. Whenever this happens, we have a trade opportunity at hand. See related ideas for a chart by Tim West on this same subject. We can anticipate inverse oil's performance to improve relative to USDCAD, and thus, expect either USDCAD to stall or retrace, or, USOIL to fall rapidly and catch up with the move in USDCAD. (I think the latter is the most probable scenario) If you look at the recent turn of events, all international news regarding the supply of oil have been curiously released right when the price action suggested a top was in place but the manipulation can only last for so long before the market resumes its course. I firmly believe what we see in lumber or usdcad is a more realistic depiction of what we should see in oil, so, let's try to capture that impending downside. One more thing to consider, you can also try to book USDCAD profits and/or try a short against the usoil short, effectively shorting oil against cad, or perhaps try the TSLA/USOIL long, see charts below: Good luck! Disclaimer: I'm currently long USDCAD from an average entry of 1.26, and shorted oil at 48.85 with a 3 atr stop loss (roughly 5 points). If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
USDCAD: Hold longs, watch these levelsIn my previous publication I shared my long entry in USDCAD. I was long from a couple days before but using a wider stop, until I noticed price action in the hourly chart suggested the bottom was 100% in. Then I added to it with tighter stops. I hope many caught that trade with us! In the chart you can see my previous usdcad publications, which show I've been 80% right in this pair, contrary to say, NZDUSD, which is one of the worst performers for me, where I only got 30% wins in the daily chart. In this case, the time at mode trend signals will shine, but in NZDUSD, a more reactive trading style is needed, which in hindsight, would favor bar by bar price action analysis (which can most certainly be done using Tim West's tools, but not expecting trades to evolve into trend setups like I mistakenly did). This is a nice feature, offered by tradingview, I'd reccomend you all use it, both to analyze your past performance, but also to see what the bulk of traders are doing. During a trend, you can see that most of them are trying to go against it, with growing number of shorts right before the tops, and a shift into longs after it has in fact topped. What I would like, would be to see not only suggested authors' ideas, but I guess it would be too demanding for Tradingview servers to show us ALL trade ideas for one symbol per timeframe, on chart, as an overlay to each bar. That being said, the levels I plotted on chart will be important resistance levels on the way up, and I anticipate to form a sideways range eventually, after meeting either of them. The key will be seeing what price does after hitting each of them, to either, add to longs, or close and go short again. For now, it'd be hard to determine how far price can go, so, we'll go with the flow and don't try to play Nostradamus (yet). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
EURCAD: Chance to join this uptrendWe're in this long with my group already, as you can see in the private idea on chart. We have moved the stop loss up to the location on chart, and now we're presented with an opportunity to long if we break above yesterday's high. The target on chart is a time at mode uptrend target, we can expect to rally rapidly towards it once the pair breaks up since EURUSD is acting strong and oil topping...even if USDCAD is to stall or retrace, odds of a rally are considerable. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
USDCAD: Bottom's inYou heard it here first...go long at market, keep stops under the low, or give it some extra breathing room if you wish (like adding 1 atr below it). Oil has topped, and now it's the turn for USDCAD to move up again after hitting a weekly mode of the previous uptrend. Correction's over. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
GBPCAD: Potential uptrend emerging from hereWe can look to capture some upside in this pair. Currently lagging GBPUSD, and offering indications of a potential bottom. We have landed on the recent monthly uptrend's mode, currently finding support and evidence of the bulls getting involved here. A resumption of said uptrend seems likely. If you're not long, you can enter at market with stops under 1.8257 ideally. Plenty of room to catch up with GBPUSD and other GBP pairs. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
CADUSD: Close above low volume resistance opens up huge upsideI have been trading the long side in this pair for a while now, entering and reentering on every chance I had. I'm in this trade, and looking to add if we get a minor retracement retesting the low volume resistance zone. If not in, you can go long now, or on retracement to the light blue zone on chart. The same applies to USDCAD, naturally, just inverse. If you platform doesn't have this pair trade the USDCAD short side. If you know how to trade trends, this might be a terrific one to ride, really nice potential here. Good luck if taking this trade. If interested in my professional trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
CADJPY: Potential for huge downside in this pairCADJPY has broken under a previous week's low recently after finding massive supply coming in at a previous low volume resistance level, where the bears showed hand. Interestingly enough, we now have 5 closed quarters without a new high, and a close under the quarterly mode, thus confirming a long term downtrend in this pair is viable. The weekly chart shows us with clarity where the highest activity levels sit. Currently we have 8 week levels where price has transacted at, soon to become 9, thus favoring continuation of the downtrend that kicked off during December 2015. Once we observe price move under 82.774, it'd be safe to assume we might have a sharp decline, with potential to hit the 75 handle in 9 weeks or less. Confirmation according to the time at mode logic would arrive later, but I'm already in this trade based on the daily chart price action. We have 5 days without a new high after today's close, further validating this thesis. You can go short on any intraday retracement, or at market now, with stops above the 85 mark. Good luck if taking this trade, if interested in receiving timely trade signals and/or tuition, contact me privately for more information. I'm currently offering a discount for new clients who opt for my trading course. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
EURCAD: Potential rally after downtrend time expiredIn this chart we have a nice long setup, with a premature entry, based on a series of factors, ahead of the time at mode confirmation for this trade. Since we're above the mode, or most frequent price since the recent low, it's likely to see uptrend continuation, specially considering that the downtrend we had observed in the daily (see my related publications) has reached the target, and the time duration of it expired. This implies price can rally back to the downtrend mode, which is what I expect based on the eurusd, usdcad and oil charts. We can enter preemtively now, using a wider stop and a smaller position (1% risk at the 3 atr stop on chart), and set a generic 5 atr take profit. This type of entry lets us 'feel the waters' in many instruments, and focus on adding to those that are currently performing best. We can also use paper trading accounts to take positions we wouldn't normally take, or to sell when we close any long trade, etc. and track our performance this way. I hope you find this useful, it's not always about using tight stops, but having lower risk from time to time, can favor our equity curves too. The horizontal lines are 1 atr distance levels, where I would like to add to the trade (and which would confirm the strength of the proposed uptrend). After exceeding 1 atr profit, we can add on any setback, no need to add if price keeps going up with no retracement. Happy Easter! Ivan Labrie
Long
by IvanLabrie
NZDCAD: Triple top and potential 12 month decline aheadThis chart is significantly interesting for a variety of reasons. On a technical and fundamental basis I think we can expect NZDCAD to sell off in the intermediate to long term, and right here we have the perfect excuse to join in on this action as a position trade. The entry is a discretionary entry, below the previous monthly close, in case next month, we stay under the monthly mode at 0.92063, which would confirm the 12 month decline and the target on chart. Good luck if taking this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
USDCAD - waiting for candlestick formationCaddy approaching serious technical support zone (1,33-1,34) -200 dma + trendline Need to watch for crude oil price as USDCAD and WTI intraday correlation is very strong. Also waiting for bullish reversal candlestick formation, not opening position without seeing that. Fundamentally both US and Canadian GDP figures outperformed, inflation momentum is picking up also, giving less room/opportunity for FED and BoC for being loose on monetary policy. Being patient and observing this opportunity. For Hungarian followers: www.geopro.hu
Long
by RobertSoos
USDCAD: Downtrend continuationUSDCAD has confirmed a daily time at mode downtrend aiming for 1.30 as maximum target. I'm short from last night, using a discretionary entry ahead of confirmation in the daily, but I'll be adding as we progress towards the target and continue to be in the money with our position. Good luck if going short with me, remember to keep a wide stop loss, either ATR based, or using the mode. I'll be trailing stops and adding to the position as the trend evolves, it could result in a very large move to the downside based on my observations. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
12
EURCAD: Potential long term shortEURCAD is displaying a potential topping pattern at the top of the recent range, right against a long term mode, the price zone with the most activity in the chart since 1994. The previous reaction to such a strong historical resistance level was seen in the chart I posted before, where I reccomended buying against support for a potentially very large move to the upside (which resulted in a home run trade, with enough returns for a year). This is a terrific opportunity to get short the Euro, and long the Canadian, something which I think is perfectly aligned with the current fundamental landscape. I'll enter with 3 positions, and attempt to ride the downtrend all the way down, booking partial profits on short term selling opportunities, while keeping the core position running, and I'd reccomend you do the same. I favor an ATR based stop loss, against key levels. If interested in getting specific management cues and further add on opportunities, were this trend to reverse as depicted on my quarterly chart, contact me privately. See my profile for details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
15
AUDCAD: Potentially very interesting setupIn the current enviroment, it's nice to add a 'long Canada/short Asia' trade, and this is what this setup is. Currently the trend is up in the weekly but there seems to be a chance for a sharp decline in the daily chart. Risk to reward makes for a great trade if it works, so it's worth it to risk at least 1/2 position on it. Props to @Synapse here for mentioning this pair to me today, I've been waiting to long Canada again, and this seems like a good vehicle for such trade. Good luck if taking it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
EURCAD: Take heed of this critical levelEURCAD is about to test the highest volume price since the Euro's inception, the 52 week MA and also the point of balance downtrend target, obtained using time at mode as a secondary target other than the range one depicted by the red box on chart. It's likely to see a reaction to this level during this crucial week, so, do pay attention to it. I will update this chart with a potential entry, in case this level holds, since I expect the oil weakness to endure, naturally giving us an interesting and very aggressive long trade here. For now, I remain neutral but do pay attention, this might be a very significant reaction once we reach the critical support below. Check out Tim West's "Key Hidden Levels Chatroom for more insights on the stocks , bonds, metals, currencies and Bitcoin markets. I'm currently managing a private trading room for Forex , CFDs and Bitcoin futures traders. Contact me for more details on how to join either of the two. Skype: ivanlabrie QQ: 2954487803 Regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPCAD: Ichimoku and time at modeGBPCAD looks to be headed south, with a potential weekly time at mode downtrend in the making. The price action supports this thesis, and we apply the ichimoku cloud indicator, the chart comes alive. Ichimoku paints a very bearish picture, confirming my bearish bias. There is clear rejection after crossing the cloud down and retesting it. After this, price shoots down, expanding range and triggering a daily time at mode downtrend. As a bonus, the last two daily bars close below the Kijun sen, after a bearish tenkan/kijun sen cross occurred. I have already entered, using a discretionary approach, but will add once I get confirmation that the time at mode weekly trend is valid. The target is 1.90509, to be reached by or before January 8th, 2016. For more information and insights into managing this position, scaling in, and understanding the logic behind the technical setups contact me via pm. I'm currently hosting a skype group for Forex traders, where I share trade setups and also provide traders with training, 2 private webinars per week. I'm also giving tutoring via skype calls, on a one on one basis for a different rate. Good luck if taking this trade with me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
USDCAD: Breakout comingSimple analysis on chart, see my EURUSD chart for more information on today's webinar. Place pending orders: Long trade: -Buy stop at 1.32134 -Stop loss at 1.31681 -Target #1: 1.33996 Short trade: -Sell stop: 1.31228 -Stop loss: 1.31681 -Target: 1.25383 For more information and insights into managing this position, scaling in, and understanding the logic behind the technical setups contact me via pm. I'm currently hosting a skype group, where I share trade setups and also provide traders with training, as well as 2 private webinars per week, and also giving tutoring via skype calls, on a one on one basis. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
6
USDCAD: Short in preparation for today's newsAnalysis is simple, we have a bearish trend continuation trade, or at the very least a pullback in an uptrend. USDCAD has encountered massive overhead resistance and might give a great short here. I'll be hosting a webinar today, explaining how to enter this trade, and how to manage the position once in. The stop loss can be at a few different places, we can use the one on chart, or a wider one using ATR or the structure above. If the short fails, we can reenter, as long as the main analysis is correct. It often happens and it makes us miss huge moves, being taken out by a spike. We have to not fear, and trust our analysis, and reshort when that's the case. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading and via email. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in. All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Short
by IvanLabrie
14
USDCAD: Interesting patternsAdding a 22 period CCI to the chart and a 11 period moving average of highs and lows we can see how oversold USDCAD is. Right now, the next hurdle is the level at 1.30113, which if breached might lead to a repeat of the pattern we have to the left, where CCI also dipped into new momentum lows compared to the past month. I added a replica of the previous decline to illustrate the similarities. This time the global picture is different and we might see an even sharper selloff but only if Crude oil reverses more meaningfully than the last time. If we don't get a move past 1.30113 very soon, I'd be tempted to look for longs, but not yet. Verdict: Neutral, too late to short, too dangerous to go long. Regards, Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3