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USDCAD: Interesting patternsAdding a 22 period CCI to the chart and a 11 period moving average of highs and lows we can see how oversold USDCAD is. Right now, the next hurdle is the level at 1.30113, which if breached might lead to a repeat of the pattern we have to the left, where CCI also dipped into new momentum lows compared to the past month. I added a replica of the previous decline to illustrate the similarities. This time the global picture is different and we might see an even sharper selloff but only if Crude oil reverses more meaningfully than the last time. If we don't get a move past 1.30113 very soon, I'd be tempted to look for longs, but not yet. Verdict: Neutral, too late to short, too dangerous to go long. Regards, Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3
CADJPY Bearish Probability | H&S PatternTechnical Analysis: A small Head and Shoulders Pattern is evident on the chart. A break of 91.600 exposes the first target at 90.700. 93.00 has of late proved to be quite the Resistance Level as the pair failed to achieve a daily close above this handle with two notable failed attempts on the 9th and 12th of October daily candles. It is important to note that this area of price rejection (~93.30) also happens to accommodate the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level (light blue on chart) drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. In addition, 92.60 flaunts the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. This level of Fibonacci confluence , that occurs in an area of structural resistance that has been relatively well-respected, increases the probabilities of a move lower, given the right conditions . With no higher highs in place the pair is still in a downtrend, albeit ranging as it is sandwiched between the 93.00 Resistance and 91.600 Support as indicated in the chart. Therefore a break, close and price action/fundamental follow-through below 91.600 is what I'm timing and watching for. Stops at 92.00. If the Weekly Candle closes as a bearish one, a noteworthy Evening Star will be in place. This is usually a Bearish Indicator. Fundamental Analysis: OIL Prices heavily influence the Canadian Dollar . The guys over at CFDTrading tackle the recent devaluation here . It's a short YouTube video. Therefore recent OIL prices devaluation, Canada's seemingly recessive economy and risk aversion vibes (stronger JPY) are all factors that may contribute to a weaker CAD. As much as Canadian economic data has been improving, there are still inconsistencies with the pattern. Some have been misses and some have been 'good'. Key Risks: The Bank of Japan is relatively more dovish than the Bank of Canada, this difference could work in favor of the CAD. A rebound in OIL prices and/or Canadian Economic Data will see a correlative rise in the CAD.
Short
by JeffMzee
EURCAD: Picture perfect long setupI don't need to say anything, this is an absolutely gorgeous setup. Entering long at market during Sunday open with a wide enough stop below the 16 bar mode should work really well. I'll look into scaling in every chance I get from the 4h chart here. Initial target is the triangle's top by June 22nd, potentially extending to meet the balance point, which matches a retest of the weekly downtrend mode. What else can you ask for? Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
33
USDCAD: Correction over, buy before NFP.It seems that USDCAD has hit rock bottom, reaching a strong support level showing buyers have emerged at this level. The fundamental landscape has been very negative for the US dollar but I think this time the unexpected will happen and we will see a rally. Buying after this bar closes, as long as above the blue line is a good idea, but we can also attempt to buy a minor retracement, if any, or market buy now and scale in on a retracement. Stop loss should be below the blue line, with some wiggle room based on ATR. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
21
USDCAD: Looking to short before the BoC news come outPrice has skyrocketed in the short term, but it's now up against a weekly downtrend mode resistance. The daily uptrend signal target has been exceeded ahead of time and it would seem like the right time to turn into a contrarian. Waiting for bearish signals to confirm this speculative bias. Rgmov is warning us already, showing no new highs diverging vs price. The profile shows it's slightly past the balance point, matching the weekly mode resistance area nicely. There is a daily uptrend in place, so tread carefully. Good luck! Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
15
GBPCAD: Perfect long?Thanks to 'The working trader' for bringing this up. This is my own take on this pair. The chart shows the time at mode bullish setup I'm looking at for entry. I suggest buying the dip if possible. I'm seeing potential for a very large move to the upside, favored by an uptrending rgmov, completion of the downtrend signals in the recent decline reaching a 0.786 retracement of the previous rally, which looks like the retracement you'd get after an impulsive rally culminating in an extended fifth wave. The fundamental landscape, paired with the multiple correlated markets influencing this currency pair make me rate this trade as too good to ignore. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPCAD: Trend reversal?I think this is the case here. We have reached the profile point of balance projection from the low to the longterm mode of this uptrend. As expected, price sharply reversed in one day, consuming almost 3 days worth of progress. I'm waiting for the daily close to enter short, will update the chart once I'm ready, also adding 4h charts to better illustrate the price action that supports my thesis. I think this is a very good trade, potentially worth risking 1% (my full position allocation). Entry will be divided in two with a partial TP to make the rest of the trade risk free. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
17
USDCAD: Very significant top reached!Analysis on chart. There is slight probability that this is the top for this pair, and a strong decline might start from here. I'll be looking to enter short on a retracement if possible, or after a consolidation forms. The invalidation level will be a new high, naturally. Will update with my entry, for now, it's impossible to enter safely, unless you're already in (which I'm not). Props to @sokow, @jangseohee, @AndyM, @NCoulb1 and @GcNaif, we've been analyzing this pair extensively together as of late. Check out their charts. Good luck, Ivan.
DShort
by IvanLabrie
5
USDCAD Short off Technical Top prior to expected rebound.On a larger time frame the USDCAD is a Long Trade. This is because of divergent monetary expectations with regard to the BoC and the Fed with the latter having recently cut rates for the CAD and a rate hike being priced in for the USD. This is a technical short off the 1.300 Handle that confluences with the 261.8 Fib extension of the Bearish corrective wave from 1.25160 to 1.22180, visible on the Daily Chart to the right. On the same D1 TF, Stochastic Oscillator (12,3,3) is indicative of overbought conditions as candlesticks are getting smaller by the day, a sign of slowed momentum. A rebound off the 38.2 Fib Retracement is expected as a minor corrective wave attempts to find support. A correction of more than 50% of the current Bull Wave is unlikely. Long positions will later be taken as soon as PA is favorable. Patience pays . Other important technical levels have been demarcated on the charts. Risks: No correction takes place, technical breakout occurs past 1.300. Influx of Buy Stops hit at that region will cause more Bulls to check in. Calling tops, especially against established momentum is a dangerous thing to do. You can never be really sure.
Short
by JeffMzee
2
CADJPY: 3 short entries possibleAnalysis on chart, the pair shows a strong downtrend and rgmov prints lower lows while price doesn't. This is bearish. Also, price is forming modes lower, validating the downtrend. Split the entry in 3 parts risking 1/3 of your desired exposure to this trade on each. TP when target is hit, but you can cover 50-75% once the distance to the stop is reached to make the trade risk free. Shout out to Anil Mangal for making me look this way. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPCAD: Topping this monthWatching this pair closely since I spotted what looks like a very significant top area, both in time and price. It's possible that GBPCAD will form an ending diagonal triangle and give us a great short opportunity in the coming weeks. The daily and weekly uptrend signals point to a top between the 9th and the 24th of July. It's also interesting to note that there's significant divergence in multiple timeframes, and the levels obtained with time at mode, linear regression channels, fibonacci extensions of wave 1 of this leg and a previous downtrend quarterly/monthly mode overhead resistance all match. If this analysis proves to be correct, we will get a great short opportunity. Will update with an entry. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
23
GBPUSD: Exhuberant rally into monthly resistanceI'm looking to fade this leg, watching the daily uptrend signal expiration. The area above is very, very interesting, keep a close watch. Tomorrow's price action might reverse the FOMC extravaganza, albeit temporarily. We'll know soon enough. I'll update with my entry and stop loss reccomendation when I see a good entry short. Don't forget there's a weekly uptrend in the background, so ultimately I think its possible that this retracement will be temporary and lead to higher highs after retesting the weekly mode or its whereabouts. If we dip lower than the weekly mode, I'd wait for confirmation before going long again. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
10
GBPAUD: UpdateWell, it seems like GBPAUD decided to stop everyone and their mother out. In the chart I plotted a big monthly wedge/triangle every technical trader out there sees, which shows a clear fake breakout above, just an interesting thing to keep in mind, while the latest daily uptrend signal target got reached on the second day, way ahead of time. This fact makes me consider fading the advance, but after taking a hit I'm seriously doubting it. Are these feelings important? I think so, it's possible it will work now, after stopping everybody out, me included. As for the technical chart, the monthly target isn't far off, and we have a few days left in June, but I think it will turn into a failure and that GBPAUD will take a nose dive from here. I'm willing to take a new short this time with a stop above the monthly target and a monthly highest low level. If gold does turn up, and AUDUSD too, which I think will happen soon, possibly even today, then this pair will probably start to fall at last.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35