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ridethepig | ADP/NFP Combo Play📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play. This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness. The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD shorts on rallies into 1.315x providing initial resistance. It looks like this move lower can at least test 1.295x. To avoid jumping the gun, shorts are only worth considering at 1.315x (soft resistance) as we are trading an internal structure that must inspire flows. We are trying to nip any rally with ADP prints in the bud with the still latent power of the structural USD devaluation. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.04.08Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset this huge demand shock, I will keep an ear on the wires with live coverage resuming as usual from today. I am closely tracking for the final sweep to the lows in Oil, for those following in the previous strategies we are entering into fill or kill territory with the final $15 targets: Monthly For all those wanting to dig deeper and build a basket around short CAD I would recommend unless you know what you are doing to start your positions with a hedge, outguessing the flop tomorrow will trigger a major sell off in the black stuff. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Bank of America (BoA) / Short Term AnalysisWith the index that started to rise after the abundant money support given to the markets after the pandemic, we saw that this stock's price could rise to the level of fib 0.618. After this situation, the price seems to be between the rising trendline and the fib 0.382 level for now. If this continues and acts as a rising triangle pattern, the price may reach the tested fib 0.618 level in August or October. Only personal opinions and ideas. Does not include "Legal Investment Advice"...
NYSE:BACLong
by EmoteK
ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow. But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply. Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | CAD Quarterly Outlook 📍 USDCAD Prepare for a flush in CAD with the ever-present threat of Canadian tariffs from Trump. Protectionism is excellent at the best of times...let alone in the middle of a pandemic... right 🥺 The unwinding is picking up speed - RSI on track for the decline and pressure looks set to carry us into the 70 handle. => A possible breakdown can also now be met with the USDCAD flows. As you can see, the CAD weakness has affected the basing structure and now sellers of the Canadian Dollar will deprive buyers the fruits of their deeply laid plans of Dollar devaluation across the board. Thanks to a little tactical finesse, to this trade.
TVC:CXYShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | CADCHF Market Commentary 2020.07.01📌 Marking the start of Short-term flows with CADCHF... The initial move down was grandiose which, however, was not strictly able to test the 0.690x lows. Sellers would have won the battle easily and continued the breakdown via weaker CAD fundamentals. => Instead luring unaware buyers into a compression range to later suffer from an embarrassment of a further breakdown. Tracking closely the 0.695x support, we all know about the diversionary role that CHF plays in risk, so I shall refrain from further comment. With the clash certainly decided over the coming 'hours' the configuration offers plenty of scope for manoeuvring from the sell side. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.06.17📍 USDCAD On the Canada side... This flow has become particularly interesting over the past few sessions, large macro hands front running BOC and piling into corporate debt and helping CAD hold at these levels. The risk to Canada really comes from the housing market, as soon as the stimulus stabilisers are off there will need to be another miracle to avoid panic selling. With stimulus retreating before the labour market has healed, the pressures on homes will become a blunder. This is so obvious and would be a blunder to miss. Now we are tracking a return back home, to the mean in a good mood - If buyers resign on the retest we can see the wave truncated (we'll keep updating the charts for this one). For those tracking EURCAD ...
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Breakout in Canadian 10Y YieldsWe are going to intentionally cycle through many Yield chart updates, which will be rolled out over the next few days. The game of currency speculation must include Yield analysis to have a compromising effect. It is evident that the exchange in control at the 0.48x lows has lead to a change in momentum. Buyers have forced the technical break and negated the current downtrend, this is a loud warning sign that sellers need to start treading more skilfully. The directional change means buyers must now advance towards 0.85x and 1.07x and absorb the remaining pressure. Gaining tempo with the breakout cannot be dismissed with a quick shrug of the shoulders either!! Buyers have shown courage, intentionally forming a basing pattern at the 0.48x lows and have completely outplayed late sellers. Look to target 0.85x and 1.07x for the second half of 2020. Depending on the handling of the recovery we can explode to the topside here and unlock 1.325 and 1.844. We can come back to this idea when our wheat blooms. Good luck and thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
TVC:CA10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | OPEC, CAD and Everything In-Between...The OPEC theatre was an event for the masses, attended by unimaginable liquidity. Packed into enormous press conferences and expensive photoshoots so that the masses would be amused by the raucous discourse or moved by the collaboration. The plot seemed to contain the essence of desperation from Trump, in its concentrated and dramatic form all in attempt of saving US producers rather than saving lives... (sadly) Global Equities turning down is a faster way to get things through congress these days. Consider the following swing, which arose after the Aramco attacks last year: As the main battleground for which China, Russia and Saudis chose to swing in an attempt to play US shale. Remember it essentially boils down to the Gold:Oil ratio being a gauge of the health in petrodollar. A simple cheatsheet... lower gold:oil ratio = a healthy petrodollar structure. On the other side, if ratio rises it shows that the petrodollar market is under pressure (which has been the case for the last few years). It has found a floor at +/- 15 and now moves up towards 86 !!!! ... This is sending loud loud alarm signals that something is rotten from within. Once Saudis began selling Oil in CNY this exploded, it's a buyers market and the seller (Saudis) will always do what it takes to keep the buyers (China) happy...Sure all sounds interesting @ridethepig, So what does this mean for CNY, USD and CAD? I highly recommend digging deeper into how PBOC and CNY has responded since " The Great Lockdown " In warfare, PBOC are playing the leading role with gusto! They are skilled horsemen and took pride in setting a hard floors across Chinese Equities, always positioning in value areas which we traded together here live 4 or 5 times since the crash. This bravery (if you can call it that) has flooded their FX reserves and combined with the composition restructuring we spoke about earlier in their biggest expense (Energy) towards the lows it effectively adds stability to their current account...meaning after all the dust settles from Covid-19, it's game, set and match for China: After understanding the 'why' and 'how' behind the devaluation of Oil, you will notice how the OPEC meetings (or chariot races as I now like to call them) have become more and more extravagant. The renewed organising of longs in USDCAD dips is coming from a weak medium term outlook for CAD and the increased probability of USD taking charge once more of the haven flows, should we see another sell-off in stocks. It has been a difficult chapter but one that has seen a lot of light thrown on the subject thanks to the dissections we've performed live here together. As can be seen in the long-term Oil chart, a test of $15 eventually looks organic although we are entering in the final stages of the drama so I prefer to play this in USDCAD. You will find further considerations of the swings in the related ideas. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming. Jump in with your views below!
Long
by ridethepig
7
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Long
by joebrownFX
1
ridethepig | CADNOK Market Commentary 2020.03.02Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC. For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year: I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at 1mbpd and would therefore recommend trading a bounce in risk markets. The view of a cut from BoC this week seems a done-deal too - this will start the round of global easing. On the technical side, targeting a fresh breakdown into the stops at 6.8xx. Invalidation is found above the recent highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
1