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ridethepig | CADNOK 2020 Macro Map A good time to map the strategy and flows for CADNOK as we approach year-end. As you will have noticed I am tracking for a major pullback in the cross over the first half in 2020, this is coming from large macro forces at play. Central bank coordination has opened up the opportunity for NOK to outperform CAD. Firstly the reflation theme via USD devaluation is going to help Canada a lot less than the rest as Canada will receive a spillover from the US manufacturing recession. Secondly we need to discuss the impact of Oil across both economies. CAD and NOK are affected by oil with divergencies in their breakevens. For example Canada breakevens are circa $45 compared with Norway at $23 per barrel. Meaning simply Norway has more breathing room for the fall in Oil: The third and final leg to the stool is coming from yield differentials. After the more dovish than expected shift in stance from BoC, the window is open for a cut which has not been fully priced while Norges which was previously the last hawk standing has hit the pause button. I personally see room for another hike from Norges next year which is the leg I am looking to trade here. Best of luck all those in CADNOK, a very good pair to add to your FX portfolio.
Short
by ridethepig
USD/CAD Waiting BoCBoC rate decision is the main focus today. For the past 2 weeks, USD/CAD has been traded in a tight range and while no changes are expected from the central bank, Governor Poloz's speech will be watched closely. He could continue to talk about the possibility of an “insurance cut” in coming months, as uncertainty of trade war persists. If Poloz focuses on the downside risks for the economy, USD/CAD could break upward easily but if he emphasizes the appropriateness of current policy, USD/CAD should fall deeply. Also note that in the middle of Nov. the H4 50-day SMA crosses above the 200 SMA. This crossover, known as a ‘golden cross’, is a bullish sign for the pair. On the upside, 1.3327 (high of the current range) is the next resistance line. A clear break above 1.3327 will resume the rise from 1.3042 to 1.3346/82 (October and September's highs) resistance zone. Firm break there will suggest completion of medium-term consolidation from 1.3664. On the downside, a break of 1.3190 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3042 support.
by ForexTrendline
Watch Out: BoC Meeting Could Trigger Massive H&S PatternA promising setup is forming in CAD/CHF on the 4-hour/daily chart. The pair is forming a H&S pattern, but the price has faced some buying pressure at the neckline this morning. A break below 0.7420 would signal a selling opportunity, with a profit target of around 200 pips (or at least at the August lows around 0.7270). The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow for the rate decision. This will likely be a catalyst for the pair - holding rates steady would push the price up (neckline acting as support), while an unexpected rate cut would trigger a selloff in CAD.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
ridethepig | USDCAD 2020 Macro MapThis chart is for those mapping USDCAD over the coming Quarters; a clean and simple strategy targeting the lows of 1.27xx by mid 2020 before finding somewhat of a bounce back towards the 1.30xx handle by year-end. Main theme behind the flows is coming from dollar devaluation, I would recommend all to follow the Macro Dollar charts I have posted: The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation will allow CAD to outperform in the immediate term. There are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. A wide range which is already starting to show signs of cracking the downside: Best of luck all those trading USDCAD into year-end with dollar devaluation underway, this is going to be a monster swing with fireworks on both sides.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ORBEX:Loonie Bid on Poloz As Impeachment Hearing Goes Unnoticed!In today’s market insights video recording I talk about markets’ muted reaction to the impeachment hearings and focus on the assets that moved! USDCAD was bid on a hawkish Poloz as he lowered down markets' expectations of a Dec rate cut. Loonie was also supported by OPEC+ likely production cut extension. While at it, I also analyse EURUSD despite it ended the session somewhat muted as volatility increased. We are also minutes before German GDP and Lagarde’s speech! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
GBPCAD Tea PartyEver seen such a big tea party? Life is all above imagination . Canada’s economic data point to the need for monetary stimulus. Analysts believe that BOC Governor Poloz may finally hint about easing today when he gives a speech in Toronto. The pound has been on a roll as the possibility of a no-deal Brexit becomes more unlikely. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to unveil his party’s election manifesto, which could shake the pound up some. 1.7450 that marks areas of interest on the higher time frames.
by Anatta0
2
Aussie Vs Loonie (AUD/CAD) Trade Strategy and PlanTraders sold the Aussie like no tomorrow when the minutes of RBA's meeting indicated members expected another rate cut in November. We are worried about Australia's major trading partners ' economic slowdown; contraction in housing construction activity; outlook for consumption; wage growth; inflation; and domestic growth. Ultimately, the latest papers point out that when they meet next, RBA leaders will slash their rates in February. Trade tensions in the U.S .- China pressured crude oil prices and lead it to fall lower further. Also, Russia isn't inclined to cut production more deeply at the December 5 OPEC meeting and that means the market is likely to remain oversupplied in early-2020 . Carolyn A. Wilkins (Speech): The market is focusing on the line that there is 'room to maneuver'. Don't think she's sending a signal here but any time there is the talk of cuts (and QE), that's the knee-jerk. USD/CAD touched a session high of 1.3264 from 1.3230 before the comments and AUDCAD had an effect too. Canada also did not publish outstanding posts. Canada’s manufacturing sales took a step back in September. CPI reports (Nov 20), Poloz Speaks (Nov 21) and Retail Sales (Nov 22) will clearly provide additional optimism or pessimism hint to traders for the loonie. Positive turn in global risk sentiment may also help traders to think to get out of safe havens and into risk currencies like the Loonie. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Nov 21) from Australia should be taken care of. We should take this information in mind throughout the week if we trade in this cross pair or any Aussie or Loonie being as base or variable (counter).
by Anatta0
3
LOONIE Likely To test 1.30600 After EMA 50 & Trendline Break Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
Bank Of America (BAC) Calm Before The StormBank Of America has been on a rise after the 2008 US Stock Market crash. No coincidence as many US companies have been rising since then. This is not an excuse to get off track and believe all is good now. If you take a look at the bigger picture, you can see this company has had a decline soo huge, even the attempts to pump the value back to pre-2008 figures has been failing. There is still much to go for the rise before this stock can become stable again. It will need to take a wild spike along with some sort of unimaginable great news to spike prices back up that high to over $54.00/share. With that being said, I will stick to my technical's and as of now it is bearish. The chart along with my own technical analysis should explain the rest to the crowd. Just be patient and avoid greed in these times of uncertainty. I am prepared to go long if price signals me to do so, but my overall bias is short.
NYSE:BAC
by bajapips
CADCHF Sell opportunityIf you don't want to buy AUDCAD, consider selling CADCHF, since they mostly move relative to each other and selling pressure is significantly higher on this pair. Again we see a broken trendline, ascending this time, awaiting a possible retest. We also see the presence of the 61.8 Fibonacci level that could also present a temporary support, even though I believe that the price has already reacted to the level and will continue downwards. Overall sentiment is bearish. Good luck and follow me for more! (excuse the money triangle)
Short
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
AUDCAD Buy opportunityAfter a recurring descending trendline breakout and obvious bear cessation, the price hit a powerful support made visible by a double bottom. Another descending trendline was also broken awaiting a possible retest whereby I will place my long position with a Stop below a secondary support not far from the trendline. However, if there is no retracement I will look to place my long positions above the current target/resistance. Good luck and follow me for more ideas!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
USDCAD Likely To Test 1.3000 Amid Stubborn BOC and Risk ON Mood!The main chart shows the WEEKLY TF of USDCAD pair. There was a neat ascending channel that was violated a few months ago and the price went to test around 1.30200 level. Since then the price has been steadily rising until it HIT 1.33600 level. This created a short term ascending channel which was clearly violated a couple of days back and now the price is likely to target 1.3000 level. The above chart shows the DAILY TF of USDCAD, which shows the channel has been violated and its potential target! The main chart shows the price has been confined in a triangle and the price is likely to target the lower end of the trendline which lies at around 1.3000 level. To support this technical aspects, the fundamental aspects also align neatly together. First of all the Bank of CANADA left the interest unchanged and continue their wait and see approach rather than just easing like the other central banks. This is bullish for the LOONIE, however i feel the price will hit 1.3000 level after which the bank will start to be dovish and the price will likely bounce and test the 1.34000 level in the future. To add to this, the demand for OIL at the moment is adequate as the talks of trade deal continue. Since OIL is the major driver behind this CAD pair, if the talks continue to progress well we could see LOONIE get stronger. I am already short on USDCAD since 3 months ago when the main weekly channel broke, however the price only HIT 1.30200 level before reversing. My take profit at the moment is 1.3000 with SL at 1.34000. Should you wish to enter you can do so if and only if the RR is 1 or greater than 1. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis