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RBA Holds, BoE Expected to Cut in Volatile Week Two major central bank decisions this week join the U.S. election as key events for markets, with interest rate reductions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England being considered. The RBA will announce its decision Tuesday (local time), with economists polled by Reuters forecasting no change to the current 4.35% cash rate. Persistently robust economic activity and sticky core inflation are thought to be keeping the central bank cautious. All major Australian banks—ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac—expect the RBA to hold steady through year-end, projecting the first rate cut to come in February 2025. Meanwhile, the BoE is anticipated to lower its Bank Rate by 25-basis points on Thursday (local time), bringing it to 4.75%, according to a Reuters poll. Last week Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves unveiled an unexpectedly large increase in borrowing and public spending, which prompted the Office for Budget Responsibility to raise inflation forecasts. However, analysts suggest that these fiscal moves won’t likely disrupt the BoE’s path toward a rate cut this week.
by BlackBull_Markets
BoE's plans for additional rate cuts are in conflict Expectations are mounting that the BoE would implement additional rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that inflation is decreasing more rapidly than anticipated. The UK CPI for September registered at 1.7%, falling short of the central bank's 2% target, which has intensified speculation about upcoming rate increases. Wall Street is convinced that with UK inflation already below the target, there's a strong likelihood of additional rate cuts in November and December following the recent 25bp reduction. However, there are concerns regarding the potential aftereffects of hasty rate cuts. BoE economist Catherine Mann emphasizes that, despite a general slowdown in inflation, service price inflation continues to soar. She warns that an impulsive rate hike could reignite inflationary pressures. GBPUSD advanced to the 1.3000 threshold. After breaching the descending channel’s upper bound, the price holds above both EMAs, signaling a trend reversal. If GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3045, the price may gain upward momentum toward 1.3265. Conversely, if GBPUSD fails to hold above both EMAs, the price may break the channel’s upper bound again and re-enter the descending channel.
by inkicho_exness
GBP/USD drops below 1.30 on soft inflation reportThe British pound has finally showed some movement on Wednesday after a week of limited movement. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2992, down 0.62% on the day. The pound fell below the symbolic 1.30 level for the first time since August 20. The UK inflation report for September was projected to hit a milestone and fall below the BoE’s 2% target, but the reading exceeded expectations. CPI fell to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest level since April 2021 and was driven by lower prices for petrol and airfares. Services inflation, which has been stubbornly high, dropped from 5.6% y/y to 4.9%, its lowest level since May 2022. Monthly, CPI was flat, below 0.3% in August and below the market estimate of 0.1%. Core CPI also decelerated in September and was lower than expected (3.2% y/y and 0.1% m/m). As well, wage growth slowed to 4.9% in the three months to August, down from 5.1% previously. The Bank of England will be encouraged by the drop in inflation and in wages. The UK economy is groaning under the weight of a cash rate of 5% and the markets are looking at a rate cut in November as a done deal, while a December cut is a strong possibility. Many major central banks have shifted their primary focus from inflation risks to the labor market, and we could see the same with the BoE, now that inflation is back below the BoE’s target. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3071, 1.3039 and 1.3004. The next support level is 1.2972 1.3106 and 1.3138 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD - will inflation data shake up the pound?The British pound has been showing limited movement for over a week. In Tuesday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3086, up 0.13% on the day. The Bank of England has largely won the battle against inflation, which has fallen from double digits at its peak to just 2.2% in August and July. Inflation is expected to dip to 1.9% in September thanks to lower petrol prices, reflective of the decline in crude oil prices. This would be a milestone as inflation has been above the BoE’s target since April 2021. Monthly, inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food and is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, is also expected to decline, from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y and 0.4% to 0.3% m/m. The BoE has cut rates only once this year and if inflation falls below 2% as expected, the calls for the central bank to cut rates will get louder. Inflation is falling, the economy is barely growing and the cash rate remains very high at 5%. The current trend has been to cut rates - the European Central Bank has lowered rates several times and even the Federal Reserve cut in September by 50 basis points. If the BoE doesn’t cut before the end of the year, it risks becoming an outlier among the major central banks. Governor Bailey has made conflicting comments about whether the BoE needs to get moving and  cut rates. It will be interesting to hear the Governor’s reaction to the latest inflation numbers. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3076. Above, there is resistance at 1.3129 1.3016 and 1.2963 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Pound shrugs as UK economy grew by 0.2%The British pound is showing little movement on Friday in what has been a very quiet week for the currency. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3071, up 0.10% on the day and its lowest level. The UK economy showed slight improvement in August with a 0.2% m/m gain, after no growth in both June and July. This was in line with expectations and the pound’s reaction has been muted. Services, construction and manufacturing were all in positive territory, as the economy continues to show signs of growth. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1%, up from a revised 0.9% in August but shy of the market estimate of 1.4%. The slight rebound in the economy comes at a convenient time for the government, which will release the autumn Budget on October 30. The government is counting on the Bank of England to continue cutting rates in order to boost economic growth. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has said that kick-starting the weak UK economy is the “number one priority. The Bank of England delivered its first rate cut of the new cycle in August but stayed on the sidelines in September. The next meeting is on November 7 and the UK releases inflation and employment data ahead of the meeting, which will likely determine whether Bank policy makers feel comfortable making another quarter-point cut. The US wraps up the week with the producer price index for September. Headline PPI is expected to tick lower to 1.7% y/y, compared to 1.6% in August. The core rate, however, is projected to rise to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in August. With inflation largely beaten, the Federal Reserve’s primary focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Still, an unexpected PPI reading in either direction could have an impact on the movement of the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3058. Above, there is resistance at 1.3095 1.3023 and 1.2986 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BoE is dovisher than the Fed. Will Sterling continue to fall? Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in response to ongoing inflation decline has intensified apprehensions about the BoE's hawkish monetary policy. It is also worth noting that the UK Treasury is expected to present a budget with tax hikes and austerity measures. This could exert pressure on near-term growth for the UK economy and lead to a decline in the value of the Sterling. GBPUSD maintained its downtrend and fell to 1.3060. The widening distance between both EMAs suggests a bearish momentum. If GBPUSD breaks the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3250 and holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBPUSD- Short-Term Trade SetupThe reaction of GBPUSD to the Bank of England's interest rate decision has been fairly muted. In the short term, we're looking for selling opportunities, aiming for a deeper reversal towards the 1.3146 level. Key levels to watch: Target 1: 1.3146 If price breaks below 1.3146, the next target is 1.3000. Stop-loss recommendations: Technical Stop: 1.3322 Conservative Stop: 1.3265 Keep these levels in mind as you plan your trades.
Short
by Charts247TradingAcademy
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD extends gains as retail sales bounce backThe British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. There was more good news from the UK economy as retail sales rebounded in July by 0.5% m/m, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June and in line with the market estimate. Annually, GDP surged 1.4%, compared to -0.8% in June and matching the market estimate. The pound has moved higher in response to the positive retail sales data. The bounce in retail sales reflects summer discounts and purchases related to the Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics, such as apparel. As well, with inflation finally under control and running close to 2%, consumers are responding by opening up their wallets and purses. The positive retail sales report follows yesterday’s solid GDP release. The UK economy recorded rose 0.6% in Q2, a second straight quarter of growth. The economy is showing some strength in the second quarter but that may not have much effect on the Bank of England’s rate path. The increase in growth may not be sustainable and BoE policy makers have said that they are more focused on inflation, particularly service inflation, which remains much higher than the BoE’s 2% target. The markets are expecting further cutting before the end of the year and have priced in a rate reduction at the November meeting. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2884. Above, there is resistance at 1.2914 1.2841 and 1.2811 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips after strong US retail salesThe British pound posted losses earlier but has clawed back and is in positive territory. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2846 in the North American session, up 0.20% on the day. After sustaining a technical session in the second half of 2023, the UK economy is on a rebound. GDP climbed 0.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations and a notch lower than the Q1 gain of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, GDP rose 0.9%, up from 0.3% and in line with the market estimate. The annualized gain was the strongest growth rate since Q3 of 2022. The strong GDP data comes on the heels of yesterday’s inflation release. CPI for July rose to 2.2%, above the June gain of 2% but below the market estimate of 2.3%. The strong GDP could mean a pause at the September rate meeting. The markets are expecting the next rate cut in November, after the Bank of England delivered the first cut of the new rate-cutting cycle earlier this month. The US economy may have lost a step but don’t count the US consumer out. Retail sales jumped 1% m/m in July, up sharply from a revised -0.2% and blowing past the market estimate of 0.3%. The strong consumer spending data supports a modest rate cut of 25 basis points. Last week’s rout in the global markets raised expectations of a massive 50-basis point cut as a response to fears of a deterioration in the US economy. These fears have been allayed somewhat but if the US posts further weak numbers we could see panic return to the markets. GBP/USD pushed above resistance at 1.2838 earlier and is testing resistance at 1.2857. Above there is resistance at 1.2889 1.2706 and 1.2787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs as UK CPI rises less than expectedThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2844 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Headline inflation in the UK rose 2.2% y/y in July, up from 2% in June but below the market estimate of 2.3%. Perhaps most important for the Bank of England, services inflation slowed to 5.2%, the lowest since June 2022 and well below the BoE’s forecast of 5.6%. Monthly, inflation fell 0.2% in July, down from 0.1% in June and the first decline in six months. Core inflation fell from 3.5% y/y to 3.3% and monthly from 0.2% to 0.1%, also below expectations. The soft inflation report supports the case for another rate cut in September, which the money markets have priced in at 45%. The BoE joined the new phase of the central banking cycle when it cut rates on August 1 by a quarter-point to 5%. The BoE meets next on September 19. The UK released a mixed employment report on Tuesday. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in the second quarter, down from 4.4% in Q1 and wage growth with bonuses slowed from a revised 5.8% y/y to 5.4%, its lowest level in two years. Still, this was much higher than the market estimate of 4.6% and is much higher than the inflation rate. Unemployment claims shot up to 135 thousand in July, blowing past the market estimate of revised 36.2 thousand and the market estimate of 4.6%.  There is resistance at 1.2833 and 1.2903  1.2792 and 1.2722 are the next support levels
by OANDA
British pound calm ahead of UK jobs reportThe British pound is drifting on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2768 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. The UK releases the employment report for the three months to June and we could see signs of a cooling labour market. Annualized average earnings including bonuses, which has hovered between 5.5%-6% all year, is expected to fall sharply to 4.6%. The previous reading came in at 5.7%, the lowest since September 2022. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 4.4% for the past two readings, the highest since September 2021. Unemployment is expected to nudge up to 4.5% in the three months to June. This would signal that the labor market is weakening and would make If wage growth declines and the unemployment rate rises in tomorrow’s report, it would support the case for the Bank of England delivering another rate cut, perhaps as soon as next month. The BoE meets on September 19, just one day after the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by at least a quarter-point. The BoE joined the central bank trend of cutting rates earlier this month when it lowered rates by a quarter-point to 5%. We have entered a new phase of the central bank cycle, with most of the major central banks having already lowered rates. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower rates at the September meeting, but by how much? Just one month ago, the markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 90%, according to the CME’s FedWatch, but then the US posted some weak numbers and the financial markets sank. This has boosted the likelihood of a half-point cut, which on Friday was around a 50/50 split with a quarter-point cut. Still, not everybody who has a say is urging a rate cut. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a voting member on the FOMC, said on Friday that she is hesitant about cutting rates, since inflation is “uncomfortably above” the 2% target and the labor market remains strong. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2779. Above, there is resistance at 1.2801 1.2753 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 1.2731
by OANDA
Double Bottom w/ Break of Confirmation!! - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the Daily chart! The Lows @ .83972 & .83827 seem to have found enough Support in this Zone since its last visit back in the summer of 2022! After BOE decided to cut their Interest Rates to 5% on Thursday, we see the end of the week gave us quite a Bullish close above the Lower High @ .8490 CONFIRMING the Double Bottom Reversal Pattern!! With the: -Divergence of Price vs RSI @ Level of Support -Break of Structure from LL to HH -and Price on RSI Above 50 *All that's left is to wait for Price to retrace back down to the .8490 area where the Break of Confirmation of Pattern happened for some potential Buy Opportunities!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
GBP/USD sharply lower as BoE cuts ratesThe British pound has fallen sharply on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2774 in the North American session, down 0.63% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD fell to 1.2750, its lowest level in a month. For those readers who like to follow the central banks (as the writer does), it has been a very interesting week. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate, while the Bank of England opted to cut rates. The BoE delivered a rate cut earlier today, the first time it has lowered rates in over four years. The quarter-point trim lowered the cash rate to an even 5%. The meeting was live as the markets remained uncertain right until decision time as to whether the Bank would hold or cut rates. Ahead of the meeting, the markets priced in a 61% probability of a quarter-point cut, which made for many surprised investors after the decision. Interestingly, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of a cut, with four members voting to hold rates. The markets had expected a 6-3 vote, which meant that Governor Bailey barely pushed the rate cut through. The BoE didn’t provide any hints on the future rate path, but we could see more cutting later in the year if inflation continues on its current downtrend. Headline inflation fell to 2%, the BoE’s target rate, in May and June, although services inflation remains much higher at 5.7%. The Federal Reserve held its meeting on Wednesday and it was a virtual certainty that it would maintain rates for a seventh straight time. Fed Chair gave the markets what they wanted, as he hinted broadly at a rate cut in September. Powell said that the Fed was more confident that inflation is heading towards the 2% target and the rate statement indicated that inflation was less of an issue than at the June meeting.  GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2830 and 1.2793. Below, there is support at 1.2737 1.2886  and 1.2993 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country. The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Levels discussed on Livestream 1st August 1st August DXY: Found support at 104, retracing, if above 104.20 could test 104.40. (wait for retracement to complete before continuation lower) NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 55 AUDUSD: Do nothing, look for reaction at 0.65 USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete at 151, Sell 150.75 SL 45 TP 170 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2770 SL 20 TP 65 (BoE decision pending) EURUSD: Sell 1.0795 SL 20 TP 55 USDCHF: Buy 0.8770 SL 25 TP 60 USDCAD: Look for reaction at 1.39 Gold: Could retrace to test 2430, look for rebound to 2450, beyond that 2480
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut. We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate cut, leaving Governor Andrew Bailey to cast the deciding vote. Market sentiment, however, remains more divided. Although, the investor outlook is gradually aligning with the expectation of a rate reduction with a slight majority predicting that rates will be cut. Over in the US, the nonfarm payrolls report is forecasted to show a decline from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July. Contrary to this consensus, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen predicts a significant rise in nonfarm payrolls to 225,000 for July, the highest since March. While the July jobs report may not drastically shift the Federal Reserve's policy direction, it will be pivotal in solidifying expectations for a rate cut in September.
by BlackBull_Markets
Pressure Builds Ahead of Major Central Bank Marathon It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation. The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40% chance of no change. A lack of action could undermine the yen's recent gains with a potential resistance at 155.30 (100 MA). The Fed's announcement is scheduled for Wednesday. Market expectations for a rate cut are just 5%. Investors are keenly awaiting any signals regarding a potential move in September. Finally, the Bank of England has the market guessing with an almost 50 –50 chance for a cut. GBP traders are also digesting a key speech from the new finance minister Rachel Reeves in which she unveiled plans for some spending cuts/ or tax increases to fill a £22bn spending shortfall that was 'covered up' by the Conservative government. Traders now also have 30th October to look forward to as the date of the autumn budget.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD at 1-year high as UK CPI remains at 2%The British pound continues to roll and is up for a sixth straight day. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038 in the European session, up 0.51% on the day. The pound has sparkled in July, climbing 3% and hitting its highest level since July 2023. UK consumer inflation remained at 2% y/y in July, unchanged from June. This was higher than the market estimate of 1.9% but it’s hard to complain when inflation is at the BoE’s 2% target for two months running. Monthly, inflation dipped to 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier, and matching the market estimate. Core inflation rose 3.5% y/y, unchanged from June and matching the market estimate. Monthly, core inflation dropped from 0.5% to 0.2%, below the market estimate of 0.1%. The inflation report was positive and the pound responded by extending its impressive July rally. The fly in the ointment was services inflation, which the Bank of England watches keenly for signs of domestic inflationary pressure. Services inflation has been an outlier and was unchanged at 5.7% in July. How will the BoE view the inflation report? Overall the release was positive, but services inflation is almost three times higher than the 2% target, which is a concern for policy makers. The cash rate is currently at 5.25%, unchanged since August 2023 when inflation was 7.9%. There is pressure on the BoE to provide relief and hit the rate-cut trigger but the central bank may lack the confidence to make a move at the next meeting on August 1. The remainder of the week will be busy, with the UK releasing the employment report on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3008. Above, there is resistance at 1.3051 1.2987 and 1.2944 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBPUSD H8 - Sell SignalGBPUSD H8 Converse to AUDUSD analysis above. We also have the likes of GBPUSD here in front of us, where we have seen a rejection from 1.28500 price, a half number acting as resistance. If we look to the left on this chart, on June 12, you'll notice and aggressive selloff. This formed an attractive area of supply. We have a few confluence in and around this 1.28500 price, so it's certainly a zone to keep an eye on for USD strength resumption. A double top on 1.28500 could be a great sell signal.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX