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ridethepig | Notes on GBPUSD📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 ==> What we must track here is the buyers playing $1.360x and reaching overdone levels. The exchanging between UK and Europe is coming to an end, meaning the focus can shift towards the complete 'liberation' of the UK from which it was previously 'restricted'. So, in such cases, when a country loses market access the central bank gets bogged down with devaluation, and in these cases it means we should be able to employ offers with the same stratagem from when Johnson was initially elected. This sort of tendency to going down and roll back up the whole swing, is what I would call the cleansing of the board. It is a move which is aimed at whiping the ladder and opening up the dominating (and appropriate story) at the time which is the well being of the UK and woes of which will determine the actions. A very plausible move we played earlier in the month, and of course after the bounce up I am sure there is hesitancy to play it again. Now I am looking for signs of a top at $1.357x / $1.360x and the threat of a hammer down is greater than ever. GBP buyers have not played very economically and are hung by a thread of support. Sunak announcing the furlough package any minute, this expensive fiscal deal is far from any stretch of the imagination a conservative policy... The exploitation of the terrain up here, namely the squeeze, will force all soft hand retail to close and into a state of confusion. Stay alert, avoid the noise and play the leg down...we might get the waterfall for Christmas. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary GBPUSD This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing. I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect sellers to aggressively defend the resistance move. The strength of the USD should in no way be underestimated. And suddenly we are reaching the nucleus of the retracement. Clarification of the manoeuvre.... The majority are thinking that a dinner for two tonight between Johnson and VDL will consist of progress, instead I think the can will be once again kicked and create some kind of diversion. At the same time, we are going to use technicals here to show the nucleus. I shall choose a typical ABC retracement as an example of the flows to link and fade. In this case 1.345x is being blocked from the previous orderblock which we traded live: The threat of another leg lower interrupting all lines of communication between GBP buyers on one hand and risk on the other. Therefore we should track the necessity of trapping out opponent on the highs. If you know the thoughts of your opponent, it is easy to assimilate the concept of a counter attack; a flank which will hammer the currency in a naturally speculative way. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
33
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 02.12.2020This point of view, relying on the soundness of the highs, which has been proved, will be vital to our success, because it is what we are leaning on and it is giving us a chance to pull the trigger in a somewhat cheap area in terms of risk. But the risk is as follows: if the only way to achieve liquidation is a sweep above mentioned highs, the possibility of running stops on a headline is still NOT zero. So what are the possibilities of our stops getting hit? It is not an easy one to answer. It depends on a closer look at the timing, it is always more important than price, the only reason GBP is not trading at 1.20 and 1.15 is namely the dollar devaluation and some more details around a deal which can still follow. I would like to anticipate that it was all too easy for UK to push through Pfizer and consider it an important advance on softening brexit headlines that are still to come. Allow appropriate room for the stops incase of that possible thrust, a single towards 1.285 and 1.20 is sufficient. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURGBP grinding higherBarnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as CFO...Brexit was always political fairy-dust, a last despairing effort to continue the 'empire' which was immediately countered via the powerful Klaus Schwab at WEF and etc. 📍 The lows are now protected and in good shape. Of course, you are right to think the threat is for them to sweep the lows, just like how buyers played the interesting line of sweeping the highs in GBPUSD before crashing: I love it when a story comes together. The next leg here is higher for EURGBP, London is vacating its seat at the table (in the short-term at least) and sharp speculators are well aware. Much better to look for a test of the highs here, as we shall see, an important few weeks. I completely understand why some voted for Brexit, unfortunately in such a scenario there is always the question: which carries more weight globally, the UK or the EU? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Chart of the Week📌 ridethepig | Chart of the Week This illustrates the struggle of the retrace. Motto: first map, then position, and finally destroy. Those that remember the infamous chart from Johnson elections will remember we are back to square one, another year has passed with the direction focused on a necessary component of 'how to make the country less worse off'. This direction alone does restrain the freeing advance, more thoroughly than any other set-up. Bravo! Sellers were not afraid of the 1.35 highs before, because strong play in negotiations or not it could never bring down the outflows from Brexit; and with Trump winning in doubt it is restraining the pressure of Johnson to drive back to the EU side. A breakdown is there for the taking. Good luck all those attempting to play it.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | FTSE Fundamental FlowsHere we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance. Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity! If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under pressure with the initial loss of market access and broader global slowdown. Once again (and with slow and steady pace) start to build some sell side exposure, abandon the overweight UK equities position and employ the following manoeuvres. A test of the centre looks rolled up and ready to take. Make excellent use of the flow towards 5,600. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | GBP Trade of the Week♟ Another clear map for us to play with Brexit and the U.S. elections acting as the main price drivers. A double top is a purely tactical weapon. It is terrible compelling; even for the most unaware retailers who will jump in - so we are tracking for flows driven to the lows after a double top. We shall close this Brexit chapter with some strong short GBP trades. (1). In the following EURGBP things are coming down to an interesting break unlocking the 1.00x levels: GBP sellers have of course got the control, they are winning the continuation as long as 1.306x is holding (note the importance of this resistance, it should be safe and sound). What we must take into account is the tactical manoeuvre of the slimy politicians and any headlines around a brexit deal. To the downside, 1.291x as an initial target with 1.267x the bigger level below. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
6
Pound fell sharp as BoE Gov Bailey not seeing V shaped recoveryThe Bank of England asked banks on 12th October on how ready they are for zero or negative interest rates, following up its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if necessary. The BOE set a deadline of Nov. 12 a week after its next monetary policy announcement for banks to respond. Money Markets are expecting BOE's next move to be an increase in the 745 billion Pound bond buying program in November. Technically, GBPUSD came out fom upward rising channel in 4hr with a break of channel support at 1.2960 or 50ma heading towards 1.2845-50 Oct 10th low. A break upside 50ma again can rise towards 1.2980 or 200ma and 1.3082 Oct 12th high. As we see a small retrace to the todays pivot point at 1.2955-60 would be a selling zone freshly for downside said targets. Overall sell on rise is advised for the day. Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD FROM 1.2950-60 SL ABV 1.3030 TGT 1.2880/2830 ELSE BUY GBPUSD FROM 1.3030 FOR 1.3120 WITH SL BELOW 1.2950
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
EURGBP Plausible Long Setup.Fundamentally, GBP is still very weak. The economy is on verge of another stand still with a potential second lock down imminent as Boris already changing lock down rules in England and other parts of the UK struggling too. Par the BOE news this morning, there are not many positives the UK are facing. In fact, the BOE interest rate cuts to negative was just an idea that the BOE are looking to get into to help recover the huge GDP loss the country is having. I do not think is suitable thing to do for them as of now with a second wave of corona lockdown so close to happening. Technically all is labelled. Just waiting for candle confirmations. Hopefully all can be done before Thursday where BOE have another news announcement.
Long
by a194Forex
ridethepig | Oven Ready GBP Chart PackThe economic landscape and political development 📌 What the less advanced participants must know about the Brexit saga and economic development First a few reminders. We call the resistance area drawn across the first chart our ' Loading Zone ', and here the word 'loading' is used in a trading sense and not its progressive sense. The 1.23xx and 1.15xx are considered the 'absolute lows' in the current range (once again in a strictly trading sense). It is easy to find the centre, positioned where the scaffolding supports our price structure. By defining our centre, we have created technical borders around the price, in other words the map of our flows (1.35xx, 1.23xx and 1.15xx). 1️⃣ By political development, I mean the reckless retreat of UK market access in the short-term The procedure to return to WTO rules is the same as the advance towards the house of economic bondage; whether you want to argue about sovereignty or debate migration, the loss of market access in the immediate term will damage the UK real economy. No-deal Brexit is coming in October despite the political fairy dust and attempts from the Supreme Court to 'take back control'. A ruthless Downing Street hijacked the entire country and are at the wheel aiming to cause maximum pain to the economy in the near term with their edenistic view of rebuilding into 2030 and beyond. So "development" of UK exposure is not really in play for the next 1-2 or even 3 years, but the idea is much rather that UK assets should be redeveloped from lower levels. It is good - if I may say so - from a markets perspective with the spirit of volatility in mind. However, from a humanist and democratic perspective there is a major threat. For example, think how undemocratic it would be to break international laws, destabilise the union and undermine previous commitments (we are not talking about a Banana republic, rather the country of the Magna Carta!!). It's very difficult to find any Brexiteers on the ground that truly wanted no-deal - let alone support for Johnson. 2️⃣ The global economic landscape must not be considered in itself to be healthy, but rather simply an environment which helps politicians pass the blame. This is an important notion for all those following the covid dominos . The advance of Covid has given cover, where possible for politicians globally to develop counter arguments for nationalism without the criticism from the public. Because, as we have discussed together before, the end of the economic cycle is an unavoidable chapter in the sense that the economy, as with all things in life cycles naturally. For that reason, we should first position for a breakdown in the UK currency. The following chart demonstrates the unavoidable cycle down: Since the economic cycle down will last into 2021/2022, we may characterise the advances in equities as noise for our purposes as the equity market is not a reflection of the real economy via artificial CB intervention. Now the UK CFO, Rishi Sunak, can be seen like a deer in the headlights. The effect of years and years of policy mistakes? Tax hikes are coming, and the consumer will pick up the bill. On the cable front, sellers position is comfortable from the point of view that the macro direction and confidence in the public sector are blocked via NDB. A breakdown of the wedge would trigger flows towards the centre at 1.23xx and in addition, unlock 1.14xx and 1.05xx the 1985 lows. Invalidation for the bear case would only come from a breach of 1.35xx. So, we can rightfully continue to look for selling opportunities across UK assets, including the currency. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
11
GBPCHF Hawkish BOE is it possible ? Buy the breakoutHello, sideways. Range 1.16 / 1.1500 from the bottom and 1.2050 / 2200 from the top. in case of a surprise hawkish BOE statement (possibly in combination with a Brexit warming) this pair has a chance of a sharp / rapid rise towards 1.2080 / 2200 A breakout and a rise towards 1.19 is the number one point on the checklist The return and retest around 1.1850 / 35 is number two and long entry Stop at 1.1770 1st target 1.2080 Second 1.22 Good luck
Long
by ForexClub_pl
EURGBP Buying dips but first wait for stop hunt....Hello, from the intraday perspective, we are testing the potential demand zone. BOE interest rates decision is great event for more market manipulations, so we can see stop hunt below 0.9080 / 60. If so, then we should see a quick return above 0.9115 / 25, and then a retest of 0.91 which would be a confirmation of long positions :) 1st target 0.9180 / 9210 Complicated ? Maybe a bit, but the chart means more than 100 words :) Good luck
Long
by ForexClub_pl
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.09.16📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the main impact comes on GBP rather than EUR and for those reasons this leg is still being driven from the overarching Pound flows. Another three barrel bluff from Johnson and we are at the mercy to the House of Lords although unlikely they can defend this one. No-deal Brexit looks certain, the cross here can launch to the topside in a +/- 10% move as sterling has to weaken. Adding longs on dips into 0.915x/0.913x for the swing into 0.931x and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP. On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.22🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer considering that no-deal brexit is still to come and counter any short-lived GBP strength. I am fortunate enough to be dealing with an audience who can take a hint and understand when not to believe politicians. It went: Next came: And now we are entering into a whole game, because EURGBP is a good example of how even in FX both sides can align to the same direction and define the central strategy. Here the following line remains that Brexit is giving up competitiveness and market access (at least in the Short-term we can agree whatever your view is on the matter) which opens up the need for currency devaluation. As long as the UK side makes soft, it makes it difficult to build a constructive view on GBP. The latest ‘track and trace’ systems entering into the picture will weigh heavy on consumer confidence and ensure GBP will remain soft. Actively tracking the same loading zones with 0.905x to add longs in EURGBP and 1.270x to load shorts in GBPUSD. A previous example was last year with the elections, but this is no less imaginative. In a situation where both fundamental sides align, EURGBP will be able to turn the 0.91xx handle into a new base for activity which we can handle in an almost virtuoso fashion. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4