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BOE

BUY EURGBPAfter the market was moving in a clear direction during the first 2 weeks of the month, this week we see retention and correction in almost all places. In these moments it is extremely important to be patient so that we can achieve the best possible results in the future! At this point, in our opinion, the best option remains with EURGBP! The price broke the trend line and bounced exactly from 61.8 Fibonacci (0.8862-0.9025). This gives us reason to believe that the correction is over and we will see higher values. Resistance levels: 0.9037 0.9071 0.9172 Critical level for the analysis - 0.8862 NB! Today from 11:00 GMT- BoE Interest Rate Decision Do you have active positions?
Long
by ForexTrendline
77
Dax daily: 18 Jun 2020We were unsure about the price development yesterday as no hints were present. We clearly defined the range of 12 151 - 12 494 and the price stayed there all day long. The session was a slow one with the range being relatively narrow. Dax was moving sideways just to close the day near break even. Our zones remain unchanged. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:30 CEST - SNB Policy Rate + Statement Today's session hypothesis Dax opens the day with a small descending gap. We anticipate the retest of yesterday's close and trading in the defined range. The nearest S/R zones will play a major role and the price action around either of these will be a decisive factor for further price estimation. The breakout will be a major focus for us. We have a day filled with macroeconomic events so stay alert.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.06.15The long run positional struggle for buyers which comes from their immobility to find positives in the Brexit debacle. It is extremely important to note the coming years of UK growth are harmed via the presence of protectionism, the fundamentals have widely been discussed here: With Brexit headlines entering back into play, focus will shift towards NDB repricing as there is little encouragement to see here. The GBP is getting hit badly as expected all last week with EURGBP flirting with the break above 0.90x again. Actively looking to add cable shorts on any rallies into 1.255x. Look to target 1.237x below with stops above 1.265x.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | GBP/AUD Outlook📍 Overview This chart comes after a conversation with @Alamakota. Brexit move played in this game was triggered in Jun 2016, you will notice on the Q chart how four years after buyers demonstrated a full retrace, before sellers rejected the highs and there we have the winning move. The UK is entering into the house of economic bondage in the ST and MT. Covid has put additional pressure on the pursuit of UK weakness; buyers were forced to flee and risks of a no-deal are rising again. As we discussed together earlier in the year in this Brexit chapter will make it difficult to conjure any reason to hold GBP and as such investors would rather avoid the unnecessary risk. The GBPUSD outlook will be also a function of how much artificial USD devaluation we see from global CB's to help keep EM alive. This makes the preferred vehicles of expressing weaker GBP clear, the connection between GBP vs EUR and JPY will be unprotected. Despite the risk associated with NDB, Downing Street have managed to get this across the line and pushed the UK into the blackhole. This "trap" in wave ii was much praised. The fact that it is a strategic goal to pump and dump the currency was not really considered by anybody. But the goal is and will remain to shake out soft retail hands and not allow any easy entries for the central knee-jerk reactions, while in the long run the crumbling continues. Risks to the thesis come from: => UK softening Brexit tone and looking for possible extensions => China-Australia trade protectionism In our case, short-term and medium-term / daily and weekly charts will come over the weekend as we dig deeper into the set-up. Hope I am wrong but looks like the UK is at the start of a difficult and costly journey. A more natural continuation is expected.
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | Gilt Yields Breaking the GridlockThe best move, since the breakout of the consolidation after an early basing development is to work the heat of the bid. It is much more about the political configuration than and how to work against the economic pain coming from Brexit. As well as moves in Pound and UK Equities becoming clear, Rishi Sunak now playing the tax cuts, which combined with the overdraft extensions and BOE front loaded cuts allows us to completely paralyse sterling buyers in the majority. The latest squeeze is a false liberation!! It will only manage to create enough energy for further weakness !! The isolated Pound will fall and go on to occupy the lows once more, we can open a new cable chart for those wanting to trade the flows live. By calling to their aid the tax cuts, Yields will be forced to spike into the highs and force our opponent onto the back-foot. If price escapes the highs in a freeing momentum break, we can see a surplus of tempo once inflation hits shore. This demonstrates how deadly the paralysing of Downing Street was from Cameron.
TVC:GB10YLong
by ridethepig
Looking to play another support rejection GBPAUDFundamental case: Overvalued AUD against Australian equities. BJ's lockdown extension caused short term selling and I predict GBP will continue up. Sentiment/PA: Key level for this pair; just as we're seeing on many other pairs, there's an order block (in yellow) controlling the next wave of direction - this level is holding the selling since 1.9500. Still a seller's market and a big challenge for a buy case. Technicals: Market is rejecting 1.9000, with a small double bottom. Market is neutral at best until price is above demand. Entry criteria: A rejection of support. Make sure to follow my ideas. Follow me on twitter @thecolour_red and instagram @madebyforex. - Happy trading.
Long
by madebyforex
1
BOEING - Fundamental vs Technical Analysis -Stand AsideNYSE:BA LSE:BOE Based on Technical Analysis seems that the Market should keep going down to level 120 USD (OPTION A) Stochastic it can keep moving in oversold before turning up, confirming that it can go down. Fundamental analysis, overall info on airspace business are negative, but the good news of the BONDS might give a boost to the stock. Boeing Bonds on Thursday peaked at more than $70 billion allowing it to borrow as mush as $25 billion Boeing has $39 billion in debt as of the end of March. In conclusion, stand aside from BOEING.
NYSE:BA
by Mauriello
BOEING Stock Analysis - "Stand Aside"Option A - Based on technical approach I would stand aside because I am not convinced about those descending prices and volume at the breaking point, but, I am tented to go long due to the Channel Pattern, volume (increased at the previous opportunity of price to rise) and the Symmetrical pattern that with the channel pattern makes the continuation signal stronger - Go long up to the level 180 Option B - 95 Dollar - Based on Fundamental Info (Reduction of shares and employees)
BLong
by Mauriello
Bilateral chart pattern spotted in Cable (GBPUSD)The momentum is good on the upside so far but I don't wanna provide any signal at this point knowing the fact that this traditional chart pattern which is an ascending triangle pattern falling in the bilateral family tells us that "Be ready I am about to fall or rise soon". The direction is not fixed in such chart pattern and can go either way so but it's a good hint for now as the price is either trying to continue higher or pullback in the coming days. Interest decision is around but I don't think they will drop further lower. do you expect them to make a 0% benchmark rate? No right? If you think so buyers may not have much issues, either way, I don't mean to buy but be alert in a nutshell. A pair to have in the watchlist.
by Anatta0
5
ridethepig | GBP Observances Of The FlowsIn December of 2019 , one of the most successful cable short position was dealt in the UK election business which invited an "official" but "highly confidential" swing that we traded live here with the confirmation of Brexit via Johnson, and then the most extreme demand shock caused a nosedive in cable via Covid-19, which allowed the lows to do damage: The difficulty in positioning on the retrace leg is that clearing 1.15xx had me bursting with curiosity. After some conversations in the right places, the flow is explained... An urgent matter that requires a complete understanding of what happens when a Central Bank capitulates to pressure from health and society and allows the Government to take full control of the monetary supply taps. Rishi Sunak asked for the moon and it's surprising how often it's given. Politicians always make the most out of a crisis , Johnson, Sunak and everyone inbetween have left dealers in complete silence. Of course it starts off as " temporary monetary scaffolding ", although with no one at the BOE to challenge the maintenance costs of this borrowing now that Carney has been replaced (btw which will soar in the coming years) the UK is in incredibly rough shape as we enter into a monetary crisis. A Downing Street / Threadneedle Street combo in attempt to bring out the big guns, although its too little too late. Brexit is coming in a few months, the path to pleasure for protectionism never leads to glory! The amount of intervention is unbelievable, my eyes have popped. Con artists know that the bolder they make the lie, the more convincing it becomes. From a strictly PPP perspective, all those with a background in economics will know that Sterling must devalue further in order to soften the devastating damage which is coming from lack of access to goods in the short-term. Whether you are a Brexiteer, or a remainer, one thing for sure is that access to markets will be hurt in the short-term. It takes no less than 5 more years for the UK to establish the same deals it currently has. A page has been turned on the Johnson health front after positive updates that he has left ICU: For the first time people are seeing Johnson returning as a great emperor. Masses swallowing the story hook, line and sinker!! Just think - if 1.25xx resistance holds and buyers fail to break it will be a textbook blind to psychology retrace! There will be headwinds to this move as the US set out on to conquer artificial USD devaluation. The issue is, if you sell Dollars where else are you going park? In the UK? ...really? You get the point. Wasting valuable time digging for opportunities, then we have a high quality item right here! Just mentally add up the cost of having UK exposure in this environment and then think of the inner zen you can find without having the pursuit of a bargain that's not really a bargain because there is still so much more economic pain to come. On the technical side , we are sitting inside a 1.25 - 1.20 range in the immediate term. After clearing the 1.15 target is has unlocked the door towards the next barrier at 1.10. Those with an eagle eye will be tracking this highs strategically as another rush to USD via further panic on the virus front and shortages and with Brexit still to come a leg from 1.25 => 1.10 is in play over the coming weeks if things go tits up for the UK (very possible!). Thanks as usual for keeping all the support coming with likes and comments, we are sitting at key value levels to start working the sell-side. Jump into the comments with your views, charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
30
ridethepig | GBPUSD Chart Of The WeekOn the UK side, very little to update on the fundamental side. I am tracking the GBPUSD rally closely at these levels into 1.195x/1.20xx resistance as a good area to fade with targets towards the lows in the range at 1.15xx support and 1.05xx. The main issue is coming from the lack of liquidity meaning its difficult to get much size on. For those tracking the previous Brexit flows it has been flawless till the 1.15, the next target below if we break will be 1.05! Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts. Highly recommend tracking this flow as it will open up the leg for the Brexit double impact later in the year.
Short
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | Macro Flow & Restraint(1) The relationship between "macro flows" and "restraint" The former encourages plans from our opponent by enticing them into positions. What does it mean: suffering from the sad case of the last buyer? The concept of static and dynamic weaknesses. When it becomes appropriate to undo our opponents structure? Restraint can be imagined without the traditional presence of barriers in the orderblock; but real total economic restraint, loss of market access (regardless if you are for or against Brexit this is a fact in the short-term) reigns over whole stretches of the economy and gives the currency breathing difficulties. This is an important from the advantage of trapping our opponent. To what extent, you may ask, does an economy suffer from the said disadvantages? It is not simply enough to state that market isolation can be easily captured in the FX board and can be highly unpleasant to defend. This is because the monetary suffering is impossible to be offset by the fiscal side despite Sunak's loose budget. Equally it would be efficient to connect the highs with the opportunity of false hope for our opponent to break higher (e.g ridethepig | UK Elections ). The main cause of the suffering is that in an election advance there is always the formation of hope, a certain tendency to paralysis is made apparent with smart money all over the 1.35xx highs and loading sell positions. With a high of the range now located at 1.35, the formation can develop with macro sellers targeting 1.21, then 1.15 and finally 1.05 in cable via Brexit. But there is no support in the diagram, and thus the attempt to transfer the flow is absent (see brexit at the door ). What we are recognising here is the principle weakness of buyers to take 1.35 which we will dissect as dynamic weakness and make it impossible for buyers to construct the break. Rule: when our opponent possess the opportunity to go overboard, their structure is weakened and becomes worthwhile looking to push them into advancing before a strong rejection. With this in mind, in the UK elections after 1.35 was rejected, sellers must then attempt to provoke buyers into continuation with action - hence the chop fest in January. As long as buyers were allowed to hold onto 1.30xx/1.29xx, meanwhile smart money are loading the whole time while it is as obvious as a limp - when sitting down! The weakness only becomes visible once 1.30xx/1.29xx was broken. As well as static weakness, there is also the concept of playing GBP dynamically around event risk. Unlike the UK elections, the Chancellor reshuffle laid out bare when you "blag" the fiscal side, that is turn the taps on full blast and flood GBP supply side: Here the static weakness of the monetary and fiscal side is a great one: when both sides align GBP sellers gain advantage. Rule: When GBP buyers showed static weakness over the past few months it was time to advance against them and not be afraid of doubling down with momentum. While Covid-19 has taken the spotlight, the Brexit problem only half vanished. One part of the rose may disappear into thin air, but the petals left will suffer all the more. Now consider the position in the following diagram ( GBP Market Commentary 2020-01-14 ). Sellers encouraged with the technical break which would mean that the exploitation of the restraint at the highs may not be all that difficult. Next came EURGBP : And now GBP allowed itself to be tempted into an interesting attack the result of which would only be to open up the board and expose the hopeless position of those expecting a second referendum or soft exit. Reality continues to sink in.... Here the "win" for GBP sellers is coming in a no less imaginative style to the same highs we traded back in 2019 ... GBP sellers are therefore right in their choice and direction, the waiting strategy paid. The flank on elections paid. Ending hopeless expectations of a fairy tale exit paid. However, the "advance" was also possible because of the macro flow constituting weakness in the liquidity ladder. Sellers sacrifice the late buyers, an exchange at 1.35 captured all participation... ...where we can achieve our "restraint" and then look to target the same lows as in 2019. Another rule: Isolated event risk and compact flows should be challenged (= attacked by opposing swing). An opposing swing complex, which has not advanced but rather in development stage, should, on the other hand, first be goaded into action before being challenged, in other words let it exhaust first !!! (a) The only true strength of Macro flows As we have witnessed, a swing with restraint attached to it contains a specific latent weakness, which flags up only when the said swing advances. In our case it was with the break of 1.30xx/1.29xx to the downside. We will call this, as we have mentioned dynamic weakness . When on the contrary, the swing stands still (or is resting), it can be quite strong. After the squeeze towards 1.35xx cleared the board with a lot of effort to force buyers. I mean by this that GBP buyers scarcely have enough positional means to be able to force any decision since Brexit and this is because price dictates as always! On the other hand, this would be easier if we had cleared 1.21x last week. (b) A review of the best known swing structures... The strongest formation for swing trading comes from event risk and macro drivers; retail should hang on to the later as long as possible. After the Brexit referendum in 2016, it has been one-way traffic for GBP. Thus it is a strategic requirement for GBP sellers to force Buyers into traps. He should do this where possible and without the help of monetary policy as BOE was hijacked till the virus. Because after the monetary side bends a knee, a challenge would no longer be possible, nor would there be any chance to occupy the highs. In the diagram, you will notice how many players commit in error to the wrong side with desperation forcing them to get stuck. This goes against our principle rule (mentioned earlier!!), according to which we should first provoke into some action. One of the most beautiful blockading and restraint swings I have ever traded, I hope it has helped...thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Education
by ridethepig
11