GBPAUD LONG BETAnother long on GA.
Was hesitant to post this idea because the chart is messy.
Technicals:
-simply playing off the support
Price action:
-price held support level and going to challenge 1.9450 peg
-if sellers maintain control overall, then 1.91859 is my downward target
Fundamentals/Sentiment - See my last post // ideas are the same
Additional notes:
-GBP news this session can be the deciding factor for 1.9450 control
-GOLD dropping
BOE
Bilateral chart pattern spotted in Cable (GBPUSD)The momentum is good on the upside so far but I don't wanna provide any signal at this point knowing the fact that this traditional chart pattern which is an ascending triangle pattern falling in the bilateral family tells us that "Be ready I am about to fall or rise soon". The direction is not fixed in such chart pattern and can go either way so but it's a good hint for now as the price is either trying to continue higher or pullback in the coming days. Interest decision is around but I don't think they will drop further lower. do you expect them to make a 0% benchmark rate? No right? If you think so buyers may not have much issues, either way, I don't mean to buy but be alert in a nutshell. A pair to have in the watchlist.
ridethepig | GBP Observances Of The FlowsIn December of 2019 , one of the most successful cable short position was dealt in the UK election business which invited an "official" but "highly confidential" swing that we traded live here with the confirmation of Brexit via Johnson, and then the most extreme demand shock caused a nosedive in cable via Covid-19, which allowed the lows to do damage:
The difficulty in positioning on the retrace leg is that clearing 1.15xx had me bursting with curiosity. After some conversations in the right places, the flow is explained...
An urgent matter that requires a complete understanding of what happens when a Central Bank capitulates to pressure from health and society and allows the Government to take full control of the monetary supply taps. Rishi Sunak asked for the moon and it's surprising how often it's given. Politicians always make the most out of a crisis , Johnson, Sunak and everyone inbetween have left dealers in complete silence. Of course it starts off as " temporary monetary scaffolding ", although with no one at the BOE to challenge the maintenance costs of this borrowing now that Carney has been replaced (btw which will soar in the coming years) the UK is in incredibly rough shape as we enter into a monetary crisis. A Downing Street / Threadneedle Street combo in attempt to bring out the big guns, although its too little too late.
Brexit is coming in a few months, the path to pleasure for protectionism never leads to glory! The amount of intervention is unbelievable, my eyes have popped. Con artists know that the bolder they make the lie, the more convincing it becomes. From a strictly PPP perspective, all those with a background in economics will know that Sterling must devalue further in order to soften the devastating damage which is coming from lack of access to goods in the short-term. Whether you are a Brexiteer, or a remainer, one thing for sure is that access to markets will be hurt in the short-term. It takes no less than 5 more years for the UK to establish the same deals it currently has.
A page has been turned on the Johnson health front after positive updates that he has left ICU: For the first time people are seeing Johnson returning as a great emperor. Masses swallowing the story hook, line and sinker!! Just think - if 1.25xx resistance holds and buyers fail to break it will be a textbook blind to psychology retrace!
There will be headwinds to this move as the US set out on to conquer artificial USD devaluation. The issue is, if you sell Dollars where else are you going park? In the UK? ...really? You get the point. Wasting valuable time digging for opportunities, then we have a high quality item right here! Just mentally add up the cost of having UK exposure in this environment and then think of the inner zen you can find without having the pursuit of a bargain that's not really a bargain because there is still so much more economic pain to come.
On the technical side , we are sitting inside a 1.25 - 1.20 range in the immediate term. After clearing the 1.15 target is has unlocked the door towards the next barrier at 1.10. Those with an eagle eye will be tracking this highs strategically as another rush to USD via further panic on the virus front and shortages and with Brexit still to come a leg from 1.25 => 1.10 is in play over the coming weeks if things go tits up for the UK (very possible!).
Thanks as usual for keeping all the support coming with likes and comments, we are sitting at key value levels to start working the sell-side. Jump into the comments with your views, charts and questions!
ridethepig | GBPUSD Chart Of The WeekOn the UK side, very little to update on the fundamental side. I am tracking the GBPUSD rally closely at these levels into 1.195x/1.20xx resistance as a good area to fade with targets towards the lows in the range at 1.15xx support and 1.05xx. The main issue is coming from the lack of liquidity meaning its difficult to get much size on.
For those tracking the previous Brexit flows it has been flawless till the 1.15, the next target below if we break will be 1.05!
Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts. Highly recommend tracking this flow as it will open up the leg for the Brexit double impact later in the year.
ridethepig | Macro Flow & Restraint(1) The relationship between "macro flows" and "restraint"
The former encourages plans from our opponent by enticing them into positions. What does it mean: suffering from the sad case of the last buyer? The concept of static and dynamic weaknesses. When it becomes appropriate to undo our opponents structure?
Restraint can be imagined without the traditional presence of barriers in the orderblock; but real total economic restraint, loss of market access (regardless if you are for or against Brexit this is a fact in the short-term) reigns over whole stretches of the economy and gives the currency breathing difficulties. This is an important from the advantage of trapping our opponent.
To what extent, you may ask, does an economy suffer from the said disadvantages? It is not simply enough to state that market isolation can be easily captured in the FX board and can be highly unpleasant to defend. This is because the monetary suffering is impossible to be offset by the fiscal side despite Sunak's loose budget.
Equally it would be efficient to connect the highs with the opportunity of false hope for our opponent to break higher (e.g ridethepig | UK Elections ). The main cause of the suffering is that in an election advance there is always the formation of hope, a certain tendency to paralysis is made apparent with smart money all over the 1.35xx highs and loading sell positions.
With a high of the range now located at 1.35, the formation can develop with macro sellers targeting 1.21, then 1.15 and finally 1.05 in cable via Brexit. But there is no support in the diagram, and thus the attempt to transfer the flow is absent (see brexit at the door ). What we are recognising here is the principle weakness of buyers to take 1.35 which we will dissect as dynamic weakness and make it impossible for buyers to construct the break.
Rule: when our opponent possess the opportunity to go overboard, their structure is weakened and becomes worthwhile looking to push them into advancing before a strong rejection.
With this in mind, in the UK elections after 1.35 was rejected, sellers must then attempt to provoke buyers into continuation with action - hence the chop fest in January. As long as buyers were allowed to hold onto 1.30xx/1.29xx, meanwhile smart money are loading the whole time while it is as obvious as a limp - when sitting down! The weakness only becomes visible once 1.30xx/1.29xx was broken.
As well as static weakness, there is also the concept of playing GBP dynamically around event risk. Unlike the UK elections, the Chancellor reshuffle laid out bare when you "blag" the fiscal side, that is turn the taps on full blast and flood GBP supply side:
Here the static weakness of the monetary and fiscal side is a great one: when both sides align GBP sellers gain advantage.
Rule: When GBP buyers showed static weakness over the past few months it was time to advance against them and not be afraid of doubling down with momentum. While Covid-19 has taken the spotlight, the Brexit problem only half vanished. One part of the rose may disappear into thin air, but the petals left will suffer all the more.
Now consider the position in the following diagram ( GBP Market Commentary 2020-01-14 ). Sellers encouraged with the technical break which would mean that the exploitation of the restraint at the highs may not be all that difficult.
Next came EURGBP :
And now GBP allowed itself to be tempted into an interesting attack the result of which would only be to open up the board and expose the hopeless position of those expecting a second referendum or soft exit. Reality continues to sink in....
Here the "win" for GBP sellers is coming in a no less imaginative style to the same highs we traded back in 2019 ...
GBP sellers are therefore right in their choice and direction, the waiting strategy paid. The flank on elections paid. Ending hopeless expectations of a fairy tale exit paid. However, the "advance" was also possible because of the macro flow constituting weakness in the liquidity ladder. Sellers sacrifice the late buyers, an exchange at 1.35 captured all participation...
...where we can achieve our "restraint" and then look to target the same lows as in 2019.
Another rule: Isolated event risk and compact flows should be challenged (= attacked by opposing swing). An opposing swing complex, which has not advanced but rather in development stage, should, on the other hand, first be goaded into action before being challenged, in other words let it exhaust first !!!
(a) The only true strength of Macro flows
As we have witnessed, a swing with restraint attached to it contains a specific latent weakness, which flags up only when the said swing advances. In our case it was with the break of 1.30xx/1.29xx to the downside. We will call this, as we have mentioned dynamic weakness . When on the contrary, the swing stands still (or is resting), it can be quite strong. After the squeeze towards 1.35xx cleared the board with a lot of effort to force buyers. I mean by this that GBP buyers scarcely have enough positional means to be able to force any decision since Brexit and this is because price dictates as always! On the other hand, this would be easier if we had cleared 1.21x last week.
(b) A review of the best known swing structures...
The strongest formation for swing trading comes from event risk and macro drivers; retail should hang on to the later as long as possible. After the Brexit referendum in 2016, it has been one-way traffic for GBP. Thus it is a strategic requirement for GBP sellers to force Buyers into traps. He should do this where possible and without the help of monetary policy as BOE was hijacked till the virus. Because after the monetary side bends a knee, a challenge would no longer be possible, nor would there be any chance to occupy the highs. In the diagram, you will notice how many players commit in error to the wrong side with desperation forcing them to get stuck. This goes against our principle rule (mentioned earlier!!), according to which we should first provoke into some action.
One of the most beautiful blockading and restraint swings I have ever traded, I hope it has helped...thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
ridethepig | BOE & FED ComboThis is a quick update to do with pricing in rates, or what's already priced in rate market ... I wont try my best to keep it short and sweet.
I have been receiving many PM's and comments around how do we know when the Fed cuts are fully priced in? For example the -50bps that the market forced earlier in the week...everybody knew they were coming, they just didn't know it would be a surprise before the meeting.
When it comes to the fundamentals and pricing in rate cuts, the macro is slightly different on each side. The reason it's different is because of timing and placement in the economic cycle. On the UK side, when we walk forward, the further out you go in time, the more relevant Brexit becomes. Why? The market has been incrementally pricing as we've gone along... doing it in small pieces because that's how markets like to move.
The market didn't sit at the highs saying well we've got a new fiscal budget coming with tax cuts on the horizon, the taps on full blast and BOE ready to bend the knee, so lets start selling GBP and suddenly GBPUSD was down 300 ticks. Then markets looked at the 1.275x lows and did another forward walk, this time saying there is no point in going lower because of Fed cuts via coronavirus short-circuit, these are not fully priced so lets take another test of the 1.300x highs as there is more money to be made in the slow train !!!
The macro traders know this, a BOE intervention is only a matter of when and if they can wait till the meeting. We have the budget next week and a very aggressive Fiscal policy may offset the need to act inbetween although, another they will not appreciate another hammer in UK Equities so eyes there to begin the week.
Mostly when talking about whats being priced in, it's on the incremental level. So you will remember the GBP devaluation we are trading via Brexit:
This is the future, what the market will try and do is price it all in small increments. The biggest moves, the ones with real volatility will come only sessions before the actual fact of Brexit annihilation. The market is not interested in these small 50 ticks or 75 tick retracement, the further out you go the more relevant the macro becomes. You see here with the PM May resignation:
Markets priced in a little before, but you usually don't know enough details until shortly before the fact. Then before the announcement, maybe price moved 100 ticks... then markets expect it to be hawkish ... if that's the case with Boris then it gets priced and if they do not deliver then it will be priced back out.
For the technical 🗺
Steel Support 1.241x <=> Strong Support 1.258x <=> Soft Support 1.275x <=> S/R Flip 1.293x <=> Strong Resistance 1.310x <=> Steel Resistance 1.321x
It's macro ... the titanic takes a long time to turn ... Good luck all those in GBP and UK assets, here tracking a pullback in GBPUSD via BOE intervention and -50bps front loaded cut. I don't think they will be able to wait till the meeting!
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
EURGBP Possible ContinuationMay have potential movement upward still even if we technically see it high fundamental euro may bang above a bit higher the way how EURUSD proved it every high no sell! I had some sentiment analysis though and I feel it has more potential upward prolly around r2 or even r3 let's see depending on the impact of BOE rate decision yet to come but pricing will occur before the event.
ridethepig | Continue To Sell GBP On Rallies Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for year end.
The flows are all in-line so far with the long-term macro picture. It is playing out perfectly and looking to sell rallies with risks skewed towards the downside makes sense to me.
Medium term targets are located below at 1.21 and 1.15 - these are in play for 1H 2020 if things get very bad with USD strengthening via panic around virus impact and risks while GBP softens as UK lose PPP in the immediate term.
Well done those already selling Sterling, and good luck anyone look to load more on rallies. I am happy to sit short and work the sell-side in Cable. The ideas are no less imaginative than those of last year which turned out to be a 1,000 tick trade:
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming !
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.02.13A weak session for EURGBP, soft hands continued to bring better sellers in from leveraged accounts and yet the important 0.8300x support still held. I am once again in BTFD mode as pound remains more vulnerable in the entire process as a result of financial services replacement.
Risk markets will put more pressure on GBP in general over the coming sessions. Here using dips to buy into with an end of year target at 0.95xx. BOE are already showing signs of distress with the cross below 0.853 which is key via rate differentials. A very technical flow as is usually the case with these cabinet reshuffles we get a retrace in the swing.
Adding this to the playbook at the close today with initial targets located at 0.8400, followed by 0.8425 and 0.8450. Invalidation comes into play with a daily close underneath 0.830x.
Good luck all those on the bid, same legs are playable in GBPUSD and GBPJPY in particular too. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
ridethepig | Fading The Highs In GBP!With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below:
Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do whatever Johnson wants. Those behind the curtain know it was another flawless beheading from Cummings, meanwhile a ruthless Downing Street only waiting for Carney exit on 16th March to have full control with Bailey too.
Eyes on NY selling the open, we could get a very fast swing down is USD catches a strong bid via coronavirus risk. US inflation overshooting will be enough to carry this lower.
Thanks guys for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your charts below!
GBPCHF what if reports are better then forecast/previous...??!!Sterling could be in for additional volatility as the U.K. jobs figures are due and might set the tone for BOE policy expectations. If the actual figures beat expectations, however, it could spark a strong bounce for pound pairs as this would likely dampen BOE rate cut hopes. The pair is floating around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with an area of interest, weekly pivot level, and the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. In my opinion, we may not see a further deep or retracement around 50-61.80% Fibonacci if we have a surprise better than the expected report where consensus is better then what it is hoped by the economist. The faster-moving MA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that support is more likely to hold than to break at the moment and also, stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, so buyers might take over soon but as we said everything depends on the upcoming outlook from the UK and global risk sentiment. The average daily volatility of GBP/CHF is around 82 pips a day so decide wisely entries and exit levels after knowing the reports. Stay careful friends!
London Watchlist: Expecting a strong GBPSo... the UK data coming out today is pretty important, if bad it increases the chance of a rate cut by the BOE, but if positive it kinda kills it! So there should be pretty big movement on the GBP if the print is better than expected or worse thane expected!
The video pretty much explains our thinking here and our trading tactic, we are long on GBPUSD and we are targetting the 120% mark seen on the chart on the right, a solid 100+ pip move!
Right now the GBP is tanking, but thats just due to expectations of the analysts, who are rarely right and they don't even trade for a living, the charts say GBP is long and we will TRADE WHAT WE SEE !
If you like the video give us a follow!
Live Positioning in GBPJPY !!!A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit.
On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff in global equities and with GBPJPY at the top in the range we are sitting at good value levels to recycle shorts.
For the map:
Highs 143.25 <=> Mid 142.25 <=> Lows 141.25
Expecting a red asian session with more risk clearing to be complete, I am taken back by how complacent that many markets have been able to try looking through the outbreak. We have a few reasons to remain on high alerts, uncertainty around the 2s5s:
Notice how the inversions are ahead of recessions, while the press reports all is well there are downside risks building and playable across many markets. If we see an improvement in sentiment around the coronavirus I will lighten up. I will not be stubborn and hold on. Keep it simple and trade the driver!
Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!!
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.02.11A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable.
On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling.
On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to non-agricultural employment. The FED remains dovish and in cutting mode, in normal circumstances cuts would be difficult to justify but with Trump in full control market expectations do not favour USD walking forward.
On the technicals the map is crystal clear until we enter into the Brexit impact leg:
Strong Support 1.276x <=> Soft Support 1.290x <=> Mid Point 1.328x <=> Soft Resistance 1.38xx <=> Strong Resistance 1.43xx
On the positioning side, Pound longs were mostly built by speculators in the back-end of 2019 and these began to unwind as we headed into the official finish line in Jan 2020. This is leaving the flows exposed to negative headlines although you can argue the case for further upside as long as strong economic prints continue. The Pound is relatively cheap in this environment, I suspect the main impact leg from Brexit will not kick-in till October 2020 so we have plenty of time to continue working both side in the next 6 months.
Expecting a mild recovery to come in the months ahead which will aid in offshore ownership of UK assets, the desire is there to continue the recovery and as long as this remains the case the breakdown will be difficult. Look to add GBP exposure on dips while we are at the bottom of the short-term and medium term range. A breakdown will be a game changer and will imply BOE are moving in August.
A round of G10 FX charts and strategy updates coming over the sessions today... Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling guys!
GBPUSD: Market Outlook, Plan and Probabilities Future Price MoveU.K.’s first GDP reading, which is expected at 0.0% after a 0.4% reading in Q3 2019.
If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today.
If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts.
Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
GBP/USD forecast /post BOE/BREXITGU is technically cooking next move after a bit longer period of consolidation after 2 upward legs which created this new bullish trend from weekly support. Dollar paired some losses since October while GBP used that opportunity with combination from positive tones for Brexit. This week we will also get BOE rate decision which will definitely increase volatility on the markets due to almost even chances of cut-hold decision chances. Market is more sensitive and cautious since 'Coronavirus' fears which sent market into more risk-off causing dollar and safe havens to appreciate vs risk currencies. Also post brexit trade talks will be interesting to watch and it is still difficult to fundamentally forecast longer term Sterling direction.
However, in such situation technicals and banks positioning is worth to watch. We are still bullish on pound and support looks good so far, not breaking down to create lower lows! For good r/r ratio I will take my chances going long on bullish overview. One of the rare times I disagree with sentiment with small stake, but good plan! If drop happens, I will look to re-enter lower.
GBPAUD waiting for the break of the rangePrice again testing the upper trend line after a false break from election period. Upcoming week is key and all attention on UK Brexit conclusion. Boris finally pushed his Brexit plan and on Friday 31st UK is leaving the EU.
Also on Thursday we have BoE, Carney's last meeting, with various call from board members to potentially cut the rates to boost the economy. 2019 had the slowest growth since 2012 and some members already expressed dovish outlook on the rate decision.
So lots of fundamentals this week for GBP.
Technical range in the comments shows that a breakout trade is likely here.
Good Luck!
GBPUSD looking for shorts if mkt stays below 1,3150 by EU openHi Traders,
the pound reached interesting levels from an intrtaday perspective, bulls were rejected here during New York sessions.
A question of patience, if opening in Europe tomorrow at 1.3150 then possible shorts on any kind of failure , stop above 1.3178, target 1.29
Risk factors: FOMC and BOE next week
Good luck
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access.
Compare the following two diagrams:
Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier.
A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown?
In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side.
Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15).
To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish.
On the EURGBP side:
Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.