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GBPUSD: Intraday trend analysisGBPUSD appears to have an 8h timeframe trend here. There's risk of this becoming a 'Brexit flash crash #2' situation, considering how the intraday trend time and price target imply a potential turning point when the news come out. My reccomendation is, either to stand aside. I think the market will frustrate the most people, and not start a big trend, neither up or down, simply, staying in a larger triangle/sideways pattern consolidation. If the market is range bound, fading the range extremes will prove to be profitable. I have my doubts about the dollar, since it appears to have a major topping pattern, but I reccommend caution here, perhaps it's best to trade after the news effects are known, so it might be feasible to trade technical short term trends, both up and down in FX, for a good while. If this indeed breaks up, then we could see a trend gain traction in the long term, which would be beneficial for emerging markets, and also give us more interesting trading opportunities. Let's wait and see. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
6
SPX: Breakdown of the downtrend, and longer term signalsSPX is getting extremely interesting, now that VIX has spiked for more than 5 points on the current market decline. I'm monitoring the decline to catch the exact bottom in the market, which I think can end up matching the bottom in oil, and the energy sector, and a great chance to add to my EEM longs too, and acquire more latin american stocks. I updated my time at mode analysis for SPX in the yearly timeframe, and there's a target at 2987usd, so, we might end up seeing that after the correction bottoms. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails. In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: www.bloomberg.com The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the $GBPUSD pair. Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have: 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally. 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event. A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades. Good luck! Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
27
GBPUSD: Long term decline analysisThis is the long term outlook for GBPUSD, we can see that the signal here has been working well, and although I had initially identified it as a quarterly signal, it belongs to a higher timeframe to correctly portray the activity in it according to the 'Time at mode' methodology. For now, we'd have to wait for this year to end to judge the future shorter term targets to validate the bearish momentum, but we can already keep the target in mind, to flip long after covering any short we have once hit, or if the time expires, or, to identify long term resistance levels to short against on rallies. The daily chart tells us to wait, and so does the weekly for now, so, I'll keep an eye on it to short rallies, or the confirmation of a lower timeframe 'Time at mode' downtrend signal like the one in related ideas. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPUSD: Time at mode uptrend might give us a great short soonGBPUSD has an interesting chart here, with very clear resistance levels and a stop loss level for short trades. We will be looking to short the top of the current uptrend, to rejoin the long term decline in the Pound. I think the uptrend is doomed from the get go, being a pullback in a downtrend, so, I will look to fade the rally when safe. The chart shows a potential signal that could take price to the vicinity of 1.2830, but, there is a massive supply level at 1.2767 that could make the uptrend fail. Look for shorts above 1.2767 ideally, you can take a long term position and spread the selling over multiple days, using the stop on chart. If the analysis is correct, we'll get more confirmation for a precise technical short entry soon, for now, wait for updates here, and watch it. Going long isn't reccomended, although this will probably rally while EURUSD retraces. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
GBPJPY: Speculative long positionWe have an interesting setup here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Risk is big in the Pound pairs, so only risk 0.5% on the long here. The spread with USDJPY might close soon, so you might have sizeable upside in this pair. Invalidation is a move back under last week's open for this trade idea. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: I'm still unsure of the GBPUSD pair, so I'm currently flat, although I'd reccomend caution trading it. Size trades small so you have reasonable risk. Look at the ATR indicator for clues.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Brave traders, here you have a short ideaWe have an interesting setup in GBPUSD. The loss of momentum in the rally leads to a viable short setup, either at market open, risking a rally to 1.2624, or shorting on a new daily low, risking a new daily high. I expect the next leg to go down, but I'm not sure if we can trend down right away. It's more likely going to chop and gyrate between key levels until the end of the year. We can accumulate short positions on each rally, and with some luck, we might even be able to keep them with break even stops if things go really well. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
BOE monetary policy and rate decision - Saving the Pound? On Thursday BOE will publish its rate decision and monetary policy summary. Following latest Carney's speech, people now know that BOE is starting to monitor the currency's weakness following Brexit - They will pay attention to what BOE will have to say about it in the coming meeting. Technically 1.21 is the current support zone. The price is holding above it and created couple of Intraday reversal signals once it touched it... Still the price is below the Fast MA line and hasn't created any higher high or higher low till now. With FOMC before BOE meeting we can see GBPUSD pressing down towards 1.21 again and perhaps even 1.2. Will it be a buying opportunity towards the BOE meeting? Will be interesting to monitor - We will get a potential confirmation signal if GBPUSD will climb above the MA line for the first time since its Flash Crash. Read more trading ideas in my newsletters (link in signature)
Long
by themarketzone
GBPUSD: Fighting my biasI don't want to long the dollar right now, and many of my trades are centered around strength of commodities, oil, equities, so a dollar long, pretty much would rain on my parade. Now, I also don't want to be exposed to strongly correlated trades only, and not diversify, and I definitely don't want to trade with blinders on, and avoid taking good trades due to my personal biases, whatever they might be. So, I play Devil's advocate for a bit here, and try to decipher the GBPUSD chart. I'm looking at the GBPUSD and inverted GBPUSD weekly chart here. It appears like relative strength has been bad for the Pound and recent news about the Brexit 'implementation' have hurt Pound bulls considerably, making the bullish technical setups we had fail. I see we have a weekly time at mode signal in play, a weekly range expansion bar, and a huge downside (or upside target in the case of the inverted Pound chart). I'm sure this is a stupid trade, so probably, it a good one to take. What are your thoughts? Leave your comments behind. Good luck if you follow my idea. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
EURGBP - ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI & BOE SHAFIK SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSECB Draghi: Draghi: Our Measures Are Working, Creating Jobs Draghi: Our Measures Ensure Recovery that Will Ultimately Benefit German Savers, Pensioners Draghi: We Take German Concerns Seriously Draghi: Economic Policies are Essential to Complement our Monetary Policy Draghi: Price Stability Doesn't Mean Inflation of 0% Draghi: We Need to Act When Inflation Is Close to 0% Draghi: Our Measures Have Delivered Draghi: Very Low Rates Affect People's Finances, Welfare Draghi: Low Rates Reflect Weak Long-Term Growth Draghi: Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rates Have Been Low Many Times in Germany Before Euro -0.01% Draghi: German Exports Benefit from Euro -0.01% Area Economic Recovery Draghi: German Unemployment Is At Its Lowest Since Reunification Draghi: Low Financing Costs Are Good News for Germany's Finance Ministry Draghi: ECB Policy Isn't Main Factor For Low Profitability of Banks Draghi: German Banks' Cost-to-Income Ratios Are Relatively High Draghi: Low Rates For a Long Period Risk Overvaluation in Asset Markets Draghi: Not Seeing Overheating in Eurozone, German Economy As a Whole Draghi: For Rates to Rise, We Need More Investment, Economic Reforms Draghi: Policymakers Need to Seize Opportunity to Deliver Reforms Draghi: Low Rates Today Are Necessary for Return to Higher Rates in Future Draghi: Need to Allow ECB Policy Measures to Develop Full Impact ECB Draghi: Thankful for Respect of ECB Independence From German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: The ECB Is Sensitive to Risks, People's Concerns About Low Rates ECB Draghi: 'Very Satisfactory Exchange' With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: I Cherish Occasion for Debate With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: I Never Argued for Irresponsible Fiscal Expansion Draghi: Major Central Banks Have All Embarked on Large-Scale Sovereign Bond Purchase Programs BOE Shafik: BOE Shafik: No Doubt UK Experiencing "Sizeable Economic Shock" BOE Shafik: Likely That Further Monetary Stimulus Will Be Needed BOE Shafik: Reduction In Openness Implies Slower Growth BOE Shafik: Brexit Uncertainty Is Weighing On Business Investment
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
EURGBP - ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI & BOE SHAFIK SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSECB Draghi: Draghi: Our Measures Are Working, Creating Jobs Draghi: Our Measures Ensure Recovery that Will Ultimately Benefit German Savers, Pensioners Draghi: We Take German Concerns Seriously Draghi: Economic Policies are Essential to Complement our Monetary Policy Draghi: Price Stability Doesn't Mean Inflation of 0% Draghi: We Need to Act When Inflation Is Close to 0% Draghi: Our Measures Have Delivered Draghi: Very Low Rates Affect People's Finances, Welfare Draghi: Low Rates Reflect Weak Long-Term Growth Draghi: Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rates Have Been Low Many Times in Germany Before Euro Draghi: German Exports Benefit from Euro Area Economic Recovery Draghi: German Unemployment Is At Its Lowest Since Reunification Draghi: Low Financing Costs Are Good News for Germany's Finance Ministry Draghi: ECB Policy Isn't Main Factor For Low Profitability of Banks Draghi: German Banks' Cost-to-Income Ratios Are Relatively High Draghi: Low Rates For a Long Period Risk Overvaluation in Asset Markets Draghi: Not Seeing Overheating in Eurozone, German Economy As a Whole Draghi: For Rates to Rise, We Need More Investment, Economic Reforms Draghi: Policymakers Need to Seize Opportunity to Deliver Reforms Draghi: Low Rates Today Are Necessary for Return to Higher Rates in Future Draghi: Need to Allow ECB Policy Measures to Develop Full Impact ECB Draghi: Thankful for Respect of ECB Independence From German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: The ECB Is Sensitive to Risks, People's Concerns About Low Rates ECB Draghi: 'Very Satisfactory Exchange' With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: I Cherish Occasion for Debate With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: I Never Argued for Irresponsible Fiscal Expansion Draghi: Major Central Banks Have All Embarked on Large-Scale Sovereign Bond Purchase Programs BOE Shafik: BOE Shafik: No Doubt UK Experiencing "Sizeable Economic Shock" BOE Shafik: Likely That Further Monetary Stimulus Will Be Needed BOE Shafik: Reduction In Openness Implies Slower Growth BOE Shafik: Brexit Uncertainty Is Weighing On Business Investment
by QuantumLogicTrading
ECB DRAGHI & BOE FORBES SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSDECB DRAGHI: -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERBANKING A FACTOR IN LOW LEVEL OF BANK PROFITABILITY -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERCAPACITY MEANS SECTOR IS NOT EFFICIENT -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS LIFE INSURERS FACE WEAK PROFITABILITY UNLESS THEY REFORM BUSINESS MODELS -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS MARGIN AND HAIRCUT REQUIREMENTS COULD IMPROVE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOE'€™S FORBES: NOT YET CONVINCED THAT ADDITIONAL MONETARY EASING WILL BE NECESSARY -Did not support asset purchases as felt costs were greater than benefits -Now QE announced, will not be voting against it each month, barring substantial economic change -Behaviour of consumers and businesses, and evolution of prices is critically important in determining the appropriate action -Initial effect on the economy of the referendum has been less stormy than many expected -Some evidence that companies are delaying major investments; commercial property and housing market are weaker -Consumer spending is strong and net exports are poised to pick up -Aggregate impact of all of these forces appears to be a modest slowing in the economy to date
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
ECB DRAGHI & BOE FORBES SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSDECB DRAGHI: -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERBANKING A FACTOR IN LOW LEVEL OF BANK PROFITABILITY -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERCAPACITY MEANS SECTOR IS NOT EFFICIENT -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS LIFE INSURERS FACE WEAK PROFITABILITY UNLESS THEY REFORM BUSINESS MODELS -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS MARGIN AND HAIRCUT REQUIREMENTS COULD IMPROVE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOE'€™S FORBES: NOT YET CONVINCED THAT ADDITIONAL MONETARY EASING WILL BE NECESSARY -Did not support asset purchases as felt costs were greater than benefits -Now QE announced, will not be voting against it each month, barring substantial economic change -Behaviour of consumers and businesses, and evolution of prices is critically important in determining the appropriate action -Initial effect on the economy of the referendum has been less stormy than many expected -Some evidence that companies are delaying major investments; commercial property and housing market are weaker -Consumer spending is strong and net exports are poised to pick up -Aggregate impact of all of these forces appears to be a modest slowing in the economy to date
by QuantumLogicTrading
ECB ECONOMIC BULLETIN & BOE FCP MEETING - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSD*ECB ECONOMIC BULLETIN: -Economic Recovery In The Euro Area Is Continuing -Moderate Global Growth Continued In The First Half Of 2016 -Governing Council Expects The Economic Recovery To Proceed At A Moderate But Steady Pace -Annual Real GDP Expected To Increase By 1.7% In 2016, By 1.6% In 2017 And By 1.6% In 2018 -Annual HICP Inflation Seen At 0.2% In 2016, 1.2% In 2017 And 1.6% In 2018 -Between Early June And Early September Euro Area And Global Financial Markets Remained Relatively Calm, Apart From The Immediate Period Around The UK Referendum BOE FCP MEETING: -BOE: FPC Says UK Faces Period of Uncertainty, Adjustment -BOE: FPC Says UK Faces Period of Uncertainty, Adjustment -BOE: Risks to Stability Include Commercial Real Estate, Current Account -BOE: Financial Policy Committee Says Outlook for Financial Stability "Challenging" -BOE: FPC Also Concerned Some Households May Struggle To Service Debts if Econ Weakens -BOE: FPC Says Risks to Stability from Global Economy Elevated -BOE: FPC Sees Prices of Some Fixed Income Assets Elevated -BOE: FPC Says Term Funding Scheme Has Helped Maintain Bank Interest Margins -BOE: FPC Says No Risk to Stability from Help To Buy Scheme -BOE FPC: UK FACES CHALLENGING PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY AND ADJUSTMENT AFTER BREXIT -BOE - RISKS TO UK COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ARE CRYSTALLISING, TRANSACTIONS LOWEST SINCE 2009 -BOE FPC SAYS PLANNED CLOSURE OF 'HELP TO BUY' MORTGAGE GUARANTEE SCHEME AT END OF 2016 UNLIKELY TO AFFECT LENDING -BOE - UK FINANCIAL REGULATION WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST AS ROBUST AS CURRENTLY PLANNED, REGARDLESS OF FUTURE RELATIONS WITH EU
by QuantumLogicTrading
ECB ECONOMIC BULLETIN & BOE FCP MEETING - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSDECB ECONOMIC BULLETIN: -Economic Recovery In The Euro Area Is Continuing -Moderate Global Growth Continued In The First Half Of 2016 -Governing Council Expects The Economic Recovery To Proceed At A Moderate But Steady Pace -Annual Real GDP Expected To Increase By 1.7% In 2016, By 1.6% In 2017 And By 1.6% In 2018 -Annual HICP Inflation Seen At 0.2% In 2016, 1.2% In 2017 And 1.6% In 2018 -Between Early June And Early September Euro Area And Global Financial Markets Remained Relatively Calm, Apart From The Immediate Period Around The UK Referendum BOE FCP MEETING: -BOE: FPC Says UK Faces Period of Uncertainty, Adjustment -BOE: FPC Says UK Faces Period of Uncertainty, Adjustment -BOE: Risks to Stability Include Commercial Real Estate, Current Account -BOE: Financial Policy Committee Says Outlook for Financial Stability "Challenging" -BOE: FPC Also Concerned Some Households May Struggle To Service Debts if Econ Weakens -BOE: FPC Says Risks to Stability from Global Economy Elevated -BOE: FPC Sees Prices of Some Fixed Income Assets Elevated -BOE: FPC Says Term Funding Scheme Has Helped Maintain Bank Interest Margins -BOE: FPC Says No Risk to Stability from Help To Buy Scheme -BOE FPC: UK FACES CHALLENGING PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY AND ADJUSTMENT AFTER BREXIT -BOE - RISKS TO UK COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ARE CRYSTALLISING, TRANSACTIONS LOWEST SINCE 2009 -BOE FPC SAYS PLANNED CLOSURE OF 'HELP TO BUY' MORTGAGE GUARANTEE SCHEME AT END OF 2016 UNLIKELY TO AFFECT LENDING -BOE - UK FINANCIAL REGULATION WILL NEED TO BE AT LEAST AS ROBUST AS CURRENTLY PLANNED, REGARDLESS OF FUTURE RELATIONS WITH EU
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
RBNZ MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT - GBPNZD TACTICAL LONG (NZDUSD)*RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and inflation prints putting it on the dovish side. Positioning wise, I am tactically long GBPNZD and EURNZD for another day or two (depending on closes - see attached).. this leaning dovish statement may ease these positions into the money but it isnt the key driver I was looking for but ill take any kiwi weakness we can get here. One onus on short kiwi is the tail off in US STIR which may see some more AUDNZD selling (kiwi buying) as USD rates become less attractive - although we have infact seen December fed funds trade flat on the day (though November did soften from 20 to 14%) so this yield seeking cross selling may be limited and under some sort of control for now which should enable these tactical kiwi shorts some running room. RBNZ: MONETARY POLICY TO REMAIN ACCOMODATIVE - A Decline In THE NZ$ Is Needed - Further Easing Will Be Required - Weak Global Growth And Low Rates Putting Upward Pressure On NZ$ - High NZ$ Makes It Difficult To Reach Inflation Target - Further Declines In Inflation Expectations Still A Risk - Domestic Growth Supported By Strong Migration, Tourism, Construction - Strong Immigration Is Limiting Wages Pressure - Watching Data Closely - Volatility In Global Markets Has Increased - House Price Inflation Remains Excessive, Macropru Having Moderating Influence - Outlook For Global Growth, Commodity Prices Remains Uncertain - Annual CPI Inflation Expected To Weaken In Sept Quarter Full statement is here - www.rbnz.govt.nz WESTPAC ON THE RBNZ: -This morning the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.00%, as was widely expected. -Much of the language from the August Monetary Policy Statement was retained in today's release, most likely deliberately so. The last paragraph repeated that "further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range" (our emphasis - "will" is about as strong as the RBNZ's language gets). -The statement acknowledged the economic developments since August, without altering its bottom-line assessment on inflation. Dairy prices have risen strongly, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty around the full season outcome; the NZ dollar has risen more than expected; strong GDP growth was broadly in line with expectations; and there are early signs that the latest round of lending restrictions is having a dampening effect on the housing market. -The RBNZ again noted that annual inflation is expected to rise from the end of this year, as some temporary factors drop out. Nevertheless, the RBNZ still faces an uncomfortably slow return to the inflation target, with the risk that persistently low inflation leads to a further decline in wage and price expectations. -In August the RBNZ was fairly explicit that its interest rate projections split the difference between one and two more OCR cuts in coming months, with the first cut most likely to be at the November MPS. -We suspect that the RBNZ is still committed to at least the first of those rate cuts. Any change in the language of today's statement could have given the false impression that the RBNZ was wavering on further easing.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading