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GBP/USD edges higher, US PPI loomsThe British pound has posted slight gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2257, up 0.32%. After a rather uneventful week for the US dollar, next week could be marked by plenty of action, with a host of key releases on both sides of the pond. The BoE and Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 50 bp hikes, and we'll get a look at the latest inflation data from both the UK and the US. Like the Federal Reserve, the BoE has also circled inflation as public enemy number one, but Governor Bailey doesn't have the luxury of a strong economy to work with. With GDP in negative territory and inflation at a staggering 11.1%, the economy may already be experiencing stagflation, but Bailey can ill afford to allow inflation expectations to become more entrenched. Winter is likely to be a season of discontent, with railroad and other public workers threatening to go on strike, as the cost-of-living crisis has hit households hard. The Federal Reserve will be keeping a close eye on the US inflation report, which will be released just one day before the Fed's policy meeting. Inflation has eased over the past several months, but the Fed has been very cautious and is still reluctant to declare that inflation has peaked. The Fed has not looked kindly on market exuberance triggered by soft inflation reports, and paraded a stream of Fed members to remind investors that inflation remains unacceptably high and the fight to curb inflation remains far from over. The markets will get a look at US inflation data later today, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). The index is expected to drop to 7.4%, down from 8.0%. A decline in PPI would reinforce expectations that we'll see a drop in CPI as well next week. 1.2169 and 1.2027 are the next support levels GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2169. Below, there is support at 1.2027
by OANDA
1
GBPAUDHello Traders. This is my view on GBPAUD. At first, the price has bounce up from the weekly support level, but now is touching the Weekly Resistance. Also, the Weekly Trend remains bearish from 2001, while any intraday 4H,1H Daily, whatever, is considered as a correction, personally speaking. That will be my entry with possible TP levels. The fundamentas in 8 days for GBP will push the price perhaps higher for GBP. So, we have to keep a look for AUD high impact news. I will be bullish in long term for this pair only if it breaks the upper supply zone. Please provide your comments! Goodluck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
EURGBP BearishAbsent the lack of key fundamental surprises I am slowly leaning to a bearish stance on this pair. The economic situations between the two is very similar. Both are also experiencing a much milder winter than was previously expected which seems to be helping both Germany and the U.K. economically. In my opinion, the BoE is being more dovish than the ECB regarding inflation expectations and terminal interest rate levels. Perhaps in a bid to achieve price stability. Divergence between the recent upward movement and the indicators shown suggests this current bullish formation is weak and may soon be exhausted. I believe the pair will likely see a move to the downside. If the current ascending channel (white) fails, I’ll be expecting to see 0.8700, 0.8648 and 0.8600. POI for short : 0.8860 - 0.8900
Short
by jamesfrench73
2
Pound takes a dive, retail sales nextThe British pound is sharply lower on Thursday as the US dollar has rebounded against the major currencies. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1787, down 1.07%. We continue to see sharp swings from the pound in November. Jeremy Hunt's Autumn Statement was much more in keeping with the difficult economic times than the ill-fated mini-budget back in September, which set off a financial crisis and emergency intervention from the Bank of England. The Finance Minister's budget outlined major spending cuts and tax hikes and Hunt stated that the government and the BoE were working in "lockstep".  The fiscal austerity in the new budget is a step in the right direction, but the pound nevertheless has taken a tumble today. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast indicated that the UK is currently in a recession, which will see unemployment jump from 3.5% to 4.9%. The BoE's outlook is even worse, with unemployment forecast to hit 6.5% and negative growth expected in the second half of this year, throughout 2023 and into the first half of 2024. GDP declined by 0.2% in the third quarter, and the headwinds look formidable for the UK economy and the British pound. The investor euphoria which sent the stock markets rallying after the soft inflation report has taken a pause, and the US dollar has rebounded. Fed policy members sought to dispel any thoughts of a Fed pivot, reminding the markets that the Fed was planning to raise rates higher than they had anticipated. The hawkish Fed speak may or may not have convinced investors to settle down, but a strong US retail sales report clearly did the job. The headline and core releases both posted strong gains of 1.3%, dampening sentiment that the Fed was turning dovish. US consumers continue to spend despite inflation and rising rates, an indication that the Fed can continue to raise rates and probably avoid a deep recession. Interest rates are expected to peak at 5% or slightly higher, which means that the Fed is highly likely to continue tightening into next year. . There is resistance at 1.1961 and 1.2030 GBP/USD has broken below support at 1.1896 and 1.1786. Below, there is support at 1.1660
by OANDA
UK 11% inflation and supply chain shock is starting to fadeUK inflation goes to 11% a 41-year high, goods prices continue to increase. BOE says supply chain shock is starting to fade, however, with this inflation rate, the next couple hours the EURGBP will certainly go long. Chart: We have a support that was not tested after the dates of UK. But we can see the RSI in a oversold zone and after changing the direction the MACD is going up. The MA of BB has already been tested with some candles shadows, but none of them crossed it.
Long
by AFCapital21
2
Pound rises even as inflation tops 11%The British pound has moved higher on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1934, up 0.56%. The pound roared on Tuesday, gaining close to 1% and punching past the 1.20 line for the first time in three months. It has been a busy time for sterling, which has been marked by sharp swings that would make an exotic currency blush. The pound's volatility has been especially pronounced in the month of November. The US dollar has hit a rocky patch and the pound has taken full advantage, climbing 3.5% this month. UK inflation continues to rise and hit a staggering 11.1% in October, a 41-year high. The upward trend continued despite the government introducing an energy price guarantee. Inflation jumped from 10.1% in September and ahead of the consensus of 10.7%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 6.5%, but was higher than the forecast of 6.4%. The Bank of England hasn't been able to stem rising inflation despite tightening policy but will be hoping that its jumbo 0.75% hike earlier in November will take a bite out of the next inflation report. The UK economy is facing a double-whammy of high inflation and a recession, and all eyes will be on Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, who will announce the government budget on Thursday. Hunt will aim to restore the government's credibility and stability, after the recent political soap opera which resulted in three different prime ministers in a matter of months and significant financial instability. The UK employment report on Tuesday was lukewarm, with unemployment ticking higher to 3.5%, up from 3.4%. The Bank of England will be concerned about the increase in wage growth, which will create even more inflation. Wages excluding bonuses rose to 5.7%, up from 5.5% and ahead of the consensus of 5.6%. The BoE will be under pressure to continue hiking aggressively, even though this will hurt the struggling UK economy. GBP/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.1878. The next resistance is 1.2030 1.1767 and 1.1660  are providing support
by OANDA
1
Pound soars despite weak job dataThe British pound has reversed directions on Tuesday and posted sharp gains. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1902, up 1.22%. The pound has punched above 1.19 for the first time since August 19th. The UK employment report was soft, with unemployment ticking higher to 3.5%, up from 3.4%. Unemployment rose by 3.3 thousand, down from 3.9 thousand but well off the consensus of -12.6 thousand. The BoE will be most concerned about the increase in wage growth, which will create even more inflation, at a time when inflation is above 10%. Wages excluding bonuses rose to 5.7%, up from 5.5% and ahead of the consensus of 5.6%. There isn't much slack to speak of in the labour market and the BoE will be under pressure to continue hiking aggressively, even though this will hurt the struggling UK economy. The Fed may be breathing a bit easier today, as the exuberance which sent the stock markets flying last week appears to have subsided. Investors jumped all over the soft inflation report, as risk sentiment soared and the US dollar retreated. Fed members have responded by sticking to a hawkish script, as any dovish signals could complicate its battle to bring down inflation. Fed Vice Chair Brainard said on Monday that she favored slowing the pace of rate hikes, but that further hikes were required in order to bring down inflation. Brainard's stance was echoed by Fed member Waller who said that while the Fed may ease up on the size of future rate hikes, it should not be seen as a "softening" in its fight against inflation. Waller added that the 7.7% inflation reading in October was "enormous", a possible rebuke of the exuberance shown by investors to the drop in inflation. . GBP/USD has broken through several resistance lines today. The next resistance lines are 1.2030 and 1.2224 1.1703 and 1.1648 are providing support
by OANDA
GBPJPY BUYHello traders. GBPJPY has performed a quite bullish price action. But the market makers' game is usually trapping the retailers on Mondays and reverse the trend later during week. So, I am sceptical. The pair definitely needs corrections and that is not only an opinion of mine. It is overbought so many big players will close their profits pretty soon. However, it remains bullish in technical analysis and GBP is bouncing from the lows while JPY keeps loosing value. Drawing Fib levels from the Swing Low to Swing High, based of the last 4H impulse move, I consider the below Fib retracement area as a great long opportunity. 163.585 - 166.057 Note: it is at a weekly Supply level but I see the potential to break it and aim for Multiyear highs. good luck
Long
by The_Forex_Path
GBPCHF;PM SUNAK TO ATTEND SUMMITThe British-Irish Council summit will be attended for the first time in 15 years by UK Prime Minister Sunak. On Thursday, the Tory leader will also meet with his counterparts from Scotland and Wales to repair relations. According to Bloomberg, the UK government is also in favor of reducing the surcharge on bank profits to 3% in order to maintain the sector's competitiveness. A survey released on Thursday, British home prices dropped in October for the first time in 28 months, and the rising cost of mortgages threatened to further stress the real estate market. The October reading was the first negative reading after 28 positive monthly readings, showing that national house price growth was "grinding to a halt," according to RICS. While economists anticipate that the recent calm in the financial markets may offer some relief, it may be premature to predict that lending rates will decline.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
GBP/USD -8/11/2022-• Bearish picture still intact for the pound • Dovish BOE, recession risks weigh on the sentiment • Technical picture points towards weaker pound in the period ahead • Bulls and bears fighting around the resistance line dating back to Feb 2022 highs around 1.36 • As long as bears are able to defend the trend line resistance, they still got the upper hand • Bulls need to regain 1.164-1.174 levels to turn the odds in their favor • Next support at 1.114-5 where strong demand was found
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
A dovish BoE leads to a weaker UK PoundThe Bank of England delivered a 75bps rate hike last week but also signaled warnings of a deep recession and that rates may have peaked. This brought broad base weakness to the GBPUSD with the price testing a low of 1.1150. Toward the end of the week, weakness in the DXY brought a brief respite to the GBPUSD, with the price trading higher towards 1.1365. Look for the GBPUSD to trade higher towards the 1.1380 price level before trading lower again. If the price breaks below the 1.13 price level, the GBPUSD could slide lower to retest the key support level of 1.1150 again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
EURGBP short IF cross MABoth zones UK and Euro had rise their interest rates in 75bp. Days ago Lagard said ECB will continue raising rates to fight the inflation, and BOE are warning about a long recession, and the interest rates hikes in 30Y In this chart we can watch the price touching the resistance and a overbought at BB and RSI, changing the direction such as MACD that had already crossed the signal line. We can wait for the confirmation of short position after the candles cross the MA, and open our position against Eur if it's a strong short candle
Short
by AFCapital21
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – Sterling dropped on Thursday after the Bank of England’s November meeting. The BoE said borrowing costs were likely to go up less than markets expect and warned that the economy was heading for a protracted recession even as it raised rates by the most in three decades. Summarising the meeting, Reuters noted: “The BoE raised Bank rate by 75 basis points (bps) in an effort to tame double digit inflation, taking it to a 14 year high of 3%. It was the biggest rate hike since 1989, apart from a failed attempt to boost sterling on Black Wednesday in 1992. In a highly gloomy message, the BoE said Britain which is grappling with a sharp rise in energy and mortgage costs has probably tipped into a recession. It said the downturn could cause the economy to shrink in both 2023 and 2024. Analysts said sterling was reacting to the much less aggressive tone of the BoE compared to the Fed, as well as the dire economic outlook.”
by thunderpips
GBP/USD plunges on Powell, BOE warningThe British pound is sharply lower today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.179, down 1.83%. It has been a dreadful week for the pound, which has declined by 3.7%. The Bank of England delivered as advertised, raising rates by a super-size 75 basis points today in a 7-2 vote. This was the sharpest rate hike since 1989 and brings the cash rate to 3.0%. The jumbo rate hike comes at a delicate time, with the BoE warning that the UK is in a "prolonged recession". The BoE is projecting inflation will hit 11% before the end of the year and estimates that the recession could last two years. The Bank said that further rate hikes would be needed, but the terminal rate would be lower than what the markets have priced in, which is 5.2%. The BoE has not only witnessed a tumultuous period since the last meeting in September, but had to make its rate decision and forecasts without knowing government policy. A budget was supposed to be released last week but has been delayed until November 17th. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss' ill-fated mini-budget led to a near financial crisis and forced the BoE to buy massive amounts of bonds. Thankfully, stability has returned and the BoE began selling bonds earlier this week. The BoE's message to lower expectations about future rate hikes runs contrary to what Fed Chair Powell said at the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Powell warned that there were no signs that inflation had peaked and said that rates will peak at a higher level than previously expected. This hawkish message sent equity markets sharply lower and boosted the US dollar against all the major currencies.  The double-barreled punch of a hawkish Fed and grim warnings from the BoE have sent the pound reeling close to 2% today. There is resistance at 1.1346 and 1.1506 1.1118 and 1.1045 and providing support
by OANDA
Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday. Content: . The Interest Rate race has just started, why? . The impact on different currencies . It may not be all bad news, why? With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD. Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens. When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports. Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move. And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities. GBP Futures 0.0001 = $6.25 0.001 = $62.50 0.01 = $625 0.1 = $6,250 1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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by konhow
76
GBPAUD WOBBLES AHEAD OF RBADespite the highest inflation in three decades, Australian markets climbed on Monday, driven by banking firms, in anticipation of the central bank's much-anticipated moderate interest rate hike this week. In anticipation of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting this week, Wall Street closed substantially higher on Friday with all major U.S. indices up 2.5% or more. Financials (.AXFJ) rose as much as 1.3%, with the "Big Four" Australian banks rising between 0.8% and 1.7%. The biggest increase was seen at the top lender in the nation, Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA, which increased by 1.7%. The most recent data revealed that despite rising interest rates and growing inflation, retail sales in Australia held steady in September.
Short
by TradeyMarkets
GBP/USD jumps as Sunak takes the reinsThe pound has posted sharp gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1353, up 0.66%. Rashi Sunak is the new Prime Minister of the UK, the latest move in what has been a dizzying pace of political developments in the UK. Lizz Truss managed to stick around 10 Downing Street for a mere 44 days, after a mini-budget with unfunded tax cuts was a disaster and forced her to pack her bags. Sunak, a former finance minister, should fare better, but all agree that he faces an uphill battle in righting the leaky economy. Given all that has transpired over the past few weeks, if Sunak can re-establish a feeling of normalcy in the government, that will be a modest achievement. The challenge for Sunak will be immense. Inflation is running at 10% and the weak UK economy may already be in recession. The most recent data shows consumer spending, manufacturing and business activity on the decline. The cost-of-living crisis is getting worse and real earnings are falling, which could lead to worker unrest. Sunak has shown he is a capable politician but will need to keep the Conservative party united behind him if he is to succeed, with the opposition hoping they can capitalize on the political havoc and force a general election. The markets have reacted favorably to Sunak taking over as Prime Minister, as the British pound and UK gilts are higher today. Next week will be anything but dull, as the government is scheduled to deliver a budget on October 31st and the Bank of England holds its policy meeting on November 3rd. With inflation showing no signs of peaking, the BoE is widely expected to deliver an oversize interest rate in order to curb inflation.  A 0.75% hike is most likely, although there is an outside chance of a supersize full-point increase. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.1373 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 1.1471 There is support at 1.1266 and 1.1093
by OANDA