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EURGBP: Sterling weaker?EURGBP Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8835 (stop at 0.8740) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 0.9100 and 0.9200 Resistance: 0.9200 / 0.9340 / 0.9600 Support: 0.8825 / 0.8720 / 0.8630 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Pound weak and isolatedThe threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up. Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw restraint at 1.40xx. If 1.175x is taken then 1.15xx is next to account, leaving 1.05xx wide open for this to collapse like a house of cards. After 1.15xx, I suspect the helplessness of buyers will be quite touching. This swing position is technically very similar to the previous GBP waterfalls we traded together with Brexit, Elections etc, a classical momentum move. The prognosis for the Jackson flow seems quite good for sellers (not overwhelmingly so for those who are still sidelined). A test of the barricade at 1.19xx seems manageable, and where I am actively looking to add shorts, because for that the buyers would have been exhausted. Please note, invalidation only with closes above 1.20xx. A master plan! Let's see how our counter attack move plays out.
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | GBP for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig GBP FX Commentary for the Yearly Close Here I will start by presenting the following two diagrams: The safety of the Pound turns out to be rather deceptive with a Johnson cabinet which is becoming increasingly weak. And once more, surprise surprise the reason no-deal brexit is being blocked after Biden blockades is a sufficient explanation of the 'rescue' attempt from globalism. So the truth seems to come from the following facts; A lot of Brexit depended on the Trump protection. Without it Johnson is hanging and must scramble back to the EU for security. We can argue about the MT and LT impacts of Brexit but the ST includes a loss of initial market access which is unfavourable for GBP anyway. The flow is clearly balanced towards the downside, despite the dollar becoming quite weak and resistance looks overprotected. We will dig deeper and more frequently into the macro implications again in master praxis to track the inner flows. I will aim to close quite a few more of the original technical maps before we dissect the whys and hows of its worth. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
GBP may have 'Truss' issues, but it can still move higherThe British pound suffered a flash crash yesterday as Asian traders reacted to the UK’s mini budget, which many suspect will exacerbate inflation and increase debt. Some are already calling for a vote of no confidence for PM Truss. GBP/USD hit a record low before rebounding over 5% and GBP/JPY saw levels of volatility not seen since Brexit. And these levels of volatility did not go unnoticed by the BOE, who vowed they "will not hesitate to act" and raise rates to defend the pound if required. At one point yesterday money markets were pricing in a 200bp hike by November. And this has allowed GBP/USD to find some stability and shows the potential for another leg higher. The 1-hour chart shows that prices pulled back to a 50% retracement level and the monthly S1 pivot point, just above 1.0600. Momentum is now turning higher in the Asian session and we suspect is is part of an ABC correction against yesterday's selloff. • The initial target is around 1.0863 (38.2% Fib projection) • Perhaps it can rise to 1.1000 is the BOE keep up their hawkish rhetoric
Long
by CityIndex
Cable; The Big Wedge PatternCable is breaking down hard after British finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's announced tax cuts on energies. The plan is for households to save some money and to expand the supply side of the economy, but investors seem pessimistic about that, at least for the short-term period. We see cable coming down hard, but price is moving into 1985 low with a potential throw-over formation with the current wedge pattern, so from a long-term perspective, the multiyear support may not be far away. We will see what will the BoE response, but intervention or hawkish view can try to be supportive for the pound. Traders are already pricing 200bp of BOE hike by November this year.
by ew-forecast
Pound can't find its footingGBP/USD is down sharply today and has fallen below the 1.11 level for the first time since 1985. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1125, down 1.16%. The British pound can't seem to find any love. GBP/USD is looking dreadful, down 2.1% this week and 3.8% in September. The currency hasn't sunk to such levels since 1985 and the strong US dollar could extend the pound's current downtrend. The markets are focused on today's mini-budget and UK releases. In the mini-budget, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced tax cuts and more spending. With no funding for the tax cuts and increased borrowing, gilt yields have jumped, but that has failed to boost the pound. UK releases reiterated that the economy is in trouble, for anyone who needed reminding. GfK Consumer Confidence, which has been in a deep freeze, fell to -49, down from -44 and missing the forecast of -42 points. Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5, up from 47.3 and above the estimate of 47.5, but remained in contraction territory for a second straight month. Services PMI slowed to 49.2, down from 50.9 and shy of the estimate of 50.0. With both manufacturing and services in decline, the outlook for the UK economy remains grim. The Bank of England raised rates by 0.50% on Thursday. The pound did post some gains but couldn't hold on and closed the day almost unchanged. The move brings the cash rate to 2.25%, its highest since 2008. Still, it's fair to say that the 0.50% underwhelmed the markets, as there were some expectations for a more forceful hike of 0.75%. The BoE has been playing catch-up with inflation, which is running at 9.9% clip. The new Truss government has taken dramatic action to cap energy bills, which should help to curb soaring inflation. With the economy posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth and inflation still not under control, a recession appears unavoidable, which will likely add to the British pound's misery. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1117. Below, there is support at 1.1038 There is resistance at 1.1269 and 1.1342
by OANDA
BOE delivers 50bp hike, sterling steadyAs expected, the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 0.50%, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%. There was an outside chance that the BoE would press the rate pedal to the floor and deliver a 0.75% increase, but in the end, members decided unanimously on a less aggressive hike. The central bank is grappling with 9.9% inflation and a falling British pound, which means that more large hikes are likely coming. The British pound has edged higher and is trading at 1.1287. With the rate decision out of the way, the markets will focus on UK releases, which are expected to be soft. Later today, GfK Consumer Confidence, which has been in a deep freeze, is projected to tick up to -42, up from -44. The week wraps up with Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Friday. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 47.5, up from 47.3, while Services PMI is projected to slow to 50.0, down from 50.9. The Federal Reserve delivered a third straight hike of 0.75% on Wednesday, raising the benchmark rate to 3.25%. This was largely expected, although there was a possibility that the hawkish Fed might raise rates by a full point. The Fed's decision was a "hawkish 0.75% hike", which gave the US dollar a significant boost, as GBP/USD plunged 1.01% on Wednesday and closed below the 1.13 line. The Fed sent a clear message that it plans to remain aggressive, as inflation has proven much more persistent than anticipated. August inflation fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, but this was higher than the forecast of 8.1% and only reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance. Fed Chair Powell left the door wide open for yet another 0.75% increase in November, and unless inflation shows a dramatic drop, December is likely to bring a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%. With the benchmark rate now above the neutral rate of 2.50%, additional hikes will likely lead to a recession, but this is a price the Fed is willing to pay in order to curb red-hot inflation. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1269. Next, there is resistance at 1.1384 There is support at 1.1144 and 1.1061
by OANDA
GBP/USD steady after solid UK job dataGBP/USD is in positive territory today. In the European session, the pound is trading at 1.1731, up 0.42%. GBP/USD continues to take advantage of US dollar weakness and has gained 240 points since Thursday. Inflation has hit a staggering 10.1% and the Bank of England is projecting that inflation may not peak until 13%, with some analysts predicting an even higher peak. The manufacturing, services and construction sectors are either in contraction or stagnation and the country is going through a major change, with a new prime minister and a new monarch. The UK has phased out energy imports from the UK, but the weak EU economy is taking a toll on the UK, as the two are close trading partners. The UK labour market remains robust, one of the few bright lights in a grim economic landscape. Unemployment has fallen to 3.5%, a 50-year low, but wage growth in the three months to July rose 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. Employment rose by 40 thousand, down from 160 thousand prior and well below the forecast of 128 thousand. For the Bank of England, the job numbers actually increase the odds of a supersize 75 basis point hike next week, as wage growth continues to rise and the labour market continues to tighten. The BoE, which has failed to show until now that it can curb spiralling inflation, may regain some credibility with a 75bp move. All eyes are on the US inflation report, which will be released later today. The markets could be treated to mixed results - headline inflation is expected to drop to 8.1% (8.5% prior), while core CPI is forecast to rise to 6.1% (5.9% prior). With the Fed intent on remaining aggressive in order to tame inflation, the markets have priced in a 75bp increase at the September 21st meeting. The inflation release should be treated as a market-mover for the US dollar and has additional importance as it is the final key release before the Fed meeting. . GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1790. Above, there is resistance at 1.1931 There is support at 1.1689 and 1.1548
by OANDA
GBPUSD Can Rise As M Pattern Has CompletedTraders, GBPUSD can rise as an FCP M pattern has been completed. However this may not be able to push the price too high as the DXY is still rising and strong. So if you are looking for a smaller bounce then look for a confirmation on this GBPUSD pair and take the entry. On the chart there are 2 arrows which point at the approximate profit targets. Take one step at a time and manage the risk. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
Long
by vikinsa
1
Pound recovers losses after jobs reportThe British pound remains under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2055, unchanged the day. The pound fell as low as 1.2007 in the Asian session, just above the symbolic 1.20 line. The economic outlook in the UK is grim and today's employment report didn't bring any cheer. Unemployment claims continue to fall and the labour market remains strong, but wage growth indicates trouble. Wages dropped to 5.1% in June, down from 6.4% in May. However, real wages (adjusted for inflation) actually fell by 3% in Q2 on an annualized basis, a new record. The cost of living is thus increasing at an even faster rate and is far outpacing wage growth. The headline wage growth reading of 5.1%, which is not adjusted for inflation, may have fallen, but still remains high and will likely force the BoE to continue hiking aggressively. The BoE has forecast that inflation will hit a staggering 13% this year, and the last thing it needs to contend with is a wage-price spiral, which could entrench inflation. The markets won't have much time to dwell on the employment numbers, with the inflation report being released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 9.8% in July, up from 9.4% in June. If inflation pushes higher than the estimate, it could be a nasty day for the pound.  The Federal Reserve continues to send out the message that its rate hikes are far from over as the battle against inflation will continue for some time yet. The markets expect the Fed to raise rates to a peak in a range of 3.50% - 3.75%, well above the current benchmark rate of 2.50%. Despite this hawkish stance, the financial markets don't seem to be listening. US equity markets have been rising, while the US dollar, which should be benefitting from a hawkish Fed, is struggling. The lower-than-expected July inflation report of 8.5% raised risk sentiment and sent the dollar tumbling. If inflation resumes its upward trend in August, risk appetite could evaporate and the dollar might have the last laugh. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2030. Below, there is support at 1.1925 There is resistance at 1.2153 and 1.2258 
by OANDA
GBP/USD slides as Nonfarm Payrolls surgesThe British pound is falling sharply in the North American session, after a massively strong US nonfarm payment release. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2040, down 0.98% on the day. It wasn't so long ago that US nonfarm payrolls was one of the most anticipated events on the economic calendar and often had a significant impact on the movement of the US dollar. That has changed in the new economic landscape of red-hot inflation and central banks raising interest rates practically every month. The markets seem more absorbed with new inflation records and the threat of recession, which may make for more catchy headlines than labor market statistics. Today, however, NFP demonstrated its ability to be a market-mover. The July gain of 528 thousand crushed the estimate of 250 thousand and follows the June release of 372 thousand. The US dollar has responded with strong gains against the majors, as a strong labour market will enable the Fed to remain hawkish with its rate moves. The BoE was widely expected to raise rates by 50bp, and the central bank did exactly that. The MPC vote was 8-1 in favour, with one member voting for a 25bp hike. This split shows that Governor Bailey appears to have the MPC members in line, which should bolster Governor Bailey's credibility. With inflation hitting 9.4% in June and no sign of a peak, the BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation. The 50bp increase, the biggest in 30 years, is an important step in fighting inflation, which has hit 9.4% and shows no signs of peaking. Even with this hike, the Bank Rate is at 1.75%, well behind the Federal Reserve, the central banks of Canada and New Zealand and others. The BoE's rate increase was accompanied by a stark warning of a prolonged recession, and the pound responded with losses. The pound managed to recover these losses but it is clear that the currency isn't getting any support from the BoE's rate moves, with such a huge gap between inflation levels and current rates. Investors were also less than impressed as the BoE said that it might ease up on raising rates in the coming months. Governor Bailey has said he would be forceful in combating inflation, but the message that the central bank doesn't plan to be forceful with its forward guidance is weighing on the pound. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2128. Next, there is resistance at 1.2295  There is support at 1.2010 and 1.1876
by OANDA
GBPUSD technical analysis: 50-dma breakoutGBP/USD update The cable (GBP/USD) rose to 1.226, smashing the 50-day moving average for the first time since early February 2022, as speculators increased their expectations for a 50 basis point BoE rate hike this week, which would be the largest interest rate increase in 27 years, pushing borrowing costs to 1.75%, the highest level since 2009. With UK inflation running at 9.4% year on year in June, more aggressive action is needed to put out the fire and since economic activity and the labour market continue to demonstrate surprising resilience, the market anticipates that the BoE's board has more room for marked and front-loaded rate increases. Next resistance is now seen at 1.233 (June 27 highs) and 1.248 (early June support). The 14-day RSI spiked above 60, its highest since mid-January, and MACD is above zero for the first time since February.
by Capitalcom
Sterling unchanged ahead of retail salesThe British pound has been calm for most of the week and has edged lower on Thursday, trading at 1.1936 in the North American session. The UK economic calendar has been brimming all week, and Friday will be busy with retail sales and PMI reports. The markets are expecting retail sales to slow in June - headline retail sales is expected at -5.3% YoY, following the May reading of -4.7%, while the core reading is projected at -6.3% YoY, down from -5.7% in May. With inflation rising to 9.4% YoY in June, up from 9.1%, it's small wonder that weary consumers, pummelled by the cost-of-living crisis, are watching their pennies and cutting back on spending. This could spell trouble for the UK economy as consumer spending is a key driver of growth, and a slowdown in spending could tip the economy into recession. If the retail sales report is worse than forecast, I would expect to see the pound respond with losses. The markets are also expecting a de-acceleration from UK PMIs for June. Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow to 52.0, down from 52.8, while Services PMI is forecast to drop to 53.0, down from 54.3. Although the estimates point to continuing expansion, with readings above 50.0, a slowdown in manufacturing or services could make investors nervous and weigh on the British pound. The BoE has been criticized for its slow and tepid response to surging inflation, with critics pointing to the BoE's cautious rate hiking of only 0.25% at the last four meetings, which has brought the cash rate to a rather low 1.25%. The central bank has projected that inflation will climb to 11% before peaking, which means that consumers can expect the cost-of-living crisis to get even worse before things improve. Governor Bailey has hinted that a 0.50% hike is on the table at the August meeting, and such a move would help restore the Bank's credibility, which has been damaged in its bruising, and so far unsuccessful battle with inflation. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2018 and 1.2167  There is support at 1.1889 and 1.1740
by OANDA
Pound yawns as inflation climbsThe British pound is almost unchanged today, as GBP/USD trades at the 1.2000 line. UK inflation rose in June to its highest level since 1982, as the cost-of-living crisis has moved from bad to worse. Headline CPI hit 9.4% YoY, up from 9.1% in May and a notch above the consensus forecast of 9.3%. Core CPI dipped from 5.9% to 5.8%, matching the forecast. The UK employment report yesterday was stronger than expected, and together with the sizzling inflation numbers, there is strong pressure on the BoE to accelerate rate hikes. A strong labor market means that the economy should be able to withstand higher rate increases - the BoE has been ultra-cautious, raising rates a mere 0.25% five consecutive times. Clearly, that extent of rate tightening won't be enough to make a dent in inflation, which is approaching 10%. BoE Governor Bailey hinted in a speech yesterday that a 0.50% salvo was on the table at the August meeting. The BoE has essentially thrown in the towel in the fight against inflation, hoping that the elusive inflation peak will appear sometime later this year. The Bank expects inflation to hit 11% before easing lower. Wage growth declined sharply in the three months to May to 6.2%, down from 6.8%. With inflation rising and wage growth falling, consumers are getting hammered and the risk of a recession is high. Still, as far as the BoE is concerned, inflation remains enemy number one, and a recession is a price the central bank is willing to pay in order to reel in runaway inflation. The BoE has weathered a lot of criticism over its handling of inflation, and a 0.50% increase at the August meeting would help restore some credibility and show that the Bank is determined to stamp out inflation. GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2018. Above, there is resistance at 1.2167  There is support at 1.1889 and 1.1740
by OANDA
Sterling rises despite weak UK dataThe pound has edged higher today, shrugging off soft UK releases. Retail sales for May fell 0.5%, and declined 4.7% YoY, below the estimate of -4.5% (-5.7% prior). It was a similar story for core retail sales, which came in at -5.7% YoY, worse than the forecast of -5.1% (-6.1% prior). The sharp declines in consumer spending should not come as a surprise, given the inflation squeeze which continues to drag down the UK economy. Consumer confidence numbers remain in deep-freeze, as GfK consumer confidence for May notched lower to -41 in June, down from -40 in May. The continuing rise in the cost of living has become a crisis for UK households, and the predictable result has been weaker consumer confidence and spending. Inflation in the UK shows no signs of peaking, as headline CPI rose to 9.1% in May, up a notch from 9.0% in April. Inflation expectations are rising, and this week's major rail strike could be an initial response from organized labour, which will not be satisfied with 3% wage hikes when inflation is closing in on double digits. The BoE hasn't had succeeded in curbing inflation and expects inflation to top 11% later this year before finally easing. Unlike the Federal Reserve, the BoE has been reluctant to aggressively raise rates, with the BoE's most recent hike of 0.25% paling in comparison to the Fed's salvo of 0.75%. Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Capitol Hill this week was keenly watched by nervous markets. Powell didn't hold back any punches, acknowledging that a recession was "certainly a possibility", adding that a soft landing would be "very challenging". Powell mentioned the usual suspects beyond the Fed's control, namely, high commodity prices, supply chain issues and the Ukraine war. The Fed has not ruled out further 0.75% hikes, which will help curb inflation but could tip the economy into a recession. 1.2187 is providing support, followed by 1.1969  GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2283. Above, there is resistance at 1.2441
by OANDA
1