BOEING : FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION + NEXT TARGET The 737 MAX flight ban and the COVID-19 pandemic combined caused demand for Boeing commercial aircraft to decline to start in 2019. Cargo aircraft has been a rare source of positive momentum in the company's commercial aircraft business. Supply chain bottlenecks and a sharp decline in long-haul passenger flights, which can carry significant amounts of cargo on the belly, have increased demand for dedicated cargo aircraft.
However, Boeing's recent level of order and delivery activity in the freighter market does not appear sustainable. A large supply of used aircraft suitable for conversion to cargo aircraft, growing competition from Airbus, and new emissions regulations will deeply reduce Boeing's cargo aircraft business by the end of the 2020s.
The 737 MAX crisis has decimated Boeing's narrow-body franchise. To be fair, deliveries resumed last year, and order activity began to pick up. Nevertheless, Boeing 737 MAX deliveries still lag far behind those of the Airbus A320neo family, and the 737 MAX order book remains much smaller than it was a few years ago.
Because of this, Boeing is particularly reliant on wide-body aircraft, where the company has a stronger market position than Airbus. However, demand for passenger wide-body aircraft has plummeted as the pandemic and its accompanying international restrictions on long-haul travel have led to a collapse.
As a result, cargo planes suddenly became an important part of Boeing's range. Between April 2020 and the end of August 2021, Boeing delivered 123 wide-body aircraft, including a total of 46 passenger models. The company also delivered 14 Boeing 767s to its defense division for conversion to the KC-46A Pegasus military tanker. Cargo aircraft accounted for the remaining 63 wide-body aircraft: more than half of the total deliveries.
During the same period, Boeing received 136 gross orders for wide-body aircraft. This number includes only 33 orders for passenger wide-body aircraft, 29 orders for military tankers, and 74 orders for cargo aircraft. (Moreover, the number of canceled orders far exceeded the number of gross orders for Boeing widebody passenger aircraft.)
The recent surge in demand for new cargo planes won't last more than a few years. First, the pandemic caused temporary outages, which increased the workload of dedicated cargo planes. As noted above, the sharp decline in passenger traffic has taken a significant amount of capacity out of the air cargo market. In addition, global supply chain problems have caused some shippers to resort to air freight for goods that would normally be shipped by sea. These disruptions will not last forever.
Second, a huge number of wide-body planes are idle because of the pandemic. Many of them will eventually be converted to cargo planes rather than return to passenger transportation. Indeed, Boeing's long-term market forecast calls for only 890 new freighters over the next two decades, compared to 1,720 conversions of passenger planes to freighters.
Third, under current emissions regulations, Boeing will have to stop producing all existing models of cargo aircraft by the end of 2027. This may provide short-term sales growth as some customers seek to buy discounted 767F and 777F models before Boeing ceases production. But it also means that the industry giant will have to develop a new freighter soon to continue this line of business.
Boeing has dominated the market for new cargo planes in recent years. Airbus began shipping a cargo version of its A330 in 2010, but the A330-200F has only received 38 orders in its lifetime. However, Airbus intends to change its fortunes in the future. It recently began selling a freighter based on the much more fuel-efficient A350, which is scheduled to enter service in 2025.
Airbus has not yet announced orders for the A350 freighter, but company executives have said that numerous cargo airlines are interested in it. Meanwhile, Boeing is considering a cargo version of its next-generation 777X but has not yet made a decision. In the short term, it needs to certify passenger versions of the 777X first.
As a result, Airbus may gain a significant advantage over Boeing in selling next-generation cargo planes to customers for whom low fuel costs and emissions reductions are paramount. This would prevent Boeing from repeating its current dominance of the freighter market after 2025.
Boeing's estimate of 890 new freighters over the next 20 years implies an average of less than 45 deliveries per year. If Airbus can capture nearly half of the market, Boeing's annual cargo aircraft deliveries could drop to 25 units by the end of the 2020s, well below recent levels. The shrinking freighter business makes a resurgence in demand for widebody passenger jets even more important to Boeing's turnaround prospects.
Boeing
Boeing Analysis 04.10.2021Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next days/weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I would also appreciate, if you would smash that like button and help me to create more free analysis like that.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
$BA | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 9/27An extremely frustrating stock that feels like it's been bull-flagging forever. If you look at the previous trends, this stock has the tendency to drag out like crazy before exploding. Wave 4 looks to be in, bouncing off the 50% retracement multiple times and showing a complete ABCDE corrective phase.
As long as the $210 area holds, we should see a nice impulsive move up to the $300 area by December.
Actively watching flow and chart for potential long swing entry! Please view chart for in-depth breakdown of suggested play.
Boeing | Fundamental Analysis | Short scenario info update.Boeing has started to regain order momentum in 2021 after two crises - the 737 MAX flight ban and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first eight months of this year, the aerospace giant received 315 net orders for commercial aircraft. That is a welcome change after two years of negative net orders.
However, Boeing continues to fight hard to produce aircraft reliably and pass them on to customers. That will cause the company to continue to squander cash and could jeopardize its future recovery.
Boeing received 53 gross orders in August. Leading the way was the 737 MAX, with 35 orders from several customers, including Alaska Air and United Airlines. Boeing also recorded 11 orders for the 777 freighter - mostly from unspecified customers - and seven orders for the 787-9 Dreamliner (also from unspecified customers).
Net of cancellations and other adjustments, Boeing recorded 45 net orders in August. This increased orders to 4,164 commercial jets. By comparison, Airbus attracted 99 net orders last month. While Boeing still leads in orders for 2021, Airbus has many more orders in its portfolio, nearly 7,000 as of Aug. 31.
Airbus' significant order lead - especially in the narrow-body market - is a concern for Boeing. But Boeing's inability to deliver aircraft in large volumes is a much more pressing problem.
Last month, the company delivered just 22 commercial jets, compared to Airbus' 40. Similarly, in the first eight months of 2021, Boeing delivered 206 aircraft, while Airbus delivered 384.
The 787 Dreamliner series has been a notable upset in this regard. Boeing delivered just 14 787s in 2021, all from March through June. Just two years ago, the company was building and delivering 14 787s each month.
Over the past year, Boeing has identified several types of manufacturing defects affecting some Dreamliner aircraft. So far, the company has been unable to agree with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on a method of inspecting previously built 787s to make sure they are free of defects, which led to the latest supply halt.
More than 100 787s are currently stuck in the company's warehouses. According to The Wall Street Journal, Boeing won't be able to resume deliveries until at least the end of October.
The longer the delivery pause lasts, the greater the risk of triggering contract provisions that would allow customers to cancel orders without penalty. Given how slowly the demand for long-haul aircraft is recovering, many will not hesitate to take this chance.
Boeing's progress in eliminating the 737 MAX inventory is also disappointing. The company had about 425 737 MAXs in inventory at the beginning of the year, and in the first half of 2021, that number was down by only 35. With 22 additional 737 MAX deliveries in July and just 14 in August, Boeing made little progress in reducing 737 MAX inventory this quarter.
In the near term, Boeing's slow pace of aircraft deliveries will hurt cash flow. (Airlines typically pay most of the purchase price of an airplane after it is delivered.) Last quarter, Boeing delivered 79 commercial airplanes and drained $705 million in cash. Given that aircraft deliveries will reach the same level in the third quarter -- and with a weaker product mix -- Boeing will again be rapidly burning through cash.
In addition, the excruciatingly slow pace of shipments of the 737 MAX calls into question underlying demand for the model. Airbus has had no problem turning over significantly more A320neo family aircraft to customers this year, despite the pandemic.
Looking ahead, the 787 production problems will make Boeing's recovery more difficult. Boeing has already begun cutting production of the 787 family from 14 to 10 planes a month in 2020. With only 428 direct Dreamliner orders left, of which more than 100 have already been built, even a production rate of 10 months will be difficult to maintain in the near term (unless there is a surge in orders).
If customers start to exercise the right to cancel orders, Boeing could be forced to keep production well below ten aircraft per month for the foreseeable future. It will undoubtedly limit future profits and cash flow.
Fun Prediction for $BA - Must See!I decided to make my own prediction and draw in my own RSI, MACD, & 50 MA lines from today (9/14/21) through (2/25/22).
The pink bells indicate past explosive bullish movement (ER run ups?)
I have also created a fib extension from the last impulse wave
Let me know what you guys think of my prediction!
My Plan for 9/14/21 - 9/24/21
Entries: $214, 213.50
Exits: $218, 218.50, $220
Once any of my entries are triggered, I will hop in a $BA $217.5c 9/24/21 (3.30)
-Gordy
The Boeing ($BA) Company to $300+?Boeing is about to hit trendline support at 212.56. The bottom of this trendline trend is March lows. I believe these lows are the strongest support.
MASSIVE Cup and Handle forming on the 1D. Consolidation phase near completion.
Fundamentally, COVID vaccines should support BA as a company and as a stock.
Technically and Fundamentally bullish IMO.
This trendline support and cup and handle should send BA to highs. Target: $300. Potential exit points 225 240, 260, 280.
This is not financial advice. This is a case study for entertainment purposes. Do not take anything I say as any form of advice or financial advice.
Boeing - Decision TimeThis month, Boeing must make a decision as to rather or not it will breakup or down. We can see the downward curve that has been applying pressure on Boeing meets the long term uptrend line. Levels have been listed and if I am long, I want to see Boeing break above the red line/curve with a successful back test to prove that it is not yet another false breakout.
BOEING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION |SHORT VIEW 🔔After a significant portion of commercial airplane orders faded in 2019 and 2020, Boeing began to rebuild its production backlog in 2021. The aircraft producer has reported positive net orders for six straight months. The company will likely prolong that sequence to seven months when it announces its August order activity next week.
However, compared to Airbus, Boeing's order book still looks pale due to the A320neo family's advantage over the 737 MAX. This week, Airbus received an important order from Jet2.com, an old-time BA client, a British travel airline. This setback underscores the fact that the U.S. aerospace giant is still struggling.
In recent years, Airbus has persistently kept an advantage over Boeing in terms of orders, especially in the narrow-body segment. But the gap widened when Airbus bought a majority stake in the CSeries aircraft program - now known as the A220 - in 2018, and widened productively after the Boeing 737 MAX was banned from flying two years ago.
As of the end of 2015, Boeing had 4,392 firm orders for the 737 family, while Airbus had 5,535 direct orders for the rival A320 family. This gave Airbus a 56% share of orders for narrow-body aircraft between the two leading aircraft manufacturers, a substantial benefit but merely an authoritative position. Two years later, Airbus' share has risen to 57%.
But by the end of July this year, orders for Boeing's narrow-body aircraft had dropped to 3,314, largely because a string of orders for the 737 MAX had faded over the past couple of years. Meantime, Airbus ended the month with 6,100 firm orders for narrow-body aircraft, with the A320neo family accounting for more than 90% of that portfolio. That brings Airbus' share of orders for the two competitors' narrow-body aircraft to 65%.
For most of its history, Jet2.com has operated exclusively Boeing aircraft. Today it has about 90 aircraft in its fleet, almost all of them Boeing 737s.
Last year, however, Jet2 tried leasing an A321. Apparently, the leisure-oriented airline liked what it saw. On Tuesday, Jet2 and Airbus announced that the airline had placed a direct order for 36 A321neos with options for 24 more. That proved initial Reuters reports that Jet2 was on the verge of switching to Airbus. Jet2 said the planes would be delivered within five years, through 2028.
Airbus probably offered big discounts to poach Jet2 from Boeing. However, the A321neo's superior capabilities over the 737 MAX 9 and 737 MAX 10 gave it the opportunity to win this business. Jet2 will equip its A321neo with 232 seats, slightly more than the 737 MAX 10's maximum capacity of 230. In addition, the A321neo can operate from shorter runways than the 737 MAX 9 or 737 MAX 10, giving Jet2 more operational flexibility.
Jet2's decision to replace dozens of Boeing aircraft with the A321neo shows that Airbus continues to hold the advantage in this rivalry.
Of course, Boeing still has a solid backlog for the 737 MAX and continues to receive new orders from several key customers. On the other hand, Boeing will need to significantly increase order volume to support a sustained return to peak production rates. Furthermore, heavy reliance on a few customers has its drawbacks. First of all, large customers tend to accept the biggest discounts, which affects margins.
There is no doubt that Airbus is not going to make life easy for Boeing. The European aircraft manufacturer plans to increase production of the A320neo family to a record high by mid-2023, with a subsequent increase in production through 2025. It will open up additional slots for deliveries, preventing Boeing from getting default orders as a result of Airbus' larger backlog.
The 737 family of aircraft has been a real financial trough for Boeing in the past. The huge global oversupply in the widebody market will make the 737 MAX even more important in the near term. Unfortunately, over the next decade, Boeing will likely have to build the 737 MAX at a slower pace and at lower margins than investors anticipated just several years ago. As a result, Boeing stock will be grounded for some time.
BA needs to Bounce and Soon!Unpopular Opinion
BA
- Looks weak.
- Needs more good news and less bad news. :rolling_eyes:
- Needs to stay above the moving averages.
- Could drop to $202
- Worse: Could drop to $192.65
- Worst: Could drop to close the gap near $158.10 (Market would literally have to crash. Seems less likely.)
I'm not posting this to discourage...just keep your eyes open. BA is the government's baby, they won't let it die...plus there are bulls waiting at multiple levels below. Keep this in the back of your mind just in case. It's September and if it's like the last couple of years, the market will slow down and eventually turn into "Red October."
Meanwhile, trade the trend lol
BA Should Move Higher Here Boeing just reported its first profitable quarter in 6 quarters, we should continue to see Boeing report profitable quarters given the emergence of air travel that has taken place over the past couple months. Also, if your an investor that is worried about a slow bounce back in travel due to the delta variant, you should take comfort in the fact that 40% of boeing's revenue its defense business which has held strong during the entire pandemic.On Friday after the market was closed Boeing was awarded a $487m contract from the US Army for Apache AH-64 engineering services and technical support.
Trading Plan on Boeing, 101 explanation.Hello guys! today we will analyze BA. We are planning on developing a setup here, and we want to explain the full idea.
The first thing we should see is the big picture: We have a broken descending trendline with a massive corrective pattern on the edge of it. If you check the logarithmic chart on the weekly timeframe, you can see that this situation has happened a lot of times in the past
Based on the research we made, one of the ways of trade this situation is waiting for the breakout of the big correction on the edge of the descending trendline and look for a smaller correction to trade. This provides us with a big risk-reward ratio that also allows us to fail many times until we hit the correct setup. Based on historical data, this setup has a success rate of around 55% and an average risk-reward ratio above 3, which is something PHENOMENAL!
The target we will be using is the higher part of the expanding channel.
What happens if the setup nothing happens? Beautiful answer for that: You don't trade
What happens if the price executes the setup and then it goes straight to the stop loss area? Another beautiful answer for that: you lose 1%, no one has died because of that.
Thanks for reading, guys! If you have any doubt about this or any vision you want to share, just write it in the comment box. Have a good one.
Boeing stock analysis. $BA box inception Today I am going to show you implementation of my boxes trading strategy on NYSE:BA stock price movement.
Boeing stock price has been extremely volatile since the COVID crash.
Let's take a look at it's last 6 month price movement.
1. Price bounced from long-term support and found a new demand at 205.
2. Price reached 278 and got rejected from a strong resistance. Thus, big box was formed at respective supply and demand levels.
3. Price dropped and could not get past 258 level during the span of the next 4 months. At the same time demand was found at 220 level, forming anoter box.
4. Breakout of the box downward led to return to the original 205 demand level in the bigger box, which happened to be at the long-term support line as well. That's a strong level.
5. Price soared all the way to 240 and rejected to form another smaller box.
September action will be crucial for determining further stock direction.
Watch for trend line breakouts as they are coming closer.
If the long-term support does not hold - we move lower to the box demand. If that does not hold either, we move lower to another long-term trend line.
If the price breaks through the smaller box supply and resistance trend line, we move higher to the big box supply of 278.
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise.
BA: Watch for the bounce backAs we had more and more bad news and fast-growing covid cases there was a general downtrend beginning from March. Now we are getting to good levels of support to buy.
That’s my trading setup
1. Buy: 204.83
Stop loss: 203.23 (-0.74%)
First Target: 220.69 (+7.68%)
Second Target: 230.49 (+14.49%)
2. Buy: 192.53
Stop loss: 191.07 (-0.70%)
First Target: 204.83 (+7.09%)
Second Target: 220.69 (+15.43%)
I think it is more likely that we see a bounce back at 204$ range. We have the opportunity of a double bottom, have support of the 400 SMA (orange) where we often saw great support (green marked). Daily RSI is oversold (bullish), MACD is pretty neutral.
At the second buy we reach the bottom of the parallel downtrend line to bounce up and double bottom with the strong support of 192.49$.
Spirit Airlines - Whiplashed Hopium poggers jumped the gun. *valuation matters. Small caps with growing revenues TODAY matter most in rising rate environment.
$GNLN
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