SPX to 2300 before major bounceThanks for viewing,
I am of the view that the major injection of liquidity will cause a short-term minor bounce and then downward again. There are major issues with consumers withholding spending, goods can't be made, can't be shipped, and people won't buy them. Liquidity can only minimise the second-order effects of that (delay or defend against bankruptcies). No demand, no supply, but record levels of liquidity.
If you think the worst is over and Munchkin can solve the issue by printing extreme amounts of currency and making a couple of TV appearances, then you should buy. If you believe Jim Cramer, you should buy. If you see how these steps are going to compare to a stream of the ever-worsening news of (I am very sorry to say) an unfolding human crisis then you might see further downside as more than likely.
A little tid-bit of the heartbreak presently;
- There is a video of an Italian newspaper that has 7 times the amount of space devoted to obituaries as compared to a few weeks ago,
- Lombardy (a very wealthy region in a developed nation) is not treating suspected COVID-19 patients over 65 anymore (or patients under 65 that have pre-existing conditions), no assessment, no treatment, and no one attends when they flat-line (no "code blue" crash carts like in the TV soaps),
- Italian Doctors have stated concerns about whether Italy can maintain the functions of a nation state (their concerns don't stop at the hospital door).
Ok, that got a bit dark - but its all true (and music to the ears of Preppers) - how do you think markets will react now that COVID-19 has established a firm foot-hold in the contiguous United States? The average doubling time of cases is 3-6 days so far. I'm scared of how it's going to go and I don't even live there. What is going to happen to Boeing stocks when Seattle and then Washington State calls in the National Guard to enforce quarantines? Look I am not wanting any of this to happen and I am certainly not taking any joy from any of it. Actually, I hope I am completely wrong about all of it.
I may be trading on a break below wave 3 (red line) if I can bring myself to profit from disaster.
Be more like Taiwan (which is a real country - it is not "Taipei and Environs") who ON THE SAME DAY as China announced cases of a new pneumonia to the WHO started assessing passengers inbound from Wuhan. Some countries still aren't doing that. Expect a little more from your elected officials - because their inaction, delays, and incompetence will cost everyday people.
Ok, thats more than enough from me.
Boeing
Boeing bear market continuesBoeing may reach support below $205 - $180, but I wouldn't like to bet that it will hold in the medium term.
Boeing was in bad shape even before this virus came along, but now the outbreak is getting very serious indeed AND it is worst in the state that they manufacture most air-frames. They also manufacture in California, which is well on its way to a outbreak of its own. I have been following daily updates on the spread of COVID-19 (since before it was called that) since 27th January and it was clear that we had almost no chance of containing it - but the response from the CDC has been woeful so far.
There is almost no question that;
1, The outbreak in Washington State is presently out of control - containment HAS failed,
2, this will significantly affect major manufacturers in the state - Boeing being the largest,
3, There is a possibility that some or all of those manufacturers in Washington State will be forced to deal with a temporarily reduced workforce and may have to down tools in large portions of production lines and may have to shutter whole factories for some time.
4, There also may be major disruptions to free movement incoming (the only avenue really left to stem the outbreak) so there is a real possibility that all Boeing manufacturing operations may at some stage be wholly paused.
Later on down the line, after the spread and the economic impacts has been more of a national scale will we know the full scope of this - in human and economic terms, but a deep recession seems almost unavoidable presently.
I want to be clear that despite the remaining down-side I will not short Boeing. There may be other Companies I refuse to short in the future, but for now I just can't bring myself to short Boeing. This is despite a significant portion of their troubles being from internal sources and that such troubles continue to be mis-handled. Too many people rely on their aircraft being supported adequately for many years to come. I hope that they emerge from this situation a stronger organisation.
BA ON A FREE FALL TO 150 , BROKEN ALL SUPPORT AND BAD NEWS Finally this one breaks down , seems like the virus + airline woes + Boeing woes + economic woes finally got the big guys to let it fall
Start catching it around 150 for long term portfolio , it is still a duopoly and a too big to fail one
Good luck and be nimble
Boeing Bottom?To no surprise, the travel industry has been beaten down more than the rest of the market. Between plane malfunctions, travel restrictions and more, Boeing is way oversold-- sitting down ~40% this month. Entering at the $160-170 range, where previous resistance turned support, should be a 'safe' place to buy for a quick flip.
Boeing emergency landing SHORTbuckle up
unfortunately the following is not a meme but some fundamentals..-Boeing spokesman Gordon Johndroe said Sunday the U.S. planemaker “identified this issue as part of that rigorous process, and we are working with the FAA to perform the appropriate analysis. It would be premature to speculate as to whether this analysis will lead to any design changes.”
The New York Times reported Boeing is reviewing whether two bundles of wiring are too close together, which could lead to a short circuit and potentially result in a crash if pilots did not respond appropriately.
$BA Weekly Head & Shoulders Pattern??This is a WEEKLY chart. Each candle represents a week of price activity.
Let me start by saying I don't usually invest / trade based on a Head & Shoulder pattern. I am not, and do not claim to be, anything but "basically" informed about this pattern. Please feel free to correct me if I need it. I did reference StockCharts.com for info on the Head and Shoulders Top. This is the address of the page
school.stockcharts.com
Let's assume this is a H&S pattern. Well then my downtrend support line could also be called the "Neckline". This is a good place to look for BA to reverse. But if BA does not reverse here then it might be a good idea to research "Measured Move" or price target of a H&S pattern. Especially of you are holding BA stock or want to start a new position. By the way, Price Target is item #9 on the StockCharts.com page I referenced earlier.
No matter what the chart says to me today, lets all agree that Boeing is not going out of business so it is not going to zero. Boeing has a good business, little competition, and is a leader in its business segment. But that doesn't mean it can't go down. The question for me is where will it go next. I also like to consider the viability of potential "price targets". Is $130 a viable price for BA? Before you answer, please consider that I could have asked you, anytime over the last two years, if $260 was a viable price for Boeing...
Boeing makes airplanes. They supply many airlines around the world. But thanks to a virus that shall remain unnamed in this post, airlines are cancelling flights. As travel demand goes down so does the demand for new planes. As the demand for new planes goes down so does Boeing's sales. As Boeing's sales go down so does their ability to "earn" money (earnings).
Side Note - If you buy companies or their stock based on P/E ratios you need to be extra careful in times like this. The E in your ratio is an estimate! What if your E gets revised down? As the denominator of a fraction gets smaller, the value of the fraction gets larger. I understand that the P in your ratio is also getting smaller recently. But please don't blindly accept the value of the ratio with the same E in the denominator. If the value of E gets smaller, you might be buying a stock based on a larger P/E ratio than you think.
Back to Boeing's business. They have a new plane called the "MAX". You know the one I am referring to. It is grounded at the moment. When the FAA decides to re-certify the Max, that will be good for Boeing. But how good? Are the airlines - that don't need new planes because their demand has dwindled - going to buy the planes and put them in service? Will the re-certification lead to more sales immediately? Admittedly this is an oversimplified argument to make. But I think we need to consider it and the possibilities...
The Good News -
There is a chance that BA could bounce right here. BA's closing price on Friday was just above the downtrend line. It actually gained a lot of ground going into the close on Friday. Too much in my opinion but who am I?? If BA can stay above the downtrend line it may start going up from here. If you are waiting for Boeing to start heading higher, pay attention. You could start a small position around here as a test. But only a very small one. If BA drops back below the downtrend line I would personally sell that very small position and wait.
What would you be waiting for? Less fear of getting sick and more passengers booking flights. Better news in general. Deliveries of airplanes that were manufactured but are now sitting in the desert. How about a date when the airlines are going to start flying to all of Asia again. Anything positive.
R.I.P. BOEING AIRLINES, WEEKLY H & S, Previously Predicted 12/19I said it before and I will say it again, Boeing is dead, get the heck out! In December I noted that we had a huge potential head and shoulders on Boeing.
I've got my Fibonacci targets showing up at $236, $178, and $135. I would expect to see $236 by early next month, $178 by April- May and $135 within June-Aug.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
BOEING (BA): AND NOW WE BROKE!
key weekly support has been broken on Boeing.
the breakout is considered to be confirmed and many days the market is trading below the level now.
the absence of structure on the left is the peculiar thing about this stock.
the first strong support is lying around 190.0 level.
technically, boeing is risking to start a free fall,
only intervention will save it from that.
we will see!
Is HBAR doing the same as LINK did?HBAR had a golden cross when the Google News came out. Since the push, it retraced, only to hit the Golden Cross Emas.
The uptrend line looks exactly the same as the one on LINK (both uptrend lines to be drawn ignoring the false escape early on the uptrend).
LINK had the support from the big W which you can see from your proper eye. HBAR had the support from recent support line / resistance wick.
The targets could be way higher than I expected them to be at first.
HBARUSDT - 20-30% ExplosionI expect this one to move at least 20-30% to around 0.046-0.050$ target.
From there, we have to reevaluate, it may be the start of another leg up too.
After the google hype it cooled down a bit to the 0.382 Fibonacci. From here, we have a chance to make a move, depending on what BTCUSD is doing.
//The PINK line is from yesterday, don't look at it :)
Boeing is being forced into a shorts zone.NYSE:BA
On February 12, long players tried to test a strong mirror level of 350$. As it may seem, it was impossible to break a long-time retest immediately.
At the last trades we closed almost the low, at $330.38, which shows us that the short seller has not fully gained position and is pushing the price down. Only $3.15 are left to the nearest level ($327.7) of resistance. Regarding to ATR, this level will be tested in the nearest trading session. Well, according to the classic genre, if we enter the short zone below $327, then fly us down.
NB: No matter whether you take my ideas into account or not, you should trade only at your own risk ( risk-on-trade) and from MM-strategy. Don't forget to use SL-orders.
BA Short IdeaAlthough I believe that Boeing is one of the stronger performing companies historically in the grand scheme of things, and though I also believe that they will be releasing some cutting edge technology in the next decade, I'm skeptical of the current value due to so much of the 737 drama over the last year.
Boeing has been selling less and less planes and what would have been plane orders for Boeing over the last 12mo are now instead being filled by the European competitor Airbus.
737 Max models continue to fill employee parking lots and are parked around the world until the company can resolve fears of mechanical and technical issues with the aircraft.
I think more pain is about to come for Boeing shareholders and I'm entertaining the idea of an entry to go long into 2030 and beyond, but at a lower price.
Thoughts?
Trade your own plan, this is just an idea.