Boeing Neutral Position - Iron CondorI'm going to run an Iron Condor on BA because its fading toward support and it may hold at this level for some time. IV is pretty high so the trade will be a rather wide IC and quick price target.
300/305/360/365 Spot price is at $341 at this time. Exp will be July 19th.
140/360 Reward to Risk ratio.
Price target is $110/220 Evaluation date will be July 1st.
52-Week (HV): 30, 30-Day IV: 28.2 +1.5
IV Pct Rank: 57%
This is a journal entry and not trade advice.
Boeing
$BA Where Bad News is Good? Boeing (BA) to recognize charge and increased costs in second quarter due to 737 max grounding; amounts relate to expensing of estimated potential concessions and other considerations to customers and impact of continued lower 737 max production rate; said charge will result in a $5.6B reduction of revenue and pre-tax earnings in quarter and will record an after-tax charge of $4.9B
I'm all about ":flag_us: first, but this has been propped up far too long.
Watching these levels closely. If we break above resistance (red line) 384 area could be next, but there is too much downside risk.
Airlines price targets - non-MAX operators BULL** Credit Suisse says non-MAX operators such as Delta Air Lines, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group to benefit most from reduced supply levels in the form of higher load factors and fares
** LUV and AAL combined have the highest exposure to MAX fleet in U.S.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price targets / analysts:
CS downgrades American Airlines Group Inc to "underperform" form "neutral", cuts PT to $30 from $32, citing extended grounding's of MAX jets and ongoing mechanics labor dispute
Cuts PT for Southwest Airlines Co to $51 from $53, while also lowering 2019 EPS estimate to $4.07 from $4.45 due to the airline's inability to capitalize on market demand
Upgrades JBLU to "neutral" from "underperform", raises PT to $19 from $16 due to strong seasonal leisure demand and continued execution of cost and revenue initiatives
Raises PT for United Airlines Holdings Inc to $113 from $111 despite its smaller MAX exposure compared to LUV and AAL
BOEING 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLE PATTERNPrice has created an ascending triangle pattern which has a bullish bias
The declining Volume and ATR/Volatility levels indicate traders have lost interest in investing in Boeing
This is creating consolidation pressure on the top triangle level @ 379.30
Trade Plan
Buy a daily close above 379.30
Breakout Candle must be 100% of the average volume for a full size position
If bar is only at 75% of the average volume then only trade 1/2 position size
Open two trades - 1% each
Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR
1st Take Profit is 1 x ATR
2nd trade no TP let profit run
When 1st TP hit, move SL of 2nd trade to breakeven
Watch our YouTube video for further information on this trade
Boeing trade entry and exit example Boeing still has around -9% to go. It might be worth a trade.
I am just watching. Not because I don't expect the price to follow my expectations - for other reasons.
However, Boeing is a significant proportion of the Dow (11.26% of the Dow: qz.com). If you are watching the Dow, you would have noticed last weeks steep drop. Expect a lower high to be set in next weeks rally before the correction continues.
Let's see what happens. Protect those funds everyone.
BA - Boeing Long Term RecoveryBA proved time and time again that they are a strong company. Sure there could be some problems with certain segments but overall very few areas of the market can you find this quality of intrinsic value & dividend - Equities at least for this posts sake, IMO.
Clear break of the downward range I've been outlining in recent posts - RSI & MACD need to cool off a bit but today's move also had some recovery from the weeks prior - so pretty expected outcome with todays media coverage also considered.
It's never an easy road to recovering back to ATH but Boeing has potential to make explosive moves in the Short to Near term - assuming media events & a little luck comes our way. 737MAX Clearance coming closer and closer & add 200 more planes to the sales list after today. All good things.
Always long with BA - GLTA
Beautiful BA Price movementBoeing recorded new orders and with their push to "re brand" the 737 Max (Perhaps not a name change) but helping the public gain trust in BA is a great step in the right direction. Industry continues to expand and BA still has BILLIONS in PO and business in its pipeline.
BA will be fine LT, Join in on the discount.
Anticipating move this week w/ Paris air show media Just a gut feeling with some techniques thrown in there. Test of our MAs coming and interesting movement today - but we are near the top of my resistance so if something meaningful happens to drive us to the lower support - will look to add here and there.
PT1: $370
Looking to add at $320-$330 if we get there, Long term BA will be fine.
GLTA
BA July 355/370 bull debit vertical spreadThis technically-driven call debit spread on Boeing entails buying a 355 call and selling the 370 call, both with standard july expiry. The cost of taking this position is a debit of 6.35, making the break even 361.33. This is slightly below the long term support levels, and the resistance of the upper boundary of the horizontal channel, which will become a support after it is penetrated. The lows from March 22nd and April 10th were both roughly 362. Once this was penetrated the stock has traded in a horizontal range. This support around 362 has been tested a couple times; this makes it stronger when it is finally broken through. Also, the 50 day simple moving average is at 365, and the 200 simple moving average is at 363, further strengthening this area of support. The maximum profit for this trade is reached at the strike of the written call, 370, and is the difference between the strikes minus the debit (15-6.35= 865/contract). This trade is 18.91 deltas positive per contract.
Will Boeing crash - like its planes?Boeings M737 Max problems are said to be over due to its software fix, according to industry gurus out there. I disagree! Why? This is not a software problem. This is a nightmarish legal problem in the backdrop. Earnings on Boeing are expected to suffer in June-July. Like really - are all the gurus expecting bigger earnings when Boeing is likely to suffer a big hit from its legal troubles? Gurus do all sorts of crazy things.
In the charts I show RSI divergence on the Monthly time frame, and two trend switches on the weekly time frame. The 4H time frame shows an ideal position for a controlled loss (i.e. stoploss). Sure - price could bust north on the 4H but there is nothing to say that it can't go south, except feelings, hope and a bunch of emotion.
Just to be clear, this is not a recommendation to short - even if on Monday if price is right, I'm shorting on 4H or 6H.
BOEING, long from accumulation zone.Sometime ago all newspapers writing about bad boeing plens and another things after which price for this stock strongly go down. But now all these worries have left the heads of investors and you can safely invest in the company's shares. There is accumulation zone for purchases 361 - 392. First level for sell is 431. So strong up.