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Boeing: Approach for a Landing 🛬In line with our primary scenario, the Boeing stock price is pitching further downward. Soon, the magenta wave (2) should find its completion above the $176 mark. Subsequently, we expect rises above the resistance at $267.54. However, this primarily anticipated uptrend could be interrupted halfway. If the price reverses before reaching the resistance at $267.54 and falls below the $176 mark (37% likely), we will have to assume that it will land in our dark green Target Zone between $172.25 and $130.78.
NYSE:BA
by MarketIntel
Boeing: Approach 🛬Boeing is approaching the low of wave (4) in magenta, but still has got room left to expand this movement further southward. As soon as it is finished, though, the share should turn upward to steer above the resistance at $228.16, heading for the dark green zone between $251.82 and $288.54. There, Boeing should complete wave 1 in dark green before maneuvering southward again. However, there is a 34% chance that the share could have concluded wave alt.1 in dark green by now. In that case, it would spin below the support at $173.85 and into the lower dark green zone between $168.58 and $141.08 to already develop wave alt.2 in dark green. This low would then initiate further upward movement.
NYSE:BA
by MarketIntel
Boeing: Aerobatics ✈️Welcome to Boeing’s aerobatics-show! Watch with bated breath as the share is taking off from the magenta-colored zone, propelling toward the resistance at $224.76, which it should conquer soon to conclude the loop of wave 1 in green in the green zone between $251.82 and $288.54. Then, in a death-defying stunt, Boeing should drop back below $224.76 and dive below the support at $173.85 afterward. However, there is a 33% chance that Boeing could curb its boost earlier, slipping below $173.85 prematurely to develop wave alt.2 in green into the green zone between $168.58 and $141.08. In that case, wave alt.1 in green would have already been finished in January.
NYSE:BA
by MarketIntel
BOEING : FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION + NEXT TARGET The 737 MAX flight ban and the COVID-19 pandemic combined caused demand for Boeing commercial aircraft to decline to start in 2019. Cargo aircraft has been a rare source of positive momentum in the company's commercial aircraft business. Supply chain bottlenecks and a sharp decline in long-haul passenger flights, which can carry significant amounts of cargo on the belly, have increased demand for dedicated cargo aircraft. However, Boeing's recent level of order and delivery activity in the freighter market does not appear sustainable. A large supply of used aircraft suitable for conversion to cargo aircraft, growing competition from Airbus, and new emissions regulations will deeply reduce Boeing's cargo aircraft business by the end of the 2020s. The 737 MAX crisis has decimated Boeing's narrow-body franchise. To be fair, deliveries resumed last year, and order activity began to pick up. Nevertheless, Boeing 737 MAX deliveries still lag far behind those of the Airbus A320neo family, and the 737 MAX order book remains much smaller than it was a few years ago. Because of this, Boeing is particularly reliant on wide-body aircraft, where the company has a stronger market position than Airbus. However, demand for passenger wide-body aircraft has plummeted as the pandemic and its accompanying international restrictions on long-haul travel have led to a collapse. As a result, cargo planes suddenly became an important part of Boeing's range. Between April 2020 and the end of August 2021, Boeing delivered 123 wide-body aircraft, including a total of 46 passenger models. The company also delivered 14 Boeing 767s to its defense division for conversion to the KC-46A Pegasus military tanker. Cargo aircraft accounted for the remaining 63 wide-body aircraft: more than half of the total deliveries. During the same period, Boeing received 136 gross orders for wide-body aircraft. This number includes only 33 orders for passenger wide-body aircraft, 29 orders for military tankers, and 74 orders for cargo aircraft. (Moreover, the number of canceled orders far exceeded the number of gross orders for Boeing widebody passenger aircraft.) The recent surge in demand for new cargo planes won't last more than a few years. First, the pandemic caused temporary outages, which increased the workload of dedicated cargo planes. As noted above, the sharp decline in passenger traffic has taken a significant amount of capacity out of the air cargo market. In addition, global supply chain problems have caused some shippers to resort to air freight for goods that would normally be shipped by sea. These disruptions will not last forever. Second, a huge number of wide-body planes are idle because of the pandemic. Many of them will eventually be converted to cargo planes rather than return to passenger transportation. Indeed, Boeing's long-term market forecast calls for only 890 new freighters over the next two decades, compared to 1,720 conversions of passenger planes to freighters. Third, under current emissions regulations, Boeing will have to stop producing all existing models of cargo aircraft by the end of 2027. This may provide short-term sales growth as some customers seek to buy discounted 767F and 777F models before Boeing ceases production. But it also means that the industry giant will have to develop a new freighter soon to continue this line of business. Boeing has dominated the market for new cargo planes in recent years. Airbus began shipping a cargo version of its A330 in 2010, but the A330-200F has only received 38 orders in its lifetime. However, Airbus intends to change its fortunes in the future. It recently began selling a freighter based on the much more fuel-efficient A350, which is scheduled to enter service in 2025. Airbus has not yet announced orders for the A350 freighter, but company executives have said that numerous cargo airlines are interested in it. Meanwhile, Boeing is considering a cargo version of its next-generation 777X but has not yet made a decision. In the short term, it needs to certify passenger versions of the 777X first. As a result, Airbus may gain a significant advantage over Boeing in selling next-generation cargo planes to customers for whom low fuel costs and emissions reductions are paramount. This would prevent Boeing from repeating its current dominance of the freighter market after 2025. Boeing's estimate of 890 new freighters over the next 20 years implies an average of less than 45 deliveries per year. If Airbus can capture nearly half of the market, Boeing's annual cargo aircraft deliveries could drop to 25 units by the end of the 2020s, well below recent levels. The shrinking freighter business makes a resurgence in demand for widebody passenger jets even more important to Boeing's turnaround prospects.
NYSE:BAShort
by FOREXN1
9
Boeing | Fundamental Analysis | Short scenario info update.Boeing has started to regain order momentum in 2021 after two crises - the 737 MAX flight ban and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first eight months of this year, the aerospace giant received 315 net orders for commercial aircraft. That is a welcome change after two years of negative net orders. However, Boeing continues to fight hard to produce aircraft reliably and pass them on to customers. That will cause the company to continue to squander cash and could jeopardize its future recovery. Boeing received 53 gross orders in August. Leading the way was the 737 MAX, with 35 orders from several customers, including Alaska Air and United Airlines. Boeing also recorded 11 orders for the 777 freighter - mostly from unspecified customers - and seven orders for the 787-9 Dreamliner (also from unspecified customers). Net of cancellations and other adjustments, Boeing recorded 45 net orders in August. This increased orders to 4,164 commercial jets. By comparison, Airbus attracted 99 net orders last month. While Boeing still leads in orders for 2021, Airbus has many more orders in its portfolio, nearly 7,000 as of Aug. 31. Airbus' significant order lead - especially in the narrow-body market - is a concern for Boeing. But Boeing's inability to deliver aircraft in large volumes is a much more pressing problem. Last month, the company delivered just 22 commercial jets, compared to Airbus' 40. Similarly, in the first eight months of 2021, Boeing delivered 206 aircraft, while Airbus delivered 384. The 787 Dreamliner series has been a notable upset in this regard. Boeing delivered just 14 787s in 2021, all from March through June. Just two years ago, the company was building and delivering 14 787s each month. Over the past year, Boeing has identified several types of manufacturing defects affecting some Dreamliner aircraft. So far, the company has been unable to agree with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on a method of inspecting previously built 787s to make sure they are free of defects, which led to the latest supply halt. More than 100 787s are currently stuck in the company's warehouses. According to The Wall Street Journal, Boeing won't be able to resume deliveries until at least the end of October. The longer the delivery pause lasts, the greater the risk of triggering contract provisions that would allow customers to cancel orders without penalty. Given how slowly the demand for long-haul aircraft is recovering, many will not hesitate to take this chance. Boeing's progress in eliminating the 737 MAX inventory is also disappointing. The company had about 425 737 MAXs in inventory at the beginning of the year, and in the first half of 2021, that number was down by only 35. With 22 additional 737 MAX deliveries in July and just 14 in August, Boeing made little progress in reducing 737 MAX inventory this quarter. In the near term, Boeing's slow pace of aircraft deliveries will hurt cash flow. (Airlines typically pay most of the purchase price of an airplane after it is delivered.) Last quarter, Boeing delivered 79 commercial airplanes and drained $705 million in cash. Given that aircraft deliveries will reach the same level in the third quarter -- and with a weaker product mix -- Boeing will again be rapidly burning through cash. In addition, the excruciatingly slow pace of shipments of the 737 MAX calls into question underlying demand for the model. Airbus has had no problem turning over significantly more A320neo family aircraft to customers this year, despite the pandemic. Looking ahead, the 787 production problems will make Boeing's recovery more difficult. Boeing has already begun cutting production of the 787 family from 14 to 10 planes a month in 2020. With only 428 direct Dreamliner orders left, of which more than 100 have already been built, even a production rate of 10 months will be difficult to maintain in the near term (unless there is a surge in orders). If customers start to exercise the right to cancel orders, Boeing could be forced to keep production well below ten aircraft per month for the foreseeable future. It will undoubtedly limit future profits and cash flow.
NYSE:BAShort
by FOREXN1
10
BOEING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION |SHORT VIEW 🔔After a significant portion of commercial airplane orders faded in 2019 and 2020, Boeing began to rebuild its production backlog in 2021. The aircraft producer has reported positive net orders for six straight months. The company will likely prolong that sequence to seven months when it announces its August order activity next week. However, compared to Airbus, Boeing's order book still looks pale due to the A320neo family's advantage over the 737 MAX. This week, Airbus received an important order from Jet2.com, an old-time BA client, a British travel airline. This setback underscores the fact that the U.S. aerospace giant is still struggling. In recent years, Airbus has persistently kept an advantage over Boeing in terms of orders, especially in the narrow-body segment. But the gap widened when Airbus bought a majority stake in the CSeries aircraft program - now known as the A220 - in 2018, and widened productively after the Boeing 737 MAX was banned from flying two years ago. As of the end of 2015, Boeing had 4,392 firm orders for the 737 family, while Airbus had 5,535 direct orders for the rival A320 family. This gave Airbus a 56% share of orders for narrow-body aircraft between the two leading aircraft manufacturers, a substantial benefit but merely an authoritative position. Two years later, Airbus' share has risen to 57%. But by the end of July this year, orders for Boeing's narrow-body aircraft had dropped to 3,314, largely because a string of orders for the 737 MAX had faded over the past couple of years. Meantime, Airbus ended the month with 6,100 firm orders for narrow-body aircraft, with the A320neo family accounting for more than 90% of that portfolio. That brings Airbus' share of orders for the two competitors' narrow-body aircraft to 65%. For most of its history, Jet2.com has operated exclusively Boeing aircraft. Today it has about 90 aircraft in its fleet, almost all of them Boeing 737s. Last year, however, Jet2 tried leasing an A321. Apparently, the leisure-oriented airline liked what it saw. On Tuesday, Jet2 and Airbus announced that the airline had placed a direct order for 36 A321neos with options for 24 more. That proved initial Reuters reports that Jet2 was on the verge of switching to Airbus. Jet2 said the planes would be delivered within five years, through 2028. Airbus probably offered big discounts to poach Jet2 from Boeing. However, the A321neo's superior capabilities over the 737 MAX 9 and 737 MAX 10 gave it the opportunity to win this business. Jet2 will equip its A321neo with 232 seats, slightly more than the 737 MAX 10's maximum capacity of 230. In addition, the A321neo can operate from shorter runways than the 737 MAX 9 or 737 MAX 10, giving Jet2 more operational flexibility. Jet2's decision to replace dozens of Boeing aircraft with the A321neo shows that Airbus continues to hold the advantage in this rivalry. Of course, Boeing still has a solid backlog for the 737 MAX and continues to receive new orders from several key customers. On the other hand, Boeing will need to significantly increase order volume to support a sustained return to peak production rates. Furthermore, heavy reliance on a few customers has its drawbacks. First of all, large customers tend to accept the biggest discounts, which affects margins. There is no doubt that Airbus is not going to make life easy for Boeing. The European aircraft manufacturer plans to increase production of the A320neo family to a record high by mid-2023, with a subsequent increase in production through 2025. It will open up additional slots for deliveries, preventing Boeing from getting default orders as a result of Airbus' larger backlog. The 737 family of aircraft has been a real financial trough for Boeing in the past. The huge global oversupply in the widebody market will make the 737 MAX even more important in the near term. Unfortunately, over the next decade, Boeing will likely have to build the 737 MAX at a slower pace and at lower margins than investors anticipated just several years ago. As a result, Boeing stock will be grounded for some time.
NYSE:BAShort
by FOREXN1
4
BOEING PREPARING TO DUMP? OCT TABOEING is down over 50% from it's highs back at the start of the year. Will BA have enough strength to hold through or will it lead the market down another hole... ~ The stock currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $153 but before we play this one we need confirmation. Watching the orange trend line as support/resistance, it holds strong on the weekly timeframe. Possible long on a break and hold of resistance @ $190. Upside targets: $234 Possible Short Entry pn break and hold below $153 Caution needed with this stock as it continues its push up. Seems like it's due for a correction in a few months. DotcomJack | Michael Jordan of Stonks
NYSE:BA
by DotcomJack
1