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USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BOJ RATE BRINGS USDJPY TO 145 LONG TERM The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming interest rate decision could be a pivotal moment for the USD/JPY currency pair, potentially driving it down to the 145 level. Here's why: Narrowing Interest Rate Differential: If the BoJ decides to raise interest rates or signals an intent to do so in the near future, this would narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. The U.S. has been maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's negative or near-zero rates. A reduction in this gap would make holding Japanese Yen (JPY) relatively more attractive, thus strengthening the JPY against the USD. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Markets often react to expectations before they react to actual news. If there's a growing consensus or speculation that the BoJ might tighten policy, traders might preemptively adjust their portfolios, leading to a stronger JPY. Recent posts on X have hinted at expectations of BoJ rate hikes, which could fuel this sentiment. Technical Analysis Indicators: From a technical standpoint, if the BoJ surprises with hawkish comments or actions, this could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY. The pair has been hovering around key resistance levels, and a policy shift might push it below significant support levels, potentially aiming for 145. Technical analyses often look for signs of a break below current supports, which could be catalyzed by a BoJ decision. Global Economic Conditions: The global economic landscape, including U.S. economic data like employment figures, inflation rates, and Fed policy, will also play a role. If U.S. data suggests a softening economy or if the Fed signals rate cuts, this would weaken the USD against other currencies, including the JPY. Conversely, a dovish BoJ might not lead to as significant a drop, but the current market sentiment seems to be banking on at least some tightening from Japan. Psychological Levels and Market Dynamics: The 145 mark could act as a psychological level for traders, where large volumes of trading might occur due to this round figure. If the BoJ's actions or statements align with market expectations of a policy shift, this could accelerate the move towards this level, especially if there's already momentum in that direction.
Short
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
What’s Flowing: USD/JPY AnalysisKey Observations: 1. Price Action: • USD/JPY has bounced from 148.65, showing signs of short-term recovery. However, the overall structure remains bearish with descending resistance levels near 150.30-150.50. 2. Technical Indicators: • Moving averages suggest further downside pressure. • Ichimoku cloud analysis highlights resistance in the 149.50-150.30 zone, making it a critical area for sellers. 3. Market Sentiment: • Seasonal trends show a weakening dollar towards year-end, aligning with current selling pressure. • Reuters and Dow Jones reports emphasize geopolitical influences and Japan’s policy stability driving yen strength. 4. News Highlights: • Massive $1.4 billion option expiry today, with strikes at 147, 148, and 150, could add volatility. • Recent headlines note importer buying interest near 146.50, setting up potential support levels. 5. Support and Resistance: • Immediate support: 146.28 and 145.00. • Resistance: 149.50, followed by the psychological 150.30 level. Trade Insights: • Bias: Short-term pullbacks may provide opportunities for selling rallies. • Risk Management: Stop-loss near 150.50 for short trades. Profit targets near 146.50 and 145.00. This week’s flow will likely hinge on U.S. economic data releases and further commentary from Japan’s BOJ. Be cautious of mid-week reversals.
Short
by moneymagnateash
BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate hike, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.03, up 0.26% on the day. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hinting about a rate hike and gave what was perhaps his strongest hint on Friday. In a newspaper interview, Ueda said that interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track”. Ueda also added that the BoJ has a “big question mark” over the outlook for US economic policy, with Donald Trump taking office next month. Ueda reiterated that the central bank wants to see a sustainable rise by inflation to the 2% target and expressed concern about the weak yen, warning the BoJ could respond with “countermeasures”. The BoJ makes its next rate announcement on Dec.19. Will it raise rates at that meeting or wait until January? The BoJ has done a poor job of communicating its intentions and after the surprise BoJ rate hike in August triggered turmoil in the financial markets. Ueda’s comments may have been an attempt to show greater transparency, although he failed to mention a timeline for the next rate hike. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike by January, with the probability of a December hike at around 60%. In the US, it’s a busy data calendar, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later today, with a market estimate of 47.5 for November, compared to 46.5 in October. Manufacturing has been in a prolonged recession, with only one month of growth over the past two years. USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.30 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 151.13 There is support at 148.89 and 148.06
by OANDA
Yen soars as Japan’s core inflation jumpsThe Japanese yen has surged higher on Friday after a strong inflation release. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.19, down 0.87% on the day. Earlier, the yen has broken below the symbolic 150 level for the first time since Oct. 21. Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 2.2% in November, above market expectations of 2.1% and above the October gain of 1.8%. Tokyo CPI jumped 2.6% in November, blowing past the October reading of 1.8% and the forecast of 1.9%. The robust inflation data has sent the yen sharply higher as expectations for a December rate hike have climbed. The markets still aren’t sure which way the wind is blowing and have priced a December cut at around 60%. The Bank of Japan won’t win any points for transparency about its rate plans but the BoJ has hinted that its plans to continue raising rates and moving towards normalization. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines next month, it is expected to trim rates in early 2025. The BoJ has more on its mind than inflation when it comes to rate policy. The yen has been on a miserable slide since early October, although it has shown some strength this week. The BoJ is under pressure to raise rates in order to support the yen, although a quarter-point rate may not provide much of a boost. If the yen continues to lose ground and moves back towards the 155-160 level, we can expect the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ to warn about a possible currency intervention. This would be a last resort but Tokyo has carried through with interventions when it felt the yen was depreciating too quickly. USD/JPY has pushed below several support lines today. Currently, there is weak support at 149.89, followed closely by 149.63 152.05 and 152.54 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBPJPY - Yen will continue to grow?!The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If it continues to move towards the demand zones, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. The upward correction of this currency pair towards the supply zone will provide us with the next selling position. Higher inflation in Tokyo has increased the likelihood of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in its December meeting. The Cabinet Office of Japan released its September economic report, maintaining its overall assessment of the country’s economic condition. According to the report, Japan’s economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. The report also highlighted an improvement in bankruptcy conditions, marking the first positive trend in this area in 42 months. This improvement reflects greater stability within Japan’s business sector. Furthermore, the report noted a slowdown in the rise of corporate product prices, which could lead to a more balanced market. The Cabinet Office emphasized the need to closely monitor U.S. economic policies, as shifts in these policies could significantly impact Japan’s economy. Analysts at JP Morgan predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates twice in 2025, in April and October, bringing its policy rate to 1.0% by the end of the year. Additionally, they forecast two further rate hikes in 2026, pushing rates to 1.5%. JP Morgan noted that the Bank of Japan’s independent monetary policies could result in weaker performance for Japanese yields compared to other developed markets. Meanwhile, the Japan Manufacturing Workers Union, representing small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, has demanded a minimum base wage increase of 15,000 yen in next year’s wage negotiations. This request exceeds last year’s demand by at least 3,000 yen and marks the highest wage increase proposed in the union’s history. The ultimate goal is to achieve an overall wage increase exceeding 19,500 yen. This development could be seen as positive news for Japan’s government and central bank, as rising wages might indicate mounting inflationary pressures, supporting the normalization of monetary policies. Tamaki, a member of Japan’s Democratic Party for the People (DPP), stated that the Bank of Japan should evaluate its policies based on wage outcomes for small businesses. He warned that excessive tightening of monetary policy could risk a return to deflation. Tamaki stressed the importance of not rushing changes in monetary and fiscal policies. In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a £26 billion ($33 billion) business tax hike that could result in the loss of up to 130,000 jobs. If employers pass this financial burden onto the workforce by reducing employment, the unemployment rate could increase by 0.4%. The analysis also suggests that businesses might respond to higher employer national insurance contributions by cutting working hours or staff. Separately, the Bank of England recently reported results from its latest stress tests, indicating that all major UK financial institutions are resilient enough to withstand worst-case economic scenarios. While the results have not raised specific concerns, the Bank emphasized its commitment to ongoing close monitoring of the situation.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Yen rally fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI expected to riseThe Japanese yen is lower on Thursday, after climbing 2.4% over the past two trading sessions. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.83, up 0.57% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI. In the US, the financial markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no US events. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released on Friday. The market estimate for November stands at 2.1% y/y, following a 1.8% gain in October, which was the lowest level since April. The headline rate is expected to rise from 1.8% to 1.9%. October inflation numbers have been mixed. The Bank of Japan Core CPI index surprised on the downside with a 1.5% gain, down from 1.7% in September. However, services inflation inched up to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in September and above the forecast of 2.5%. If the Tokyo inflation release accelerates as expected, it will likely raise expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the Dec. 19 meeting. Inflation isn’t the only item on the minds of BoJ policymakers. There is significant political uncertainty both at home and abroad. Prime Minister Ishiba lost his majority in parliament in the October election and needs opposition support to pass a supplementary budget. In the US, President-elect Trump is threatening to slap tariffs on its trading partners, which could have massive negative implications for Japan’s auto industry, a key sector of the economy. On Wednesday, US GDP (second estimate) confirmed the initial estimate gain of 2.8% for the third quarter. This indicates solid economic growth, which has been helped by strong consumer spending. The worries about a recession have subsided and the Fed has signaled that it plans to gradually continue trimming interest rates. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.60. Above, there is resistance at 152.75 149.97 and 148.82 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range. Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures. The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%. Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending. BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks: Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry. Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Japanese yen declines on BoJ’s Ueda cautious remarksThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.08, up 0.51% on the day. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sent mixed signals about a rate hike in December, leaving investors unclear and sending the yen lower against the US dollar. Ueda said that the timing of a rate hike depended on economic conditions. He noted that there was progress towards sustained inflation from higher wages and consumption, but warned that there were “numerous uncertainties” that the Bank would have to monitor, such as the impact of President-elect Trump’s economic policies. Ueda said that the central bank wouldn’t wait for all uncertainties to clear up before a hike and that the timing would depend on the “economic, price and financial outlook”. The lack of clarity from Ueda wasn’t all that surprising as the BoJ is not transparent with its rate plans, which results in strong volatility whenever the BoJ makes a rate move. Ueda’s comments didn’t change market expectations, as the pricing of a rate hike in December is around 55%. A strong rise in inflation or a significant decline in the yen would support a rate hike at the December meeting. The week ended on a positive note as US retail sales were better than expected in October. Retail sales rose 0.4% m/m, better than the market estimate of 0.3% and the September reading was revised from 0.4% to 0.8%. Annually, retail sales posted a strong gain of 2.8%, up from an upwardly revised gain of 1% in September and blowing past the forecast of 1.9%. The strong data for September and October has lowered the odds of a rate cut in December, which are currently around 60%. On Thursday, prior to the retail sales report, Fed Chair Powell said that “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 156.07. The next resistance line is 157.86 154.97 and 153.18 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Japan GDP beats forecast, yen ends skidThe Japanese yen is in positive territory today, putting the brakes on a four-day skid. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.54 down 0.45% on the day. Japan’s economy expanded by 0.9% in the third quarter, below the revised 2.2% gain in Q2 but above the market estimate of 0.7%. Quarterly, GDP rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.5% gain in Q2 and matching expectations. The GDP numbers were not sparkling but point to a second straight quarter of growth. August economic activity was dampened due to a “megaquake” alert and a fierce typhoon which caused widespread destruction and disruption. Private consumption, which comprises more than half of the country’s GDP showed strong growth of 3.6% y/y, despite the weather issues. This is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation rise to demand and consumption. The BoJ has been vague about the timing of a rate hike but the markets are looking at December or January as likely dates. The yen has been wobbly and is down 2.3% in November. If the yen’s downswing continues, the BoJ could decide to hike rates at the Dec. 19 meeting. There is also the possibility of the Ministry of Finance intervening in the currency markets if the yen declines sharply. The US wraps up the week with retail sales for October, with a market estimate of 1.9%. Retails sales eased to 1.7% y/y in September, which was an 8-month low. Monthly, retail sales are expected to inch up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consumer spending has been generally strong and consumer confidence should improve now that the uncertainty over the US election is over. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 1.5601 and is testing 1.5560. The next support line is 1.5493 1.5668 and 1.5709 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the correction continues to the support range, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Breaking the resistance range will pave the way for this currency pair to continue its rise. Pension Reforms in the UK • Consolidation of Local Government Pension Schemes: Rachel Reeves, the UK Treasury Secretary, aims to merge local government pension schemes into larger funds (megafunds). This initiative involves pooling the assets of 86 local government pension schemes into a large fund managed by professional investment managers. • Objective: To increase investment in long-term, high-risk assets, reduce management costs, and strengthen investment in infrastructure and local areas. • Further Reforms: In addition, Reeves plans to make changes to financial arbitration services and the combined stock market, marking “the most significant pension reforms in decades.” Inflation Outlook and Interest Rates in the UK • Comments from Bank of England Member, Mann: Bank of England member, Mann, warned that substantial volatility in macroeconomic indicators will be seen in the coming years. He suggests that inflation may remain high for an extended period, necessitating a higher neutral rate. Additionally, he noted that lower interest rates compared to high inflation would put more pressure on investments. Japan’s Support Package and Economic Stimulus • Budget and Household Support: The Japanese government has planned a supplementary budget of 13.5 trillion yen (87 billion USD) to fund an economic stimulus package. This budget includes a payment of 30,000 yen to low-income households and 20,000 yen per child in households with children. • Energy Subsidies: The government will also reintroduce electricity and gas subsidies from January for three months to help households cope with rising fuel and service costs. Financial Risks and Supervision by the Bank of Japan • Concerns About Non-Bank Financial Institutions: The Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor, Uchida, warned that increased connections between non-bank financial institutions and banks could pose risks to the entire financial system. He emphasized that non-bank institutions handle almost half of global financial intermediation, which requires close attention. Actions for Stability in Japan’s Currency Market • Currency Market Intervention: Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated that appropriate measures will be taken to control severe and one-sided fluctuations in the currency market if necessary. He stressed the importance of sustainable exchange rate movements in line with fundamental principles.
Long
by Ali_PSND
USD/JPY hit 15-week high, Japan GDP nextThe Japanese is lower for a fourth straight trading day and has declined 2.1% during that time. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.85 up 0.25% on the day. The markets are braced for a sharp slowdown in third-quarter GDP, which will be released early Friday. The market estimate stands at 0.7% y/y, compared to a revised 3.1% in the second quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to ease to 0.2%, following a revised 0.7% gain in Q2. The strong GDP numbers in the second quarter reflected wage negotiations in the spring which resulted in sharp wage increases and a recovery in the auto industry. The BoJ meets next on Dec. 19 and key data such as the GDP release and inflation will be important factors ahead of the meeting. As well, wages have been rising which could translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in October to 2.4% y/y, up from a revised 1.9% gain in September. The core rate also rose to 3.1% from a revised 2.9% in September. The increase in PPI comes on the heels of consumer inflation (CPI) which rose from 2.4% y/y to 2.6%. The core rate remained unchanged at 3.3%. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its plans due to the rise in inflation, which had decelerated for six straight months. The path of inflation can be bumpy and Fed policymakers won’t be losing sleep over a single monthly increase. If inflation accelerates next month, however, there will be some concern and we could hear calls for an oversized half-point cut in December. USD is testing resistance at 155.95. Above, there is resistance at 1.5643 There is support at 155.15 and 154.67
by OANDA
USDJPY - Will the yen continue to weaken?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. John Thune, the senator from South Dakota, has been elected as the Republican Senate Majority Leader. This election received broad support from Trump-aligned Republicans, though some factions within the GOP, particularly the far-right, were less welcoming of the choice. In this race, Thune faced competition from John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, although Scott was not seen as a significant threat. Thune ultimately won in a direct, closed-ballot vote against Cornyn, securing the Senate leadership position. Moody’s has announced that financial risks concerning the United States’ fiscal strength have escalated. In a statement, Moody’s highlighted the outlook on U.S. national debt, identifying the “decisive victory of Republicans” as a specific risk factor. Moody’s stated, “In the absence of policy measures to curb the budget deficit, federal fiscal strength will deteriorate, increasingly impacting the U.S. sovereign credit profile.” Given the fiscal policies promised by Trump during his election campaign—and the high likelihood of their passage due to the shift in Congress—U.S. fiscal strength-related risks have increased. While Trump’s victory has been seen as positive for certain risk assets, it has had negative implications for bonds. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that Japan is not currently in need of extensive financial support, allowing the central bank to resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess U.S. economic developments. Another Bank of Japan member warned that raising rates could cause market shocks, disrupting the normalization path of Japan’s monetary policies, as the divergence in policy directions between the U.S. and Japan could heighten foreign exchange market volatility. Additionally, one member emphasized the need to be prepared for potential market fluctuations due to the U.S. presidential election results.
Long
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD slips to 7-month low on weak eurozone confidence dataThe euro can’t seem to find its footing. EUR/USD is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 0.38% on Wednesday, trading at 1.0608 at the time of writing. Earlier today, the euro dropped as low as 1.0606, its lowest level since April 15. The US dollar rose after Donald Trump’s decisive election win, and the dollar is getting a boost as the Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. This would give the Republicans control of the House and the Senate and would make it easier for Trump to push through his agenda. The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index fell in November to 12.5, down sharply from 20.1 in October and well short of the market estimate of 20.5. It was a similar story for the German ZEW release, which fell from 13.1 to 7.4, shy of the consensus of 13. Investors and analysts are pessimistic about the economic outlook for two reasons. First, the Trump victory could signal new tariffs on European products and even trigger a trade war, the last thing the weak eurozone economy can afford. The second concern is the collapse of the German government coalition, with a snap election called for Feb. 23. The European Central Bank meets next month and has signaled another reduction. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that a December cut is likely. The markets have priced in a reduction of 35 basis points in December, suggesting that traders are split on whether the ECB will opt for a cut of 25 or 50 basis points. There are differing opinions among the Governing Council members and we’re likely to see these opposing views aired in the coming weeks. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0614 earlier Below, there is support at 1.0572 There is resistance at 1.0671 and 1.0713
by OANDA
USD/JPY surges as Trump storms to victoryThe US dollar is on a tear against the major currencies after Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in the US presidential election. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.62, up a massive 2.0% on the day. There are still plenty of votes to count in the US election but it looking increasingly likely that Republican Donald Trump has been re-elected as President. Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris were in a dead heat going into the election on Tuesday and there was concern that declaring a winner could take days or even weeks, which would have led to prolonged uncertainty. In what was a huge surprise to both sides, Trump cruised to victory. The win is even sweeter for the Republicans as they likely have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With the Republicans in charge, Trump’s agenda will be easier to push through Congress. It should be noted that at the time of writing, the vote count is incomplete and Harris has not conceded defeat. The US dollar has responded to the Trump win with sharp gains and the yen is in full retreat. Trump’s threats to slap stiff tariffs on China, Europe and Mexico would support the dollar, as tariffs would raise inflation and interest rates. If Trump’s policies lead to trade wars, market sentiment will fall, further boosting the dollar. The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its September meeting today. At the meeting, the BoJ kept rates at 0.25% and Governor Ueda said that BoJ would not rush to raise rates during market volatility. Those comments were a response to a stock market slide after weak US employment reports raised fears that the US economy was deteriorating much more quickly than expected. Those fears were unfounded and the markets don’t expect a BoJ rate hike before early 2025, although if the weak yen takes a dive, it could accelerate plans to raise rates. USD/JPY has pushed past resistance at 151.86, 152.87 and 153.84. The next resistance line is 153.95 150.78 and 149.77 are providing support
by OANDA
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 0.25% October/2024 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and matching market estimates. Thursday's decision came amid shifting political lansdscape following Japan's election and ahead of the US presidential election. In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ held its forecast that core inflation to reach 2.5% in FY 2024, with inflation expected to be around 1.9% for both FY 2025 and FY 2026. Regarding the GDP, the central bank retained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.1% for FY 2025 and 1.0% for FY 2026.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
The yen falls to a three-month low amid political uncertainty in Japan's ruling party has faced a devastating defeat in the general election, leading to a surge of political uncertainty that has driven the yen to its lowest in three months. If PM Ishiba resigns and is succeeded by the dovish Sanae Takaichi as president of the Liberal Democratic Party, concerns about the BoJ's plan to raise interest rates will intensify. This scenario will signal that Japan may be losing its political and policy-stable status, resulting in a long-term stalemate in the Japanese stock market. USDJPY sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel, finding support around 153.00. The gap between both EMAs widens, sending out a bullish signal. If USDJPY breaches the resistance at 154.00 and then crosses the ascending channel’s upper bound, the price may continue its uptrend toward 157.80. Conversely, if USDJPY breaks EMA21 and the channel's lower bound, the price could fall further to the support at 150.80, where EMA78 coincides.
by inkicho_exness
Yen slips to 3-month low after Japanese electionThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.63, up 0.22% at the time of writing. The yen weakened as far as 153.88 but has pared most of the losses. The new trading week has barely begun but the markets are busy digesting the drama out of Tokyo. The snap parliamentary election over the weekend was a disaster for new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as his Liberal Democratic Party (LPD) coalition won just 215 seats, short of the 233 majority. Ishiba has been in power for only a month and the snap election backfired as the LDP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2009. It’s unclear if Ishiba will be able to cobble together a majority and the political uncertainly could push the yen, which is trading at 3-month lows, even lower. The election bombshell comes just ahead of the Bank of Japan’s on Oct. 31. The BoJ is expected to maintain policy settings and will release updated growth and inflation forecasts. The BoJ has intervened in the past when the yen showed a sharp and quick decline and there is speculation that the central bank might intervene if the yen falls to 155 or 160 per dollar. The US wrapped up the week with mixed results. Durable Goods Orders declined 0.8% in September, unchanged from a revised -0.8% reading in August and above the market estimate of -1%. The UoM Consumer Sentiment index improved slightly to 70.5 in October, above 70.1 in September, beating the market estimate of 69.0. USD/JPY continues to push through resistance lines. The next resistance line is 153.94 152.03 and 151.68 are providing support
by OANDA
Tokyo Core CPI complicates BoJ’s rate plansThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.09%. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of inflation trends in Japan, fell to 1.8% y/y in October, down from 2% in September and just above the market estimate of 1.7%. This marked a second straight deceleration and was the lowest level since April. A key service inflation indicator also slowed in October, dropping from 2.7% to 2.6%, a four-month low. The decline in inflation is a disappointment for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation remain sustainable around its 2% target before its raises interest rates on the path towards normalization. The BoJ meets next week and is expected to maintain rates. The central bank will release growth and inflation forecasts which could provide insights into future monetary policy. The cautious BoJ is unlikely to raise rates until early next unless inflation reverses its current downtrend and pushes higher. The US wraps up the week with core durable goods orders and UoM consumer sentiment. The manufacturing sector has contracted for four straight months and core durable goods orders are expected to fall 1% in September, after no change in August. The UoM consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 68.9 in October, compared to 70.1 a month earlier. Consumers are unhappy about high inflation and there is uncertainty over the US election, with an extremely tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.5207. The next resistance line is 152.58 151.30 and 150.79 are providing support
by OANDA
Yen slides as IMF cuts Japan’s growth estimateThe Japanese yen has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.67, up 1.06% at the time of writing. The yen is down 2.1% this week and has plunged 6.3% in October. The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to just 0.3%, down sharply from the 0.7% forecast in June. This is the lowest estimate since 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic which severely impacted the economy. The IMF highlighted the “fading of a one-off boost” in tourism and disruptions in auto supply chains. Japan’s economy grew 1.7% in 2023, aided by a strong increase in tourism. The IMF said it expects the economy to rebound in 2025 and expand 1.1% as private consumption and wage growth improve, assuming that the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates “toward a neutral setting of about 1.5%.” The BoJ raised interest rates out of negative territory in July to the current rate of 0.25%. The markets are expecting further hikes but the central bank has been very cautious and wants to see evidence of sustainable inflation at 2% before making additional hikes. This has made the BoJ an outlier among major central banks, most of which are in a rate-cutting cycle in response to falling inflation. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, on Thursday. The indicator is expected to ease to 1.7% in September, down from 2% in August. The BoJ meets on Oct. 30-31, right after a general election on Oct. 27. The Bank will likely maintain policy settings but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the quarterly projections for inflation and growth. USD/JPY has pushed above several resistance lines today and the next resistance line is 153.19 150.93 and 150.66 are providing support
by OANDA