The "unlocking" of 150 for USDJPYSequences and corrections illustrating waves
for those who are not holding any live positions from below the long-term swing is becoming increasingly expensive, invalidation is clearly defined below the 'B' at 101.4x, while taking October 2018 highs 'D' should be enough to "trip the fuse" and trigger momentum towards 125 and 149.3x
a multi-decade ABC corrective pattern is at stake; this 'C' is a pragmatic demonstration of the lust to expand with a typical 5-3-5 sequence.
Buyers had the move and played an exchange with the trap, which despite the length of the combination via covid in 2020, can be expressed in no other terms than; Buyers aiming to setup the ideal position (the cheapest tickets against sellers in an isolated ABC corrective sequence - see 2020 Macro Map ). I managed to carry out the deeply laid trap, (although Fed did refute a number of times) since Powell was finally handicapped via Jackson this week, I thought perhaps it is time for an update of my chart. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise swing for the "ABC" is more clearly illustrated than in what follows.
This have proceeded as expected so far; Japanisation was already in play and the key idea was Yen dislocation. That has happened up till now and was done solely via risk however with the monetary side entering into play and tapering starting in most likely November, the path has been cleared for the king (dollhair) to receive inflows.
Boj
USDJPY Market Commentary 12.08.2021A clean and simple setup forming inside the 110 handle here. Eyeballing a leg lower towards 109.2x with Yields leading.
This is the 4th attempt from bulls to reclaim the 110 handle and take out 111 stops since July. The LT outlook is Strong Buy as depicted in the chart below, but the ST trend is telling us a very different picture, that we are not quite ready to complete the breakup yet.
Expecting more ping-pong play within the range here, a test of will be more than happy with 109.2x, extensions below are possible but with JPY in structural decline, unlikely in my view.
From a flows perspective, a break would be a weak move, though it involves a sharp threat of 111 then 115. The error is that buyers are over-extended and in the height of summer, it would have been much better doing something like protecting 108 and building a floor, on the other hand, sellers ready to march. 110 should be lost.
GBPJPY 1H Drop IncomingGBPJPY showed sharp gains on Mondays Asian and European sessions with the pair rising from a bearish 151.500 to 153.750 at its peak, looking primed to continue back towards the 155 mark which the bulls have been pressuring and sustaining since late May. Coming into todays European session, the currencies volatility had worn off and the pair has been stuttering early this morning in the mid 153 range, this could be the bulls taking a breaking on the resurgence ready to make a move towards the day end, however the more likely situation is that the bulls are exhausted and so is the sterling. After posting great gains over the past few months the sterling has gone from strength to strength, no worse the Yen which has also showed remarkable strength and gains. The Former however is struggling to maintain this momentum and the pound has been slipping its grasp in the mid 155 range for a few weeks now. This could be down to the how well the Yen has performed but the pound's ground beneath its feet is slipping with Boris Johnson's delay of lockdown easing and the 'Delta variant' supposedly creating a whole new problem for the UK and its plans to get the economy back on track. With the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes kicking off in the next asian session, we can comfortable predict how the Yen will react after seeing its response to previous BoJ announcements. This will push the Yen higher and ultimately leave the GBPJPY pair looking negative. The sterling has no key fundamental economic releases on the calendar till tomorrow which leaves the stage all set for the Yen in the next Asian session. This enforces my view on the pair slipping back down to the 152 ranges until the Pound takes centre stage tomorrow afternoon where we can see some volatility.
On the Technical analysis side of things, we can see the trend angle of yesterdays resurgence as unsustainable as the pair has slipped so much and pops upwards too sharply to allow any support to be built beneath. It was met with resistance at 153.500 to 153.700 and is struggling to break its barrier. It's since slipped to 153.300 today and isn't showing strong enough signs of breaking the resistance. It may form some degree of support here but there's not enough data to show the pair will as its too short of the Mid may support level of 153.300. The pair has also dropped beneath the SMMA showing further signs of a drop incoming.
I expect a drop to 152.500 and I'll check back in on the pair then to see how sterling and yen are fairing most likely after tonights Asian session. We may have another opportunity to catch the fall back down to the support of 151.400 but theres not enough signs for me personally that the pair can't rebound at 152 and head back upwards.
I look forward to seeing how this one plays out.
USDJPY BUY signal. After BOJ Meetingthe currency pair afyAfter the publication of the statement on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, the currency pair hit local targets with a small impulse and stopped there.
the stop occurred at a strong support level:
1.psychological level 110.00
2.test of the line of control of the upward movement
3. retest of local highs of the previous trading session.
We buy))))
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By the way, I'm already in a deal.
BoJ meeting in focus as yen driftsThe Japanese yen continues to drift. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.20, down 0.13% on the day.
It was a quiet week for the yen, which recorded small losses after three weekly gains. The yen has enjoyed an excellent month of April, rising 2.6% against a struggling US dollar. Last week, the yen touched a low of 107.47, its lowest level since March 4th.
The Bank of Japan holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday (3:00 GMT). The BoJ is unlikely to make any changes to current policy. At the last meeting, the BoJ clarified that its yield curve control allows for 10-year government bonds to trade at 25 basis points on either side of zero. The bank also reduced the frequency of its bond purchases, but that is a recalibration rather than a taper of its QE programme.
Perhaps more important for the market is the fact that the central bank appears more optimistic about Japan's economic conditions. In January, the BoJ revised upwards its growth forecast, from 3.6% to 3.9% for the fiscal year 2021. The bank will publish its quarterly Outlook Report together with the rate statement, which should provide insights as to the bank's view of Japan's economy.
Japan's Retail Sales for March (YoY) could point to renewed economic growth. The consensus for the consumer spending indicator is a strong gain of 4.6%. Retail Sales have declined in the previous three readings, as Covid infection rates remain high and the vaccine rollout has been extremely slow. A strong gain in retail sales would point to a resurgence in consumer spending and would be bullish for the Japanese yen.
USD/JPY has support at 107.29 and 106.71. The pair faces resistance at 108.65 and 109.43
FED and BOJ's Policy Decisions to Jolt the USDJPY The Federal Reserve in the U.S. and the Bank of Japan have their April policy meetings taking place this week, which is likely to boost the underlying volatility currently observed on the USDJPY.
At present, the price action is contained within the boundaries of a Descending Wedge, which is a type of pattern that typically entails the likely continuation of bullish price action (after the price breaks out above the Wedge's upper boundary). It is also interesting to note that the price action is currently consolidating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price action is likely to continue fluctuating between this pivotal support and the upper boundary of the Wedge in the near future before the eventual breakout takes place.
USDJPY buying the dips with 111,70 as a targetHello,
US yields still has a chance to remain the number one topic.
If so, the pair has a chance of continuing their gains towards 111.70, with two targets at the lower levels.
Risk factor: cooling down of market sentiment due to China / Taiwan and Russia / Ukraine + covid
Buying dips toward 108.65 / 60
Stop below 108.34
Target 1: 110.45
Target 2: 110.95
Target 3: 111.70
Good luck
Japanese yen flirting with 109The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.74, down 0.09% on the day.
The Japanese yen remains vulnerable and the symbolic 109 level is under strong pressure. The dollar has had its way with the yen in 2021, as USD/JPY has jumped 5.5% this year. Last week, the pair climbed to 109.36, its highest level since June 2020. The yen is particularly sensitive to rate differentials between the US and Japan, so the increases in US yields are putting strong pressure on the Japanese currency. The 10-year Treasury yield enjoyed another strong week, rising to 1.72% on Friday. Although the 10-year bond has retreated to 1.67% on Monday, the trend remains positive for bonds, which likely spells more trouble for the shaky Japanese yen. This week has more than 100 billion dollars in government bond auctions, which will test the market's appetite for bonds following last week's Fed policy meeting.
In Japan, the equity markets are sharply lower after the BoJ widened its JGB trading band and tweaked its ETF guidance at its policy meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda didn't surprise anyone when he said that monetary easing would continue for a long time. The bank has opted to make some tweaks rather than overhaul its monetary policy, and for this reason the bank's inflation target of 2 percent is likely to remain a bridge too far for the foreseeable future. Later, the bank releases BoJ Core CPI, its preferred inflation gauge (Tuesday, 5:00 GMT).
The market will be again paying close attention to the Federal Reserve this week. Later on Monday, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel and we'll also hear from FOMC members today and on Tuesday. Powell will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen. The topic of Powell's testimony is the CARE Act for Covid relief, but investors will be looking for any comments related to higher bond yields or inflation. Any remarks in this regard from Powell or Yellen could shake up the US dollar.
USD/JPY is currently range-bound. On the downside, the pair is putting pressure on support at 108.55. Close by, there is support at 108.20. There is resistance at 109.30, followed by resistance at 109.70
EUR analysisToday we are considering the possibility of buying EUR, but against JPY.
Here we are in a definite upward trend of the larger periods and the opportunity to enter at the moment is from H1.
In the last few days we have seen a corrective movement that has been broken.
This allows the price to continue to 130.23.
In order to have the strength to continue this movement, the price must not go below the bottom.
If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us!
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Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
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Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Week ahead - Interest Rates, CPI's With the new strain of the Coronavirus causing concern across the world, many countries that continue to battle the Coronavirus hope that the vaccine gives them a head start before the strain does any more damage. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th January US Local time. Here is your week ahead.
All dates are in NZDT.
Monday, 18th January – China's Retail Sales and GDP
It seems like China was on their home run. Cases were initially squashed due to their strict lockdown earlier in 2020. The vaccine's advancement last year was the final factor in cementing China's success against the virus. However, a sharp outbreak in Nangong and Shijiazhuang shows the world that no matter how well your initial response is, only continuous and strict restrictions can keep the Coronavirus out of the community. Five days ago, a plot of land in Nangong, Hebei, laid flat. Now, it has become a 1500 room hospital for Covid-19 patients. This may be an overreaction by the Chinese government – however, they may just be preparing for the worst. This does give a sign of what the future may hold for countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where cases are still at record highs. With that said, GDP and Retail Sales are predicted to increase on the back of a boost in the manufacturing sector alongside consumer spending the income they saved during the past lockdown. GDP is expected to rise to 6.1% in Q4, up from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales are predicted to grow. 5.5% in the month of December, ahead of Chinese Near Year.
Tuesday, 19th January – Germany's CPI figures
The Coronavirus situation in many countries highlights the importance of implementing a strict lockdown and following it through. The benefits of a lockdown only work if community transmission is eliminated. However, many countries apart from a small handful tried to balance economic damage alongside the Coronavirus spread, which meant deescalating Coronavirus restrictions too early, rendering the lockdown useless. Germany is one of the nations that deescalated too quickly, causing massive spikes in their Coronavirus figures. Their total cases now stand at 2.04 Million, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently trying to rush in more stringent restrictions to dampen the virus's spread. However, the recent spike is unlikely to affect analysts' expectation of Germany's CPI,s expected to print at -0.7% for the month of December, the same as a month before.
Wednesday, 20th January – United Kingdom's CPI Figures
With just under 3.6 Million initial doses having been handed out to the UK public, the United Kingdom's dire situation looks like it's starting to make a turnaround. The daily Coronavirus rate has slowly decreased in the past couple of days - however, Britons do not seem to be adhering to lockdown and social distancing rules. The third lockdown in the past 12 months, UK citizens have been seen gathering around beaches with no mask on. The UK government is banking on the vaccine to help control the virus's spread, as hospital beds continue to be filled with Coronavirus patients. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before.
Wednesday 20th January – Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Decision
Canada seems to be avoiding the limelight – however, their Coronavirus cases are continuing to skyrocket after a semi-successful, non-strict lockdown. However, like all countries that did not eliminate community transmission, their cases soared as the latter part of 2020 approached. Coronavirus cases in Canada surpassed 700,000 yesterday, which may well play into their interest rate decision this week ahead. With the second wave all but destroying any optimism in Canada's economic recovery, analysts predict a rate cut of less than 0.25%, currently at 0.25%. Andrew Kelvin, Chief Canada Strategist at TD Securities, stated that "The fact that the Bank of Canada has kept the door open to ( a rate cut) in the recent month hasn't gone unnoticed by markets."
Thursday, 21st and Friday 22nd January – Australia's Employment Change and Retail Sales Month over Month
The news many Australian citizens wanted to hear – "There are no remaining hotspot definitions," Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt stated at a press conference, with only one community transmission in the past couple of days. However, he warned that their not out of the woods yet, stating that "invevitably, there will be days of new cases. There will be days where there may be a requirement for Commonwealth hotspot definition to be reintroduced. But they'll be done on a the basis of that, and cases". This may indicate that Australia is finally able to start its economic recovery – alongside the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic bubble between Australia and New Zealand. Employment Change is expected to decrease from +90,000 in November to +50,000 in December.
Thursday, 21st January – Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision
Similar to Canada, Japan did not implement a proper lockdown. Instead, they opted for an increase in social distancing measures alongside confidence in their citizens to continue to wear face masks. Just like Canada, initial results were promising. However, as the year passed, it was evident that community transmission is inevitable if it was not thoroughly squashed out. Currently, Japan sits on 325,000 Coronavirus cases, with daily cases reaching an all-time high of 8,000 just a couple of days ago. With negative rates in Japan, monetary policy moves to the downside are rare as not to dig a hole the Bank of Japan can not come out of. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. However, analysts at Bloomberg Economics forecast the BoJ to keep rates as is not only this week ahead but for the whole year.
Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and most importantly, stay safe.
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020
What was the point in BOJ meeting overnight? Finally extensions of the handouts coming from the Japanese base, and remarkably the 103.0x was rescued via lack of conviction from macro players to chase it lower. Buyers now can play the break, undoing their opponents work and imagine the test of 105 as being important for the yearly close flows.
This iteration of dollar strength will be most visible in GBPUSD and USDJPY - choppy conditions seem appropriate. Here we are tracking this rather technical move. I am looking firstly for a move towards 105 resistance, followed by a zag to fade back towards 103.5x which is a 300 tick round trip.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EUR/JPY taking the early lead in todays trading session...Before:
Amid a lacklustre open to the trade session EUR/JPY has taken an early lead in development especially within the daily uptrend. As we are seeing a nice break-out continuation, we should see the final leg to the upside relatively soon.
Latest news from this morning:
BoJ Governor Kuroda says they are closely watching FX moves but will not comment on details; no need to think the JPY's rise is having serious effects on the economy.
EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier said there is good progress but the last stumbling blocks remain and that in this final stretch of talks, transparency and unity are important as ever. (Newswires)
EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier reportedly said that a Brexit deal is possible by Friday according to AFP citing sources, while other reports stated that EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier is understood to have told the EU Parliament that a Brexit deal is possible by the weekend but difficult, according to WSJ's Norman. (AFP/WSJ)
EURJPY: Yen on the crossroads, EUR at support, longs in playHello,
the yen weakens with rising yields,
maintained "vaccine" sentiment
EURUSD is technically supported around 1.1760 / 40
USDJPY technically looks good
Looking for so called "double kick"
Buying at/around 123.85 and 123.25
Stop below 122.75
Target 1 126
Target 2 128
Good luck
USDJPY Longs in play with US yields supportHi,
a firm return from below 103.50 thanks to rising yiekds is not complete in our opinion
The combination of 'fast money' and more short squeeze can push price higher towards 107+
Risk factor: yields / market sentiment
Looking to buy on dips towards 105 and 104.4
Stop below 103.60
Target 107.20 / 30
OR
Buy on the break of 105.60 (on the retest)
Stop under 105.20
Target 107.20 / 30
Good Luck
ridethepig | JPY beyond the elections🔸 USDJPY - into the elections
Sellers have the move and already played the exchange towards 100 on the initial covid chapter I. They are aiming for the ideal Yearly closing position (the frontal attack against any laggards). I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan (a serious contender for chart of the year) at the beginning and by not being as familiar as I was with the well-known rules on Tradingview. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise striving of inflation is more clearly illustrated than in the diagram that follows:
Inflation expectations proceed as follows: as dismal Covid data floods the wires => stimulus then becomes a big part of that story
📍 There is no amount of printing that can counter deflation.
As globalisation contracts, it creates a deflationary tsunami on the underlying capital formation. We then have to factor in bottlenecks on the supply side from lockdowns, agricultural shortages and etc which create inflationary pressures.
The key idea is that they can simply clear the way for the Suganomics/Abenomics with a different pair of Calvin Kleins and prevent the breakdown of 100 is truly the only way to save Japan, because the MT and LT outlooks look awful there.
In the more immediate term, the second covid chapter and election protection may keep JPY in demand and lower-time frame rallies will still attract selling interest. Here tracking 105.8x as resistance for another attempt of 104.1x and 100.0x before the king starts its journey. How keenly the speculators are at outguessing the demise of Japan.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
RidetheMacro| USDJPY Outlook 2020.09.19📌the USD/JPY currency pair reached one and a half month lows this week at the middle of the 104th figure. In this price area, the southern momentum has faded and now traders are at crossroads: on the one hand – the weakening greenback which again began to lose its positions and on the other hand – the lack of weighty arguments for continuing the downward movement. The results of the September meeting of the Bank of Japan and the data published today on the growth of Japanese inflation did not provide any clarity as the USD/JPY pair continues to trade against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture.📈
🏦 the BoJ said in its Sept. 17 monetary-policy statement. “The pace of improvement is expected to be only moderate while the impact of COVID-19 🦠 remains worldwide.”
The Japanese economy shrank 7.9% on quarter in Q2 2020, compared with the preliminary reading of a 7.8% decline and market consensus of an 8.1% drop, and after a 0.6% fall in Q1. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption tumbled, falling for the third straight quarter (-7.9% vs -0.7% in Q1)
📍 Any material shift in this regard may be exacerbated by a contraction in global growth, with capital flight into the dollar
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Until next time,
Ride the macro