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ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2020.09.12📍 JPY Buyers are threatening to breakout. After 107 comes 110 and then 112.x. But sellers have other trump cards, for example covid. My impression is as follows: as the dollar firms and finds a temporary floor therefore can be considered a bounce into the elections which can be somewhat double-edged. If the preconditions are met, namely if we get a continuation of Abenomics with the leadership elections, and effective parries into the Yen are restrained, then beginning the advance towards 150 may be justified. But we should consider the development here to be EARLY/OPENING game. In light of this, we should take longs on a leash and if the market starts paying we can add more size. The technical breakout would lead to buyers occupying the flows. Equities may felt even more the heat if we see a paralysing effect via temporary USD inflows. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
Where USDJPY will go?One of the pairs that have been without a clear direction for the longest time is USDJPY. In the chart we see that for the second month we have lower peaks and higher bottoms. This is one of the most famous and reliable figures - a triangle. Such triangles develop at almost all periods. From monthly to 30m. However, if we open the weekly and monthly chart , then there we can see that this is part of a larger triangle. Why do we pay attention to these triangles now? This week will be key! We are expecting news on Wednesday about the Fed's interest rate decision. A few hours later, there is a decision by BoJ. We are also entering a pre-election battle in the USA and the season of JPY movements. Where USDJPY will go will probably become clear this week!
by ForexTrendline
1
ridethepig | NZDJPY Market Commentary 2020.08.15So much for the round of chart updates...@ridethepig has been taking some time off this summer to prepare for a very busy September onwards. 📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much longer? A dovish RBNZ has provided us with a freeing move to the 59.5x lows with a clear direction from foreign asset purchases and -ve rates coming. => Firstly think of the curious circumstances we are looking at when analysing the global macro outlook. The blockade set via inflation and Yields usually turns out to be a severe recession in all respects: => Secondly the momentum is building and confirming the likely sustainability of the NZD outflows and JPY inflows as a double whammy. Positive momentum is coughing after six weeks of chop, this all embracing struggle, is only a means to an end. Remember the importance to strive for mobility, when your central bank confirms its lust to expand the overdraft and buy anything that moves overseas is always sending the currency in one direction. Also for those particularly interested in the region and given the divergence with positive Aussie macro data overnight, it’s no surprise to see AUDNZD continue the grind higher. Sooner or later the NZD capitulation will show itself in NZDJPY and the leg towards 59.5x has appeared. Invalidation in the board will come via a sustained breach above 73.3x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | JPY Long-Term Macro Map The elements of Macro strategy 📍 On the JPY side... It is well known the vulnerability of Japanese corporates in this environment, they are particularly exposed because of the demographics and sector exposures. Restaurants, bars, entertainment etc all are looking very feeble, and with credibility seems to be fading on the monetary and fiscal side too since the latest rounds of stimulus there is room for a massive leg lower in JPY. For those following the conversations on Japanese fiscal bazooka, the sizes are insane... Abe just put through another 6% of GDP and raised the overdraft to +/- 15% of GDP. A comatose recovery is underway, even if the fiscal execution is flawless this will take years to recovery. 📍 On the USD side... Hedging will become a lot lot cheaper with Fed zero rates meaning that the demand for USD will increase as it remains a more attractive hedging instrument than JPY. So we have the following picture: the king stuck in retreat via Covid forcing the front end of the yield curve to stay anchored to rates, while the belly and long end are starting to dislocate and tick higher. This is screaming of longer lasting pain to come . Local politics will provide some ebb and flow although Trump looks a done deal. The only caveat is if Hillary throws her hat in the ring, low odds as per today but of course this will be one to keep an eye on and Biden dependent. 📍 For the technical flows... We are tracking an ABC sequence with the 'C' leg in play after this weekly close. The 151 remains the main target in the sequence with a time horizon of Q4 21 / Q1 22. The monthly chart is a little out of scope for retail trading, instead it will serve as a compass to help our Weekly, Daily and H4 maps. A round of Macro Maps will be uploaded over the weekend. As usual jump in with charts, views, questions or etc and thanks for keeping the support rolling with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | The Elements of AUDJPYBuyers made the completion of an ABC corrective sequence to end the move with today's NY session. Europe are now leaving their desks with defensive superiority at the 70.2x highs. Next comes a test of the lows as the next customary inventiveness of swings across risk markets enters into play. The promises of a vaccine any time soon sadly look like unicorns, politicians will do anything to sell the re-open. After the preparatory manoeuvres complete at 0.650x, AUD sellers are keeping an eye on the weak fundamentals. Covid delivered massive blow to Australia, and with little immunity on the health front further pockets of lockdowns look a matter of when rather than if. Now the RBA is a bridge builder, although PBOC are in retreat and sheltering until the storm passes. It means the "Giant Panda" will no longer be on the AUD bid for the next few Months, and Quarters. AUD is surrendering the 70 handle with the close of shop today. Why? Well, because once the bid expires without breaking the barriers ahead, the lust to expand which was missing until then, is well and truly gone now. Early buyers cutting their longs into resistance, and macro players happy to park in JPY in this environment to prevent any breakup. Reassessment in the bearish view will be required above 70.2x as the nature of the move will be considered impulsive. For now expecting it to wend its wearisome way back towards the lows. It will be interesting to see how buyers flee for the close.
Short
by ridethepig
3
AUDJPY: (Still) best SPX macro correlation Wide Aussie - JGB yield spreads in the 2000’s leading up to ‘08 crisis made Aussie dollar / JP yen the go-to levered carry trade used to fuel the US housing CDO bubble (with subsequent bubble burst → mass unwind which strengthened jpy to 70 vs USD). Post crisis era saw the AUDJPY carry trade out back on. 2016- BOJ implements YCC, pinning 10y JGB yields at ~0%, which made Aussie yields the moving variable- AUD became a gauge of macro risk sentiment as carry trades funded risk assets, including NKY & SPX. In the wake of the global slowdown (starting pre COVID), with Australia facing the end of it’s 3 decades without recession, the RBA has since slashed Aussie cash rates to record lows and then moved to implement YCC itself, making RBA the second developed market central bank to do so after BOJ. AUDJPY remains a favorite fx pair among japan margined retail traders, who are more bullish US equities vs domestic NKY. Japan retail is the “glue” between AUDJPY & SPX (eminis) & NKY (NKY mini futures- which now exceed standard NKY index futures in notional traded value)- when japan retail goes risk-on, AUDJPY & equities rise. When they unwind on margin calls, AUDJPY falls alongside index futures liquidation. With other major FX pairs (namely USDJPY) as well as cross asset UST yields, gold, copper, oil, even VIX no longer having any consistent correlation to SPX, AUDJPY is the one macro asset indicator left with positive correlation. And now that US rates have been cut from above → below Aussie rates with Fed Funds pinned at zero for the foreseeable decade+ and UST 2s approaching zero quickly, the RBA policy meetings are the “new” FOMC with respect to central bank short term SPX influence.
by acrossthespread
$SPY : Fib 0.618 retrace at 293$SPY is range bound for the past 14 trading days. It remains above 20 EMA and hence constructive for the intermediate term. Next likely target is the 61.8 fib retrace at 293. $SPY closing below the 20 EMA may start the next leg down. CB's still firing bazookas with BoJ today declaring unlimited buying of government bonds and removed price momentum from its forward guidance. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank will also publicize their monetary policy measures this week. Both these banks are fighting the devastation of economic activity in their economies and are expected to retain market supportive policies. However #oil remains under pressure with $WTI down more than 17% and Brent oil down about 4% as of now. Not sure if this weakness in #oil will spill over to the general markets. So far the markets have taken this decimation of oil industry in stride.
AMEX:SPYLong
by insyyte
1
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.04.15A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front keeps coming and another round of bankruptcies looks set to take charge across the board…. It is entering into the picture as lockdowns in Europe and US look set to extend till June/July which will squeeze Small & Medium sized firms that wont be able to survive for much more than a couple weeks. A few of scenarios we need to track on the Fundamental side: 1️⃣ Bullish Case - Northern Hemisphere curve flattening with US and Europe opening early June. Will trigger direct legs back towards all time highs across the board in Equities. ( 22% odds ) 2️⃣ Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers. ( 64% odds ) 3️⃣ Bearish Case - How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc… If ‘business as usual’ does not return as masses remain afraid then we can enter into a depression ( 14% odds ) For the technical flows ... over the coming session all eyes are on the key 107.0x support !! ... After it managed to hold todays London and NY sessions it is screaming loudly that USD demand remains prevalent and shows no signs of abating. Initial targets over the coming sessions at 108.3x and 109.3x, to the downside invalidation of the view will come from a breach of 106.9x as it will trigger a momentum move that is also very tradable towards 104.5x. We will have fresh round of DXY and other G10 chart updates coming tomorrow, highly recommend all digging into the details of the flows as the ranges are very wide. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.04For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those tracking the 2020 macro map: It is clear the macro map was short-circuited by the USD spike to mark a medium and long term high in DXY. As usual guys thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion below for the intraday.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.02Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. Historically intervention will occur on Wednesday... look to buy rallies into 109.2x for another selling opportunity! As usual thanks for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Bank Of Japan bought 101,4 billion yen of ETFs todayToday the Bank of Japan purchased a record daily amount of exchange-traded funds after governor Haruhiko Kuroda pledged to provide ample liquidity through its asset purchases, 101,4 billion yen is around $0,94 billion, As a result, Nikkei Index rose almost 3%. The problem now is that this week we are going to know 4 quarter GDP from Japan which is expected to fall 1%. Thus, this growth is temporary or until we receive negative data. Also, it looks like BOJ is simply trying to prop up stock prices. On the other hand, Japanese Company Bankruptcies Rise for First Time Since 2008. In 2019, the number of Japanese companies with net liabilities in excess of ¥10 million rose 1.7% to 8,383, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a report by credit reporting agency Tokyo Shōkō Research. On march 1, Under emergency legislation, the government ordered mask manufacturers to sell their products to the state. It announces it will supply masks to Hokkaidō municipalities with numerous infections.The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare warns that gyms and buffet restaurants are particular danger spots for infections.
Short
by Market_Referee
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.02.26On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end rebalancing there will be room to sell USDJPY from cheaper levels later in the week. Look to fade any rallies into 110.7x with initial targets located at 110.3x and 109.8x. Invalidation of the view comes with a breach of 111.2x. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
Live Positioning in GBPJPY !!!A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff in global equities and with GBPJPY at the top in the range we are sitting at good value levels to recycle shorts. For the map: Highs 143.25 <=> Mid 142.25 <=> Lows 141.25 Expecting a red asian session with more risk clearing to be complete, I am taken back by how complacent that many markets have been able to try looking through the outbreak. We have a few reasons to remain on high alerts, uncertainty around the 2s5s: Notice how the inversions are ahead of recessions, while the press reports all is well there are downside risks building and playable across many markets. If we see an improvement in sentiment around the coronavirus I will lighten up. I will not be stubborn and hold on. Keep it simple and trade the driver! Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.02.04Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients buying JPY offshore which is reassuring for my shorts. On the Daily chart we are still yet to break through Support : I am looking to add more at 109.2x with initial targets at 108.8x and 108.3x on the day. No one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers. Don't forget we can comfortably lean on the 2020 Macro flows for USDJPY: Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Flows (Updated)On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 110.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above there if you plan to play the entire macro swing down in 2020 flows: This idea is no less imaginative than the diagram here: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for the remaining 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig