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Japanese yen flirting with 109The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.74, down 0.09% on the day. The Japanese yen remains vulnerable and the symbolic 109 level is under strong pressure. The dollar has had its way with the yen in 2021, as USD/JPY has jumped 5.5% this year. Last week, the pair climbed to 109.36, its highest level since June 2020. The yen is particularly sensitive to rate differentials between the US and Japan, so the increases in US yields are putting strong pressure on the Japanese currency. The 10-year Treasury yield enjoyed another strong week, rising to 1.72% on Friday. Although the 10-year bond has retreated to 1.67% on Monday, the trend remains positive for bonds, which likely spells more trouble for the shaky Japanese yen. This week has more than 100 billion dollars in government bond auctions, which will test the market's appetite for bonds following last week's Fed policy meeting. In Japan, the equity markets are sharply lower after the BoJ widened its JGB trading band and tweaked its ETF guidance at its policy meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda didn't surprise anyone when he said that monetary easing would continue for a long time. The bank has opted to make some tweaks rather than overhaul its monetary policy, and for this reason the bank's inflation target of 2 percent is likely to remain a bridge too far for the foreseeable future. Later, the bank releases BoJ Core CPI, its preferred inflation gauge (Tuesday, 5:00 GMT). The market will be again paying close attention to the Federal Reserve this week. Later on Monday, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel and we'll also hear from FOMC members today and on Tuesday. Powell will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen. The topic of Powell's testimony is the CARE Act for Covid relief, but investors will be looking for any comments related to higher bond yields or inflation. Any remarks in this regard from Powell or Yellen could shake up the US dollar. USD/JPY is currently range-bound. On the downside, the pair is putting pressure on support at 108.55. Close by, there is support at 108.20. There is resistance at 109.30, followed by resistance at 109.70
by OANDA
EUR analysisToday we are considering the possibility of buying EUR, but against JPY. Here we are in a definite upward trend of the larger periods and the opportunity to enter at the moment is from H1. In the last few days we have seen a corrective movement that has been broken. This allows the price to continue to 130.23. In order to have the strength to continue this movement, the price must not go below the bottom. If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Long
by ForexTrendline
1
Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Harding
2
Week ahead - Interest Rates, CPI's With the new strain of the Coronavirus causing concern across the world, many countries that continue to battle the Coronavirus hope that the vaccine gives them a head start before the strain does any more damage. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th January US Local time. Here is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Monday, 18th January – China's Retail Sales and GDP It seems like China was on their home run. Cases were initially squashed due to their strict lockdown earlier in 2020. The vaccine's advancement last year was the final factor in cementing China's success against the virus. However, a sharp outbreak in Nangong and Shijiazhuang shows the world that no matter how well your initial response is, only continuous and strict restrictions can keep the Coronavirus out of the community. Five days ago, a plot of land in Nangong, Hebei, laid flat. Now, it has become a 1500 room hospital for Covid-19 patients. This may be an overreaction by the Chinese government – however, they may just be preparing for the worst. This does give a sign of what the future may hold for countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where cases are still at record highs. With that said, GDP and Retail Sales are predicted to increase on the back of a boost in the manufacturing sector alongside consumer spending the income they saved during the past lockdown. GDP is expected to rise to 6.1% in Q4, up from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales are predicted to grow. 5.5% in the month of December, ahead of Chinese Near Year. Tuesday, 19th January – Germany's CPI figures The Coronavirus situation in many countries highlights the importance of implementing a strict lockdown and following it through. The benefits of a lockdown only work if community transmission is eliminated. However, many countries apart from a small handful tried to balance economic damage alongside the Coronavirus spread, which meant deescalating Coronavirus restrictions too early, rendering the lockdown useless. Germany is one of the nations that deescalated too quickly, causing massive spikes in their Coronavirus figures. Their total cases now stand at 2.04 Million, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently trying to rush in more stringent restrictions to dampen the virus's spread. However, the recent spike is unlikely to affect analysts' expectation of Germany's CPI,s expected to print at -0.7% for the month of December, the same as a month before. Wednesday, 20th January – United Kingdom's CPI Figures With just under 3.6 Million initial doses having been handed out to the UK public, the United Kingdom's dire situation looks like it's starting to make a turnaround. The daily Coronavirus rate has slowly decreased in the past couple of days - however, Britons do not seem to be adhering to lockdown and social distancing rules. The third lockdown in the past 12 months, UK citizens have been seen gathering around beaches with no mask on. The UK government is banking on the vaccine to help control the virus's spread, as hospital beds continue to be filled with Coronavirus patients. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before. Wednesday 20th January – Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Decision Canada seems to be avoiding the limelight – however, their Coronavirus cases are continuing to skyrocket after a semi-successful, non-strict lockdown. However, like all countries that did not eliminate community transmission, their cases soared as the latter part of 2020 approached. Coronavirus cases in Canada surpassed 700,000 yesterday, which may well play into their interest rate decision this week ahead. With the second wave all but destroying any optimism in Canada's economic recovery, analysts predict a rate cut of less than 0.25%, currently at 0.25%. Andrew Kelvin, Chief Canada Strategist at TD Securities, stated that "The fact that the Bank of Canada has kept the door open to ( a rate cut) in the recent month hasn't gone unnoticed by markets." Thursday, 21st and Friday 22nd January – Australia's Employment Change and Retail Sales Month over Month The news many Australian citizens wanted to hear – "There are no remaining hotspot definitions," Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt stated at a press conference, with only one community transmission in the past couple of days. However, he warned that their not out of the woods yet, stating that "invevitably, there will be days of new cases. There will be days where there may be a requirement for Commonwealth hotspot definition to be reintroduced. But they'll be done on a the basis of that, and cases". This may indicate that Australia is finally able to start its economic recovery – alongside the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic bubble between Australia and New Zealand. Employment Change is expected to decrease from +90,000 in November to +50,000 in December. Thursday, 21st January – Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision Similar to Canada, Japan did not implement a proper lockdown. Instead, they opted for an increase in social distancing measures alongside confidence in their citizens to continue to wear face masks. Just like Canada, initial results were promising. However, as the year passed, it was evident that community transmission is inevitable if it was not thoroughly squashed out. Currently, Japan sits on 325,000 Coronavirus cases, with daily cases reaching an all-time high of 8,000 just a couple of days ago. With negative rates in Japan, monetary policy moves to the downside are rare as not to dig a hole the Bank of Japan can not come out of. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. However, analysts at Bloomberg Economics forecast the BoJ to keep rates as is not only this week ahead but for the whole year. Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and most importantly, stay safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 What was the point in BOJ meeting overnight? Finally extensions of the handouts coming from the Japanese base, and remarkably the 103.0x was rescued via lack of conviction from macro players to chase it lower. Buyers now can play the break, undoing their opponents work and imagine the test of 105 as being important for the yearly close flows. This iteration of dollar strength will be most visible in GBPUSD and USDJPY - choppy conditions seem appropriate. Here we are tracking this rather technical move. I am looking firstly for a move towards 105 resistance, followed by a zag to fade back towards 103.5x which is a 300 tick round trip. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
EUR/JPY taking the early lead in todays trading session...Before: Amid a lacklustre open to the trade session EUR/JPY has taken an early lead in development especially within the daily uptrend. As we are seeing a nice break-out continuation, we should see the final leg to the upside relatively soon. Latest news from this morning: BoJ Governor Kuroda says they are closely watching FX moves but will not comment on details; no need to think the JPY's rise is having serious effects on the economy. EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier said there is good progress but the last stumbling blocks remain and that in this final stretch of talks, transparency and unity are important as ever. (Newswires) EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier reportedly said that a Brexit deal is possible by Friday according to AFP citing sources, while other reports stated that EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier is understood to have told the EU Parliament that a Brexit deal is possible by the weekend but difficult, according to WSJ's Norman. (AFP/WSJ)
by FTUKcom
4
ridethepig | JPY beyond the elections🔸 USDJPY - into the elections Sellers have the move and already played the exchange towards 100 on the initial covid chapter I. They are aiming for the ideal Yearly closing position (the frontal attack against any laggards). I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan (a serious contender for chart of the year) at the beginning and by not being as familiar as I was with the well-known rules on Tradingview. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise striving of inflation is more clearly illustrated than in the diagram that follows: Inflation expectations proceed as follows: as dismal Covid data floods the wires => stimulus then becomes a big part of that story 📍 There is no amount of printing that can counter deflation. As globalisation contracts, it creates a deflationary tsunami on the underlying capital formation. We then have to factor in bottlenecks on the supply side from lockdowns, agricultural shortages and etc which create inflationary pressures. The key idea is that they can simply clear the way for the Suganomics/Abenomics with a different pair of Calvin Kleins and prevent the breakdown of 100 is truly the only way to save Japan, because the MT and LT outlooks look awful there. In the more immediate term, the second covid chapter and election protection may keep JPY in demand and lower-time frame rallies will still attract selling interest. Here tracking 105.8x as resistance for another attempt of 104.1x and 100.0x before the king starts its journey. How keenly the speculators are at outguessing the demise of Japan. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
9
RidetheMacro| USDJPY Outlook 2020.09.19📌the USD/JPY currency pair reached one and a half month lows this week at the middle of the 104th figure. In this price area, the southern momentum has faded and now traders are at crossroads: on the one hand – the weakening greenback which again began to lose its positions and on the other hand – the lack of weighty arguments for continuing the downward movement. The results of the September meeting of the Bank of Japan and the data published today on the growth of Japanese inflation did not provide any clarity as the USD/JPY pair continues to trade against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture.📈 🏦 the BoJ said in its Sept. 17 monetary-policy statement. “The pace of improvement is expected to be only moderate while the impact of COVID-19 🦠 remains worldwide.” The Japanese economy shrank 7.9% on quarter in Q2 2020, compared with the preliminary reading of a 7.8% decline and market consensus of an 8.1% drop, and after a 0.6% fall in Q1. This was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Private consumption tumbled, falling for the third straight quarter (-7.9% vs -0.7% in Q1) 📍 Any material shift in this regard may be exacerbated by a contraction in global growth, with capital flight into the dollar Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! 🤝 Until next time, Ride the macro
Long
by Ridethemacro
4
ridethepig | Nikkei Market Commentary 2020.09.19📌 The Nikkei would have freed some space to the downside with a technical break last week, but given that we have not pierced the support line and buyers are still well-placed we must be wary of a retest in the highs of the multi year top at 24,000 - the same level we have been tracking since 2018!! The more interesting notion comes from the Global Equity board with breaks being led by NY and following through with Europe on the quadruple witching flows. A simple move here would be playing the breakdown for a quick test of the 200 day MA which is +/- 22,000 and on the other perhaps opening up the panic leg towards the lows at 20,300 if the rest of the flows play along. Any moves to the topside lack conviction and the RSI destroys all winning chances for buyers as we approach the highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:NI225Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2020.09.12📍 JPY Buyers are threatening to breakout. After 107 comes 110 and then 112.x. But sellers have other trump cards, for example covid. My impression is as follows: as the dollar firms and finds a temporary floor therefore can be considered a bounce into the elections which can be somewhat double-edged. If the preconditions are met, namely if we get a continuation of Abenomics with the leadership elections, and effective parries into the Yen are restrained, then beginning the advance towards 150 may be justified. But we should consider the development here to be EARLY/OPENING game. In light of this, we should take longs on a leash and if the market starts paying we can add more size. The technical breakout would lead to buyers occupying the flows. Equities may felt even more the heat if we see a paralysing effect via temporary USD inflows. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
Where USDJPY will go?One of the pairs that have been without a clear direction for the longest time is USDJPY. In the chart we see that for the second month we have lower peaks and higher bottoms. This is one of the most famous and reliable figures - a triangle. Such triangles develop at almost all periods. From monthly to 30m. However, if we open the weekly and monthly chart , then there we can see that this is part of a larger triangle. Why do we pay attention to these triangles now? This week will be key! We are expecting news on Wednesday about the Fed's interest rate decision. A few hours later, there is a decision by BoJ. We are also entering a pre-election battle in the USA and the season of JPY movements. Where USDJPY will go will probably become clear this week!
by ForexTrendline
1
ridethepig | NZDJPY Market Commentary 2020.08.15So much for the round of chart updates...@ridethepig has been taking some time off this summer to prepare for a very busy September onwards. 📌 NZDJPY retrace swing is running out steam at the 69.9x / 70.0x highs. While risk remains in the background despite the political fairy-dust, the urge to park capital in the Yen has been maintained but for how much longer? A dovish RBNZ has provided us with a freeing move to the 59.5x lows with a clear direction from foreign asset purchases and -ve rates coming. => Firstly think of the curious circumstances we are looking at when analysing the global macro outlook. The blockade set via inflation and Yields usually turns out to be a severe recession in all respects: => Secondly the momentum is building and confirming the likely sustainability of the NZD outflows and JPY inflows as a double whammy. Positive momentum is coughing after six weeks of chop, this all embracing struggle, is only a means to an end. Remember the importance to strive for mobility, when your central bank confirms its lust to expand the overdraft and buy anything that moves overseas is always sending the currency in one direction. Also for those particularly interested in the region and given the divergence with positive Aussie macro data overnight, it’s no surprise to see AUDNZD continue the grind higher. Sooner or later the NZD capitulation will show itself in NZDJPY and the leg towards 59.5x has appeared. Invalidation in the board will come via a sustained breach above 73.3x. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
12