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Japanese Yen (USDJPY) May 2017 OverviewWith geopolitical tension rising in the Asia, the Japanese Yen benefitted from its safe haven status in the second half of May, gaining around 400 pips in one week. The Japanese large positive external balance as well as huge international investments have driven yen’s demand even further, which mark the strength at 110 against the dollar – down from May’s high of above 114. Although the country has defeated the long-year deflation, real price gains still remain weak at 0.2% year on year – far below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%. In the long term perspective, we still expect the Yen to weaken, and potentially driving the USDJPY towards the high around 120.
by KarYong
EURUSD: Long term outlookThe downtrend in the Euro is in danger here. If EURUSD stalls, or rallies higher, there's a chance that it breaks the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode resistance, igniting a fierce rally, after absorbing all overhead supply. I deem it as a lower probability event, but a very significant one, if we do indeed make the downtrend fail. I think we can see a huge rally. This is a very crowded trade, so I'll focus on attemtpting to catch the dollar fall, while still being long good value US equities. If by the end of June, we don't hit 0,98898, we could anticipate price breaking higher in time. The minimum required time is signaled on chart. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDJPY: Trend is up nowI think we can be more or less sure that the trend has now turned up on this pair. I'm holding longs, although I had closed earlier, I reentered when turning up for the day today, after we made a new daily low. That was a good cue for a potential short term bottom. I like the VIX key levels on this pair, I have talked about this in the past. For more information, check Tim West's publications. If you're long, hold and trail stops gradually. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDJPY: Bottom's in...as wellThis is an update to my previous $USDJPY publications. We are long, after averaging in for 4 days, starting the day of the exact low, with a cost basis of 108.66, holding a 33% account long position. I think we can resume the rally, and get an uptrend of proportions similar to the one that took place after the presidential election in the US. I'll be looking to add short term entries, applying multiple trend following proprietary strategies that we use to better leverage trends while they last. If you're already in, try to be patient and hold, after we surpass the red resistance zone we have a lot of upside in this pair. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Weekly analysis - Trend up possiblyThis is a weekly breakdown of the patterns in $USDJPY, showing the power of Tim West's methodology in action. I'm back in the long side here, bought at 110.611, and will let it run until we retest the supply at the top of the range at least. If we do get there it will be interesting to see how it navigates through it, or, if it tops and goes back down. The market has some upside left, to the tune of 10%+, so it is likely that investors will use the yen to get some free money to invest in US assets. We have record outflows from japanese bonds and stocks, and it is likely that this correlates with the move back into the US for foreign investors. Cheers, Ivam Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
GBPJPY: If it breaks the weekly mode, it can soarI'm long $GBPJPY, as part of my FX portfolio, I think we might see an increase in FDI in Great Britain, after the Brexit vote. The Yen lets foreign investors acquire free money to invest in US and UK assets. The chart is interesting here, so it's probably a good pair to trade on the long side. The spread in the UK stock market compared to the European one is interesting as well. I like the potential short squeeze in the Pound to further boost this trade once commercial shorts unwind. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Intermediate term viewI think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest high at the bottom, and the recent highest low before this last selloff in the Euro, which formed the 'Right shoulder' of our bottoming pattern. These trendlines are quite significant, so keep an eye on them for the breakout. It's viable to keep stops far from the action now, to give this setup enough time to pan out, but if you're actively trading, you can also trade around the core position, in the short term. I leave that up to your discretion, just consider the main bias here is long. We need to see 1.07396 hit within 3 days, ideally, which will probably be followed by stagnation, until we can break the 'neckline' here (happens to align with an ECB key resistance level (labeled by the green line near the recent highs.). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
USDJPY: Better to leave it alone until the 24thUSDJPY daily charts indicate we're temporarily in a downtrend, and the weekly chart suggests it's wise to wait for bearish momentum to slow down in this time scale, before attempting to go long. Weekly and monthly trends show an uptrend, according to the RgMov indicator, and have good potential, once the downside is exhausted. If we don't hit 109.536 by Feb 24th, we could assume the bears have lost steam, and buyers will be taking control once again. I'll update this chart with future developments. For now, better buy TLT, or some other bond proxy, perhaps even short $USDJPY, but it's simply safer to leave it be, and wait to buy at the bottom. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
2