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USDJPY: Bottom's in...as wellThis is an update to my previous $USDJPY publications. We are long, after averaging in for 4 days, starting the day of the exact low, with a cost basis of 108.66, holding a 33% account long position. I think we can resume the rally, and get an uptrend of proportions similar to the one that took place after the presidential election in the US. I'll be looking to add short term entries, applying multiple trend following proprietary strategies that we use to better leverage trends while they last. If you're already in, try to be patient and hold, after we surpass the red resistance zone we have a lot of upside in this pair. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Weekly analysis - Trend up possiblyThis is a weekly breakdown of the patterns in $USDJPY, showing the power of Tim West's methodology in action. I'm back in the long side here, bought at 110.611, and will let it run until we retest the supply at the top of the range at least. If we do get there it will be interesting to see how it navigates through it, or, if it tops and goes back down. The market has some upside left, to the tune of 10%+, so it is likely that investors will use the yen to get some free money to invest in US assets. We have record outflows from japanese bonds and stocks, and it is likely that this correlates with the move back into the US for foreign investors. Cheers, Ivam Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
GBPJPY: If it breaks the weekly mode, it can soarI'm long $GBPJPY, as part of my FX portfolio, I think we might see an increase in FDI in Great Britain, after the Brexit vote. The Yen lets foreign investors acquire free money to invest in US and UK assets. The chart is interesting here, so it's probably a good pair to trade on the long side. The spread in the UK stock market compared to the European one is interesting as well. I like the potential short squeeze in the Pound to further boost this trade once commercial shorts unwind. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Intermediate term viewI think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest high at the bottom, and the recent highest low before this last selloff in the Euro, which formed the 'Right shoulder' of our bottoming pattern. These trendlines are quite significant, so keep an eye on them for the breakout. It's viable to keep stops far from the action now, to give this setup enough time to pan out, but if you're actively trading, you can also trade around the core position, in the short term. I leave that up to your discretion, just consider the main bias here is long. We need to see 1.07396 hit within 3 days, ideally, which will probably be followed by stagnation, until we can break the 'neckline' here (happens to align with an ECB key resistance level (labeled by the green line near the recent highs.). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
USDJPY: Better to leave it alone until the 24thUSDJPY daily charts indicate we're temporarily in a downtrend, and the weekly chart suggests it's wise to wait for bearish momentum to slow down in this time scale, before attempting to go long. Weekly and monthly trends show an uptrend, according to the RgMov indicator, and have good potential, once the downside is exhausted. If we don't hit 109.536 by Feb 24th, we could assume the bears have lost steam, and buyers will be taking control once again. I'll update this chart with future developments. For now, better buy TLT, or some other bond proxy, perhaps even short $USDJPY, but it's simply safer to leave it be, and wait to buy at the bottom. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
2
USDJPY: Inside daysThe market seems to be awaiting news, since we have two days in a row, contained by a previous day's true range. This has only happened 12 times since the top in 2015, so you can tell that the market awaits major news to decide on direction, or resume the pace it had. Price action until we break out of this range might be erratic, so don't caught up trying to navigate the murky intraday noise waters and focus on the big picture here. Just a heads up. Check the news calendar, and then trade. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
9
DXY: Pullback gives a good buying opportunityDXY is in a long term uptrend, so, corrections give way to excellent buying opportunities. This way, we can profit from exploiting volatility, while following our long term vision and fundamental bias. There is a correction under way, which I assume can be similar to the previous ones. I think the move up will start soon, but it'll probably gain steam after FOMC is out of the way, not before. I'd reccomend buying into a position gradually, since now we made a strong move down, breaking into new weekly lows, so we'll need to use a wide stop loss (or calculating size based on risking 0.5-3% of the account, if stopped out 3 times the daily average true range value down from the initial entry). Monitor price action in the coming 8 days, it should be clear when it's about to turn up again, so be ready to add incrementally to the position. Let's see how it goes, good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn. The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop. The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop. I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6