DXY: Pullback gives a good buying opportunityDXY is in a long term uptrend, so, corrections give way to excellent buying opportunities. This way, we can profit from exploiting volatility, while following our long term vision and fundamental bias.
There is a correction under way, which I assume can be similar to the previous ones. I think the move up will start soon, but it'll probably gain steam after FOMC is out of the way, not before. I'd reccomend buying into a position gradually, since now we made a strong move down, breaking into new weekly lows, so we'll need to use a wide stop loss (or calculating size based on risking 0.5-3% of the account, if stopped out 3 times the daily average true range value down from the initial entry).
Monitor price action in the coming 8 days, it should be clear when it's about to turn up again, so be ready to add incrementally to the position.
Let's see how it goes, good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Boj
XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn.
The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop.
The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop.
I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
USDJPY: Long term viewUSDJPY might have resumed the long term uptrend from the 2011 lows, so we will be looking to buy back in, after closing longs in profit for now. Watch the overhead resistance levels and study this chart. I'll update it periodically.
I'd reccomend against shorting this, and would rather focus on long gold and euro, and/or Aussie.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ps: the outlook is bullish for equities, and long term bullish for the dollar.
USDJPY Monthly: "Keep it simple" Interesting to short now. Due to the yen being supposed to be a safe haven currency and a simultaneously strengthening dollar, direction might not be perfectly clear, but the overall trend seems bullish to me. This will probably depend on #BoJ and #Fed incoming action. Good Luck!
GBPJPY: Speculative long positionWe have an interesting setup here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Risk is big in the Pound pairs, so only risk 0.5% on the long here. The spread with USDJPY might close soon, so you might have sizeable upside in this pair. Invalidation is a move back under last week's open for this trade idea.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ps: I'm still unsure of the GBPUSD pair, so I'm currently flat, although I'd reccomend caution trading it. Size trades small so you have reasonable risk. Look at the ATR indicator for clues.
USDJPY. Short, intermediate and long term projectionThe USDJPY pair is tracing a strong long term reversal in my opinion, and here we have an opportunity to join the trend with minimal risk. You can go long at market, using the long term stops on chart, close to 101.2, or, take a buy stop order at 104.703 (good for the day), speculating that Kuroda's speech will take care of triggering this daily uptrend, with stop at 103.789.
Targets are on chart, good luck if you follow me on this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Clear resistance levels on the AUDJPYThis chart speaks for itself really. The AUDJPY is hovering just below its 200-day moving average (currently at 80.11) with a bearish trend line resistance at 80.70/80. Upcoming Japaneses inflation data may provide a catalyst for a more clear direction in prices, which could possibly help determine whether this pair is destined to fall once again or break free of its predominant downward trend. The underlying fundamentals (i.e. central bank policy) favor prices to remain under pressure, but there is a lot of uncertainty currently over the BoJ and its stance on adding to its QE package. Traders should, therefore, react more to Japanese inflation data than they did following the Australian CPI release earlier this week. As it stands, so long as the AUDJPY trades below 80.70, the risk/reward ratio for short strategies (swing trading) is attractive. Possible targets for such strategies would be 78 and 76, the latter requiring generalized pressures on the Aussie dollar in November. If prices break above 81 in the next couple of days, however, I would be inclined to believe that the market could rise back up to around 85/86. This would really require the yen to be sold off, however, as the Aussie has already risen against most of its counterparts recently.
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY:
1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows.
USD risks are bid
1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched.
2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance.
3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least.
JPY risks are to the soft side
1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality.
2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above.
3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias.
Risks to the view:
1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTIONLONG USDJPY:
1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows.
USD risks are bid
1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 and now. That said in the past few wks usdjpy has traded relatively mutely compared to the market thus imo has more alpha than other crosses and as another few 100pips before we can consider usdjpy stretched.
2) the usdjpy has a Dec hike to look forward to. Whilst i expect USDJPY to be faded as we saw following the last hike, i think these next 2 months we will trade to 109/11 as rate hike hopes push the pair into firmer resistance.
3) USD election risk is likely going to fade with the neutral choice of Hilary winning. Thus any Trump uncertainty weighing on the USD will be washed out which could be worth 50pips at least.
JPY risks are to the soft side
1) BOJ monpol risks remain skewed somewhat to the dovish side since whilst inflation continues to trade firmly and consistently below 0 the BOJ are DEFINITELY unable to raise rates and are unlikely to consider tapering (the ECB has firm 0.4% inflation and even they may not consider a taper). Thus the risks are certainly to adding to easing, with the most hawkish outcome being neutrality.
2) JPY like the rest of the safe havens remain bid up some 20% in 2016 alone thus a correction lower some 5% isnt extreme and infact is fairly justified (thus a 111 target is arguably on the cards). This is especially true assuming the next big risk event (election) passes with the most neutral and odds on favourite candidate winning (hilary). Thus any risk premium priced into yen for this purpose will be faded and encourage the 5% correction i mention above.
3. JPY volatility remains at the lows of the yearly range thus a topside correction encouraged into election and FOMC events will possibly see yen trade with a softer bias.
Risks to the view:
1. If Trump pulls off the tail end probability then USDJPY long imo will be invalid given i expect the USD to trade softer and yen to rally. I would expect USDJPY to trade to 100 in the event of Trump winning.
Nikkei: Bullish breakout in the dailyWe have a huge level below, and price has formed a daily 'Time at mode' signal.
You can enter longs here, risking a new daily low, and aiming for at least 17405 to be hit rapidly.
This is a technical setup, and it has good enough odds as to risk 1-2% in the position.
Good luck if you take it,
Ivan Labrie.
Road to Riches - USDJPYAfter breaking out of the Weekly bear channel, we saw a pop up of 300 pips (c.100.8-104.0), and noticed a Bull Continuation Flag building up over the days.
Deep Take Profit Point lies at 107.8, with the pole being the same length as seen in the charts. I am looking to Long USDJPY 0.17% till at least 75% of the pole's length, which TP lying slightly above 106.5.
Good luck
USDJPY: Weekly uptrend firedThis is an update to my previous publication. We now have full confirmation of a weekly uptrend aiming for 110.141 by December 23rd or sooner.
If not long you can buy new daily lows, or dips to 102.8 after this week's close. Jumping in now, is not bad, but not optimal.
This uptrend probably implies that the smart money is getting into new leveraged positions for the last quarter of the year, largely bullish for equities, so, we might return to Yen, Bonds and Gold being opposite to S&P500 again in this risk on rally.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold Update - Buying DipsWe strongly believe that TA does not have weight on a non-technical market, we experienced this yesterday as Gold dropped over $50 and nobody knew why, despite what they say publicly :) However, we can't ignore TA completely, that wouldn't be smart.
Our chart illustrates weekly and monthly fibo targeted support levels. If Gold breaks weekly 62.8% support level this week (specially if NFP is >150k ) price could extend to monthly support at 50% as indicated on the chart. The 1200 level is significant as multiple technical support levels confluence (see our Monthly published charts below).
We note USDJPY PA to analyze the Gold market as we strongly believe the correlation is very strong this year.
Disclaimer: Shorts from 1363, 1347 and 1315 being managed with TP1 at 1293 (closed 33%), TP2 at 1254s and finally TP3 at 1212s (subject to market conditions). Long added at 1293 stopped out at $4 loss. Long at 1283 and 1266s being maintained - no SL applied yet. Reduced risk applied to longs.
Please trade at your own risk. Don't take me seriously. :))
Looking for a Base to LONG FromI am LONG for LIFE on USDJPY, but for now looking for a good base to LONG from. The green rectangle could be a good spot to see a bounce if we fall that far down. This would be the top of the previous months' long trend channel. This would also confirm a new trend channel to the upside.
SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT USDJPY:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level.
Trading Strategy:
1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.
Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
SHORT USDJPY - STRAT TRADE: 99.4% PROBABILITY OF REVERSALSHORT USDJPY:
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) USDJPY has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.6%, hence there is a implied 99.4% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 103 level.
Trading Strategy:
1. Sell USDJPY at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.
Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
Gold Monthly OutlookFollow the Moving Average. Price always comes back to MA + interesting support levels. Be cautious if 1300s/1260s Broken. This is not a trade chart. Observe price behaviour. IMO Fundamentals stronger than Technicals during "uncertain" times.
Disclaimer: Even though we hold a few short positions, overall we maintain a bullish bias at key support levels.