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USD/JPY – Yen on a tear, US GDP blows past forecast The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these losses. The yen has soared, rising 2.4% this week and a staggering 4.5% in the month of July. There’s plenty of buzz but also uncertainty in the air as the yen has gone on a torrid run against the hapless US dollar. The yen jumped 1.1% on Wednesday after a senior Japanese official urged the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. As well, the sharp drop in global tech stocks sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens, including the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan meets on July 30-31 and it’s a close call as to whether it will stay on the sidelines or raise interest rates. The central bank is also expected to announce details of a plan to cut bond purchases in order to reduce its massive monetary stimulus. The BoJ has hinted that a rate hike is coming, but the question of timing is up in the air. Core inflation rose to 2.6% in June and wages have climbed sharply, setting up the case for the central bank to raise rates. On the other side of the coin, consumer spending has been weak and inflation is relatively moderate. The US economy climbed 2.8% y/y in the second quarter, double the 1.4% rate in the first quarter and blowing past the forecast of 2.0%. An increase in consumer spending helped drive the strong gain. On the inflation front, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, eased to 2.6%, down from 3.4% in Q1. USD/JPY tested support at 152.68 earlier. Below, there is support at 151.45 There is resistance at 154.33 and 155.56
by fisherkj4
Strong JPY, Weak Nikkei. Trading Plans Post FallAs the JPY has gained value, on propping up rumours via Japan Authorities, we have seen a drop in the Nikkei. The pro growth rates set by the BOJ have allowed the Japanese Nikkei to grow to higher highs continually, inline with the positive market sentiment spurred on by a better global economic outlook and a soft landing. A retracement, however, would reflect some of the economic woes induced by low rates. Anything that turns this around will likely take us back to highs. Conversely, a continuation of current sentiment will bring us lower. Any longs, therefore, must be tiny, if any. Save them till later.
SPREADEX:NIKKEI
by WillSebastian
2
Levels Discussed Post US CPI and BoJ InterventionDXY: Now consolidating on 104.50, needs to stay below 104.80 to remain bearish, with key support at 104 round number. NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 20 TP 50 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6810 SL 20 TP 60 USDJPY: Look for reaction at 160 (possible 2nd intervention level from BoJ) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2940 SL 40 TP 90 EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.0920 USDCHF: Looking for reaction at 0.89 USDCAD: Likely to range between 1.36 and 1.3650 Gold: Needs to break 2420 to trade up to 2450
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Levels discussed on livestream 27th June27th June DXY: testing the support level (105.90) needs to stay above 105.75. Look for bounce to 106.40 (needs to break previous high) NZDUSD: Sell 0.6065 SL 25 TP 80 AUDUSD: Test and reject 0.67, Sell 0.6695 SL 20 TP 60 USDJPY: Buy 161.10 SL 30 TP 90 (look to close quick!!!) Becareful, possible intervention area GBPUSD: Sell 1.2590 SL 20 TP 75 EURUSD: Sell 1.0665 SL 15 TP 50 USDCHF: Buy 0.9025 SL 20 TP 50 USDCAD: Buy 1.3725 SL 20 TP 55 Gold: Watch out for support at 2285
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Trading Idea: Shorting GBPJPY Amid Conflicting Signals from JapaThe recent statement from Japan's Finance Minister about possibly giving up FX intervention due to its ineffectiveness, which seems to suggest acceptance of the yen's continuous weakness, directly conflicts with recent BOJ communications. Considering this, shorting GBPJPY becomes a highly volatile decision. Nonetheless, a trade is a trade. If this trade goes well, profits are expected within 2 hours. If not, that's part of the game. Trade Setup: Short GBPJPY Entry : 202.97 Stop-Loss : 203.21 Target 1 : 202.60 Target 2 : Open Strategy: - Volatility Consideration : Acknowledge the high volatility due to conflicting statements from Japan’s Finance Minister and BOJ. - Risk Management : Set stop-loss at 203.21 to manage potential losses. Profit Targets : Target 1 : 202.60 Target 2 : Keep open Remember to breathe and prepare for the next trade. What’s your take on this situation? Do you see a different angle or strategy? Share your thoughts and insights below!
Short
by RaynLim
USDJPY Analysis and Trade OpportunitiesLike I mentioned in our weekend live session, I don't see any BOJ intervention happening soon. The earliest I’m looking is when the market reaches 158.73, with the next level at 159.66. Around 157.74 is the level I'll be looking for a buying opportunity using the existing strategy that I've used for many years. Key Levels: Potential Intervention Levels : - 158.73 - 159.66 - Buying Opportunity : Around 157.74 Shorting Opportunities : 1-Hourly Chart : - Bearish Bat Pattern Completion : 158.15 - ABCD Pattern Completion : 158.39 if the Bearish Bat Pattern does not complete Strategy : - Buying at 157.74 : Use the tried and tested strategy that has worked over the years. - Shorting Opportunities : Monitor the 1-hourly chart for potential Bearish Bat Pattern at 158.15 and ABCD Pattern at 158.39. What’s your trade plan for USDJPY? Any valuable insights you’d like to share? Comment down below.
Long
by RaynLim
Levels discussed during livestream 14th June14th June DXY: test resistance area of 105.60-105.70. (could retrace briefly due to end of week) Breaking resistance could trade up to 106.40 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6130 SL 20 TP 50 (Hesitation at 0.61) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6565 SL 25 TP 70 USDJPY: Buy 158.40 SL 50 TP 100 GBPUSD: Wait for reaction at 1.2690 EURUSD: Sell 1.0705 SL 30 TP 90 (Hesitation at 1.0670) USDCHF: No setup for now USDCAD: Sell 1.3770 SL 30 TP 85 Gold: Likely to range between 2340 and 2290
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Could the USDJPY retest 160?When the BoJ increased interest rates in March, for the first time in 17 years, the Yen continued to weaken due to the perceived lack of commitment toward further rate hikes. In April the BoJ kept rates on hold at 0.10%, which saw the Yen react with further weakness. The BoJ is due to release its Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow (Friday). With the USDJPY currently at the 157.25 price level, a resumption of strength on the DXY following the FOMC decision yesterday could see the USDJPY climb up to the resistance level of 158 before the BoJ decision. If the BoJ decides to keep rates on hold and not take any further action on reducing its bond purchases, the Yen could weaken further, pushing the USDJPY higher toward the all time high of 160. This is likely to make it very interesting as it would reignite the speculation of a possible currency intervention from the BoJ
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Japan rate decision Friday: A deeper look Japan's wholesale inflation surged in May at the fastest annual rate in nine months, data revealed yesterday, indicating that a weak yen may be exerting upward pressure on prices by increasing the cost of raw material imports. Producer prices in Japan rose 2.4% year-on-year in May 2024, up from 1.1% in April, surpassing market expectations of a 2% rise. This data is likely to be a key factor for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board as it convenes for a two-day policy meeting ending on Friday. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its short-term interest rate target within the 0% to 0.1% range. However, the data adds complexity to the BOJ's decision-making on the timing of interest rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that the central bank will consider raising rates further if it becomes more confident that underlying inflation will remain around the 2% target. Looking at the 4-hour chart today, the USD/JPY has rebounded following the FOMC decision, erasing much of the post-CPI drop, and passing through the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-hour Exponential Moving Averages.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bearish Deep Gartley Pattern w BOJ DecisionFor those who favor counter-trend trades or believe in a potential BOJ intervention, the Bearish Deep Gartley Pattern on the 1-hourly chart is worth your attention. 1-Hourly Chart: - Key Level: This pattern provides an excellent risk-reward ratio for shorting opportunities. Reminder: - Don’t overtrade. - Always conduct your own analysis and avoid blindly following others. What's your trade plan for USDJPY? Comment down below and share your insights! Happy trading!
Short
by RaynLim
6
USD/JPY calm as GDP within expectationsThe Japanese yen is calm on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.91, up 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s GDP declines Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter with a weak reading of -1.8% y/y, following a revised 0.4% gain in Q4 2023. This was slightly higher than the market estimate of -1.9% and the initial estimate of -2.0%. On a quarterly basis, GDP declined by 0.5%, in line with expectations. This followed a small gain of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The weak GDP data follows a soft household spending release last week, which showed decline of 1.2% m/m in April. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and is not expected to raise interest rates, after a historic rate hike in March. This was the first rate hike since 2007 and a clear shift away from the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy. There is speculation that the BoJ might discuss reducing its purchases of Japanese government bonds in an effort to unwind monetary policy in order to shore up the ailing Japanese yen. Strong US nonfarm payrolls boost US dollar Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report was hotter than expected and provided a boost to the US dollar against all the major currencies, including the yen. Nonfarm payrolls in May rose to 272 thousand, blowing past the market estimate of 185,000 and much stronger than the revised gain of 165 thousand in April. Wage growth accelerated in May and was also higher than expected. Surprisingly, the unemployment rate crept up to 4%, up from 3.9% in April and above the market estimate of 3.9%. The strong job numbers have helped cushion the impact on the economy of high rates and that has kept inflation stubbornly high. According the CME’s MarketWatch, the odds of a quarter-point cut in September have dropped to 46%, compared to 51% just one week ago. There is virtually no chance of a rate cut at this week’s meeting, but investors will be very interested in what the Fed has to say. There is resistance at 157.52 and 158.28 156.33 and 155.57 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being. The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include: Japan GDP Growth Rate (final) Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook Japan Producer Price Inflation For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum. On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair. The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
USD/JPY steady despite soft household spendingThe Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic growth, declined by 1.2% m/m in April. This followed a 1.2% gain in March and was well short of the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, household spending rose 0.5%, up from -1.2% but short of the market estimate of 0.6%. Japanese households have been curbing spending as inflation is high and economic conditions remain gloomy. On Monday, we’ll get a look at Japan’s GDP for the first quarter and the forecast is not looking good. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.5% q/q in Q1 after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This would point to the economy barely avoiding a recession. On an annualized basis, the economy is expected to have declined by 2% after a gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and a weak GDP report could complicate plans to tighten policy. The BoJ has hinted that it will continue on the path to normalization but if the central bank doesn’t make any moves at the June meeting, the weak Japanese yen could lose more ground. In the US, the week wraps up with the nonfarm payrolls report for May. This release is one of the most important events on the data calendar but has found itself overshadowed by inflation releases. Still, nonfarm payrolls is a market-mover that can have a significant impact on the US dollar. The market estimate stands at 185,000 for May, little changed from the 175,000 gain in April. USD/JPY tested resistance at 155.81 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 156.21 155.19 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 154.74
by OANDA
Japan’s Q1 GDP Falls Faster Than Expected• Japan’s Q1 GDP falls faster than expected • Data raises questions about when the BOJ will lift interest rates. • Yen's weakness complicates picture for BoJ • Japan's real wages fell for a 24th consecutive month Japan's economy fell faster than expected in the first quarter. Preliminary gross domestic product data from the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed Japan's economy shrank -2% annualized in January to March from the prior quarter, faster than the 1.5% drop seen in a Reuters poll of economists. In the first quarter of this year, private consumption, which is the largest component of GDP, dropped by an annualized -2.7% from the previous three-month period. Corporate investment fell -3.2%. Exports fell 18.7%, while imports also fell -12.8%, resulting in a decline in net exports. Private residential investment dropped -9.8% from the previous quarter. Downwardly revised data showed GDP barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2023, due to downgrades to capital expenditure estimates. Japan’s GDP Growth. Source: Japan’s Cabinet Office Data raises questions about when the BoJ will lift interest rates The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 in March, and persistently high inflation may pave the way for another move. There are signs of a division among ruling Liberal Democratic Party members over whether the central bank should hike again or keep rates low to smooth financing. The BoJ is paying close attention to whether demand-driven inflation, backed by strong wage growth, is taking root in Japan. Yen's weakness complicates picture for BoJ A weaker yen has created a two-speed economy in Japan, with the export and tourism sectors broadly benefiting from a more competitive exchange rate. However, households and small businesses are squeezed by inflated costs of imported goods. The yen's weakness complicates the question of whether the BoJ should maintain its monetary stimulus or continue to unwind it. • Japan's real wages fall for 24th consecutive month When real wage growth remains negative, it's hard to expect strong private consumption. The weakening of domestic demand coincides with inflation outpacing wage growth. This comes despite the annual wage negotiations in the spring between labor unions and management yielding the best outcome in three decades after major companies weighed the impact of the recent bout of cost-push inflation and agreed to hike pay. Real wage growth, seen as crucial for Japan to completely emerge from its long fight against deflation, has lagged behind price hikes, eroding households' purchasing power as prices for everyday goods have continued rising due to high raw material costs and a weak yen. The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.
by CFI
CADJPY - Wait For The Bears Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, CADJPY is currently approaching a massive supply zone marked in red. 📉 For the bears to take over again and start the next bearish impulse movement, a break below the last major low in gray is needed. Meanwhile, CADJPY would be bullish short-term and can still trade higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Short
by TheSignalyst
BOJ Intervention Again⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, EUJPY is currently approaching a massive supply zone marked in red. For the bears to take over again and start the next bearish impulse movement, a break below the last major low in gray is needed. Meanwhile, EURJPY would be bullish short-term and can still trade higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
USD/JPY – Yen weakness prompts warning from TokyoThe Japanese yen is down for a third straight day and has declined 1.5% this week. USD/JPY has risen 0.43% on the day and is trading at 155.35 at the time of writing. Early Thursday, the BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions from the April meeting. Japanese officials remain mum about suspected interventions on the currency markets last week. The yen broke below the 160 line before recovering and surged 3.4% last week. However, the yen’s strength did not take long to dissipate and has dropped below the 150 level today. Previous interventions by Tokyo boosted the yen for only a short time and that appears to be the trend again. The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) weighed into the yen crisis earlier today. BoJ Governor Ueda said the central bank could take monetary action if the yen’s depreciation has a significant effect on prices. Ueda stated his readiness to tighten policy, saying that if inflation was higher than expected, it would be appropriate to adjust interest rates. Ueda’s remarks may be an attempt to provide the yen with a boost by sending a message that further rate hikes are on the table if inflation moves higher. Finance Minister Suzuki expressed “strong concern” over the weak yen and warned that he was ready to intervene to boost the yen. It seems questionable whether the warning will have much effect. The yen posted strong gains last week after suspected interventions but has already coughed up close to half of those gains. Barring another intervention, the yen could be on its way back to the 160 level. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 155.35. Above, there is resistance at 155.91 There is support at 155.01 and 154.43
by OANDA
$HYG will get a boost this summer when rates are cut due to BOJI see the BOJ dumping treasuries this summer, which'll force down the USDJPY pair, and increase inflation here at home. When rates go down, borrowing money is easier, especially for junk corporations avoiding default due to decades high interest rates. Could AMEX:HYG fall back into the box one last time? Absolutely, if the dollar ticks higher after FED hawkishness. But then, AMEX:HYG will catapult. When HYG is ready I'll give out some options plays to capitalize on the bullish trend.
AMEX:HYGLong
by EmptyEternity
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Analysis: Caution on Strong Bullish RallyUSDJPY is on a strong bullish rally, mainly due to the weakening of the Japanese yen. If you decide to chase the bull, beware of getting caught in the act. That's because the Japanese Yen has reached the BOJ intervention zone. I think the real worry comes in when the market strikes the 161.93 to 163.26 range, and the intervention would be imminent. Without any intervention for the next 1 to 2 weeks, I will call the Bluff on BOJ. Stay away from this pair if you are not a Forex Trading veteran.
Long
by RaynLim