Get started

Boj

USDJPY: The question is what with FED and interest rate?USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long. After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD. But there is a new situation one should keep in mind. Macro economic datas from US are not as good as one could think. Which means that if FED is obliged to continue low interest rate, and with BoJ putting an end to its monetary easing policy, USD could loose ground against the YEN. Therefore if FED is keeping it's Tappering policy and announce that they will care about an eventual inflation risk, USD will win against YEN and we can then go further up, if not, it will be the other way around toward 97.
by Pashabxl
Black swan events: How currencies react - YenApologies for the ominous chart title on a Monday morning, but having spent the weekend watching a few documentaries about the Japan earthquake, I was intrigued on how the currency markets react to black swan events. The Story (Japan Earthquake - Yen) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Tohoku earthquake hits Japan on 11th March. What we see is a sell off in USDJPY... In other words, people were selling USD to buy the Yen. Goes to show how strongly the markets believe in the Yen as a safe haven even if crisis comes to Japan. After a sharp drop, G7 central banks intervene in the markets to offer support. So they start buying USD and selling Yen, which forms an interim rally. On 04/07 BoJ announces a stimulus package, which triggers another sell off in the markets. Few days later, Fukushima nuclear alert is given which sparks a continuation of the sell off. This time it breaks the CB's support as well. I could go on but follow the notes on the chart backed up by the news sources that explains the currency moves. PS: For all those ECB QE addicts, I stumbled upon a very nice article which is worth reading and could possibly shed light on how European QE could work: Source: yhoo.it PPS: The chart is incomplete... There's just too much happening when it comes to the Yen.
Education
by justatrader
5
USDJPYIn my view, political agenda , economic agenda and the behaviour of EURO against USD will give the direction and the impetus for USDJPY. On a purely mechanical point of view, BoJ is still printing a huge amount of Yen comparing to the calendar of FED where Yellen is still sticking to the tapering. On the Other hand, ECB President Draghi, will make his statement on June4th with regard the futur policy of ECB on LTRO, ABS, EURUSD parity etc. Therefore, the move and the direction is pending to political statement. Having said that, the H4 charts shows some signal with regard a very early stage of a possible reversal, i.e STOCH have given the initial signal, then MA6 has start to cross up MA9, but it is too early. We need to see other sign of confirmation, I.E MACD, RSI, as well as at least MA6 crossing M16 and M50 with a confirmed CCI move up to think that 101.5 is a serious support for an initial move upward. 101.7-102 would be the catalysis of the move.
by Pashabxl
#Yen At Significant Support | #Nikkei $JPY $USD #forex #BOJ $YenFriends, As indicated in recent predictive/forecasting model commentary, USD has gained strength. Applying a EW model, one might appreciate a supportive argument for the proposed bullish bias of the predictive/forecasting model. Fundamentals also suggest strengthening of the greenback against a continued dilutive monetary policy. Net outlook is BULLISH for the $Yen. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting -------------------------------- Get my signals, forecasts analyses via Twitter: @4xForecasting Discuss charts in my new chat room in TradingView.com --------------------------------
Long
by 4xForecaster
26
Fundamental Bears Before Technical Bulls | $USD $JPY #BOJ #ForexFriends, As the stock market is turning increasingly wary and talk of a market crash abound, other risk aversion behaviors have transpired through Forex pairs. Here, in particular, USDJPY fell significantly, keeping lower supports exposed. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING DATA: Predictive analysis and forecasting system remains bearish in the short-tern, but bullish to neutral in the longer-term, suggesting a nearing of support. Defined ranges are: 1 - 101.198, high-probability hit 2 - 101.010, moderate probability hit 3 - 100.816, low-probability hit. PROP PATTERN FORECAST DATA: A separate proprietary pattern has defined support at 100.944, thus concentrating a PRZ in the lower end of the predictive analysis and forecast. FUNDAMENTAL DATA: A lower drift in the pair without BOJ intervention is foreseeable for the time being, as Kuroda has opted for a watchful stance with no rate change for the time being. The historical tax hike impact on consumer behavior will require time to absorb the data, which is expected to be bearish. However, fundamental opinion is that a Japanese intervention in rate or bond purchase action won't happen until a critical mass of fundamental data justify it - Here is a good read on this from Mr. Ashraf Laidi: - www.cityindex.co.uk Weighed against a slow improvement in US economic data, the net outcome is expected to be supportive of a rally. OVERALL: For the time being, my predictive analysis/forecasting system calls for further downside, defined at a shallow distance from Friday's close. Fundamental data lends support to a rallying over the next several weeks, based on a relative improvement in the US employment, as well as a probable intervention of sort from BOJ, as the historical tax hike is likely to further deteriorate the consumer side, while the Japanese economy might turn to export facilitation through an easing intervention that would turn its currency value more palatable to foreign consumers. One might also consider a prior discussion on reflexive support of the USD, as China's Yuan continues to fall, pressing other export-dependent competitors to adjust their currencies downwards as well. But this currency down-push can only occur by reflexively up-pulling the Dollar lever. Or is there another liquid reserve currency available? - Answer is: No. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis and Forecasting Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter: (Alias: @4xForecaster) ------------------------------------- Disclaimer: - All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
by 4xForecaster