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$HYG will get a boost this summer when rates are cut due to BOJI see the BOJ dumping treasuries this summer, which'll force down the USDJPY pair, and increase inflation here at home. When rates go down, borrowing money is easier, especially for junk corporations avoiding default due to decades high interest rates. Could AMEX:HYG fall back into the box one last time? Absolutely, if the dollar ticks higher after FED hawkishness. But then, AMEX:HYG will catapult. When HYG is ready I'll give out some options plays to capitalize on the bullish trend.
AMEX:HYGLong
by EmptyEternity
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Analysis: Caution on Strong Bullish RallyUSDJPY is on a strong bullish rally, mainly due to the weakening of the Japanese yen. If you decide to chase the bull, beware of getting caught in the act. That's because the Japanese Yen has reached the BOJ intervention zone. I think the real worry comes in when the market strikes the 161.93 to 163.26 range, and the intervention would be imminent. Without any intervention for the next 1 to 2 weeks, I will call the Bluff on BOJ. Stay away from this pair if you are not a Forex Trading veteran.
Long
by RaynLim
USDJPY | MT Short H4 | Riding on BOJ InterventionPair: FX:USDJPY Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT) Direction: Short Technical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames - Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line - Price is close to 61.8% Fib Extension Level - Aiming for the 32.8% Fibo Retracement with 23.6% as the TP 1 level Fundamental Confluences for Trade: - Dividend repatriation season for Japan where MNCs bring back USD dividends and converts them to JPY - These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness - Yield differential between USA and Japan cannot be denied and dovish BOJ doesn't help much; hence the weak JPY unless we see a firmer BOJ - Further war escalation from the Israel-Iran tension may bring on risk-off moves and see the JPY strengthen Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 154.00 - 155.15 SL @ 156.56 TP 1 @ 151.30 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 149.27 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 3.03 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY volatile after inflation, BoJ meetingThe Japanese yen is swinging sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.46, up 0.52%. It has been a busy Friday in Japan. Japanese inflation data, which was released just before the end of the Bank of Japan meeting, was much lower than expected. Tokyo Core CPI, which was overshadowed by the Bank of Japan’s meeting today, eased to 1.6% y/y in April, well below the market consensus of 2.2% and the March reading of 2.4%. This was the lowest level since March 2022. Tokyo core-core CPI, which excludes fresh food and fuel, slipped to 1.6% y/y in April, down from 2.4% in March and well below the market consensus of 2.7%. This was the lowest pace of inflation since September 2022. Core inflation is still running above the BoJ’s 2% target, but the Tokyo inflation data raises the question of whether domestic demand and wage growth will increase sufficiently to keep inflation sustainable at the 2% level. Governor Ueda has stated that the service inflation will be a key factor in determining the next rate hike. At today’s BoJ policy meeting, policy makers maintained the benchmark rate at 0%-0.1% and said they would maintain an accommodative policy “for the time being”. The rate statement did not address the yen, but Governor Ueda issued a warning at his press conference, saying, if yen moves have an effect on the economy and prices that is hard to ignore, it could be a reason to adjust policy”. The BoJ also raised its outlook for inflation in fiscal 2024 to between 2.5% and 3%, up from 2.2% to 2.5% in the January forecast. At the same time, it downgraded growth projections for fiscal 2024 to between 0.7% to 1%, down from 1% to 1.2% in January. USD/JPY tested resistance at 155.96 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 157.13 There is support at 154.13 and 153.47
by OANDA
Strifor || USDJPY-BoJ MeetingPreferred direction: SELL Comment: The main event of the week is just around the corner. At the end of this week there will be a meeting of the Bank of Japan, where the interest rate will be decided, and most importantly, the immediate prospects for monetary policy will be announced. A large number of market participants expect intervention from the Bank of Japan against the backdrop of a weakened yen , which should strengthen the Japanese currency, especially against the US dollar. On Thursday, the USDJPY currency pair recorded a new high this year, breaking last year's high a month ago. The current aggressive growth is most likely related to the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan , and the price of the instrument is simply being increased to confuse market participants. Against this background, we continue to adhere to the selling priority, according to which the main scenario №1 assumes a fall from current prices. But the likelihood of increased volatility is high, especially during a meeting of the Japanese central bank, so scenario №2 is also in our arsenal. We set the downside target at 153.222 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Levels discussed on livestream 26th April26th April DXY: Consolidate along 105.60, could retest 106, but likely to range between 105.60 and 106 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5945 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6550 SL 30 TP 60 USDJPY: Watch for 157, could scalp up to 158 Sell Stop in place, in case of intervention GBPUSD: Sell 1.2520 SL 30 TP 90 EURUSD: Buy 1.0760 SL 40 TP 100 (hesitation at 1.0815) USDCHF: Sell 0.9115 SL 20 TP 50 USDCAD: Look for reaction at 1.3610 Gold: Continue trading higher to 2360 (61.8%)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Update from the BoJ decision todaySince January 2023, the USDJPY has been on an astronomic rise, driven by the significant divergence between FOMC and BoJ monetary policies. The initial market expectation was for the BoJ to intervene when the USDJPY approaches the 155 price level. Today the Yen has come under fresh selling pressure, as the BoJ kept rates on hold, taking the USDJPY above 156. Could 158 at the top of the channel be the next target intervention level? From the BoJ today Kept rates on Hold No comments about an intervention Yen continues to weaken with USDJPY climbing above 156
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meetingThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It is expected to drop to 2.2% in April, down from 2.4% in March. The Tokyo core-core rate, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to fall, from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The March reading marked the first time that the core-core rate fell below 3% since November 2022. Inflation played a key factor in the Bank of Japan’s historic decision in March to raise interest rates out of negative territory. The BoJ wants to see service inflation and wage growth to rise in order to ensure that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday as the Japanese yen continues to lose ground. The yen has lost about 10.4% against the US dollar in 2024 and this sharp descent in such a short period has set off alarm bells in Tokyo. The BoJ’s tightening in March hasn’t stopped the bleeding, as the BoJ has said that it will maintain an accommodative policy and the US/Japan rate differential remains hasn’t narrowed as the Fed has delayed rate cuts. BOJ expected to stand pat The BoJ is expected to maintain policy settings at the meeting but Governor Ueda may sound hawkish in order to provide some support for the yen. The meeting could turn out to be a non-event but the threat of intervention from the Ministry of Finance is sure to be on the minds of investors. The US releases the initial estimate for GDP for the first quarter. The market estimate stands at 2.5% y/y, compared to 3.4% in Q4 2023. The US economy has been robust and rising inflation has not only delayed rate cuts but there is even talk that the Fed could raise rates in order to put the brakes on inflation. USD/JPY tested support at 155.30 earlier. Below, there is support at 154.13 There is resistance at 155.96 and 157.13
by OANDA
Sights Set HIGH for EURJPY?!Here I have EURJPY on the Daily Chart! Currently you can see price back up at the Resistance Area of ( 164.3 - 165.3 ) after having tested the Rising Support 4 times with each time successfully having Strong Bullish reactions ... this Price Action has formed what looks to me to be a Bullish Triangle Pattern! Fundamentally, there's a lot to unpack but with JPY trading down at its 34 Yr Lows and the ECB looking at Rate Cuts soon .. Fundamentals could play a key sticky role! - EUR has their Final CPI and Final Core CPI y/y tomorrow morning followed by Lagarde Speaking so lets see how things begin to play out!! Technically, with this potential Bullish Triangle we are looking for continuation of this markets trend prior to entering this pattern! Back in Dec. '23, price made quite a Bullish Recovery off the 200 EMA and has shown great Bullish Momentum thus far! *If Price gives a solid Break and Close ABOVE the Resistance Area, this could give us a good area of potential Buy Entries -Beware of FALSE BREAKS!! *If Price Breaks and Closes BELOW the Rising Support, I'm no longer interested in looking for Buying Opportunities!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
USD/JPY looks set for 155 - but will the BOJ allow a breakout?At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today. The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little choice by to at least try and retest 155. Prices are now consolidating after a mild pullback, RSI (2) is nearing oversold during an uptrend and the daily pivot point is nearby for dip buyers to consider longs. Should momentum turn higher from here, bulls could simply target 155. As for how it behaves if it meets that level remains to be seen. Yet prior attempts at key levels usually sees momentum either slow down ahead of it, or a volatile breakout is followed by a shakeout before prices revert beneath the key level. The only exception in recent history was IS CPI data which saw prices smash through 152 with apparent ease. But today we suspect market forces alone can drive prices higher without US data. The question remains as to whether the BOJ will remain quiet and allow the rally to flourish further.
Long
by CityIndex
BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday. Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages. A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end. Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level. While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Bias Despite Market Volatility- Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias - Weekly Chart Analysis: Violation of Recent Resistance Indicates Strength - Trade Plan: Buying Opportunities Favored over Shorting Analysis: - Market Sentiment: Maintains Bullish Bias on US Dollar, despite market volatility - Weekly Chart Analysis: Notable violation of recent resistance level on the USDJPY Weekly chart - Implications: Market speculation regarding potential BOJ intervention in FX Market - Trade Plan: Prefers buying opportunities over shorting due to pair's independent behavior Trade Plan: - Buying Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities at support levels (e.g., 154.27, 154.12, 153.89) - Support and Resistance Trading: Shorting opportunity at 154.70 on the 1-hourly chart, although not actively pursued Insights: Maintaining a bullish bias on USDJPY despite market volatility, with a focus on buying opportunities over shorting. Preference for buying entries at support levels, while remaining cautious of resistance levels for potential shorting opportunities. Exercise caution and adaptability in response to the pair's independent behavior. 📈📉 Remain vigilant and adaptable in navigating the USDJPY market, prioritizing risk management and flexibility in trade execution!
Long
by RaynLim
USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI easesThe Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down from 2.8% in February but higher than the market estimate of 2.7%. Core CPI has now exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 24 consecutive months. The deceleration was driven by a decrease in food inflation but the yen’s weakness prevented a sharper drop in inflation. The “core-core” CPI reading, which excludes fresh food and energy, dropped from 3.2% to 2.9% in March, below the forecast of 3%. This marked the first time that the index has fallen below 3% since November 2022. While consumer inflation continues to slow, the Bank of Japan is more focused on services inflation, as it believes that services inflation together with higher wage growth are the recipe to ensuring that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target. The yen is down almost 10% since the start of the year and the sharp depreciation in such a short period has Tokyo concerned. The Ministry of Finance last intervened in the currency markets in late 2022 when the yen traded around 152. With the yen falling this week to 154.78, a 34-year old low, the markets are on alert for the possibility of another intervention. The weak yen could also have a significant impact on rate policy. On Thursday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank might raise interest rates again if the yen’s decline led to a significant rise in inflation. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative policy in March but the yen has weakened since then. USD/JPY tested resistance at 154.43 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 154.71 There is support at 154.11 and 153.83
by OANDA
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness. Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Japan Currency Crash After Rate Hike - Inflation cycle begin A brand-new cycle for the Japanese economy is in the making with a higher inflation to come and a weaker yen. When the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years, the Japanese Yen instead of strengthening, it crashed. Micro Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: MJY Minimum fluctuation: 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25 Japanese Yen Futures & Options Ticker: 6J Minimum fluctuation: 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:JPIRYYShort
by konhow
EURJPY's Upward Momentum and Opportunities AheadThe EURJPY pair has shown promising strength after a corrective phase from its peak on March 21, 2024. Today, it successfully breached a significant resistance level at 163.322, providing a stronger confirmation of the existing bullish momentum. With this noteworthy breakout, the allure of a Long position becomes increasingly compelling. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour timeframe, EURJPY is currently trading above several key moving averages, including the SMA 7, SMA 24, and SMA 150. This indicates clear bullish strength, especially after a prolonged correction period. The breakout from the resistance level at 163.322 adds confidence to further bullish momentum, with technical indicators suggesting potential for higher moves. Fundamental Insights (JPY): Despite the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rate policy, BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated the commitment to continue purchasing Japan Bonds and refrain from raising interest rates. This monetary policy stance has triggered sustained weakness in the Japanese yen, evident from its recent depreciation. With supportive fundamental conditions, yen weakness adds impetus for the EURJPY pair to continue its bullish trend. Trade Targets: - Target 1: 164.414 - Target 2: 165.380 - Target 3: 167.252 These targets are calculated using Fibonacci ratios, with Target 3 reaching approximately 140% of the previous rally and the historical resistance. Each target offers potential for significant gains for traders entering Long positions. Risks to Consider: - Sudden shifts in market sentiment or unforeseen fundamental developments may impact the direction of EURJPY movements. - Market volatility and the possibility of retracement during the journey towards the take profit targets should be duly noted. With a strong confirmation of bullish breakout and support from both technical and fundamental analyses, Long positions in EURJPY present enticing profit opportunities. However, it is essential to remain vigilant of risks and manage them prudently with every trade executed.
Long
by fardycurry