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BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday. Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages. A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end. Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level. While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Bias Despite Market Volatility- Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias - Weekly Chart Analysis: Violation of Recent Resistance Indicates Strength - Trade Plan: Buying Opportunities Favored over Shorting Analysis: - Market Sentiment: Maintains Bullish Bias on US Dollar, despite market volatility - Weekly Chart Analysis: Notable violation of recent resistance level on the USDJPY Weekly chart - Implications: Market speculation regarding potential BOJ intervention in FX Market - Trade Plan: Prefers buying opportunities over shorting due to pair's independent behavior Trade Plan: - Buying Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities at support levels (e.g., 154.27, 154.12, 153.89) - Support and Resistance Trading: Shorting opportunity at 154.70 on the 1-hourly chart, although not actively pursued Insights: Maintaining a bullish bias on USDJPY despite market volatility, with a focus on buying opportunities over shorting. Preference for buying entries at support levels, while remaining cautious of resistance levels for potential shorting opportunities. Exercise caution and adaptability in response to the pair's independent behavior. 📈📉 Remain vigilant and adaptable in navigating the USDJPY market, prioritizing risk management and flexibility in trade execution!
Long
by RaynLim
USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI easesThe Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down from 2.8% in February but higher than the market estimate of 2.7%. Core CPI has now exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 24 consecutive months. The deceleration was driven by a decrease in food inflation but the yen’s weakness prevented a sharper drop in inflation. The “core-core” CPI reading, which excludes fresh food and energy, dropped from 3.2% to 2.9% in March, below the forecast of 3%. This marked the first time that the index has fallen below 3% since November 2022. While consumer inflation continues to slow, the Bank of Japan is more focused on services inflation, as it believes that services inflation together with higher wage growth are the recipe to ensuring that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target. The yen is down almost 10% since the start of the year and the sharp depreciation in such a short period has Tokyo concerned. The Ministry of Finance last intervened in the currency markets in late 2022 when the yen traded around 152. With the yen falling this week to 154.78, a 34-year old low, the markets are on alert for the possibility of another intervention. The weak yen could also have a significant impact on rate policy. On Thursday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank might raise interest rates again if the yen’s decline led to a significant rise in inflation. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative policy in March but the yen has weakened since then. USD/JPY tested resistance at 154.43 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 154.71 There is support at 154.11 and 153.83
by OANDA
How much higher can the USDJPY go?Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese Yen continuing to show signs of weakness. Could 155 be the next target price level for an intervention?
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Japan Currency Crash After Rate Hike - Inflation cycle begin A brand-new cycle for the Japanese economy is in the making with a higher inflation to come and a weaker yen. When the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years, the Japanese Yen instead of strengthening, it crashed. Micro Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: MJY Minimum fluctuation: 0.000001 per JPY increment = $1.25 Japanese Yen Futures & Options Ticker: 6J Minimum fluctuation: 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:JPIRYYShort
by konhow
EURJPY's Upward Momentum and Opportunities AheadThe EURJPY pair has shown promising strength after a corrective phase from its peak on March 21, 2024. Today, it successfully breached a significant resistance level at 163.322, providing a stronger confirmation of the existing bullish momentum. With this noteworthy breakout, the allure of a Long position becomes increasingly compelling. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour timeframe, EURJPY is currently trading above several key moving averages, including the SMA 7, SMA 24, and SMA 150. This indicates clear bullish strength, especially after a prolonged correction period. The breakout from the resistance level at 163.322 adds confidence to further bullish momentum, with technical indicators suggesting potential for higher moves. Fundamental Insights (JPY): Despite the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rate policy, BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated the commitment to continue purchasing Japan Bonds and refrain from raising interest rates. This monetary policy stance has triggered sustained weakness in the Japanese yen, evident from its recent depreciation. With supportive fundamental conditions, yen weakness adds impetus for the EURJPY pair to continue its bullish trend. Trade Targets: - Target 1: 164.414 - Target 2: 165.380 - Target 3: 167.252 These targets are calculated using Fibonacci ratios, with Target 3 reaching approximately 140% of the previous rally and the historical resistance. Each target offers potential for significant gains for traders entering Long positions. Risks to Consider: - Sudden shifts in market sentiment or unforeseen fundamental developments may impact the direction of EURJPY movements. - Market volatility and the possibility of retracement during the journey towards the take profit targets should be duly noted. With a strong confirmation of bullish breakout and support from both technical and fundamental analyses, Long positions in EURJPY present enticing profit opportunities. However, it is essential to remain vigilant of risks and manage them prudently with every trade executed.
Long
by fardycurry
USD/JPY slides to lowest level since 1990The Japanese yen has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.17, down 0.26%. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2007. The move marked a sea-change in monetary policy. However, the tightening has not translated into gains for the Japanese yen, which remains under pressure. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 151.97, its lowest level since 1990. Will the yen’s slide trigger a currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance? The MOF intervened last October when the yen dropped to 151.94, which means we are clearly within “intervention territory”. The MOF’s response to the current decline, however, has been limited to verbal intervention. On Monday, as the top currency diplomat,  Masato Kanda, sent a warning to speculators that he was concerned by the yen’s slide, saying it did not reflect fundamentals. Earlier today, Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned that excessive movement by the yen would be answered with “decisive steps”. Japanese officials have limited their response to the yen’s woes with jawboning but the risk of intervention is very real and will increase if the yen continues to lose ground. Still, it should be noted that last year’s interventions didn’t really get the job done, as yen gains were short-lived. The lack of certainty as to whether Tokyo will intervene to prop up the yen could result in volatility for USD/JPY and investors will be listening carefully to every comment coming out of the BoJ or the MOF. USD/JPY remains range-bound on the weekly chart: 152.58 and 153.70 are the next resistance lines\ There is support at 150.74 and 149.62
by OANDA
Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention. The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar. But have the intervention goal posts moved? Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20. Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY shrugs after BoJ core inflation dipsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.36, down 0.03%. Bank of Japan core inflation fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.6% in January and shy of the market estimate of 2.5%. The release further complicates the inflation picture in Japan, as we continue to see inflation indicators heading in all directions. The BoJ core inflation index eased in February ,while the services producer price index climbed 2.1%, unchanged from January. The BoJ made a massive pivot last week as it raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. The central bank is counting on rising service inflation replacing cost-push inflation as the main driver of inflation, which it expects will make inflation sustainable around the 2% target. The shift in monetary policy has not translated into a win for the yen, which is above the 151 line. There is the threat of currency intervention, as Tokyo intervened last September and October when USD/JPY rose above 152. Japanese officials are trying to jawbone the yen higher before resorting to intervention, with Japan’s top currency diplomat sending a warning on Monday to speculators from trying to sell of the yen, saying the currency’s recent slide did not reflect fundamentals. In the US, it was a mixed day. Durable goods recovered in February with a gain of 1.4% m/m in February. This followed a 6.9% slide in January and beat the market estimate of 1.1%. The Conference Board consumer confidence index was almost unchanged at 104.7 in February, compared to 104.8 a month earlier. This was shy of the market estimate of 107. USD/JPY tested support earlier at 151.35. Below, there is support at 151.13 151.64 and 151.86 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY drifting at start of weekThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%. Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. The move did not catch the markets completely by surprise, as some media reports ahead of the meeting said the BoJ would raise rates and investors were looking at both the March and April meetings as strong possibilities for a rate hike. The yen did not respond to the rate hike with gains, as might have been expected. There are several reasons for this. First, the actual tightening was limited, with rates rising from -0.10% to 0.10%. This means that although the BoJ rate is now in positive territory, the move had little impact on the wide USD/JPY rate differential. BoJ Governor Ueda said after the meeting that despite the hike, monetary policy would remain accommodative, saying that there was “some distance to go” until inflation climbs to the 2% target. As well, many investors approached the BoJ meeting with a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” approach and this resulted in heavy selling of the yen after the rate announcement. The yen slipped 1.60% last week and dropped as low as 151.86, its lowest level since November 2023. The Japanese yen has dropped to levels that could invite intervention - the Ministry of Finance intervened last September and October when the yen dropped to around the 152 line. If the yen continues to lose ground, the threat of intervention will become greater. In the US, the markets have priced in three rate cuts this year, and the Fed also projected three cuts this year at last week’s meeting. However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic sounded hawkish on Friday when he said that he expects only one quarter-point cut this year. Bostic said that he was “definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to drop towards the 2% target, as he noted that inflation remains stubbornly high and the US economy has been more resilient than he expected. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 151.44. Above, there is resistance at 151.88 151.02 and 15058 are providing support
by OANDA
$JPIRYY -CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY Japan Inflation Rate Lowest in A Year The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.0% in September 2023 from 3.2% in August, pointing to the lowest reading since September 2022. Meantime, core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%, slightly above market consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month. Core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%, slightly above consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, after a 0.2% gain in August. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
BoJ Hikes Rates, the first time in 17 years!Yesterday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its decision to end eight years of negative interest rates, adjusting the short-term policy rate to around 0.00% to 0.10%. Although an interest rate hike is supposed to lead to the currency strengthening, the Yen weakened following the release of the news, with the USDJPY climbing higher from 149.40 toward the resistance level of 151. The BoJ also indicated that while it will scrap its YCC framework (upper bound of 1% on 10-year JGBs) it will continue to buy some Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), maintaining a Quantitative Easing (QE) approach, hence keeping some aspect of the accommodative policy. Markets anticipate that this could be a one off adjustment, and the BoJ is unlikely to follow yesterday's rate decision with a series of rate hikes. This could be considered as a Dovish rate hike. The divergence in monetary policies between the BoJ and the FOMC (and other major central banks) continues, which is likely the cause of the continued weakness of the Yen. Today, the Yen has continued to weaken, with the USDJPY breaking above the round number resistance of 151, and is likely to retest the historic high of 151.90, last reached in November 2023. Attention now shifts toward the FOMC.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/JPY H4 | Could the BoJ finally raise interest rates today?EUR/JPY could fall towards a potential breakout level and drop lower from here should we see the BoJ finally raises interest rates today (19th March). Sell entry is at 161.877 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 162.800 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 160.380 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY soars as BoJ scraps negative ratesThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.67, up 1.02%. The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007 at today’s meeting and also abolished the yield control curve to target interest rate at specific levels. There was a strong possibility that the BoJ might wait until April to tighten policy, but the fact that the BoJ did not deny media reports that the central bank would act today meant that the markets were not shocked that the move occurred today. Interestingly, the yen has nosedived despite the BoJ tightening policy. This can be explained by the fact that the BoJ may have ended negative rates but the move was small, as rates have risen from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. This means that today’s rate hike did little to narrow the US/Japan interest rate differential. The BoJ’s announcement made huge headlines but at the end of the day the central bank kept a dovish tone, which also weighed on the yen. Governor Ueda stressed that the BoJ’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even with the end of negative rates. Ueda noted that “there is still some distance to 2%, which would require maintaining an accommodative policy”. This means that the BoJ will not be entering a tightening cycle with a series of hikes as we’ve seen with the other major central banks in their battle to tame inflation. In the US, it’s a very light week, with no tier-1 events on the data calendar. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is virtually certain to maintain the benchmark rate of 5%-5.25%, and investors will be combing the rate statement for any insights about a date for an initial rate cut. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 149.98, which was protecting the 150 line. Above, there is resistance at 150.92 148.24 and 147.30 are providing support
by OANDA
Levels discussed on Livestream March 19th DXY: Consolidate along 103.80, with continuation to upside to 104.30 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6065 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6535 SL 20 TP 55 USDJPY: Complete retracement, Break above resistance, Buy 150.95 SL 30 TP 90 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2685 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 20 TP 50 USDCHF: Buy 0.8905 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Test and bounce off support Buy 0.13555 SL 20 TP 60 Gold: Below 2145 could trade down to 2125 (DXY strength dependent)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Post-BOJToday's focus: GBPJPY Pattern – Continuation/resistance test? Support – 188.20 Resistance – 191.15 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the GBPJPY daily. The BOJ lifted rates today to 0.10%, breaking the run of negative rates and showing a change in direction not seen since 2007. The BOJ also advised an end to yield curve control and ETF purchases. This had a negative effect on the JPY and sent majors higher. The GBPJPY has added up to 0.73% in today's session and has come close to testing resistance. We want to see a break of resistance to show a new continuation higher. A stall at resistance could set up a new move lower. If we see a new move to 190 and above, could we see the BOJ step in? Good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
Analysis of RBA, BOJ, FOMC, SNB, BOE and the week aheadWeek of the 18th March (H4) DXY: Stay below 50% (103.70) to maintain bearish view, could trade down to 102.40 support NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 30 TP 100 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6580 SL 40 TP 80 (Tuesday: RBA Decision) USDJPY: Riskier: Sell 148.50 SL 80 TP 200 (Tuesday: BOJ Policy Decision) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2760 SL 50 TP 100 (Thursday:BOE Voting) EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 30 TP 60 (If DXY strengthens) USDCHF: Sell 0.8860 SL 35 TP 105 (Thursday: SNB decision) USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 30 TP 13 (Tuesday: CPI data) Gold: Bounce off 2150 to retest high of 2200
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
BOJ to deliver 1st hike in 17 years tomorrow? There is possibly no bigger trading event this week than the Bank of Japan’s decision on Monday. The groundwork for abandoning negative interest rates has been subtly laid since last year, and now, this could very well be the month they choose to make their move. The prospect of ending a policy entrenched for nearly two decades could significantly move the USDJPY. The catalyzing force for the BoJ to end negative interest rates are the substantial wage hikes big corporations and their labor unions agreed on this year. On Friday, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the country's largest labor organization, disclosed that this year's annual wage negotiations produced remarkable outcomes. Major corporations witnessed an average hike of 5.28%, the largest wage increase in 33 years. Because of this, The Bank of Japan could be thinking that the current economic climate is OK for sustaining a stable 2% inflation rate in an environment without negative interest rates. Even in the eventuality of the negative rate policy ceasing, Governor Ueda has emphasized the continuity of accommodative monetary conditions. The BOJ will likely keep interest rates at zero percent. So, watch out for overreactions to this news too, and corrective moves in Yen pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Currency most likely to rebound against USD next week? Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision possibly just got a lot more interesting. Last night we got PPI data. In February, the producer price index, a key gauge of wholesale inflation, surged by 0.6%, surpassing expectations by more than double. The big question now is whether traders will reassess their expectations for the timing of a Fed rate cut. Currently, the market is pricing in less than a 15% chance of a rate cut in May and a 60% likelihood in June. This PPI report marks the final significant economic data released before the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy meeting scheduled for March 19-20. The USD dollar knocked back all its pairs after the PPI announcement. But which pairs are likely to stage a comeback? The Japanese yen is possibly one of the best prospects in this regard. Traders will be looking for serious talk on Monday about the Bank of Japan ending it decades of extremely low-interest rates (or God-forbid an actual rate hike). The BoJ's Interest Rate Decision is slated for 11 pm on Monday. Next week, we will also see the release of inflation data from Canada and the UK, adding potential volatility to USDCAD and GBPUSD pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
CHFJPY: Is the high in?Starting to see Yen strength materialise, with the BoJ looking to get out of the current cycle. Surely Yen can't go much lower against all of the G10, so expecting some moves in the coming week. We've been failing at the 171.8 high for weeks so this looks like consolidation to me now, ready for a push down. Starting this week with the CHF PCI data this Tuesday, expecting to start seeing signs of cuts from the SNB so this could be a cross that moves.
Short
by Finchcliffe