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USDJPY: Thoughts and Analysis (Pattern discussion)Today's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Consolidation (Bullish?) Support – 149.84 Resistance – 150.81, 151.745 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDJPY on the daily chart. Simple story today: will the current price consolidation break higher (with trend) or break lower, setting off distribution? We find it's important to break down patterns in the process and not just after they confirm or start to confirm so you can map out an action plan depending on what happens next with price. Due to the situation with the BOJ, moves higher could set off intervention worries, and we also have Fed testimony and NFP this week for the USD. Good trading.
by Eightcap
Japanese yen steady ahead of Tokyo Core CPIThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.34, up 0.13%. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, considered the most important inflation indicator, on Tuesday. The index fell to 1.6% y/y in January, below expectations and the lowest rate since May 2022, but the market estimate for February stands at 2.5%. Inflation remains a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it mulls exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy. According to a report on the weekend, the government is considering announcing an official end to deflation. This would be a symbolic move but would likely be viewed by the markets as another signal that Tokyo is planning to remove negative interest rates in the next several months. After years of an ultra-accommodative policy, such a move would mark a sea-change for the Bank of Japan and would likely give a strong boost to the ailing Japanese currency. On Thursday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said that the BoJ must overhaul is ultra-loose monetary policy, including an end to negative rates and removing bond yield control. Takata added that the BoJ was “seeing prospects of achieving our 2% inflation target”. The initial results of Japan’s annual wage negotiations will be released on March 15th, followed by the BoJ meeting on March 19. The wage talks are expected to result in workers receiving higher wages, which will likely result in higher inflation. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any policy changes at the March meeting, with April or June the likely dates for a major announcement. There is resistance at 150.90 at 151.69 150.05 and 149.26 are providing support
by OANDA
CADJPY: Next stop the monthly falling trendline?There's not much in the way of this move from what I can see. Yen continues to be the weakest currency in the G10 (for now, BoJ look set to intervene at some point this year) and for the short term I expect this to continue to meet the descending long-term trendline that's formed. I'll be looking for sells around 115 with any LTF confirmation, but until then I'm going to be doing some long scalps not that local resistance has been broken and retested.
Long
by Finchcliffe
JPY Pairs at Key Resistance Overview Most Yen pairs are at or nearing key resistance on daily, weekly, and monthly time-frames. The Details The Yen continues to weaken against global currencies due to negative interest rates set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and higher interest rates from the RBA, RBNZ, ECB, BOE, SNB, FED, etc. The BOJ are edging closer to changing rates to zero or positive. This could strengthen the Yen, or at least stabilise the JPY selling. The BOJ may intervene in the FX rate if JPY continues to weaken further, meaning possible JPY bullish volatility. The Technicals AUDJPY at weekly horizontal channel resistance CHFJPY at monthly bullish channel resistance GBPJPY nearing monthly horizontal resistance NZDJPY at monthly horizontal resistance SGDJPY at daily horizontal resistance and nearing previous daily trend support as resistance USDJPY around weekly horizontal resistance
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
GBPJPY 18/02/24GJ giving some nice areas for potential moves, mainly i can see we are using the short term lows as a clear area to build up liquid for a deeper retracement, if this move does take place it will shift us back into a bearish swing range as the 5min price action is currently sitting within a bullish range, this range isn't the strongest but is still valid in terms of a short term bias within price. If we do shift bearish il be looking towards the major demand sitting at our last internal low in price, this of course will also act as liq so running this a possibility. always keep in mind higher timeframe bias is only validated with lower timeframe confirms and trade entries, so be sure to always trade with order flow.
by PipSurfingSociety
Yen rises despite GDP contractionThe Japanese yen has improved on Thursday, despite a disappointing GDP report. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.12, down 0.31%. USD/JPY fell as much as 0.70% today but has recovered much of those losses. Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP was a disappointment, declining 0.1% q/q. This missed the market estimate of a 0.3% gains and followed a revised 0.8% decline in Q3. On an annualized basis, GDP fell 0.4%, after sliding 3.3% in the third quarter. The economy has fallen into a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This marked the first time in five years that the economy has tipped into a recession. Japan’s economy has been hit by the double-whammy of weak domestic demand and a sluggish global economy. Japanese consumers have cut down on spending due to relatively high inflation. Japan’s exports have been hurt by lower demand and the slowdown in China is of particular concern, as China is Japan’s largest export market. There was more bad news after reports that Japan’s economy has been overtaken by Germany as the world’s third-largest economy. This displacement is not only a question of loss of prestige but points to structural problems in the Japanese economy, such as an ageing workforce which has lowered productivity. The markets continue to keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan, which has hinted that it will end its negative interest rates later this year, perhaps as early as April. The weak GDP report could delay but won’t derail the BoJ’s plan to tighten policy. USD/JPY tested support lines at 150.08 and 149.80 earlier There is resistance at 150.61 and 150.86
by OANDA
USD/JPY steady after Tokyo Core CPI falls below 2%The Japanese yen is drifting on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.80, up 0.10%. Tokyo Core CPI reached a significant milestone today, falling to 1.6% y/y in January, after a December reading of 2.1%. This was the first time the indicator dropped below the Bank of Japan's 2% target since May 2022. The main driver of the decline was lower energy prices. Tokyo Core CPI excludes fresh food but includes fuel. The Tokyo core-core index, which excludes fresh food and fuel prices, rose 3.1% y/y in January, down from 3.5% in December. The drop in inflation reinforces the BoJ's view that cost pressures are gradually being replaced by rising service prices as the main driver of inflation. This is hugely significant, as it points to inflation being more sustainable, which is a requirement for the BoJ before it tightens its ultra-loose policy. Japan also released corporate service inflation for December which held steady at 2.4%, a nine-year high. That reading underscores that service prices remain high a companies continue to pass on their costs. BoJ Governor Ueda stated at this week's policy meeting that progress is being made towards the target of 2% sustainable inflation, and that has the markets speculating that the BoJ could make a major policy shift in April or June. The BoJ wants to see higher wages as evidence that inflation is sustainable and the national wage negotiations in March are expected to provide higher wages for workers. In the US, the first-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter smashed above expectations, but the US dollar didn't show much interest. GDP growth rose 3.3% y/y, below the 4.9% gain in the third quarter but well above the consensus estimate of 2.0%. The US economy continues to produce stronger-than-expected data and that has the markets paring expectations for a rate cut in March. The probability of a March cut has fallen to 48%, down sharply from 70% one month ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. USD/JPY tested support earlier at 147.54. Below, there is support at 146.63 There is resistance at 148.44 and 149.35
by OANDA
GBP/USD is ready to make a false high before going down!The GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuates in a narrow channel just above 1.2700 on Monday. The rebound of the major pair is supported by a positive risk environment. However, the increasing tension in the Red Sea could increase demand for safe-haven assets and limit the upside potential of the pair. GBP/USD experienced a rebound in the second half of the previous week, erasing a large portion of its weekly losses. However, the short-term technical outlook for the pair has yet to show an accumulation of bullish momentum as it holds steady around 1.2700 in the European morning on Monday. The rally in the U.S. Dollar (USD) exerted bearish pressure on GBP/USD last week. The improved risk sentiment towards the end of the week, as reflected in the significant rally in Wall Street's main indexes, weakened the USD and paved the way for a decisive rebound in the pair. However, investors remain uncertain about the timing of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy shift ahead of key U.S. growth and inflation data this week. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March has decreased from 70% earlier in the month to about 50%. U.S. stock index futures are trading positively in the European session. I expect a strong rally from the short but intense bullish channel that could take the price to the supply zone at 1.2750, bouncing off the downtrend trendline. Currently, the current session is relatively calm, with focus on the BOJ; we will see if they have the courage to raise rates and bring them above zero, I hope so. It requires a shock to the market and, principally, to the yen. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY flat ahead of BoJ announcementThe Japanese yen is in a holding pattern on Monday as the Bank of Japan holds a two-day meeting today and Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 148.05, down 0.08%. The yen has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks. In December, the yen took advantage of a slumping US dollar and surged 4.85%. Those gains have been squandered as the dollar has rebounded in January and jumped 5.1%. On Friday, USD/JPY touched a high of 148.80, its highest level since November 28. The 150 level is not too far away and if the yen continues to lose ground, concerns will mount that the Ministry of Finance could intervene to prop up the yen. The Bank of Japan will wrap up its policy meeting on Tuesday, and any hints of a shift in monetary policy would likely send the yen sharply higher. The markets aren't expecting the central bank to change policy settings, although the BoJ, which isn't known for transparency, has surprised the markets before. The BoJ is expected to abandon negative rates, but Tuesday's meeting doesn't seem to be the right timing. Inflation has been easing and the economy remains fragile. The major earthquake on January 1 has contributed to the markets lowering expectations of a policy shift at this meeting. As well, the national wage negotiations take place in March and the BoJ would prefer to analyse the results of the wage talks before making any policy changes. This would point to the April meeting as being more ripe for a major announcement. Even if the BoJ stays on the sidelines tomorrow, investors will have plenty to digest, including updated inflation reports, quarterly economic projections and Governor Ueda's follow-up press conference. USD/JPY tested resistance at 148.28 earlier. Above, there is support at 148.71 There is support at 147.74 and 147.31
by OANDA
Will Yen Tank to New Lows?The Japanese Yen is one of the worst performing currencies in 2024. It has weakened 5.4% against the USD. Forces have been stacked against Yen ever since the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates at a record pace. In sharp contrast, ultra loose monetary stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resulted in wide policy rate differential of 5% between short-term interest rates in both countries, which has contributed to Yen weakness. The Yen made a recovery in December driven by a dovish Fed and hopes of BoJ exiting its ultra-loose policy in 2024. Yen rose to levels unseen since June 2023. However, thus far in 2024, the Yen has weakened as recent developments have cemented the need to maintain current loose monetary policy in Japan. An Earthquake that struck Japan at the start of the year caused infrastructure damage. Stimulus will be required to fix that. Inflation in Japan is retreating to BoJ’s target range rapidly. Consequently, the central bank may see no rush to start hiking rates given uncertain recovery in economic growth. This paper describes various forces at play and establishes a hypothetical trade setup using CME Japanese Yen futures to harness gains from weakening Yen. BOJ’s MONETARY POLICY MAY STAY LOOSER FOR LONGER 1. Aid for Earthquake Relief: On January 2nd, a severe earthquake hit near Japan's Ishikawa prefecture , causing widespread destruction, damaging over 4,000 homes. The area continues to experience aftershocks, adding to the damage. Moody’s RMS predicts insured losses from the earthquake could be between USD 3 billion and USD 6 billion. In response, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kushida plans to double earthquake relief funds to USD 7 billion in the next fiscal year to aid recovery efforts. Given the economic fallout, the BoJ is likely to maintain its lenient monetary policy in the near future. 2. Cooling CPI: Japan’s most recent CPI figures showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in December from 2.8% in November. That is the lowest reading since July 2022. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, a measure referenced by the BoJ, fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was 3.7% YoY, which was also lower compared to November’s 3.8%. The core CPI reading is just a hair above BoJ’s target range of 2%. Inflation was driven lower by decline (11.6% YoY) in energy costs. The large drop was due to base effects of high energy prices last year. Services inflation remained unchanged at 2.3% fuelled by higher wages. That is positive news for the BoJ which aims to establish sustainable domestic-demand & wage-growth driven inflation. With wage hikes from the Shunto negotiation in March-April still undecided, the BoJ is unlikely to pre-empt the exit from loose policy. Therefore, the next two policy meetings are unlikely to lead to a policy shift. BoJ Policy Meeting calendar ( BoJ ) FED POLICY MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIGHTER FOR LONGER Meanwhile, concerns are plenty in the US too. Inflation rebounded in December. Core inflation remains strong. Robust retail sales suggest consumers are resilient and still spending. Jobs data from December was healthy. Recent jobless claims points to further strength in the labour market. Put together, the Fed will not rush to cut rates as markets expect. This is exemplified by diverging market and Fed expectations for rate path. According to CME FedWatch tool (as of 22/Jan), markets are expecting 5 rate cuts in 2024 while Federal Reserve's dot plot suggested only 3 rate cuts would take place. Both factors, from Japan and the US together, suggest fundamental Yen weakness and these conditions are expected to persist for longer. YEN INTERVENTION WARNING Despite the fundamental weakness, there are risks from betting against further Yen weakening. As the currency weakened rapidly past 148/USD, the Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the government is closely watching developments in the currency markets. He stressed the importance of stability and that market movements should reflect economic fundamentals. Likelihood of intervention remains high and its impact on the Yen has been discussed previously . MARKET METRICS Options market activity points to a contrasting trend. Recent open interest change in CME Group Japanese Yen options have been tilted towards higher calls signalling hopes of Yen strengthening. Overall positioning points to a similar contrary trend. CME Group Japanese Yen options OI change between 11/Jan and 19/Jan ( QuikStrike ) Despite the recent rally, implied volatility has not spiked significantly. They remain well below the highs seen in mid-December around BoJ’s policy meeting. Moreover, options skew remains elevated from its lows observed in late-October when the sentiment around Yen was heavily bearish. CME Japanese Yen options CVOL index and options skew ( CVOL ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The BoJ is unlikely to exit its loose policy stance any time soon against the backdrop of rapidly slowing inflation and uncertain economic outlook. In the US, a rebound in inflation might delay Fed’s rate cut decision. Collectively, this points to fundamental Yen weakness. To limit downside exposure in case of intervention by Japanese officials in currency markets, a tight stop can limit losses. The below hypothetical trade setup suggests a short position in CME Group Japanese Yen futures expiring in March (6JH2024) that provides a 1.55x reward to risk ratio. CME Group Japanese Yen futures have maintenance margin of USD 2,600 and provide exposure to 12,500,000 Yen. • Entry: 0.0068115 • Target: 0.0066000 • Stop Loss: 0.0069500 • Profit at Target: USD 2,643 (68115 – 66000 = 2115 pips x 1.25) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,731 (69500 – 68115 pips = 1385 pips x 1.25) • Reward-to-Risk: 1.55x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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CME:6J1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Levels discussed on livestream 22nd JanJanuary 22nd DXY: Break 103 to trade down to 102.80 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6140 SL 20 TP 45 AUDUSD: Look for reaction at 0.6650 resistance DXY strength; Sell 0.6575 SL 20 TP 50 USDJPY: Buy 148.80 SL 30 TP 90 or Sell 147.50 SL 30 TP 100 (Pending BoJ news event) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2690 SL 20 TP 47 EURUSD: Buy 1.0915 SL 25 TP 70 (Hesitation at 1.0940) USDCHF: Sell 0.87 SL 20 TP 60 USDCAD: Sell 1.3385 SL 25 TP 65 Gold: Stay above 2017 to maintain bullish move to 2040
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
GBPJPY: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-BOJToday's focus: Pattern – Continuation, resistance test. Support – 37,400 Resistance – 187.63 - 184.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Our focus today is on the GBPJPY pre-Bank of Japan. Looking at price, we can see it continues to trade on fast trends higher but has stalled at resistance. The market could now be waiting to see what's next from the Bank of Japan. Will they tweak their bond-buying program? We have seen some solid volatility from past meetings. Could this be another? We have run over two scenarios in today's video, and we will look to see what happens next for the JPY after tomorrow's BOJ meeting. Rates are expected to remain on hold, and the statement and outlook report are expected between 11:30 am and 4 pm on Tuesday this week. Good trading.
by Eightcap
Japanese yen takes a tumbleThe Japanese yen is down sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 145.74, up 0.86%. Japan's wage growth was a major disappointment in November, with a meager gain of 0.2%. This follows the October reading of 1.5% which was also the estimate. This marked the lowest gain since December 2021. The weak wage data will support the Bank of Japan in maintaining its ultra-loose policy. Governor Ueda has hinted at a shift in policy but has stressed that won't happen before inflation is sustainable at 2%, backed by higher wage growth. The BoJ is looking ahead to the annual wage negotiations in March. If workers win significant pay raises from employers, that could set the stage for the BOJ tightening interest rates in April. The US dollar has looked sharp early in 2024, despite the Fed pivoting sharply and signalling that it plans to raise rates this year. The dollar has surged 3.3% against the yen in January, after a 4.85% decline in December. Last week's nonfarm payroll report was stronger than expected, providing support for the Fed to maintain rates in restrictive territory until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. This 'higher for longer' stance was reiterated by Atlanta Fed President Bostic on Monday, who stated that he had a "natural bias to be tighter" and anticipated two rate cuts by the end of the year, with an initial one in the third quarter. This is a far cry from market expectations of up to six rate cuts this year, starting in March. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 144.93 and 145.37. Above, there is resistance at 146.13 There is support at 144.17 and 143.73
by OANDA
Early Entry around Range Resistance Overview CADJPY is showing signs of upside momentum weakening. Price may attempt a bearish move to the weekly range support around 95.00. The Details Fundamental Analysis The Bank of Canada (BOC) may be one of the first central banks (apart from the ECB) to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely start hiking rates in 2024. This means CAD weakness and JPY strength. Canadian inflation is nearing 2%, and signs of recession increase the chances of the BOC cutting rates. Technical Analysis The most recent swing high was slightly higher than the previous one, suggesting upside momentum is weakening. There is a bearish divergence on the weekly RSI. Things to consider Canadian inflation is currently (as of early January 2024) at 3.10% and declining. If inflation becomes stubborn or increases, the chances of BOC rate cuts become less likely. The swap rate for shoring this pair is not favourable. Multiple short-term positions may be more profitable than a long-term position. Price action may form a fake-out move above 110.00 before becoming bearish.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
USDJPY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Is it going to be the same story again for the USDJPY? In 2022, the USDJPY climbed to reach just below 152 before turning down to the 128 support level. The similar price movement played out in 2023 as the USDJPY rose from the 128 support level to retest the 152 resistance level. The USDJPY has reversed down to the 140 price area (50% Fibonacci retracement level), primarily due to the weakness of the DXY as markets began to price in rate cut scenarios from the US Federal Reserve. This move lower was also due to rumors that the BoJ could end its ultra-loose monetary policy at the December 2023 meeting. However, the BoJ has so far maintained its current policy stance as it continues the fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target level. The longer the BoJ persists with its negative rates regime in 2024, this could continue to bring weakness to the Yen. Combined with some retracement on the DXY, the USDJPY could retest the 143-144 price area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) in the short term. Look for the BoJ to signal a plan for policy normalization in 2024, to lead to further downside. However, it'll be crucial for the USDJPY to break below the 138-round number support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before we can see a significant downside to the 128-support level again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY steady, BoJ releases summary of opinionsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.54, up 0.12%. The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from the December meeting was released earlier today. That meeting was somewhat of a disappointment to the markets, as there were expectations of a move after senior BoJ members hinted prior to the meeting that the Bank was looking to lift interest rates out of negative territory. In the end, the BoJ stayed put and maintained policy settings. The summary highlighted the split amongst board members regarding the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. One member stated that the timing of normalizing policy was "getting closer" but another member said that the BoJ could wait until after wage talks next spring. The internal debate revolves around the key question as to when inflation will become sustainable at the 2% target. Governor Ueda has argued that wage growth must increase before inflation is sustainable and that the current high rate of inflation is due to cost-push factors. This means that national wage talks in April will play a key role in determining the BoJ's rate policy. The takeaway from the summary is that an exit from ultra-loose policy is a question of when rather than if, and that there are differences of opinion within the central bank as to the timing of a shift in policy. We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it's a safe bet that a shift in policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. The BoJ holds its next meeting on January 22-23. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 142.55. Above, there is resistance at 142.78 There is support at 142.34 and 142.11
by OANDA
USD/JPY yawns after BoJ CPI slipsThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.39, down 0.04%. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading lower. Last week, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped in November from 2.9% to 2.5%. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's Core CPI index followed suit and declined to 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in October. Core inflation may have dropped in November, but it has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for well over a year and speculation is high that the central bank will shift policy and lift interest rates from negative territory, perhaps in early 2024. Such a move would mark a sea change in monetary policy, after decades of negative rates. We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it's a safe bet that a shift in rate policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. BoJ Governor Ueda has hinted that the economy is slowly moving towards the BoJ target, but the central bank wants to see stronger wage growth before it considers inflation to be sustainable. The BoJ has insisted that current inflation is being driven by cost-push factors and is not sustainable. On Monday, Ueda said that he would consider shifting policy if the "cycle between wages and prices intensifies" but added that there was no specific timing to changing the Bank's ultra-loose policy. The US wrapped up last week with the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. The headline reading fell to 2.6% y/y in November, down from a downwardly revised 2.9% in October and lower than the market consensus of 2.8%. The core rate eased to 3.2%, down from a downwardly revised 3.4% and lower than the market consensus of 3.3%. The numbers are welcome news for the Fed and support the case for rate cuts next year. Fed Chair Powell has pencilled in three cuts in 2024 but the markets have priced in up to six cuts. Investors have priced in a rate cut in January at 14%, up from 8% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 142.55. Above, there is resistance at 142.78 There is support at 142.34 and 142.11
by OANDA
USD/JPY eyes inflation, BoJ minutesThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.85, down 0.61%. Later today, the US releases third-estimate GDP for the third quarter, which is expected to confirm that the economy grew at an impressive rate of 5.2% q/q. Japan's Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is considered the preferred inflation gauge for the Bank of Japan. The November report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to fall to 2.5% y/y, compared to 2.9% in October. Core CPI has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for 19 straight months, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten policy. The BoJ has insisted that high inflation is a result of cost-push pressures and that higher wage growth is needed to ensure that inflation is sustainable. Still, a shift in policy from the BoJ is likely a question of when rather than if, with senior BoJ officials hinting that the central bank is considering tightening its ultra-loose policy. Japan's government expects inflation to remain well above the target and has revised upwards its inflation forecast to 2.5% for the fiscal year starting in April. The previous forecast stood at 1.9%. The government said that the upward revision was due to a weaker yen, higher oil prices and the expected reduction in subsidies for utility costs. The Bank of Japan will release on Friday the minutes from the meeting on October 31. At the meeting, the BoJ maintained policy but removed the 1% upper ceiling on its yield control curve (YCC) program, saying 1% would remain a reference level. The tweak was enough to shake up the currency markets, as the yen plunged 1.78% against the US dollar on October 31, its sharpest daily gain since February. Investors will be looking through the minutes for further details about the decision to tweak YCC and any hints about future rate policy. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.18 and is testing support at 142.80. Below, there is support at 142.34 There is resistance at 143.64 and 144.02
by OANDA
USDJPY H4 | Falling to 61.8% Fibo supportUSD/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 142.466 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 140.800 which is a level that lies under a swing-low support. Take profit is at 144.954 which is a pullback resistance that sits under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
USDJPY Hunting Resitance On Hawkish BoJUSDJPY came sharply to the downside recently on the hawkish BoJ which now saying that normalization can happen, possibly in March of 2024. Also, Ueda said that policy change could involve element of surprise . So we evne shoudl be aware of some volatile price moves in weeks ahead, ideally in favour of the JPY. From an Elliott wave perspective we see nice turn lower, through the daily trendline support so more weakness can be coming after a corrective rally that is still in play. I see some nice resistance for wave 2/B rally is at 146.60-148. GH
by ew-forecast
USD/JPY - Yen climbs to 4.5 month high, BOJ nextThe Japanese yen is lower at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.77, up 0.44%. The yen continues to power higher and surged 1.9% last week. It marked a fifth straight winning week for the yen, which has climbed 6.2% during that time. The yen strengthened to 140.95 on Friday, its highest level since July 31. Bank of Japan policy meetings have become must-see events, with investors on edge over speculation that the central bank is planning to tighten policy. Tuesday's meeting will be closely watched, especially after hints from senior BoJ officials that it could phase out negative rates, which would be a sea-change in policy that would likely boost the yen. The BoJ might not announce any changes at the meeting, but I doubt that will quell speculation that a policy change is coming. The BoJ tends to hold its cards close to its chest, maximizing the surprise effect of any policy moves. The BoJ has been an outlier among central banks in sticking to an ultra-loose policy while its peers were busy raising rates, and the BoJ is expected to tighten policy next year while other major central banks are looking to cut rates. The BoJ has long insisted that inflation is not sustainable, but that position has become difficult to defend, as inflation has remained above the 2% target month after month. New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that the Fed was not discussing rate cuts and that the Fed could tighten policy if inflation stalled or reversed directions. The markets don't seem to be listening, however, and have priced in six rate cuts next year, starting as soon as March. At last week's meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally jumped on the rate-cut bandwagon and said that the Fed would cut rates three times in 2024. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 142.61. Above, there is resistance at 143.06 There is support at 142.02 and 141.57
by OANDA