The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance.
The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value.
A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically.
The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them.
Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best.
The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability.
The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces.
The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty.
Bojeasing
Yen Weakens against Dollar as BOJ Adjusts Monetary PolicyThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 151 against the mighty dollar, thanks to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent adjustments to its monetary policy.
The winds of change are blowing in our favor, and it's time to seize this moment and take action! By going long on USDJPY, we can potentially capitalize on this favorable market trend and secure significant gains. The BOJ's limited adjustments to their monetary policy have created a fertile ground for us to explore and maximize our profits.
Why should you consider going long on USDJPY, you ask? Well, let me break it down for you:
1. BOJ's Monetary Policy Adjustments: The BOJ's recent tweaks to their monetary policy indicate a shift towards a more accommodative stance, which typically leads to a weaker yen. With the yen already breaching the 151 mark against the dollar, this provides an excellent opportunity to ride the wave of yen depreciation.
2. Favorable Dollar Strength: The US dollar has been flexing its muscles lately, exhibiting strength against various major currencies. By pairing it with the weakened yen, we have a powerful combination that can potentially amplify our gains.
3. Potential for Increased Volatility: As the yen weakens and the market reacts to the BOJ's policy adjustments, we can expect increased volatility in the USDJPY pair. For experienced traders like us, volatility often translates into profitable opportunities.
Now, it's time for action! Take advantage of this exciting market development and consider going long on USDJPY. Remember, the key to success lies in seizing opportunities when they arise, and this is undoubtedly one of those moments.
As always, remember to conduct thorough research, employ proper risk management strategies, and consult with your trusted financial advisor or broker before making any trading decisions.
Wishing you fruitful trades and a prosperous journey in the forex market!
Ready to ride the wave of yen depreciation? Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity! Take action now and go long on USDJPY to potentially maximize your profits. Remember, the forex market waits for no one, so seize the moment and make your move today!
EURJPY.....SELL (250 Pips)Expected EJ to reject at 142.00, from my rejection zone (red box). AS you can see the market played by that structure, i'm considering a sell run to correct the bulls formed from last week's ascending triangle which occurred on Wednesday and that of Friday's session. Expecting a sell momentum to push this EJ to a possible 300 pips with final TP valued at 138.70 which results in 2% price reduction.
NB: blue box: Breakout zone!!!!
GBPJPY....(159 PIPS)Last week technically, GJ experienced a strong downtrend after it rejected from my rejection zone at 159.47. I expect this momentum to continue as you can see all odds favor the Japanese yen both technically and fundamentally as a new BOJ governor is in place!
With an RR of 1:4.5
NB: Red box zone: rejection zone
Blue box zone: breakout zone!
WHAT HAPPENED WITH JPY?Hello guys! Here is a quick summary of what happened in the market today, especially in the Japanese one, after the Bank of Japan surprised everyone.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan made its first move towards a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy after weeks of speculation. As part of an adjustment to its yield curve control policy, the BoJ decided to increase the range of its target for the yield on 10-year government bonds from +/- 25 basis points to +/- 50 basis points. Despite this change, the Bank kept its short-term policy rate at -0.1% and maintained its commitment to easing in its statement. In fact, the BoJ plans to increase its purchases of Japanese government bonds in the coming quarter, from 7.3 trillion yen per month to 9 trillion yen.
The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment was more hawkish than financial markets had anticipated, and contributed to the yen's further recovery from a 30-year low reached this October. A stronger yen may provide some relief to the Japanese economy, which has been grappling with the high cost of imports due to the sharp decline in the value of the yen this year.
As the possibility of more hawkish central bank actions and a potential recession in 2023 increased, the value of Asian currencies against the US dollar decreased further and risk appetite remained low. While the US dollar strengthened against most Asian currencies, the strength of the yen, euro, and pound weighed on the dollar index and dollar index futures.
What do you think about the BoJ's move? FX:USDJPY FX:USDJPY BMFBOVESPA:JPY1! PEPPERSTONE:JPYX
EUR/JPY CONTINUED GAINS SEEM LIKELYHaruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), expressly denies expectations of monetary and fiscal policy tightening in the coming months.
He said Japan is in no position to tighten monetary policy.
This clearly indicates that the yen might be significantly weaker.
Technically, price is currently treading above 138.938.
We expect it to find resistance at around 141.629 to 143 area.
However, upside momentum may be nullified if a reversal happens to occur when price pullbacks and breaks below the turning point 138.938
USDJPY - Retracement After Bull on BOJUSDJPY gained over 130 pips after BOJ signaled to continue easing.
The bullish wave has completed a significant wave of retracement after reaching 112.
It is highly probable that USDJPY will continue another wave of appreciation fundamentally where the Fed continues its effort to raise rate and BOJ continued to ease monetary policy.
The technical rebound and supported by a H4 rising trendline also proved that the price has more bullish potential.
USDJPY: Potential CD leg to 91 handleHow long can the BoJ maintain its zero yield curve targeting with the growing divergence between US rates, strong GDP numbers and Abe's strong arming of Japanese corporates to raise wages? Looking for the USDJPY to test 100 congestion zone in the medium term followed by the 91 handle over the longer term. Extrapolate the strength of the USDJPY to the DXY and consider the inflationary impact on US imports (notwithstanding Trump's trade wars) and of course equities. Note, this is not going to be one a straight line move to 91, so trade accordingly.
BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US50 Delta ATM Volatilities:
USDJPY -
- $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m
- Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event vol fades.
GBPJPY -
- £Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 58.66%mrkt 25.93%1wk 23.02%2wk 18.30%1m
- The same can be said about sterling yens ATM curve, adding that it is steeper accross the tenors as the recently heightened GBP risk/ BOE event vol is priced into the 1wks and 2wks greater relatively vs $yen, with 1ms also outperforming $Yen as the perceived GBP risk/ vol post-brexit carries higher vs the USD.
EURJPY -
- EUROYEN has an ATM implied volatility curve of 49.42%mrkt 22.82%1wk 18.03%2wk 14.23%1m
- EUROYEN mirrors $yen from 1wk-1m as the term structure is very similar for eur vs usd (no significant event vol expected). Though we see a notable 6-7vol divergence in the current vol which is expected as $Yen expressions are favourable for BOJ out-performance positionings (USD a firmer based/ more widely traded) and £Yen are favourable for BOJ under-performance structures as BOE next week compunds the attractiveness in the downside of the cross (BOE likely to ease) which in turn increases the demand for £Yen expression on a BOJ no-show.
25Delta Risk Reversals (25d call vol minus 25d put vol - examines the relative demand)
USDJPY -
- $Yen RRs are +3 mrkt, +0.62 1wk, -0.67 2wk, -0.81m
- Interestingly we are seeing a moderate $Yen topside coverage in the front end (e.g. current and 1wks) implying the market is hedging/ positioning for a BOJ Out-performance Surprise (call demand > Put). The RRs are quite small at +1 so i wouldnt say there is a huge consensus on BOJ HIT expectations. Nonetheless calls are likely being purchased to hedge underlying spot short positions in the near term as any $yen/ BOJ topside is expected to not last long and be faded aggressively - which explains the switch to negative RRs after the BOJ/ MOF events have passed.
GBPJPY -
- £Yen RRs are -6 mrkt, -3 1wk, -1.3 2wk, -2.2 1m
- Understandably SterlingYen has a different RR structure as BOJ and BOE predispositions are priced into option structures, rather than just BOJ (as is the case for £yen and euroyen) - so we see a strong put bias, particularly in the front end (current and 1wks) as these cover the BOE and BOJ event vol. Unlike $Yen we see there is a clear trend for BOJ miss/ downside speculation as it is the logical chosen proxy, as a BOJ miss is highly likely to then be compounded over the current and 1wk terms as BOE hit expectations are priced in, accelerating the GBPJPY to the downside and RRs towards the LHS (BOJ miss = yen strength, BOE hit = Streling weakness - aggressive downside). Also put gbpjpy, automatically hedges any BOJ hit/topside risk as 1wk later the BOE is likely to ease so any yen downside arising from a BOJ hit will likely be smoothed somewhat by BOE easing induced GBP selling; thus lessening the negative impact or even turning the position back into the money.
USD/Yen since QQE with negative interest rateBesides raising stock prices, the main idea behind QQE with a negative interest rate was to further weaken the Yen.
This effect could not be seen since the Introduction of QQE with a negative interest rate.
It is assumed that because of the "risk-off mode" of global investors demand for the "safe haven" Yen has increased, leading to an appreciation of the yen.
BUY USDJPY @104 & SELL GBPUSD @1.33: RISK-ON, POLITICS, BOJ, BOEThe Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system.
St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south.
Trading Strategy
1. Given this I remain bullish on the $ in the medium term, despite this spike in risk-on which IMO is unlikely to last more than 2wks. In the immediate term I like long $yen as the best play ATM vs other expressions - with a target of 109, entry at 104 as 1) the markets have finally signalled they are ready for a recovery bull run, post the brexit risk-off/ safe haven rally - largley on the back of CB stimulus. I believe USDJPY has been the most sold risk-on asset, thus it is now ripe for buying; 2) JPY fiscal stimulus is likely to come; 3) BOJ is likely to deliver 10-20bps of cuts to its interest rate 4) we have broken the 104 "brexit seller resistance level" which has held since the vote - this break imo means we can now move to 109+ as the recovery leg before resuming lower; 5) the Fed Funds Rate curve continues to steepen across the curve but particularly aggressively in the front end (yesterday 10ys adding 5%) and as a result implied probabilities of hikes continue to rally across the 2016/17 tenors (Dec hike now 33.7% vs 29.2%Mon); 5) check the attached posts for long $jpy support
2. Secondly, short GBP$ is a trade i am closely eyeing.. I am a 70% seller at 1.32 (90% at 1.35) - short GBP rallies is the preferred trade as the BOE is likely to deliver easing in Aug that will drive us down to the 1.25 terminal rate that I have predicted - thus i am hoping we get some "poor information money" flows into GBP up to 1.34/5 going into Friday as 1) UK Political Uncertainty is eased - as Theresa May is the New PM starting Wednesday; 2) GBP buying on Thursday if the BOE doesn't cut rates, whilst I (and the market) believes an august cut is the likelihood instead, given the aggressive GBP selling these past weeks it is prudent to assume quite a large amount of money may/was be betting on a July Cut thus if this "disappoints" some of the market we could see cable trade higher to 1.34+; 3) Long GBP is the risk-on trade, so if risk holds up/ carries on rallying we could see GBP$ take us to 1.34+ - CB and Fiscal stimulus + the fact risk has been depressed for so long, i believe risk has the momentum to rally until the end of the week at least (next risk-rally then looks to 28th July for BOJ stimulus?)
3. The long $Yen and short GBP$ also acts as a dynamic hedge as the long UJ is the risk-on coverage, with the short cable the risk-off half - combining both semi-hedges your exposure, something i like to do when trading.
FED Tarullo Speech Highlights
- "the conditions for destructive runs that threaten financial stability could exist even where no institutions that might be perceived as too-big-to-fail are immediately involved"
FED Bullard Speech Highlights
- Bullard: An unemployment rate around 4.7%, gross domestic product growth of 2% and the Fed' preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, at 2%.
- "If there are no major shocks to the economy, this situation could be sustained over a forecasting horizon of two and a half years"
- "we have no reason to forecast a recession given the current state of the US economy"
LONG USDJPY @105.8: NEUTRAL FOMC; DOVISH & EASE BOJ & RISK-ONWe had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ.
Trading strategy:
LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish BOJ)
TP @>107 = 100pips at least - SL @104.9-105.2
Reasoning
- FOMC overall was neutral, we had lower projections but Yellen remained mildly upbeat, telling the market to shrug off the short NFP report (quite rightly).
- So this means $ demand/ supply remains flat.
- The main driver of the LONG UJ play is on the JPY side. Given that FOMC was flat, this means JPY "risk-off" and uncertainty buying which would have arisen if the fed was aggressively hawkish/ hiked was neutralised - meaning JPY "rate hike induced" safe haven demand was neutralised as instead the FOMC helped risk trade higher = LONG USDJPY as JPY demand falls
- So now we have a situation of neutral USD and neutral JPY as there was no rate hike to unsteady markets and cause JPY to be brought
- So the driver of the LONG USDJPY is the fact that IMO the BOJ will be aggressively dovish and likely to cut rates - their core and CPI prints are consistantly below 0% at -0.5% for Tokyo CPI and Core, with National at -0.3% for both.
These CPI prints are the average print for the last 6 months meaning BOJ policy has been inefective in reaching their goal as inflation is stale and not rising. Thus IMO they have to CUT and EASE and be DOVISH = Long USDJPY
- Further, Kuroda BOJ head said he is aware of JPY trading strongly due to its safe haven properties and he has stated he is prepared to fight this risk-off led Yen appreciation - this means HEAVY easing to negate the JPY risk-off strength and weaken the currency = long USDJPY
- Finally, a dovish BOJ helps ease the risk-off sentiment in the market at the moment (stocks falling and gold rallying) as BOJ easing puts more liquidity into the markets - calming the risk-off sentiment means LESS JPY buying and MORE JPY selling = LONG USDJPY
Evaluation
- So with USD as a stable denominator, I expect the BOJ to heavily ease in order to 1) improve their inflation performance closer to their target 2) to devalue JPY from the risk-off buying that brexit uncertainty has caused.
- Further, UJ is the best expression of the short JPY play as EUR and GBP are both comprimised by BREXIT uncertainty - which is constantly trying to trade eur and gbp lower - hence a long ej or gj is not advised - UJ is the least affected of the majors by brexit - *see my dynamic straddle post attached for more details*
- on that note one may argue AUD or NZD could be used for the long, since they too are even less affected by brexit downside, which is true, however i dont have enough experience in those markets - if think there is a better denominator than USD for the long then by all means use it - however IMO USD is the best of the bunch for future dollar demand as they are the only Central bank to be hiking NZD and AUD are still cutting.
- Also UJ imp volatility is finally falling with 1wk implieds dropping to 12.55 (-3.45), which improves the environment for buying.
Plus as you can see below Historical Vol is also falling, once again illustrating that price may be ready to start rising again - low vol = more buying. Plus the ATR trades lower than average which is a bullish sign - bull markets range less.
- And we are still oversold massively at -2/3 SD of the mean of the weekly. Plus we trade close to the handle at 105.35 which is the strongest support level in USDJPY history thus helping upside from here (unless we break ofc).
Comments welcome