3-sigma short signal
We expect this to rug on the fundamentals, but FOMC had opposite effect
The 3-sigma Bollinger will light any wick that enters it
Let the wick burn and wait for a close outside the 2.5-3 sigma channel to trigger the trade, and watch it explode to the downside
Risk the highest wick in the channel
Target 3x
BoJ is watching you do this
Bollingbands
BTC - Crucial times ahead for Bitcoin on the weekly chartBTC - A look at the Weekly Chart:
BTC is still above it’s 50EMA on this weekly timeframe.
BTC is below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this weekly timeframe. Note that the Lower Band has risen up indicating volatility has slowed and now brought back into equilibrium for this weekly timeframe. Note that the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands are moving sideways.
If we look at the Longterm Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C), BTC is still above its Longterm Upwards Pitchfork Median Line.
At the moment, BTC is still below its Volume Moving Average (Orange Line) for this weekly timeframe which is a 20 Period MA. Overall volume is still low for this week.
I have added the 100EMA and 200EMA so you can see where these potential levels of support are at the moment of typing this for this weekly timeframe.
The Average Directional Index (ADX DI) is showing that the trend strength has dropped with the ADX (Yellow Line) dropping to 50.33 and its below its 9 Period EMA (White Line) which is at 58.25. The -DI (Red Line) is at 22.97 above its +DI (Green Line) 15.59. Notice however that the -DI (Red Line) is pointing downwards indicating negative momentum has also dropped. We eventually need the +DI (Green Line) to start curving upwards and eventually cross back over the -DI (Red Line) that will indicate renewed longterm positive momentum for this weekly timeframe.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is showing that accumulation has dropped massively from its high but the CMF (Green Line) is still in the Accumulation Zone at 0.03. Notice that the CMF (Green Line) is starting to curve slightly sideways. I have added a Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) (Blue Line) to the CMF, note that the CMF (Green Line) is below its LSMA (Blue Line) which is at 0.15, a very good sign will be if the CMF curves upwards and gets back above the LSMA.
This week and next will be very crucial for BTC, if you are longterm long then you need BTC to stay above the Longterm Pitchfork Median Line and the 50EMA on this weekly chart. If BTC cannot stay above the 50EMA & Pitchfork Median Line on this weekly timeframe then BTC may drop into the Distribution Zone on the CMF for this weekly timeframe.
A very good sign to look out for is if this weekly candle and especially next week’s candle closes green with a higher high and a higher low and especially above that crucial support of the 50EMA and Pitchfork Median Line.
Here is a closer look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF):
Here is a closer look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI):
I hope this is helpful with your trading or hodl-ing.
Gold Moves Sideways in OverBought TerritoryAlthough Gold mostly moved sideways today, closing up 3 points on the day. As price moved up in late afternoon trading, I did enter a short position for the following reasons:
1. Price has stalled well into the overbought upper Bollinger Band territory
2. Friday's shooting star followed by Monday's doji indicate to me that the upward momentum is waning
3. Tuesday's candle stopped right at the upper Bollinger Band but not above it.
4. haDelta daily indicator has been red for 2 days
As gold continues to sell off after hours, I will be watching price reaction at the 7 day moving average at 1283.40. If price breaks through that level, I'll be looking for a continued move down to 1261.60, the mid point on the Bollinger Bands.
Baring an unexpected sell-off, it'll take another couple of days for the Heikin-Ashi candles to turn red.
Gold Rises to Top of Month Long RangeOn Monday, Gold continued Friday's move up and rose 2.1 points to close at 1254. I have highlighted the month long range on the chart. Price also closed above the 7 day moving average and the haDelta has turned back to blue. In addition, the upper Bollinger Band has started to move higher to 1271.90 And the Heikin-Ashi chart below shows a strong potential trend change.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Natural Gas Continues to Descend Through the CloudNatural Gas continued to move lower and through the Ichimoku Cloud. Next stop looks like the 21 day moving average, the gold line in the middle of the cloud. Remember, hitting the 21 day moving average after a breach of the 8 day moving average, is a high statistical probability.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Gold Closes Higher in Wake of Fed Rate HikeGold closed 6.6 points higher in the first full day of trading after the Fed announced a new interest rate hike. Price closed above many of the moving averages, including the 6, 8 50 and 100. It also closed above the 21 week moving average. In addition, as I called out yesterday, price did tag the 21 day moving average as was expected after the close above the 6 day moving average yesterday. However, price was not able to close above the 21 day and this is keeping me from being 100% certain of this bull move. However, I am long and I do expect that price will move up and tag the upper bollinger band.
Also notice that the signal line on the stochastic indicator at the bottom of the chart is now above the 20 line and has crossed over the slow line. And also crossing is the 50 over the 100 day moving average. Lots of indication that a bull move is now starting.
The Heikin-Ashi view shows that we have completed 2 green days now and Friday starts with another strong green candle.
Price did touch that POC on the short and intermediate term Volume Profiles. Let's see if Gold can overcome that resistance level and roll above it.
Finally tonight I'd like to look at the dollar index. We now have a solid Heikin-Ashi candle under the Ichimoku cloud and right at the lower Bollinger Band. If the dollar index can continue to moving lower, look at the 200 day moving average (blue line) below at 98.35 as a target. That would be good indeed for the Gold bulls.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Natural Gas Gaps Up to Start the WeekNatural Gas gapped up Sunday night to open the week. After touching the 21 day moving average, natgas closed lower, just outside the cloud. I closed my position near the high of the day, taking profits. I am now flat, watching to see what happens during the week.