Bitcoin Daily Update (day 207)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis /position: “I am going to continue to wait on the sidelines for further development. I will be watching for the price to retest prior resistance for support at $6,560 and see what happens from there.” / Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,550 | Will price resist $6,800 and/or create lower high or will it create a higher high?
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back down to 27,439 which is not far from support
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.011%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: +0.007% | 26: Being tested for support | Will we get a bullish crossover?
50 & 128 MA’s: Brokethrough 50 MA and is finding support from it | 128: -3.91% | Price is being squeezed in between the two, will it get a golden cross?
Volume: Unimpressed by volume behind this recent pump.
FIB’s: 0.618: $6,611 | 0.5: $6,763 | 0.382: $6,916
Candlestick analysis: Doji and bearish spinning top have been confirmed
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud held as resistance. Price tried to break back into 12h cloud but has since fallen out of it. Top of 4h cloud held as resistance. All clouds are bearish except for 1h which recently had a bearish TK’ cross and has re entered the cloud. It illustrates $6,444 as major level of support.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly price flip following G2 > G1| Daily G4 | 12h R3 | 4h R7 (R9 should provide a bounce and it will be very important if it creates a higher high or a lower high)
Visible Range: Remains in high liquidity area. Should be significant supply and the demand seems to be waning.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -1.44% | 24h: -1.01% | 1w: +5.89% | 2w: +5.3% | 1m: +1.45%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $6,487 should get retested after pulling back from top band. Tightest the daily bands have been since April of 2017. Tightest we have seen the weekly bands since Dec 2016.
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $7,044
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $7,400 | Down: $6,098
On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly.
ADX: ADX is nearing all time lows which indicates that the chop should be coming to an end soon.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div' on daily as CMF’ continues to make lower highs and lower lows.
RSI (30 setting): W: 49.13 | D: 48.7
Stoch: Daily sell signal
Summary: All signs are pointing to a huge move being on the horizon. The Bollinger Band super squeeze that is occurring is a very strong indicator of upcoming volatility. The ADX’ nearing all time lows provides confirmation.
A move is coming, but there is no way to be sure which direction it will go. Therefore it is best to be prepared for both outcomes. If the price breaks out of the triangle (on volume), creates the first higher high of 2018 and breaks through the daily cloud then it will be time to enter a large long position.
However, there is one reason why I do not believe that will happen and it is the overall sentiment on Trading View and Twitter. If this was the end of a bear market then the majority would be calling this a dead cat bounce. Instead the majority still seem confident that the bottom is in and that it is time to accumulate.
The bottom is found when there is overwhelming fear, doubt and uncertainty. The bottom does not usually come it when the majority of market participants remain bullish. That is why I will be confidently looking for a short position to enter.
These next couple days should be very telling. The current pullback should bring us to $6,444 - $6,550 and what happens from there will be extremely important. If the bounce creates a lower high below $6,835 then it will be a tremendous shorting opportunity. If it does create a higher high then it will test the top end of the descending triangle at $7,000. I would view that as another great shorting opportunity due to being able to set a very tight stop loss which would likely provide a > 10:1 risk:reward ratio.
ETHUSDLONGS have entered extremely overbought conditions and are over 2X greater than prior all time highs. That could fuel the most epic squeeze crypto has ever seen and could likely be the catalyst for the next drawdown in the markets.
Bollinger Bands (BB)
Cardano Adds $300 Million : Bulls are back?After 3 consecutive days in which the price of Cardano had a positive evolution, it finally went above the 20 days Moving Average leaving behind the bearish trend that started on the 5th of September.
If the closing price of the current candlestick on a 1D chart will be higher than the opening one, we could get a confirmation of a bullish trend based on the Bollinger Bands principles.
The RSI and the Stochastic are on neutral positions, while the MACD line is still above the Signal one indicating that the bullish trend we've seen since the 18th of September could continue.
In this scenario, the possible targets are :
* 0.0910$ (Resistance Level 1)
* 0.0984$ (Resistance Level 2)
* 0.1105$ (Resistance Level 3)
But if the price of Cardano at the end of the day will be in red, this means that the bullish trend has failed to confirm and the possible targets to be considered are :
* 0.0785$ (Support Level 1)
* 0.0661$ (Support Level 2)
XRP Buy Candles Triggered Before Major MoveHere we can see the DBT Squeeze Buy Candle triggered on the 2hour time frame right before the major move up, and again before the second move up. These Buy Candles triggered on almost every time frame.
The first move was 21% from the close of the first candle. The second move was 34.84% from the close of the buy candle (even though you would of entered much earlier). The first take profit candle was triggered at 14%, the second buy candle has not formed a take profit candle on the 2hour, but has formed on lower time frames.
XPO - good potential to come down tomorrow 8/15Looking at the moving average on the daily charts, you can see that the stock is starting to trend down. MACD, StochasticRSI, and the Directional Movement indicators all agree with the movement down. The weekly chart is also showing a movement down still and has hit a ceiling on the middle bollinger band. Good opportunity to watch and get in if the stock shows a downward movement in the next day.
Solid earnings and RSI/Price Divergence. Big move coming?Even after beating earnings by nearly 70% ATVI has moved down and created what I think is an excellent buy. On top of their solid earnings, the 6-month normalized RSI is sitting at oversold levels about to cross above 30. Their is also bullish RSI/price divergence creating an arguably more reliable signal (marked by the blue line).
EUR\USD Money time !Wow ! Look at this !
The EUR\USD is on triple-bottom right now !
There is a chance (If it close below 1.05 on the weekly) to see the EUR 1:1 with the USD !!!
BUT, if it will close the weekly candle above 1.55 we will see the EUR back up and we gets 250 PIPS right away !
Be aware ! A great opportunity is coming this Friday ! (N.F.P)
Big Crypto Move Coming | Litecoin and the Bollinger Band SqueezeThere is a Bollinger Band squeeze setting up on various time frames for Litecoin (LTC). Other coins are showing the same.
Look for increased volatility very soon. The last few times the bollinger band width has been this low in litecoin, the result has been a dump lower. This is expected as it has been a bearish market on all time frames. But then for every time it broke lower, the chances increase that the next one will break higher.
Kind of like an immutable law of trading that 5-8 straight candles of the same color are just too many, and an opposite candle will follow (until it doesn't). But this is trading, not roulette (although sometimes indistinguishable).
Anyway, thought you all would like to be aware of the increased volatility approaching. Thank you for viewing.
Travis
JMJ - UIOGD
DAILY: Long GBPUSD - Short/Medium Term PlayHi, my first idea here. Please feel free to share where you think I can improve. Thank you!
I believe in using fundamentals to set my direction and technicals to time my entry.
Fundamentals: Long GBPUSD
- The 4 rate hikes in 2018 and 2 more in 2019 is almost fully priced in. The USD has enjoyed its bull run, but I believe it's time for it to come to an end.
- GBP strength has firmed Thursday after Carney expressed stronger conviction on inflation in the UK. Hawkish sentiments within the BoE continues to materialize, signalling greater possibility of an impeding rate hike. GBP still looks undervalued after the selloff that begin in Mid april.
Technicals: Enter now if risk appetite is high, or enter when price closes above 1.3340 out of the inner upper bollinger band
- Small green/red arrow indicates upward/downward trend exhausting, big green/red arrow indicates upward/downward trend beginning
- Downward trend has exhausted > 29 June the pair shot from below the 2nd outer bollinger band to inside the inner bands
- Upward trend is about to begin > bullish divergence between price action and RSI
Conclusion: Bag your winners quick
- As kathy lien always emphasizes: dont be too greedy. I typically stick to a 2:1 risk ratio and do a T1-T2 approach.
- Set stop loss near recent lows
BTC/USD PIVITOL DECISIONBitcoin has suffered quite the badgering this last few months, but it may be nearing a pivitol decision in where its direction should go in regards for the next half of 2018. The obvious answer by a technical analysis standpoint is that there is a bounce incoming, probably to the next resistance level around 7.8k The RSI and Bollinger Band indicate a bounce; as they are oversold. If it does go to 7.8k and fails to break resistance, 5k bitcoin may be a reality. However, if there is no bounce here, and instead bitcoin bleeds out, we may see a long term bear market stretching all the way down to the low 4k range for the rest of the year. Either way-Dollar cost avg your way down, the whales are accumulating, you should too.
Bollinger Band Squeeze: Will Volatility pick up on DASH?DASH has been fairly stagnant over the last few days. On several time frames, conditions for a Bollinger Band Squeeze are met.
You can visibly see on the chart that the bands are contracting. Another thing you want to look for is the Bollinger Band Width. On a daily, many look for a 6 month low for the squeeze to be in play.
As this is the 4 hour chart, the equivalent of 30 days would be about the same amount of candles as if it were a daily chart. Interestingly, that last time the Bollinger Band Width was THIS low, was just before the big Crypto run up in late 2017.
I don't know that the same kind of volatility from 2017 will come in just yet....but the probability is increased that some form of volatility can be expected...in either direction, up or down.
Ethereum looking bullish our of consolidationBeen following ethereum a lot these past few days as it broke out of a triangle but was unable to break the previous point of resistance and has been consolidating since. The bollinger bands are starting to get tight on the 4h, 12h, and 1d chart so within the next week or so I'm looking for a push to around .091 as the initial target and even possibly .095 as a more aggressive target. I might open a long soon with my stop placed shortly above the current consolidation that is visible on the 1h, but am looking to build most of my long with a break of .087.
EOS is going down! here's whyEOS has had a very nice pump up to $22+ but its been long overdue for a healthy correction.
Looking at TA, it has broken bollinger band middle support line, has topped out with high volume, and has begun its correction.
EOS has been the most highly traded crypto in terms of volume, even beating out bitcoin on bitfinex the past few days - very many people FOMO-ing and going to start selling if it goes down
Watch out for a bull trap as it is very likely to happen with all this bullish momentum.
Ideal entry would be the top of the bull trap, and stop losses should be used in case it goes for another pump upwards.
Possible Symmetrical SetupThe 12h has a possible symmetrical triangle setup. The bottom is formed from a trendline going back a few weeks and the top from the latest high. This also coincides with the Bollinger Band width being at a lower value than it has been for awhile. The price move from this triangle would be ~$1100.
Bollinger bands squeeze on the monthly chartThis idea is based on the green doji last month. If this month will also close green (Has to close over ~$10,350) then we can consider BTC consolidating for a bullish move later this year. So i will be keeping an eye on this and updating as we go along. The important thing is that BTC does NOT push lower than $8,600. It has already pushed it lower than i would have liked, so this is the absolute bottom. I will keep an eye on it and update this as we go along. Who knows, maybe later today the idea is already invalidated becase $8k broke. But lets see!
Keep an eye on Bollinger Bands to confirm an ETH/USD breakoutOpted for a more reactive BB setting of (10, 1.9) to track the next breakout on the ETH/USD daily chart. The upper and lower bands continue to narrow as low volatility and lack of direction continue. A close above the upper band will confirm a bullish rally, a close below the lower band will confirm a bearish sell-off.
These bands are a great tool to understand the difference between intraday noise and interday direction.
Consolidation complete? Perhaps sideways for a bit then up?I'm seeing 4H RSI that's getting pretty low and Bollinger bands that are very narrow, which leads me to believe we can perhaps expect upward movement in the near term. It's also trading pretty sideways at the moment, meeting resistance at the red horizontal line (550-580 sats). I'm thinking we're getting close, if not at the bottom right now. Not sure about any news coming up or anything but this feels like a good buy for a long term gradual increase hold. I may consider selling any pumps (like the last one we saw in mid-March) but we'll see how I feel at the time.
Open to thoughts from others.