Bollingerbandstrategy
IQ flipping key technical indicators for bull runIntroduction
I have been watching IQ on and off for almost its whole life and after a few initial long term entries and swing trades I have left it alone. It is beginning to flip some switches for me that suggest this is going to time to be a whole lot more attentive. IQ has a relatively short life to look for long term signals and so some of these charts have particular time frames and settings. This was part of my beginning of the month analysis I do when I sort through my watchlist so I don't have new positions on right now but I will over the next couple of days.
EMA Ribbon
The chart on the left is set to two weeks and displays the EMA ribbon. I would prefer to use the monthly time period or even the three week but the full ribbon doens't show except on the two week setting, so here we are. The main chart texts hits the high points, namely that the price action with only a day left has found strong support on the two week ribbon and the EMA ribbon is finally starting to unfurl bullishly. It takes a lot of pumps to get the 20 to cross bullishly over the 55 EMA and it finally happened this period.
Volume Profile
The right side has what I call my "volume and breadth" chart as I use it to look for price action to go coast to coast (or edge to edge) on the various indicators, and it is anchored by volume analysis. The first "edge to edge" we look for is for it to go from one value area to the point of control and if it finds support we look for price action to go the other value area. Historically we see that would be about a 2x. We can see that price action fell short on two attempts and if you were not a greedy little piggie and you took profit 5% below the value area you would have had a great exits. This sets up a key point: during an full blown bull market the price action has to mount the upper value area and find support on it repeatedly. For confirmation that we are in an uptrend I would love to see the price action move above and maintain above the upper value area and see the Point of Control move up to the node at $22 and the lower value area move up to the current point of control at $18. This may take several months to develop. When the price action goes back into the value area there is a chance that it will return to the point of control. and from there the lower value area
Ichimoku Cloud
Almost as a side show at this point is the fact the ichimoku cloud has turned green and is beginning to thicken. At this point it is just another confirmation signal and I don't think it gives us enough for full blown cloud analysis. As price action gets above the cloud we can start looking for T-K Crosses. When the volume profile upper value area and cloud are in the same vicinity it is a sign that the move has a lot of support. When the price action and cloud get high above the upper volume area we are in full blown bubble territory. It is my plan to get into the bulk of my position before or as that happens. You can see that happen on bitcoin on the daily chart here.
On Balance Volume
I often have the red fast EMA at 10, the blue medium at 20, and the slow EMA in green to 100 period but that doesn't provide any real information except that volume action is above the slow ema. As such I set the OBV EMAs to 25, 50 and 75 which has some prima facie validity as common sense settings. On these settings we see that the OBV has finally tested the slow EMA as support and after some activity, established a bullish ordering of the OBV, fast, medium and slow EMAS. This bullish ordering clears up a technical limitation that would prevent more cautious investors with a mature understanding of volume for going for long term holds.
MACD
The chart below is set to the one month and shows the default MACD EMAs. I don't bother to show the full MACD w/ histogram becausae it doesn't really exist. THere is only a couple of period on the signal line so that isn't helpful at all. We clearly see the price action is causing the EMAS to be cents away from a cross and price action has tested both EMAs as support. This still has a full month to develop though.
What I am doing
That was a whole lot of analysis to get to my personal strategy. With everything pointing to a bullish set up I can now look at buying dips with confidence for a long term holds. The places to buy are going to be any time price action has popped out the daily bollinger band (in yellow) and definitely any time it pops below the baseline of the weekly bollinger band (in blue). The weekly bollinger band doesn't have the lower limit because where we are going, we don't need it, perhaps for years. Seeing it below or finding support on the weekly baseline is also going to be a place where I buy call options, especially with bullishness on other indicators like the MACD or RSI (Not show).
Of course, I am not qualified to give financial advice and this is just me developing a more robust battle plan for myself.
GBPAUD on the riseGA broke out of its downward channel two weeks ago and is still trying to gain its momentum to the upside. I would like to see GA form some sort of stop hunt to the low before I enter a buy. Price reaching 1.805 would be ideal but, I will be reactive nonetheless... (hence all of the alerts, haha) let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Bollinger Bandit Trading StrategyThis trading strategy gives trading signals when price breaks through the 1 Standard Deviation Bands of a 50-period Bollinger Band. Buy signals are generated when price breaks through the upper 1 Standard Deviation Band. Sell signals are given when price breaks through the lower 1 Standard Deviation Band.
Buy signals are confirmed when the close of today was greater than the close of 30-days ago. Sell signals are confirmed when the close of today is lower than the close of 30-days ago.
Gold In The Cross HairsYesterday gold had my account RED red however when I went to bed I knew today would be a LONG day and literally XAUUSD is SUPER LONG!
My last post I questioned which way XAU would go. Once the sessions overlap were over the bulls came and start tearing into the bears raising prices back into the $1900 range.
London session came on line and went stupid with the day and by the time I woke up at 6 a.m I was already $200 in profit.
I say that to say this is patience game.
More Patience, More Profits
Expecting Bullish Price Action on CRM- CRM appears ready to break upwards out of a Bollinger Band squeeze . The same bullish price action occurred when it reported Q2 earnings in late August.
- The Commodity Channel Index , a measure of the current price level relative to the 20-day average price level, has moved above +200. This indicating a strong uptrend is beginning.
- A bullish MACD crossover is also about to occur, signalling a shift in momentum to the upside.
- The RSI indicates CRM is not yet overbought (RSI<70).
- Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 20, 50, and 200 moving averages .
Btc short term outlookOnce again crypto got hit by high correlation to equity markets. This is what happens in risk-off situations when everyone's fleeing to cash.
Pretty much the same scenario as when we dropped from the 11k range driven by trad markets, but less violently this time and didn't really go deep into demand block.
LTF (H1) BB Bot already giving multiple long signals for scaling into a swing long and SCMR turning neutral. Would like to see the same signals develop on H4/H12 and equity behave from here.
LINK longA number of long signals turning up H12 for BB Bot. This is a very significant signal and 90% of the time means that price will reach the upper band. BNB already made a move and I believe that LINK is next.
Band squeeze on H4 indicates that volatility is incoming.
Ofc macro (in this case Nasdaq) can still destroy this but until Tue there's room for crypto to move.
Btc longThis is more or less a no-brainer after yesterday drop to 11.100 and massive liquidations (someone filled on those market sells and wants to take profit) plus the fact that short kept piling in.
Strong long indication (double arrow) by BB Bot from the band deviation is a signal I'm super confident in, SCMR is supporting this by painting reversal to the upside.
Punishing day for shorts coming up, let's see how far it goes. Looking at 11.5xx first and after that weekly open.
Btc longBtc back to accumulation area, as indicated by BB Bot green arrows, after the successful long and the 5BH gtfo signal from SCMR at the top.
Only thing that could muddle the water is that USD has shown extreme weakness lately, and that will likely not be allowed for very long. Keep an eye on DXY if going long Btc here.
Btc long (continued)Long looking good after some more limit orders loading their long bags in this demand zone.
We didn't have this type of strong BB Bot signalling since the last move up from low 9k. All kinds of bollinger band deviation signals to go long here. BB width still a bit high but turning down and should bottom out before we get the next move.
This is an accumulation area ladies & gents. Hopefully it will not be ruined by the USD turning violently up, which has had negative correlation to Btc for some time now. As we have seen this year Btc is not decoupled from economic macro.
Btc liquidity 'dip'Bullmarket decided to not take any free passengers onboard lol. Better SCMR called the move on H1.
Perfect hit of BB Bot level and now bullish retest of the 11.3 level we just broke. A weekly close above this line will confirm this scenario.
Stay safe out there and don't overleverage/ trade naked.
ETH sup/res flipETH making a perfect bullish retest of previous resistance level on H4. BB Bot nailed the short as well as the horizontal level for retest. Also notice the increase in BBW after the spike up, indicating that volatility is slowing down.
Imo we are not in an all out bull market until Btc breaks thru 11.3k level and confirms it as new support.
Gl, and may the trend be your friend :)
Free Trading plan GOLD SILVER Ratio Selling Calls & PutsFollow the plan: Today the Ration id DOWNTREND and Prices are UP. So buy Silver (see below).
No Options trades as BB width is "narrow"... so sit and hold. Use 1 or 4hr and Daily Charts for true trends.
GOLD-SILVER RATIO TREND GOLD AND SILVER TREND SIGNAL
Gold-Silver Ratio Uptrend Gold and silver in Uptrend Buy Gold
Gold-Silver Ratio Uptrend Gold and Silver in Downtrend Sell Silver
Gold-Silver Ratio Downtrend Gold and Silver in Uptrend Buy Silver
Gold-Silver Ratio Downtrend Gold and Silver in Downtrend Sell Gold
Options Arbitrage vs. Spot Pricing delays-
Gold will move first. Then Gold Miners then Silver. You can't be "too late" to a major move in the precious metals.
Watch for major events and Currency changes/announcements. Also Triple or Quad "Witching Days" can make sell moves on
precious metals as trades need cash to cover margin calls.
Never sell options when Bollinger Bands are 'narrow'. Just sit... MACD and MA can show trends and Peaks. See Charts.
When BB width is "Wide" and Price is "Up" then sell CALLS.
When BB width is "Wide" and Price is "Down" then sell PUTS.
Physical ETF's- I don't feel SLV and GLD can actually "deliver" physical bars to paper holders... Caveat emptor.
XAGUSD
SIVR
SLVO
XAUUSD
OUNZ
GLDI
IAU
GLDM
SGOL
BAR
AAAU
Btc short scalpPerfect hit of the upper Bollinger band and the resistane line indicated by BB Bot mentioned in the previous post.
Limit short got hit and took initial profit to pay for the trade. Trailing stop in place now.
Ideally would like to see a retest of 10k area to confirm sup/res flip, but as we know Btc has a tendency to not look back while trending.
Btc current sitrepSo Btc is above 10k once more. Currently at weekly resistance line (see chart) as indicated by BB Bot. Notice that the volume is much lower than last time we tested this area, which doesn't exactly inject confidence in this move.
If we break this horizontal I would expect a bullish retest (resistance flipping into support), and a test of the next horizontal around 11.3k. Breaking the latter would mean we are back in a bull market.
Not trading directional moves with unhedged positions at the moment since there are many great arb opportunities currently with futures/options with close to zero risk.