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Bollingerbandstrategy

Gold Remains Under PressureDespite rumors of a Gold rally that permeated the ideashpere over the weekend, the precious metal continued to sell off today, closing near the bottom of the day and down 14 points. Last Friday's candle, while an up candle, still closed the day, and the week, under both the 7 and 21 day moving average. It was also a red Heikin-Ashi candle. In fact, all the indicators are also red. Finally, I want to point out the if price is trading under both 7 and 21 day moving averages, it is statistically probably that price will hit the lower Bollinger Bands. While nothing is 100% in trading, the odds are definitely in favor of touching the lower Bollinger Band. The haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which signals that the smoothed moving average has turned down below the raw price delta. I do want to call out that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle did have an upper wick, which is not usually present in a strong trending situation. Let's treat this as a warning only and watch what happens when price does hit the lower Bollinger Band. If you like this post, please click the Lick button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Crude Remains Under Downward PressureCrude Oil sold off today, falling .43 points and continuing to stay well under the 7 day moving average. And while the haDelta indicator last Tuesday gave a potential reversal signal (see the yellow circle?), there is no indication that the downward wave is finished. The bottom indicator is the Elliot Wave Oscillator. It, too, is showing strong downward movement. I am expecting price to keep moving lower towards the 47.70 - 47.15 range. The first is the lower Bollinger Band and the second is the yellow trend line. Zoomed out chart to show the entire trend line. The Heikin-Ashi chart shows that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a decent recovery after last Firday's doji. While it wasn't the strongest of candles and is still inside of last Thursday's candle, it is still red and confirms the downward trend. If you like this post, please click the Lick button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GoldBands
NatGas Rises from Lower Bollinger Bands, haDelta Turns PositiveNatural Gas jumped up today, rising from the lower Bollinger Bands and tagging the 21 day moving average. As the haDelta has also turned positive, I will be looking for a pullback to enter a long position. Here is the Heikin-Ashi chart: If you enjoyed this post, please press the Like button, share with your friends, and re-tweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
NYMEX:NGM2017Long
by GoldBands
Gold Rallies at End of Day. Will it Continue?Gold fell to a new 2 week low during Wednesday's trading. That is, until the end of the day when the administration's tax plan was released and Gold rallied higher to close the trading session. However, Gold met resistance at the 21 day moving average and if you look at the Heikin-Ashi chart below, today's trading ended in a strong red Heikin-Ashi candle. That begs the question of whether or not the spike was an anomaly or not. The haDelta indicator is still red. I am still bearish and holding onto my short positions. As I mentioned last night, there is a strong trading range from 1245 - 1265. I've now outlined that area with a green rectangle. I've also added 2 volume profiles to the chart (you can see them in their entirety on the very bottom chart). The long term Volume Profile dates from the beginning of 2016 to today. What's interesting is that the Point of Control is smack in the middle of that trading range. And that also coincides with the 23% fib retracement of the current year's rally. The Point of Control on the short term Volume Profile is nearly at the same level as the 38% retracement. If price does drop in the coming days, these would be the areas of interest. If you've enjoyed this post, please click the Like button, share with your friends and re-tweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Short TargetsI want to follow up on my earlier post on potential downside targets for Gold. There are 2 immediate targets. There is a 23% fib retracement at 1256.5. This fib is based on the yearly high and low. You can see a strong line of support there. A trendline that extended from the last 2 pivot lows has a strong confluence with the same fib's 38% retracement level. It's also in the general price are of the lower Bollinger Band. To recap, 2 strong support levels at 1256 and 1231. If you like this post, please click the Like button, share with your friends and retweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Closes Just under Important 21 Day Moving AverageGold closed down on Tuesday, just below the 21 day moving average. You can see that the body of Tuesday's candle covers the wick of yesterday's candle. That means that the sell-off today was not met by strong buying. We've also had 2 strong Heikin-Ashi candles in a row (see chart below). All indicators are pointing to a continued sell off and I am maintaining my first price target of 1235.30 which is the lower Bollinger Band. If you enjoy these posts, please click the Like button, share and re-tweet! Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
NatGas Drops to 1st Price Target at Lower Bollinger BandNatural Gas started the week with a sharp drop to a low of 3.031, hitting the lower Bollinger Band @ 3.03, which was my first profit target. This completed the coast to coast trade that begin with a short entry at 3.27 on April 5. After a week and a half of sideway motion and dojis, today's price drop was a welcome event. With both the haDelta and the Heikin-Ashi charts showing that a possible momentum speedup is in the works, I remain bearish. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Closes Lower & Hits Support at the 21 Day Moving AverageGold gapped lower on Sunday night and dropped to the 21 day moving average @ 1266. Even though price rebounded off that support area, the precious metal still closed well under the 7 day moving average and now seems like it wants to re-test Monday's low. We also had the first strong red Heikin-Ashi candle since the downturn from the upper Bollinger Band (see chart below). We will want to see more of these strong Heikin-Ashi candles to give us confidence that a strong downward move is in progress and not just a chop zone of sideways price action. The haDelta indicator is confirming the downtrend as well. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
NaturalGas Moves Sideways, Add Another Doji to the MixNatural Gas moved sideways again today, making that 4 dojis in the last 5 trading days. Trapped within the confines of the 7 and 21 day moving averages, today did close below the pair which is a positive sign for our short side position. I am still looking for a final push down to the 3.05 lower Bollinger Band. The Heikin-Ashi chart confirms price is confined to a tiny sliver. At some point, we will see a major breakout. It may take awhile but when it does break, it should give us excellent trading action. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Trades in Tiny Range as Big News Weekend AwaitsGold closed up a point and a half today on an extremely low volatility day and ended the day trapped within the net of the 7 day moving average and the upper band of the Keltner Channel. I expect another quiet day tomorrow as the world is waiting for the results of the French election this weekend. If the populist candidate wins and the French decide they want out of the EU, this could create major disruption in the global markets. Gold could be the big winner in all of this as the precious metal would be seen as one of the last safe havens around. Even the Japanese Yen wouldn't be a safe haven bet while tensions with the North Koreans seems to mount every day. So, while I am in the short trade, we all need to be on the watch for Black Swan events. This week may be the proverbial quiet before the storm! But, until then, my technical analysis does show that Gold right now is a short side trade. In addition to everything I've been calling out the last week on this, I have drawn a couple of orange lines on the chart which show a clear divergence between the last high of the year from last Friday on the price chart verses the QStick indicator on the bottom. QStick is a Rate of Change indicator and it is showing that the month long bull run has lost it's steam. A pullback to the 21 day moving average at 1263 is very reasonable. To complete the picture, take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. We've now had a red doji followed by a very weak red candle. If you do stay in a trade over this potentially volatile weekend, please use good money management techniques to protect your account. :-) Disclaimer: This post is for education purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Continues to Sell OffGold sold off sharply on Wednesday, closing the day down 8 points. The Heikin-Ashi candle finally turned red and the level on the QStick indicator at the bottom of the chart has now turned orange. All this signifies that the pressure to the downside continues. Whether or not this is anything more than a temporary selloff from the extremely overbought condition is still not clear. What is clear though is that further downward movement should bring price down to at least the 1263 area which is the mid point of the Bollinger Bands. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GoldBands
Natural Gas Closes Between 7 and 21 Day Moving AveragesThe price of Natural Gas rose on Wednesday, hitting a high of 3.223 before selling off and closing at 3.143, smack in the middle of the 7 and 21 day moving averages. The slight rise in the closing price did cause the background of the haDelta indicator to turn blue. However, the QStick indicator below that is still showing downward movement. The Heikin Ashi chart below shows that there have now been 3 HA dojis in the last 4 days. While my bias is still to the downside, we'll need to pay close attention to price movement over the rest of the week.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Falters Amid Profit Taking at Over Bought LevelsGold closed flat on the day after pushing up into the 2 to 3 Std Dev Bollinger Bands. The low of the day was at the .618 Fib level. The daily haDelta also turned red today (top indicator) although the weekly haDelta remains bullish (middle indicator). So while it is clear that Gold is over bought, there is no confirmation yet that the uptrend is over. I will be watching to see the reaction at the 1277 level which is where both the 7 day moving average and the upper Keltner Channels are. The Heikin Ashi candles remain bullish, both on the daily and weekly charts. This tells me that we are still in a buy the dip mode. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands
Natural Gas Drops Below Upper Bollinger Bands to End 6 Week RiseOn Tuesday, Natural Gas dropped .10 points to close just above the 21 day moving average. This is a potential end to the last move up which began on Feb 22 of this year. If price can break through the 21 day moving average, I would expect price to continue selling off until a tag of the lower Bollinger Band which now sits at 2.9. The potential downturn is supported by 2 consecutive red Heikin-Ashi candles and the haDelta indicator now turning red.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by GoldBands
Gold Rallies and Pushes to Upper Bollinger BandGold rallied hard today, gaining almost 20 points on the day. On the way to the new monthly high for April, Gold shot past last Friday's high and didn't pause as it continued it's ascent to the outer Bollinger Band, which is set at 2 Std Dev from the midline. Monday's red Heikin-Ashi candle is now well in the rear-view mirror as well. And all along, the haDelta indicator did not flash red, staying a solid blue since April 4. Most of the time, after a big move in Gold, the market pauses for a day before giving any signal of the next move. I am watching for a pullback to the inner 1.5 Bollinger Band (which is at 1270) which is also at the same level as the Keltner Channel (yellow). A nice rejection of that level would indicate that a new up wave in the precious metal is about to begin. Bullish Heikin-Ashi chart Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands
Gold Stays Range-Bound After Friday's KnockdownOn Monday, Gold closed up .8 points but did not recover any of the momentum after last Friday's explosive move up and then equally explosive sell off to end the day and the week. After that action last Friday, Gold continues to trade within a tight range that started on March 22. It is obvious that the Bollinger Bands are contracting and the haDelta is poised to cross over to the downside. In addition, Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was red (see chart below). The overall outlook, at this point, is Neutral. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!
by GoldBands
Gold Recovers but Continues to Move SidewaysGold ended Wednesday down .6 points, making a late day recovery after selling off strongly to start the day. So while gold did close above the 7 day moving average, price continues to move sideways. The haDelta indicator is also still bullish but is showing definite signs of slowing down and even possible changing course. And if, in fact, price does move down, the haDelta would be showing a major diveregence between price and the last 2 peaks ( see yellow line ) Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!
by GoldBands
Gold Rises to Top of Month Long RangeOn Monday, Gold continued Friday's move up and rose 2.1 points to close at 1254. I have highlighted the month long range on the chart. Price also closed above the 7 day moving average and the haDelta has turned back to blue. In addition, the upper Bollinger Band has started to move higher to 1271.90 And the Heikin-Ashi chart below shows a strong potential trend change. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!
by GoldBands
Gold Falls Below Support LevelsGold closed down 3.7 points on Thursday, falling through support levels at the 7 day moving average and the inner Bollinger Band. While it's not clear if this is going to be a long or short lived downward correction, I am banking on price hitting the 21 day moving average at 1232.90. As I've said before, when price breaks through the 7 day moving average, the is a high statistical probability that price will then touch the 21 day moving average. As for the Heikin-Ashi signals, we now have two consecutive red Heikin-Ashi candles and the daily haDelta indicator has turned red. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GCM2017Short
by GoldBands
Gold Stays Bound within Monday's RangeGold closed down 2 points on Wednesday, once again finding support at the confluence of moving averages and the inner Bollinger Band. While not moving lower than support, price stayed contained within Monday's candle and is setting up for a potential 'Rising Three Methods' pattern. This pattern starts with a long green body that is followed by three small body days, each fully contained within the range of the high and low of the first day. Then the fifth day closes at a new high. If this plays out, then Friday would be the day for price to hit the outer Bollinger Band which is now at 1267.30. While the indicators are still green, the Heikin-Ashi candles are showing a potential end of the up move which you can see on the chart above. Certainly the Heikin-Ashi doji on Wednesday is not inspiring a lot of confidence for the bulls. I recommend protecting your profits and tightening stops. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by GoldBands