A siren call if ever I heard one. This market may end up lower.The most important thing I am noticing that I do not hear anyone talking about is that Utilities have been cycled into discretely over the past month .
1-Month Performance
Utilities +5.61%
Consumer Cyclical +2.18%
Financial -1.35%
Energy -6.9%
1-Week Performance
Utilities -2.28%
Consumer Cyclical -2.71%
Heathcare -3.1%
Basic Materials -6.24%
It was wise to go risk off in preparation of the election. If there is a contested election the market could sell off in the uncertainty.
The market was slowly rising higher on stimulus hopes, and with stimulus not having a chance of being negotiated until the results of the election - a contested election could drag chance of fiscal policy further out with the market selling off till it finds a resolution.
Just as stimulus was a catalysts for a melt up no fiscal stimulus is a catalysts for a melt down.
Keep in mind this selling volume is closing at lows of the day now, with higher than usual volume. This has all the typical signs of a bear market forming- why would volume be rising if everyone was just feeling peachy about how great there investments are doing? People adjust portfolios usually when they NEED to, not when they want to and that drums up the volume even louder.
The final point I want to make is the spike in volatility. When the VIX springs out like this you can not deny that people are willing to pay high premiums because they want bearish leverage in the options market.
You do not see the VIX spring up to levels like this because #bullgang went gangbusters buying debit call spreads.
My strategy is to open a Put Vertical on /ESZ0 Futures - expiring Nov 6th (9d)
Buy to Open 3240 Put
Sell to Open 3185 Put
Capital Requirement: $950
Max Loss: $950
Max Gain: $1,800
Probability of Profit 42%
Theta is low because it is in a spread
Bollingersband
Cryto Trading 101: Bollinger Bands And VolatilityHave you always wondered how to identify when Bitcoin is volatile and in which direction it is heading? You’re in luck – you can identify both volatility and direction with Bollinger Bands!
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a volatility indicator displayed by a moving average and an upward and lower band. Both bands are typically 2 standard deviations away. When the bands tighten (as it is the case right now), there is less volatility in the market, and a big move is expected to occur soon after. When the bands are very far apart, the market volatility is considered to be very high. The 1-day chart usually works best in determining the overall market volatility and direction.
Bollinger Bands can also be used to identify the direction of the market. For example, when the bands are tight, and then the price breaks through the upward band and the EMA points upwards at the same time, the indicator suggests that a bullish trend has commenced.
Traders can combine the Bollinger Bands with the RSI crossovers (the RSI with crossovers will signal a buy when the RSI goes from oversold to normal). This strategy works well to identify when the market has recovered from a severe crash and it is marked by the green circles on the chart. In the crypto market, this strategy is typically used on shorter time frames (≤ 4h), to provide more accurate signals.
Other indicators that can work well with Bollinger Bands are moving averages. For instance, you can use the Bollinger Bands to find a dip in the market, and then use the crossover of the 1 and 15 EMA to enter a position once the trend is back in your favor.