BOND
US Yield curve... clock is tickingHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Flight to safety driving gold higher, yields lower and USD upAs the stock market starts to stumble, people look for safe places like Bonds, all those bond purchases drives the USD higher since you need to buy them in USD so it creates greater demand, this increase in USD would normally be bad for Gold. But Gold is actually going up right now since it is safe haven asset, that demand is off setting the negative effects of the USD, it has finally uncoupled the 2, the gold rally might finally be there.
Potential 30Y Bond ShortVolume capitulation on Month CAM S3 backtest. $USO $XLF $TLT $IEF $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Bonds ,rising like foam¡¡bonds, they rise like the foam and that as the past represented a problem, (inversion of the curve of interest ratios) now this has not yet been presented,
but to follow this trend with the strength it has, in a not too distant time the yield of the bond can get out of control
10Y US/DE : Bond market distortion at historical bounderies...This is loooong term chart here, but the process in motion is a really dangerous one because it concerns the bond market that is supporting every bit of the investment process and credit liability throughout the market. This spread between german and US yielding is reaching long term dangerous levels of distortion and may lead to some credit troubles.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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US10Y is watching the world now...US10Y is watching the world now. The exchange rate is in the form of a downward correction and a double rising waveform. The bottom of the current correction is 3,013 The current waveform (BC) can be of a similar size to the predecessor first wave structure (0A). If the technical identification is correct, the (BC) wave structure target price is 3.289
Bond Markets as a leading Indicator for futere sentimentHere is a trade based in 100% Fundamental approach.
BUT: Always limit your risk regardless how strong your conviction is. ALWAYS!
Trade safe, Trade well
Bearish move in the 10yr US yieldAfter forming a somewhat imperfect rising wedge, a bearish breakout confirmed.
US10Y levelsFlash crash yesterday across equity markets pushed bonds higher for a brief reprieve in what has been a one way trend since september 2017.
The low set in place yesterday came in at the bottom of the schiff pitchfork level & the current spike higher being capped at it's .382 level. Circled upside level is the .382 retrace off sept 2017 -> feb 2018, the .382 2007 -> 2012 & the 50dma. RSI making a breakout, look for closing level.
Bund right above major support, prepare for a potential bounce!
Bund is hovering really nicely above major support at 160.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a bounce could occur at this level. If price breaks through our descending resistance line, this would add much more conviction to the potential bounce up to 161.88 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
RSI (34) also sees a descending resistance line holding price down really well. Only a break above this could trigger a corresponding bullish bounce in price.
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ZBU2017 - September T-Bond Futures - Daily and Weekly ReviewDAILY - Double NR7 is making T-Bonds look like there is a shorterm top in place. Trend is still up. Price > 20 (155'01),50,100,200 DMA, with all but the 200 in a positive slope. Strong moving average convergence in the 154'24-155'02 area. Looking to buy a pullback. Long end has been strong with the flattening of the yield curve, this is the current macro trend, anything here should be seen as an adjustment in the curve and profit taking.
WEEKLY - To the moon! Held the 200WkMA and have rallied nicely up from there. Above the 20WkMA as well. Also, the longterm RSI is above its moving average and crossed the 50 line with positive slope. First Resistance viewed at the 50/100WkMA area 158'08 and then the election drop point at 162'00. As in the daily, the macro economics of the flattening yield curve with even some pundits talking inverted should keep the trade in an up trend. As traders watch price action and keep an eye on the TLT as it has a projection point of 131 right now which would line up with the $ZB_F getting to the 160+ area.
6.19.2017 Trade Idea: TLTIf you are interested in more of our trades, check out our profile and Tradingview Indicator @ChaoticTrader
Reflation trade wanes in US, second try may be staged in EUThe European currency made piece with the US dollar for several days maintaining relative equilibrium around 1.14. Two major rivals suspend struggle amid a leveling yield curve in the German and US bond markets. Talking heads optimism over global growth momentum caused investors to dampen low-yield bonds while the release of the weak report of the NFP and Fed Minutes managed to partially reverse the trend.
The minutes of June ECB meeting also turned out to be rather ambiguous: the forecast for core inflation were downgraded to 1.4% in 2018, with the economy sticking to the line of pickup, the report suggests. Wages respond to the rest of the positive in the economy quite badly - due to the structural features of the labor market of the eurozone. The Phillips curve, suggesting an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, was practically flattened, indicating a very weak connection of wages with a jobless rate.
However, if the reflationary forces mentioned by Mario Draghi are only gaining momentum in the euro area, investors in the United States have already lost faith in them. The large-scale reforms that were part of Trump's election campaign for the most part have not yet been implemented and investors are beginning to lose patience, preparing for market correction. And if the dollar has already demonstrated this disappointment, then flattening indices curve may prove to a be first sign of bearish consolidation. The industrial DOW index shows signs of attempts to establish a downward pressure, which have so far been successfully eliminated. Bulls may be ready to withdraw from the US indices causing massive drop and move into European assets waiting for the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen speech. In her address on Wednesday and Thursday, she will probably try to support the US currency by saying that the regulator will soon need to start reducing the balance sheet and the economy needs at least one more rate hike. However, weak wage growth, as follows from a recent NFP report, will probably make statements less hawkish.
Among other positive moments there is rising volume of consumer lending in the US economy. In May, US borrowers received $18 billion in loans, $5 billion more than forecasts, what indirectly indicates a possible increase in consumption and high economic confidence.
The oil market stroke by negative news on demand outlook. Consumer inflation in China slowed to 1.5%, with a forecast of 1.6%, indicating a weakening of economic growth. Mortgage loans declined in Australia to 1%, which plays in favor of keeping the RBA low interest rates, indicating some cooling of the real estate market.
Regards,
Idiatulin Arthur
Tickmill Analyst
US1. T-Bonds. Trades of 2017, number 1US1 is completing an eventual Cypher pattern and soon will be ready for another leg up. Notice a bullish divergence on a weekly timeframe: such a big timeframe indicates this last leg up will be important and will take some months to develop. But on overall return, in my opinion, it will be one of the best trades of next year.
Notice as well that, despite having tagged the Median Line of the fork, price is heading towards the Hagopian Line. The projected target lays right on the 23.6% Fibo which is a completion point for a bullish Cypher pattern.
Long entry will be placed around 140, with a SL order at 125 and TP1 at 190, with TP2: at 207
float listFLOT Ishares Floating Rate Bond Etf 0.16% 0.32% 50.89 50.38 0.00% 50.84 Buy Strong Buy 50.85 768.111K
DRIP Direxion Daily S&p Oil Services Bear 3x Shares 43.89% -9.72% 54.75 10.28 -0.99% 17.92 Buy Strong Buy 19.08 779.961K
CHKP Check Point Software Tech Ltd 6.54% 32.90% 104.64 74.34 0.30% 103.05 Buy Strong Buy 103.41 1.036M
EL Lauder Estee Cos Inc 9.05% -1.87% 97.48 75.30 -0.91% 85.37 Sell Buy 85.18 1.502M
EWU Ishares Msci United Kingdom Etf 4.05% 6.58% 33.13 27.60 0.03% 32.44 Sell Buy 32.37 1.577M
ERY Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3x Shares 23.63% -3.99% 21.50 8.59 0.08% 11.84 Buy Strong Buy 12.41 1.809M
SPLV Powershares S&p 500 Low Volatility Portfolio 5.01% 7.46% 44.01 39.61 0.05% 43.52 Buy Strong Buy 43.61 1.873M
KCG Kcg Hldgs Inc 44.37% 29.00% 19.78 11.74 -0.15% 18.29 Buy Strong Buy 19.75 2.66M
CYTK Cytokinetics Inc 27.83% 46.49% 14.35 7.18 4.78% 12.76 Buy Strong Buy 14.25 6.551M
P
TLT-Looking to buy if support holds.Technically speaking
The ~116 level contains a confluence of support. The trendline going back to 2011 and the low prints going back to 2015 should provide support. We shall see.
On the updside, 128 is the first level of resistance.
What to do?
I will be looking to dips around the 116 level, targeting a move back toward 128. My willingness to buy will depend on price action around the 116 level.
I will update this chart when things change.
