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Today's 100B convertible announcement confirms downtrendPre-Market announcement of US$100M Short-Term Convertible. Unfortunately, this confirms the assumptions I made in my latest video on my YT channel "DONGXii" > NIO is cash strapped and not able to close a big financing round. > 1B funding rumours with GAC will not materialise (for now). > Strategy is to finance operations through creating cash flow by selling cars, which I find very dangerous considering NIO reported dramatically lower average selling prices (ASP), Q1 is usually the weakest quarter for all automotive OEM in terms of sales, impact of corona virus. > Issuing bond after bond with goal of securing larger sum at terms accepted by management including CEO Li Bin. > 🔥 Playing with fire: 100M USD in convertible funding. 200M+ USD burn rate. My prediction is that NIO will be stuck in downward channel and will only find support in the 3 USD area. If by then a real funding round of around 1B is finally announced and secured, it may break out again opening a bullish reversal. Otherwise NIO could even break below 3USD. You can see my video I posted on my DONGXii YT channel to get the detailed reasons on the funding situation. I was all correct to suggest that NIO tries to fund for now by going bond by bond. This is very dangerous and should be recognised by the market! Meanwhile I stay neutral on the stock.
NYSE:NIO
by DONGXii_com
U.S T-Note Bearish Scenario by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION: On this timeframe, we can see how price tried to break the Top of the Ascending Channel multiple times but failed. Now, there is MACD Bearish Divergence which indicates that the trend is getting weaker. There is a middle trendline inside the channel, so, the movement may try to reach that zone, and if it is broke, then the bottom of the Ascending Channel would be next target. MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS: -Daily: -Weekly:
UShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
Main Eur/Usd Analysis The price touched the support area set at 1.112 with a post-conference Draghi spike. Causing the stop loss closing on our trade. After it return immediately to the closing level of yesterday's session . Technically, this pair is in a stalemate taking the last six months as a time reference. In fact, the trend has no longer taken a specific direction, continuing to move between the support at 1,112 and the resistance at 1,144. If a time frame of a year and a half is taken into consideration the direction of EURUSD tends to fall. And now we do not see changes of scenery. For the next year and a half we expect the main trend to be maintained and that as final target the area 1.08/1.06 can be reached. This with minor cycles which could also lead to significant bounces. A new cycle should start with the next FED meeting at the end of July. Despite the spike a few hours ago that caused a false break in the support area, we expect a drop in the US currency for the rest of the summer. The objective is the upward break in the resistance zone at 1,144. The maximum extension of this first mini-cycle could be around 1,158. This level is identified by the EMA200 weekly which acts as a dynamic resistance of extreme importance for the short term. Fundamental Analysis At a fundamental level, the scenario that is taking shape is the following. Draghi stated that expectations on future rates are not the best. In fact, it expects that rates could remain unchanged (or even cut) for at least another year. In addition we could see a second edition of quantitative easing. The government bond purchase program, is being studied in Frankfurt. These statements, once implemented, will negatively weigh for the Euro, which will devalue against the other majors. So for the next year and a half, as we said, we expect a continuation of the main trend on this pair. On the other hand, however, on the Fed side, the devaluation of its currency should, make EURUSD carry out this bullish mini-cycle. The market and investors expect at least two cuts of a quarter of a point by the end of the year. To summarize We expect a climb in the very short/short term. Eur/Usd is ready for the bounce and we recommend repositioning long with the final target of the 1,158 (intermediate targets 1,132; 1,144). Stop at 1.103
Long
by BFCMInvest
Interest Rate Spikes Precede CorrectionsNotice the downward trend in the US10Y since the 80's, while government, corporate and consumer debt has exploded to all time highs. The achilles heel of massive debt levels are high interest rates, which end up causing slowed growth and economic contraction. With ever higher levels of debt, the level of interest required to put the economy in pain falls over time - thus why we see crashes and corrections even as the US10Y spikes to levels far below the historical average (~6.18%). Last year we popped above the "danger zone" trend line and we saw what happened. Watch out for interest rate spikes, it can save your ass.
SP:SPXEducation
by Derivati_Capital
3
BND Trendline Warns of Future DownsideBND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record levels of monetary injection, the bond market will continue to drop. We are in the danger zone here, watching the bond market is crucial to timing the coming drop. I do not suggest going short until the following conditions are met: 1. Bond market drops considerably over any time frame (testing that critical level of pre-2008 crash or extreme velocity). 2. Stock market begins to face reality - depends on the velocity of rising rates (faster = sooner).
SP:SPXShort
by Derivati_Capital
1
If BND Ever Does This Again, Beware29th of November, 2007 - bond market experiences a flash crash which is quickly bought up by the FED in an effort to prevent widespread debt defaults. Worked for a few months only for companies to begin defaulting anyway, probably through a series of realized margin or interest spike risks. This is what caused the financial markets to implode in 2008. Watch and study the bond market, it can tell you more about medium to long-term market direction than any other indicator.
NASDAQ:BND
by Derivati_Capital
3
EURUSD Vs. Yields 10 - 5 years.High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro. There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines. European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the largest economies in the EU. ECB´s ending of QE program have left the Central bank with less tools to stimulate the economy. A restart of the bond buying program will put questions on the politics taken from the CB and will place them in a situation where the market will think that they dont know what they are doing. If they choose to use some tools the only option they have is the "TLTRO" (Targeted longer-term refinancing operations) Which will give the banks some available liquidity to lend money out and push the economie for some growth. The risk of a possible recession in the EU can give some concerns if the CB will raise rates at Q4 2019. A slowdown in the Chinese economy will also affect the EU, as China is one of the biggest importer of the european products. At the same time IMF downgrades global economic growth, while U.S. economy also saw some downgrade of its growth forecast. I still see the U.S economy performing better than the European. Holding shorts on EURUSD - adding more at a break of 1.11060 with target at 1.0380 and 1.0600. Hedging from those levels and watching the price before going net long position. Break of these levels could result in a further move down to 0.9600. Closing of shorts, and entering long positions will be at 1.16700 with target of 1.21300
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Gaps Gaps GapsLooking at Netflix Netflix has had some fomo over the last few causing price to gap. Gaps generally like to be filled in 92% of the time. Currently price is heading towards the 618 which tells me that people will be looking for shorts. My short zone highlighted in red is from the 786 to the 618. VPVR is showing a big notch around $225 which eventually price needs to fill in With price surging higher it is sending the indicators into over bought territory I will be looking for signals in the "Short zone" looking for M tops and bearish divergence to take profit. * Don't forget to hit that like button and follow me on Trading View for more chart analysis :)
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Cryptonite_trader
Gold shines with falling real yields This chart compares the real yield of 10 year Treasuries (bottom red) to XAUUSD (top). The real yield is the yield that a treasury buyer can expect to earn after inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation between real rates and the price of gold over time. Research by _Erb and Harvey showed a negative 82% correlation between real interest rates and gold prices from 1997 to 2012 (The Golden Dilemma). The real yield on long term treasuries was over 3% in 2000 and fell to a negative yield in 2012-2013. During this period of time the price of gold gained over 600%. And in reverse from 2012 the real yield increased approximately 1% to 2015, while the price of gold fell almost 40% during this time. Gold is relatively expensive when the real yield on treasuries is high, and relatively cheap when the real yield on treasuries is low. If an investor can gain a high real yield after inflation by holding a 'risk free' treasury, then the opportunity cost of holding gold is comparatively high. This makes gold relatively less attractive since gold pays neither dividend nor interest. Treasury investors lose money during negative interest rates (when inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate). This makes gold more attractive despite having no yield.
ULong
by dime
1