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Bondmarket

US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
2
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment. The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89. The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020. Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more. The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades. 60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023. If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here. If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates. The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
1
Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for the Federal ReserveIn recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This can be a cause for concern because it can indicate that investors are expecting economic growth to slow in the future. When investors expect the economy to slow, they are less likely to lend money for long periods of time, leading to higher interest rates on short-term bonds and lower interest rates on long-term bonds. The current yield curve inversion has many experts worried. In the past, an inverted yield curve has often been a reliable predictor of a recession. In fact, every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. One reason for the current inversion may be the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates several times in recent years in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating. However, these rate hikes may have had the unintended consequence of slowing economic growth. Despite the potential risks, experts believe that the current yield curve inversion may not be as concerning as it seems. They argue that other factors, such as the strong job market and low unemployment rate, suggest that the economy is still in good shape. In the end, only time will tell if the bond market's concerns are justified. However, the Federal Reserve will need to closely monitor the situation and be prepared to take action if necessary to prevent a potential recession.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by JoelWarby
2
There is no bottom in the stock without a bottom in the bond My Dashboard on Tradingview www.tradingview.com where I am monitoring the entire bond market in the world with my magma indicator, country by country. When investing for the long term I first look the bond market before leaping in the stocks. There are few simple and important rules to follow in this market. 1. Higher Bond yields = Lower Bond Prices = Bottom in the bond market is more bottom 2. Short-mid term bond yields is closing to long-term yields (example 2-Years yield = 10-Years yield) = This means flattening = not good for long-term investment, stay alerting for your paper profits. 3. Short-mid term bond yields is greater than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is greater than 10-Years yield) = This means inversion = not good, imminent fear of recession (remember: stock market does not perform well during recessions) 4. Short-mid-term bond yields is less than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is less than 10-Years yield and going lower) = That's fine, economics sounds good for long-term investments What I see now: United States, Canada, Brazil are countries with the most prolongated inversion areas (highlighted with red circles in the figure above). 5. More prolongated inversion = not good, even more. Flattening areas (yellow circles) have to be carefully monitored. Few examples currently are showing good news (green circles) : Japan long-term and mid-term yield curves are fine and in the good direction. Same as in Australia.
FX:JPN225Education
by giancarlopagliaroli
1
The Bank of England to end gilt purchase programEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Amidst domestic financial turbulences, the Bank of England announced an emergency program to purchase UK government bonds - which will end on Friday. The decision was made public earlier by the central bank’s governor, a sudden spike in the Claimant Count Change readings to 25,500 was also detrimental to the British Pound, which made GBP/USD plunge below the 1.100 level to 1.0963, losing over 100 pips. EUR/USD first closed at 0.9703 with minor gains, then climbed to a high of 0.9773, currently at 0.9684. The European continent had growing tensions after the Russian retaliation targeted Ukrainian civilians, as a mobilization in Belarus becomes more likely. Fearing a resurgence of the pandemic in China, AUD/USD closed lower at 0.627, and briefly peaked at 0.6342. A possible stall in oil consumption also sees WTI oil futures gradually declining to $89.35 a barrel. Gold was last traded at $1,666.29 an ounce amidst a volatile session. USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3796, though the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released early tomorrow morning, the market doesn’t expect new insights to swat the Federal Reserve’s determined hawkish stance.
by Mitrade_official
US Bond yields rising as the market slows downEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD ▶️ USD/CAD 🔽 XAU ▶️ WTI ▶️ As the US bond yield curve remains inverted, bond yields are fueled by the imminent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 3.514%, and the 2-year bond yield went higher to 3.934%. Although the stock market did slightly recover from yesterday’s losses, the forex and commodities markets looked quiet otherwise. Major currencies recorded minor gains against the greenback, EUR/USD closed at 1.0022, GBP/USD added 17 pips to 1.1429, and USD/CAD decreased to 1.3248. The latest meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained their monetary tightening policy to control inflation, and expect further rate hikes ahead, the Aussie / Dollar pair mostly traded flat, with a closing price of 0.6727. For now, recession fears have canceled out positive signals in the market. Gold futures were little changed at $1,678.2 an ounce, WTI oil futures briefly dipped to $82.15 per barrel before returning to $85.36. More information on Mitrade website
by Mitrade_official
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame. Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:US10Y
by vikinsa
German Bund yields: secular reversalGerman Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line. Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before. The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level (all-time highs of 1981 to all-time lows of 2020). Breaking above 2% could then see the 3.7-3.8% yield as target (2009 highs and 38.2% Fibonacci). The ECB's forthcoming interest-rate hikes and Germany's rising inflation trend, which reached 7.9% in August, the highest level since German reunification, can exert substantial upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months. In particular, the market may begin factoring in a greater volume of Bund emissions from the German state as a means of financing an expanding deficit caused by energy subsidies. The latest €65bn package is worth more than 3% of the German's GDP. With the ECB expected to reduce (or completely stop) government bond purchases, the German government would need to find buyers who demand higher yields due to rising interest rates and inflation. The current real rate of Bunds (the difference between the nominal and inflationary rates) is -6%, which is close to the lowest level ever. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:DE10Y
by Capitalcom
Update on long duration bondsHello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion, the drop over the last two days was caused mainly by Pelosi visiting Taiwan and bonds getting overbought on lower timeframes. The 30y yields were rejected at the monthly pivot, while the 10y yields bounced at support and were denied at resistance. Yields are still in a short-term bearish trend, and there is no confirmation of a reversal yet, although the trend might have changed. It all depends on the situation between China and the US, as the more the tensions between those countries increase, the higher inflation will be, and therefore the higher rates will be. If China starts aggressively selling US bonds, this could create chaos in the funding markets. If the US starts banning Chinese imports or exports, the US bond market could explode, and yields go to the moon. This would force the Fed to step in and do unlimited QE / yield curve control. Essentially we are stuck in a scenario of mutually assured destruction here, and there is no way either one will come out as a winner in the short term. I believe that we are in a deflationary/disinflationary period, which could be disturbed at any moment if China invades Taiwan. The Russia/Ukraine war pushed inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to start slowing down, and a China/Taiwan war could push inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to slow down. TLT could quickly reach 125-135 in the next few months. However, I don't believe bond yields are going negative soon. It will be challenging for the market to have negative nominal yields when inflation is so high and at a time when the Fed might be forced to intervene and do YCC.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
The Problem With JapanIn this video we discuss the current macro economic problems facing the Bond market and anticipate that regardless of what happens we will see dislocations (volatility) in a number of different markets. The problems with Japan stems from their monetary policy to implement Yield Curve Control (YCC) where they are committed to keeping their interest rates between +0.25% & -0.25% with the targeted rate as 0%. As global inflation is hitting consumers hard and all over the world central banks move to increase interest rates & lower economic stimulus introduced during COVID-19, Japan's 10Yr Government Bond (JGB) Yield is at the upper limit of their band (currently trading at 0.22%). As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) now steps into the market and buy as many bonds as required for the market to maintain the desired interest rate it could very easily start to drag other global bond yields such as the US 10Yr Bond lower with it... the exact opposite of what central bankers want right now in order to battle inflation. Its situations such as this that historically have meant inflation runs out of control and causes catastrophic impacts on the economies of the world, or the flip side to this situation is that Japan is forced to abandon the current band of YCC and accept the inevitable negative effect this would have on both domestic and global Stock markets. My prediction for how this plays out is that at least for the meantime the global market follows the JGB Yield and starts a correction until this starts to cause real issues for inflation to the extent that central bankers start introducing things such as emergency rate hikes... essentially central bankers may hope they can get away with no increasing rates because they analyse inflation to be "transitory". In this situation I will be looking at the following trades: USDJPY Short Gold Long Nasdaq Long Let me know your own thoughts in the comments below & feel free to share this with any friends.
TVC:US10Y
by JoelWarby
3
The US Bond Market Explained. You will hear many people in finance and in trading tell you that the bond market is the most important market to understand because it influences every other market in the world… particularly the US Bond market. 

In this video I am going to try and explain what the Bond market is for anyone new to trading or still learning about the bond market and then I will give you a prediction of where I think the market is moving next. 

All within 20 minutes because that’s the limit on TradingView videos.

I will try to keep the terminology as simple as possible and jargon free for people still learning about this market but if at all you want any further explanation on anything covered, simply drop a comment below and I will do my best to answer them all. Basics - Two main elements to the bond market… 

1) Bond prices “Called a premium”, simply, this is the price you pay to buy a bond.
 2) Bond Yields. These are how much interest you are paid on that bond and are described in percentage terms.

 As with any asset price, the prices of bonds are largely determined by supply and demand forces. 

 Typically, investors buy more bonds (and demand goes up) when the economy is projected to perform badly because bonds are regarded as one of the safest assets in the market.
 & 
Investors sell more bonds when they expect the economy to do well because they want to use that money to buy riskier assets such as stocks that will provide better returns in the economic good times. 

 These two elements in bonds are INVERSELY CORRELATED. 

 So when the Bond price goes up, the yield on offer goes down. 
& 
when the bond prices go down, the yield goes up. 

 Finally the last basic point to explain for anyone new to trading or the bond market is that the duration of the bond is also important to consider when analysing the bond market. 

The most common bond is the 10YR but there’s also 30YR bonds and 1YR bonds available and the duration of the bond is the amount of time that the “premium” is locked up for… after the duration the premium is then paid back to the investor. 

Each of these bonds durations perform differently depending on investors sentiments. So hopefully that has given a brief overview of what the bond market is and explained the basics of how it works. In the video above I explain the next steps that the bond market may have including projection 10YR yields of 3% or more to come! And the potentially dangerous consequences that could have for markets.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
3
Bonds and the vitality of the market and overarching economy.In this chart, I find it important to (as an economist) monitor treasuries and bonds, luckily Tradingview has us covered there. The next few charts will be some economic correlations so we can better understand the economy before I get into the meat and potatoes of this system . As you can see, bonds and treasuries are dropping which indicates selling. Big name bond investors are spooked, and looking at it from this perspective I can see why. Take a second to think back to the start of 2020 and the 'thing that wont be named'. Think of ALL the BS that has happened in this timeframe, If I had big money in bonds right now, I would be spooked myself. I will be getting into detail in a later economic chart about just some of the crap that must be on big investors minds.
FRED:DGS30
by Joshuakm
Interest Rates Topping?/TLT Finally Making a Bottom?/Looks like the craze over high interest rates is coming to a congestion zone. If you go back to 2019, there were hella buyers at $135. I think we are getting to the point where such high interest rates, while the stock market is still skyrocketing, and yet the global economy has not recovered; or said better, investors are in denial. When interest rates are low, and the stock market is high - that's inflationary. When interest rates are high, and the stock market is high (making ATHs), and yet we are in the eye of a deleveraging, currency crisis - I can't help but anticipate a top on both rates and the stock market. At some point, the Fed will have to get people to buy bonds, or they'll do it themselves, to push down the long-end, and I think the stock market will get cold feet, and start selling off. That being said, there could be something more nefarious happening that we just aren't taking into account, which is the Fed just continuing the "we need to push inflation up" narrative until they are blue in the face (idk how they aren't already), and people continue to take on debt and play the euphoric stock market game until financials finally bite people in the ass. The fed knows interest rates going higher, in a crisis like this, is a ticking time bomb, and at some point, will have to give in, but that's the point - they're going to let the system panic and then they'll come in, once again, and lend a hand. What worries me, though, is why would anyone give a shit what they have to say at that point? No one can get loans when banks don't want to lend - e.g. people are in forebearance, people's businesses are closing or on the brink, people are malignantly unemployed in higher and higher numbers - fred.stlouisfed.org We're getting to the point where the risky money has to go somewhere, and it's either bonds, savings accounts, consumer debt, or stocks, and the fed will make damn sure that it's stocks or consumer debt. But what happens when people are exhausted and don't want to take on debt - or quite frankly just can't? Or when the stock market isn't going any higher and the support zones for every major index is thousands of points down? The money goes into savings, banks go insolvent due to lesser and lesser risk-on sentiment, and they dive into treasurys to find a safe haven for liquidity, and boom - you've got negative interest rates. I'm fairly certain this will be the case this year, and the Fed will, again, be forced to ramp up the emergency SPVs like we've never seen before, and virtually breaking every rule in the book so that banks stay solvent, and people continue to take on loans.
TVC:US10YShort
by MoneybagsMcGee
3