Get started

Bondmarket

Buy Gold and Sell StocksThe S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly outperformed Gold since 2015. Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital in an interview from March 4th talked about the corporate bond bubble beginning to burst. He said the Fed would cut rates 50 basis points at the next FOMC. (They very well might cut before that.) He said he believes gold will go to a new all-time high. He also talked about how financial stocks in Japan are down 85% ever since they adopted zero rates 20 years ago. For that reason I think there's little reason to think that the SPX or the NASDAQ is going to bounce into a mega rally. I think there's a lot of reason to think that lots of money is going to flow into gold and silver. Even in the worst case scenario - a 2008 style crash - gold will fall much less than stocks. Gold stocks may take a significant beating. For that reason it may be strategic to reduce mining exposure here and increase gold and silver exposure gradually. The speed of the DXY 's fall the last 2 weeks tells me that it has the potential to fall a lot further if Fed Monetary policy expands tremendously. If that is the case, I don't think gold has much downside in this scenario versus 2008. But I think US indices as well as gold stocks have higher risk here. If the Fed is slow in cutting rates and never steps in front of the market until it crashes, then expect a 2008 type of event that may not be gold-negative.
TVC:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
1
TLT Inverse Bond Play Before MeetingThe play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am feeling very comfortable with the prices I got for my OTM calls and the ROI. I'll update later today after the meeting which is less than two hours away currently. Happy trading everyone, try and be as positive of an impact as you can be everyday. Good luck with any of your plays today -golddolphin
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by golddolphin
2
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver Miners on Metals Pullback It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities. At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally breaking lower, silver looks poised to outperform on this next leg up. I am not actively shorting the metals, merely patiently waiting for this opportunity to accumulate even more shares in my list of miners. However, given the current state of affairs around the world, it is entirely possible this pullback never comes and that we move higher from here. I am hedged against that possibility by being presently invested and continuously adding to my investments in junior & small cap miners. In my opinion, if this scenario plays out where gold does not correct first, it will ultimately not be ideal for gold long-term and will likely result in a painful crash in the metals.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
10Y US TREASURY NOTE|PREMIUM[LONG-TERM]PRICE ANALYSIS|PART 1/2|ZN1! : Series on Bonds - Sept 20th 2019(4-5 minute read) This is a two part analysis on the US 10 year Treasury note , the second part analyses the yield. In my opinion, technical analysis is somewhat (okay-ish) effective in analysing bond price action, especially to bonds with longer maturities. This is because they are priced in terms of private expectations. Which are based on market psychology principles that are one of the main foundations for technical analysis. Fundamentally, building models with matrixes of auctions prices is the better method , however as an individual retail trader with limited time, it's quite an unrealistic thing for me to do. Now, let's begin by analysing the structural wave build up. The closing monthly top on Wave 1 after the 2001 recession(~117$) provided for the impulsive wave buildup. Unfortunately, I would have prefered if the data extended back to 1984 for a more accurate trend analysis, but from the current chart a precise EW buildup can be observed. Wave 3 (top 134) happened after the 2008 recession. Both of these bullish waves continued to form, despite an official NBER recession ending announcement. In my opinion, a more accurate estimation of the recovery in the economy can be observed from the bond market as compared to purely basing such an observation from equities . Despite the official end of the recession being June 2009, the unemployment rate peaked later that year . I know it's extremely inappropriate to perform a trend analysis on the unemployment rate, but this is just to support my previous argument and strictly informational. What are the expectations moving forward? Similarly to the WXY 03'-07' expansion , the current WXY expansion (12'-19') is near its ending. Perhaps with the current " mid-cycle" rate adjustments and medium fiscal stimulus the cycle could extend . If a US/China deal gets done and cycle extension does happen, it won't completely undermine the increased probability of a recession in the next 3 years . What further complicates things are the 2 020 US elections, Brexit and the cooling down situation in the Eurozone . Hence, I see a formation of a bullish triangle in Bond prices . Zoomed in chart 2019-2023 potential triangle build up in case a cycle extension happens. To sum up this analysis, in case a recession occurs, based on the wave build up- the maximum target for wave 5, would be in the range of 146-153 . I am not sure if the Wave V would have have a 2.62 extension( based on the already low yields This analysis supports my previous extensive work on FED rate cycles(Link #1 below). The blurry WXY at the end of the chart is what I would expect during the next extension. I have to emphasize that I attempted to find a pattern in the Moving averages and other technical indicators, but came to the conclusion that they are simply not as precise as the Elliott Wave Setup . This is it for part one, make sure to check the much more complicated Part two Yield analysis on the 10 year US T Note. |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| P.s. Would appreciate some feedback charts or simple comments expressing your opinion on the bond market, thanks! >> I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories .>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! Some of my popular analysis relevant to the bond market : 1. RECESSION IMPENDING?(PART2)FED RATES SUPERCYCLE|PREMIUM ANALYSIS: 2. The VIX : 3. XLU - SPX Sectors Finale : Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
The resurrection of the pound & revolution in the bond marketUK monthly retail sales were expected to decrease by 0.2% however, but fortunately, we observe the increase by 0.2%. The pound was trying to gain a foothold above 1.21. Although the attempt failed at the end of the day, we continue to recommend buying the pound both mid-term positions and on the intraday basis. Pound back above $1.21 but not for the log time. US retail sales grew unexpectedly Nevertheless, our recommendation is to sell on the intraday basis as well as medium-term positions - remains unchanged. The situation with the dollar has not changed much - it is too expensive given that the Fed started cutting interest rates and the threat of foreign exchange intervention by the United States. Financial markets, meanwhile, continue to evolve literally before our eyes. Who would have thought a few years ago that investors would be willing to pay extra for the right to lend money? More than $ 16 trillion has been invested by investors in bonds with a negative yield. And the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds fell below 2%, which is a historic low. We live in interesting times. Argentina’s sovereign century bonds tumbled by the most since they were sold in June 2017. Currently, the yield on Argentina's international bonds is close to 100% (!), which made them the cheapest in the world. The yield on dollar bonds of the Argentinean government rose to 27%. Funds that invested in Argentine bonds are suffering huge losses. Considering that Argentina is not an economic dwarf, everything might end badly for the global economy. Thanks to China, yesterday was an opportunity to make good money on our recommendation to sell gold. The asset has grown (1525) on the news that China is threatening the US with countermeasures. It seems like China has felt the strength and is ready to confront the United States. But it is still too early to panic. We still consider such behaviour as preparations for negotiations between the United States and China. The parties are simply trying to gain an advantage in the negotiating position. Recall, in our opinion, gold value is too high. But the situation can change at any time., We continue to monitor the development of events and will continue to keep our readers updated on what is happening and how to make money on it.
Long
by Trade24Fx
JNK / W1 : Overbought & Divergent... Risk down the corner ?NOTE : The low risk trading area reamains higher in the context channel (the gray ribbon) but we're signaling overbought on the trendchannel... This may be a concern if the market reverses here... Cause reversing on trendchannel means there will pbly be a trend trade to come right after... Not the best case scenario for stock though if junks were about to break down the major support trendline. SIDE NOTE : Some analysts say that there is a dangerous bubble in corporate credit... So this may add to the technical view seen here. If anything goes wrong in the sector, junks may be the first to show signs of tension... CONCLUSION : It's not something to trade just like that, more likely something to bare in mind for the coming months... as a potential systematic risk trigger that could cause hell of a panic wave... Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
AMEX:JNK
by PRO_Indicators
EURO - Where the money goes!Here you can see where the money from the euro area flows, among other things. Nobody talks about it and the media sell the "EU people" once again for stupid and tell corresponding fairy tales. The high of the Euro in the third week of February marks the low of 10-year British government bonds. The first of March low in the euro with 1.2124 marks the blue 1 high and the depreciation of the euro in the last few days can be seen nicely as a circled blue 3. In my opinion, no solutions can be brought by the ECB, because this central bank is the largest bad bank of all time. Full of government bonds issued by the "South&Western-States", which have no chance of sustained recovery in the corset of the Eurozone, this zombie portfolio will burst with full force. The only chance to save the EURO for a few more years is the introduction of EURO-Bonds and the Banking Union. This then throws the "German Volkssturm" as the last reserve, with the same outcome as in 1945. The only alternative to Safe your money, in my opinion, is not government bonds but are to be found in the equities segment. However, as the large capitals are focused on bonds, they seek out the most liquid assets such as USofA or UK bonds. The idea published here serves for the time being as illustrative material and has yet to establish itself. Greetings from Hanover Stefan Bode P.S. Fuck the EU or how did the Victoria Nuland - in the conquest ehm overthrow ehm democratic election of Ukraine by the US - so beautifully 2014 expressed?
ULong
by StefanBode