TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior
highs.
The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit.
And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls.
Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well.
This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull...
1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty.
Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little.
Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s
can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper.
This will get nasty in the next 10 days.
Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can
only to let it go again.
We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K.
NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline.
With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly.
IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
Bondnote
ZN - JPY/DXY - Trouble in AsiaWith DX Strength coming from the JPY Pair...
The Red Swan continues to build from our months
long indicated Vector - China.
The CCP announced they will only bail out Domestics.
ETF Passives hold, indirectly, a far larger stake in
China's Economy then is openly acknowledged.
Never has the South China Sea - been this active
militarily.
TSML... in questions as to how that evolves.
The 6e is weak, very weak. It has yet to break the
.382s on RTs.
FX dislocations, as indicated - are here.
8 AM EST will set the tone trade for the Longer End
of the Bond Curve.
ZB has been far more reliable in providing indications
as to how Participants are positioning.
The Flight to Bond Safety is coming into question again
as Bond Holders are challenging the FED's narrative:
"There is no Inflation IF we remove it from our Models"
Genius Jerome, there are some statements during the press
conference... He should simply give up on these PR stunts.
They have become a complete and total F A R C E
ZN - 10 Yr Note - Continued Move to Higher YieldsThe Bond Markets are revolting once again.
Taper or not, doesn't matter, Inflation has taken
hold.
Either way the FED is being challenged.
Heads they lose, Tails the lose.
Expectations are what they are...
Demand Push, Supply Pull.
Demand Pull, Supply Push.
C O S T Strangles.
Jerome is done.
10Yr Note Yield - Observing it closely this week.As the 10Year Note approaches a pivotal juncture, the DX begins to
show signs of a DX Strength Trade.
The 1.41% Level should provide a challenge to the YCC analogue.
With the effects of Stimulus largely abating and the $3.5 Trillion
Stimmy for "Infrastructure" in question...
We are setup for some extreme Volatility.
10 Year Treasury Note into Jackson Hole10yr Yields peaked at ~1.70 as the Federal Reserve began YCC
(Yield Curve Control) well in advance of recognition by the
Retail Bond Market.
With a shortage of T-Bills and Janet Yellen attempting to Fund
the Fiscal Malfeasance out the Curve in order to reduce Short
Term funding.
With CASH mounting in Money Market Funds, there remains a
large pool of Cash with the potential to absorb further issuance
while driving Notes to Bonds Yields even lower.
The issue becomes the non-transitory nature of shortages,
rates of labor, price levels for those of us keeping track and
a number of perversions to the integrity of Data presented.
There is a long history of Intervention Failures, the approaching
one will be historic. Europe has by any measure, already defaulted.
This Point of recognition is quickly approaching in August.
It will spread and generate a panic.