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100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction. *** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook. The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
12
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
1st Empathy Strat Revised 12/12/24Last strategy for GBP/CAD: CAD looks like a stable market to invest in due to the momentum gaining around the currency, the oversold levels and currently low declined volatility makes it perfect for significant inclines due to unstable bearish buying power. with a economic counter to GBP's interest rate decisions week of DEC 8, and the volatility gaining around the coin, plus the bearish sustaining momentum sell GBP buy Cad. Strategy: Final Tp = 2.5% Round 1.75745 SMA = 1.3% Avg SMA = 0.60% retracment = 0.35%/0.70% 12/11/24 Note Strategy struggling pulled out of market readjusting to market situation new revised Strategy 12/12/24: since this strategy had a hard time on the decline after researching GBP market expect inclined push on fx securities due to lower prices in historical data of fx securities, plus the US PPI & natural gas fluke expect gas securities to fluke due to electric switch-over globally for sometime. CAD tech tariffs will cause dollar volatility for now expect GBP to rally
Long
by Sylynt056
3
US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
US Debt Exploding Relative To Real GDPUS debt has risen more than 90% since 2016, with no meaningful increase in economic growth inflation-adjusted (Real terms) meaning we pay more for goods and services showing a higher nominal GDP. As you can see in the chart the economy used to grow faster than debt and even outpaced debt in 70s, 80s and 90's. As I have shown before on tradingview, The annual US Gov't spending as a percentage of annual GDP is now 45% and it has been even higher. My question to you is this. next recession when Real GDP falls and politicians tell you we have to increase deficits and spending to "stimulate" the economy. How much higher will the debt go relative to real GDP?
FRED:GDPC1Long
by RealMacro
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics. This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions. 2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data: Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors. Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days. Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment. Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles. 3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets. Example: ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies. By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness. 4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces: Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes. Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments. Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions. Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers. 5. Case Studies To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships: o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures): Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior. Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite. o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures): Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers. Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty. o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries): Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53). Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty. These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context. 6. Conclusion Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies. The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Rising Inflation Expectations: TIP vs. IEFIntroduction: With the election concluded, market focus has shifted to bond markets, where recent developments hint at rising inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's campaign emphasis on price control, indicators suggest a shift toward higher inflation. A key metric to monitor is the ratio between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities AMEX:TIP and 7-10 Year Treasuries $IEF. When (TIP) outperforms NASDAQ:IEF , it signals increasing inflation expectations; conversely, when IEF outperforms, it suggests a decline in inflation expectations. Analysis: Inflation Expectations: The TIP-to-IEF ratio is a reliable gauge of the market's inflation outlook. A rising ratio indicates growing inflation concerns, as investors favor TIPs for their inflation protection over traditional Treasuries. Technical Pattern: Currently, the TIP-to-IEF ratio is breaking out of a descending triangle formation, a continuation pattern that signals the potential for higher inflation expectations. This breakout aligns with a recent surge in interest rates, reflecting heightened inflation concerns in the bond market. Market Implications: This breakout could be the early stage of a sustained trend toward higher inflation, raising questions about whether the recent interest rate surge is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term shift. Conclusion: The bond market is sending signals of rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the breakout in the TIP-to-IEF ratio. This could mark the start of a new phase in the inflation cycle, with potential implications for interest rates and broader market sentiment. Traders should closely monitor this ratio to assess the longevity of the current trend. Do you think inflation expectations are set to rise further? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the TIP-to-IEF ratio, the descending triangle formation, and breakout targets) Tags: #Inflation #Bonds #Treasuries #TIP #IEF #InterestRates #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:TIP
by Richtv_official
Time to buy $TLT for a trade to $100?I think we could see a short term rally in $TLT. On low timeframes today, it looks like we've formed a double bottom and that price is bouncing off of the lower trend line. I think we could see a rally up into the $100-102 region from here. My base case is for price to reject that region and then form one more leg lower before a sustainable bounce in bonds. Let's see how it plays out. I marked off both levels to the upside and to the downside to account for both scenarios once price has broken out of the structure.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
4
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY @2.6% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - US Inflation Rate Picks Up The annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.6% in October, from 2.4% in September and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI rise by 0.2%, consistent with the previous three months with shelter index up 0.4%, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Meanwhile, core inflation stayed at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top. The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg. The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope