The break-up (a must-watch chart)One of the most important—and unusual—developments in the market right now is the combination of rising US bond yields and a falling US dollar.
Normally, when bond yields go up, the dollar strengthens. It's similar to a high-interest bank account: if you can earn more by holding US assets, global investors tend to pile in, increasing demand for the dollar.
But that’s not what we’re seeing today.
Instead, yields are rising while the dollar weakens—something that’s more often associated with emerging markets facing debt concerns. It signals a deeper issue: despite higher returns on offer, investors are becoming wary of the underlying fundamentals.
In short, **America’s massive debt load and relentless money printing may be starting to catch up—**even with the world’s reserve currency. And the market is beginning to take notice.
This is important to all asset classes moving forward. Keep your eyes peeled on it.
Bonds
Indexes Daily "Slow" Trend anticipationExpecting a Daily slowliness a.k.a. HRLR (ICT Concepts) due to the Bonds decorrelation which is bearish. Once Bonds has reached Sell Side Liquidity Target, acceleration will be seen on Indexes higher. Meanwhile "give and take" is expected on a Daily and 4h basis.
VAGX ETF: A Hidden Gem in an Era of Economic UncertaintyIn a world of shifting economic tides, investors are constantly searching for assets that offer both stability and growth potential. The Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (VAGX) may be one such opportunity, quietly accumulating strength amid global economic fluctuations.
Understanding VAGX ETF’s Accumulation Phase
VAGX tracks the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted and Scaled (CHF Hedged) index, which includes a diversified mix of corporate and government bonds. Since its inception in September 2021, the ETF has steadily grown, accumulating assets and reinvesting interest income to enhance long-term value. With 8,891 holdings and a low expense ratio of 0.10%, it offers broad exposure to global fixed-income markets.
Macroeconomic Landscape: Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates
The global economy is at a critical juncture, with policy shifts and trade tensions shaping investment strategies. Key factors influencing VAGX’s potential include:
Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Recent tariff escalations have heightened uncertainty, impacting global trade and economic growth. This environment makes bond-based ETFs like VAGX attractive as investors seek stability.
Inflation Trends: Inflation is projected to moderate slightly in 2025, but remains a concern for central banks. Bond ETFs, particularly those with investment-grade holdings, can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been influenced by inflation and trade policies. While rate cuts may be delayed, fixed-income assets like VAGX can provide a reliable store of value in uncertain times.
Why VAGX Could Be a Strong Long-Term Holding
Diversification: Exposure to global bonds mitigates risk compared to single-market investments.
Accumulating Nature: Interest income is reinvested, compounding returns over time.
Hedged Against Currency Fluctuations: CHF hedging reduces volatility from exchange rate movements.
Low Expense Ratio: At 0.10%, it remains cost-efficient for long-term investors.
Final Thoughts
As the global economy navigates inflationary pressures, trade uncertainties, and interest rate shifts, VAGX ETF stands out as a stable, accumulating asset with strong long-term potential. Investors looking for a reliable store of value and gradual appreciation may find this ETF an attractive addition to their portfolios.
SIX:VAGX INDEX:BTCUSD SP:SPX TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $ EURONEXT:N100 SIX:SMI TVC:SXY
apan’s Bond Market Is Flashing Alarms – Carry Trade at Risk?🚨 Japan just witnessed its weakest 20-Year Government Bond auction since 1987, triggering a spike in long-dated yields:
📉 Bid-to-cover ratio at lowest since 2012
📉 Tail (spread between avg. & lowest accepted bid) was massive
📈 40Y JGB yield hit all-time highs
📈 30Y at highest since it was introduced in 1999
📈 20Y at highest level since 2000
This is a BIBLICAL move in the JGB complex.
📌 The implications?
Japan’s carry trade—a pillar of global liquidity—could be under pressure
Global bond markets may reprioritize risk
BoJ is walking a tightrope: intervene now or risk a credit crunch later?
US Downgrade, 3-5-10% Pullbacks But Still Bullish on S&PHappy Sunday!!!
US Futures open lower after Friday's close and Moody's downgrade.
Last time this occurred in 2011, the S&P dropped around 10% from the "news."
This is all interesting timing but I'm still liking pullbacks for opportunities to position
bullish in the US indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow)
Because the melt-up continues to run (US/China gap last week and drift higher), I'm trying to stay patient for a pause or pullback
Trump and Bessent are still chirping about Tariffs and a government "detox" so a round of trade war related news may help calm the market's red hot advance post April 7 lows
I'm selling calls on owned positions for income. I'm waiting for more favorable levels to add new positions, but within 3-4% of all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq I don't think anybody will be surprised to see the all-time highs revisited in the near to medium-term
Let's have a great week - thanks for watching!!!
-Chris Pulver
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUpdate: May 15, 2025
-As per my last update(April 5, 2025) about the gap between March 24th candle and March 31st candle that any candle body close above that gap will invert that gap from resistance to support and Upside target will be Jan 13, 2025 candle High
- We had a candle body close above that gap and now its acting like support.
-Now i am expecting the bullish trend to continue and long term upside target is Jan 13, 2025 candle High and Short term upside target is April 7, 2025 candle high
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA
-After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium)
-Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce
-If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone
-Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle)
If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week.
**Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
Interest Rates don't seem to want to slow downWe believed that interest rates were going higher in Early April/Late March.
The Bullish Engulfing formation was a sign that higher interest rates were coming TVC:TNX
The 10 Yr Yield Downtrend was broken, it retraced some, we posted that it was likely consolidating, & seems to want to go a little higher.
Central Banks worldwide are lowering rates while the US is raising them.
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Please see our profile for more info... We do post a lot.
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next (chart)b]📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next
Video idea here:
Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know — we’re no longer relying on broken halving cycles or outdated narratives.
We’re now in the realm of The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a framework that maps how trust moves between Bitcoin and traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries .
And today’s update? It might be the most important one yet.
🔁 Quick Recap: What Is This Model?
This model tracks Bitcoin’s relationship to long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT), cycling between:
• Correlated Periods (Blue): BTC and TLT move in the same direction
• Inverted Periods (Green): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions
And here’s the magic:
These flips often occur right at key structural levels in the bond market.
🧠 Where Are We Now?
We’re still in an Inverted Period — the 6th major one.
• TLT (Treasuries) are dropping again
• Bitcoin is rising against that backdrop
• The previous support at ~86.8 failed — we are now sliding toward the next major level
That level?
📌 71.32 – the all-time structural support for TLT going back to 2004
It’s the same zone that sparked Bitcoin’s explosive moves in the past.
📉 My Expectation:
• TLT continues sliding lower
• It finds support around 71–76
• Once that happens, we enter a Reversion Phase — where Bitcoin and TLT rise together again
• Bitcoin doesn’t just “survive” the macro shakeout — it thrives on it
This would be the 6th inversion-to-correlation flip in the model — and historically, these have marked powerful Bitcoin trends.
📊 Why This Model Matters
This isn't just about price.
It’s about trust .
It’s about rotation .
It’s about macro capital flow .
Forget halving hype — this model focuses on how institutional trust migrates between old systems (bonds) and new systems (Bitcoin).
When TLT fails, Bitcoin rises.
When TLT finds support, Bitcoin joins in.
This is not just a macro hedge.
This is the new cycle narrative .
🔍 What to Watch:
• Does TLT drop to 71?
• Do we find a bottom and reverse?
• Does BTC correlate again and break out above 115?
If so — we may be on the cusp of a new correlated bull leg .
This post builds on the foundation I laid here:
📌
📌
This is part 3.
The signal is there.
The rotation is happening.
The trust is shifting.
Are you watching?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next
Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know we’re not talking about your average halving theory anymore. We're entering a new era of Bitcoin cycle analysis — and this model may change the way we look at macro rotation forever.
This is an update to The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a cyclical framework built around one question:
When trust flows in and out of traditional assets like Treasury bonds... what does Bitcoin do?
In this post, we zoom into the latest data: • TLT is testing key support again • Bitcoin is still rising — but in an inverted period • The next major reversion event may be approaching
I'll walk you through what happens when correlation flips , why these cycles compress over time, and how we could be approaching the next Bitcoin surge — not because of supply, but because of macro trust flow .
If you’ve been wondering what’s really moving the market... this might be the chart you’ve been missing.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CREDIT CRISISWe are beginning to see evidence of a credit crisis starting. low demand for US bonds can trigger a currency crisis for the USD, higher rates will lead to refinancing company problems (especially with all the zombie companies that should have blown up over a decade ago.) and major economic depression-style job losses.
Currently, we are very early stages but things are moving at lightning speed on a macroeconomic level.
I know this is likely gibberish to most here pon trading view but it is of MASSIVE importance to your trading and investing.
CAUTION IS IN ORDER!!
Click boost, follow, and subscribe! I can help you navigate these crazy times.
[b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax[/b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax
After watching leveraged loans ( AMEX:BKLN ) and junk bonds ( AMEX:HYG ) take heavy hits, we shift to the quiet giant in the credit space: AMEX:LQD .
What is AMEX:LQD ?
It’s the ETF for investment-grade corporate bonds — meaning bonds issued by highly rated, stable companies.
We’re talking about names like Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, JPMorgan, ExxonMobil — the blue-chip elite.
These aren’t the bonds you dump in a panic — they’re the ones you rotate into when credit stress builds.
What’s happening now?
📌 Price just bounced off 103.81 , a key support zone that also held:
• During the 2020 Covid crash
• In the 2022 banking mini-crisis
• Now in 2025 – mid macro uncertainty
From 2003 to 2021, this chart trended upward with pressure on resistance. Since 2022, the pressure flipped — testing support. But structure is still being respected perfectly .
🟢 The ascending channel remains intact
🧱 Support at 103.81 is holding
🔄 No breakdown, no fear — just rotation
Zoomed-in 30m chart shows a clean technical bounce .
If we revisit 100.33, that could be a final test of the base — but unless that breaks, this still looks bullish on a macro timeline.
What it means:
This is not a market panic .
It’s a rotation into quality.
• Junk bonds = sold but found support
• Leveraged loans = stress but not panic, on support
• Investment grade = stable
• ** CRYPTOCAP:BTC 🟧 = crypto wildcard in this macro unwind**
Bottom Line:
LQD is holding up, following the rules, and quietly saying:
"Relax, we've been here before."
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge📉 How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge
After covering leveraged loans ( BKLN ), junk bonds ( HYG ), and investment-grade corporates ( LQD ), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries.
Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT .
📊 What the Chart Shows
Left Panel (3D Chart)
• All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80
• Long-term trendline going back to 2004
• Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown
Right Panel (8H Chart)
• Clear descending channel since 2020
• Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times
• Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush
🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...)
This wasn’t politics — it was policy.
• The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades
• Liquidity evaporated
• Long-duration bonds were abandoned
• The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost
That line — once support — is now resistance.
📐 My Technical Expectation
I expect one final slide before a reversal.
• Channel base sits at ~$76.32
• My projection targets $71.30 or even $68
• That would mark new all-time lows for TLT
🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal , targeting:
• 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion
• 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance
🔍 Macro Context
This chart isn’t just about price.
It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt .
And right now?
That confidence is shaky . With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc )
🔄 Recap of the Series So Far:
• BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows
• HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support
• LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady
• TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down
📌 Next up?
🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Because when the world begins to question Treasuries , the search for alternative stores of value begins.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
The Charts Wall Street Watches – And Why Crypto Should Too📉 Crisis or Rotation? Understanding Bonds Before the Bitcoin Reveal 🔍
Hi everyone 👋
Before we dive into the next major Bitcoin post (the 'Bitcoin Reveal' is coming up, yes!), let's take a moment to unpack something critical most crypto traders overlook — the world of bonds .
Why does this matter? Because the bond market often signals risk... before crypto even reacts.
We're going to walk through 4 charts I've posted recently — not the usual BTC or altcoin setups, but key pieces of the credit puzzle . So here’s a simple breakdown:
1️⃣ BKLN – Leveraged Loans = Floating Risk 🟠
These are loans to risky companies with floating interest rates.
When rates go up and liquidity is flowing, these do well.
But when the economy weakens? They’re often the first to fall.
📌 Key level: $20.31
This level held in COVID (2020), the 2022 bank scare... and now again in 2025.
⚠️ Watch for a breakdown here = real credit stress.
Right now? Concerned, but no panic.
2️⃣ HYG – Junk Bonds = Risk Appetite Tracker 🔴
Junk bonds are fixed-rate debt from companies with poor credit.
They pay high interest — if they survive.
When HYG bounces, it means investors still want risk.
📌 Fear line: 75.72
Held in 2008, 2020 (COVID), and again now.
Price rebounded — suggesting risk appetite is trying to return .
3️⃣ LQD – Investment Grade = Quality Credit 💼
LQD holds bonds from blue-chip companies like Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson.
These are lower-risk and seen as safer during stress.
📊 Chart still shows an ascending structure since 2003, with recent pressure on support.
📌 Support: 103.81
Holding well. Rebound looks solid.
Unless we break 100, this says: "No panic here."
4️⃣ TLT – U.S. Treasuries = Trust in the Government 🇺🇸
This is the BIG one.
TLT = Long-term U.S. bonds (20+ yrs) = safe haven assets .
But since 2022, that trust has been visibly broken .
A key trendline going back to 2004 was lost — and is now resistance.
📉 Price is in a clear descending channel .
📌 My expectation: One final flush to $76 or even $71–68
…before a potential macro reversal toward $112–115
🔍 The Big Picture – What Are Bonds Telling Us?
| Chart | Risk Level | Signal |
|--------|------------|--------|
| BKLN | High | Credit stress rising, but support holding |
| HYG | High | Risk appetite bouncing at a key level |
| LQD | Medium | Rotation into quality, no panic |
| TLT | Low | Trust in Treasuries fading, support being tested |
If BKLN breaks $20...
If HYG fails to hold 75.72...
If LQD dips under 100...
If TLT falls to all-time lows...
That’s your crisis signal .
Until then — the system is still rotating, not collapsing.
So, Should We Panic? 🧠
Not yet.
But we’re watching closely.
Next: We add Bitcoin to the chart.
Because if the traditional system starts breaking... 🟧 Bitcoin is the alternative.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
📌 Next Post:
BTC vs Treasuries – The Inversion Nobody Saw Coming
Because if the system is shaking… Bitcoin is Plan B.
Stay ready.
10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF📉 10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF
Yes, the recent spike in the 10-Year Yield is causing some short-term panic. But if you zoom out to the monthly timeframe, the bigger picture looks far more constructive.
🔍 Here’s what the chart says:
The MACD and RSI on the monthly are both pointing down.
Yields touched 4.5%, historically a key recession threshold.
We’re now seeing a MACD bearish crossover and a clear bearish divergence—classic signs of a trend reversal.
💡 What does this mean?
If no new fear or shock hits the market, yields are likely headed down, potentially toward the 2% range in the coming months. This would naturally ease pressure on equities and crypto.
📉 Conclusion:
This recent spike in yields seems to be transitional, not structural.
The chart suggests that the top is in, and the market is correcting from an overextended zone.
The Fed might not even need to intervene—the bond market is likely to correct on its own.
Stay calm. Stay rational. Always zoom out.
#10YearYield #BondMarket #MacroAnalysis #InterestRates #RecessionWatch #MarketPanic #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #CryptoMarkets #StockMarketInsights #StayCalmZoomOut #DYOR
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future.
As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later.
I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further.
My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90.
Targets:
2027: $100.00
2028: $105.00
2029: $110.00
2030: $115.00
Bust (unknown timing): $170+
The 10 Year: When Should We Worry?All over the media eyes are on yields but what exactly do the different potential rates of the 10-year yield mean in terms of debt servicing for the United States? I made this chart to visualize the danger points.
I am not saying I think we will get there I just wanted to know myself and help others to understand what each pain point can mean to the United States economy.
Gold ETF(GLD) - Gold is the Safe Haven?Is Gold the safe haven from all the market turmoil? Looking at the chart, it would appear that Gold is unfazed by current market conditions. Price is still making All-Time Highs as price continues to swing above the 25(green), 100,(yellow) and 200(blue) day EMAs. Further fears in the Bond market may increase interest in Gold as a stable asset. What are you thoughts? What are some other assets that are defying 'gravity'?
US10Y This break-out will be massive.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is trading within a 2-year Triangle pattern and following this week's trade events, got back on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A potential break-out either way from this long-term pattern will be massive.
We do believe though that there are higher probabilities for a bearish break-out as the 1W MA50 is about to cross below the 1W MA100 and form the first 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross since July 22 2019. Interestingly enough, that was following the last Trade War between the U.S. and China.
At the same time, the 1W RSI has been within a Channel Down since late 2022, indicating a huge Bearish Divergence.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TLT Short Term OutlookHere we have TLT moving according to our previously published chart. We think TLT will move sideways, consolidating in the near future before finding direction. Although the outlook for TLT and the Bond Market is positive, in the near short term we may see a decline in the bonds market and choppy movements. We anticipate a zigzag move followed by a possible price retest of near $85 before bouncing back up.
TLT Analysis: Bonds in Turmoil Amid Tariff ChaosThis week, we've witnessed a dramatic shift as equities and U.S. government bonds cratered simultaneously. Trump, facing intense market backlash, notably reversed his aggressive tariff stance—forced by China's strategic response and market realities. At the start of the week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.00%, skyrocketing to 4.51% in just a matter of days—a massive jump by typical investor standards. This rapid rise significantly impacts mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card borrowing, reflecting broader financial stress.
The sharp rise in bond yields resembles the forced-selling reaction to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget crisis in 2022. Trump's tariff-induced inflation fears and notably weak demand in recent U.S. Treasury auctions further intensified bond selling pressure.
Technical Levels & Analysis for TLT
Hourly Chart
TLT has clearly broken crucial support levels, highlighting significant bearish momentum:
• Resistance Zone: $90.00 - $90.50
• Current Trading Zone: Approximately $88.50
• Support Zone: $86.50 - $87.00 (critical level to watch)
Daily Chart
The daily perspective confirms bearish sentiment with substantial price drops and increasing volatility:
• Major Resistance Area: $92.50 - $93.50 (strong overhead resistance where trapped longs may reside)
• Immediate Support Area: $86.50 - $87.00
Trade Ideas & Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (primary):
• Entry Trigger: A confirmed break below the immediate support at $86.50.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $85.00 (short-term follow-through)
• Target 2: $83.50 (potential deeper continuation)
• Stop Loss: Above $88.50, limiting risk in case of unexpected bullish reversal.
Bullish Scenario (counter-trend play):
• Entry Trigger: Strong recovery and hold above $89.00.
Profit Targets:
• Target 1: $90.50 (initial resistance)
• Target 2: $92.50 (secondary resistance level)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $86.50 to tightly manage risk.
The rapid shifts in bond yields and tariffs are causing heightened market volatility. Investors must remain vigilant and maintain strict risk management. Watch these key TLT levels closely, especially amid ongoing tariff news and bond market reactions.