US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed.
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Bonds
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
US10Y BazookaOn US presidential election day, as a Donald Trump victory began to look certain, US Treasury yields experienced a startling increase in the span of a few hours. Truly extraordinary.
But is this the start of a new trend or just an acceleration of the old trend? The US10Y was so far rejected at resistance it was preordained to test. Maybe nothing has changed and we go down from here?
US10Y Most Deviated in History. Except for the Great DepressionThe percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
USD, yields surge on Fed pushback, Trump rebound After just one day of retracing on Friday, the USD bull regained momentum on Monday thanks to Fed members continuing to push back on aggressive easing. Markets are also pricing in a Trump win with some polls suggesting he is ahead in three key states and some bookies even touting for him to win. In the current climate, USD/JPY could be at 152 before we know it.
MS
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
KraneShares Asia High Yield Bond ETF Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open position in NYSE: KHYB
KHYB is an asia focused high yield corporate bond fund. The current yield is 15.3% per annum.
Why asia high yield?
1. Higher risk premium for high yield corporate bonds
The asia corporate bond sector has higher yield given similar rated bonds in western markets. In particular the spread for high yield asian corporate bonds is 800 basis points above the risk free rate.
2. Lower default rates and higher coverage ratios
Asia high yield bonds have lower default rates and higher coverage ratios to their US and EU counterparts. This fact alongside the higher risk premium points to a greater reward/risk ratio in the bond market compared to other regions and grade of bonds.
3. Capital appreciation potential
With the defaults of the Chinese real estate developers the asia high yield space took a hit in price and default rates. If you are confident that default rates will return to the historic norm or lower the share price of KHYB could return to the previous highs in the $40/share range.
Why KHYB?
1. Excludes Japanese bonds
Japan is an exception in the asia bond space in that the country has negative real yields. Not to say they should be avoided, but if you are looking for positive yields and not to speculate on rates removing Japan is a prudent choice.
2. Shorter bond duration
KHYB has an average bond duration of 2 years. This is below the asia high yield average of 2.7 year duration. This lowers the price fluctuations as opposed to longer dated bond funds.
3. Below average default rates
Despite the defaults in broader asia credit market throughout 2022, the KraneShares fund did not experience a single default in their portfolio. Of course their portfolio declined in value alongside the market, but this statistic goes to show the responsibility and competence of the managers.
Here is the link to a presentation by KraneShares where I sourced most of this data: engage.kraneshares.com
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Armageddon after the election, huh?Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up.
The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar.
Such synchronicity has historically led to powerful corrections, and something tells me that it will not be the Dollar.
Now, I ain't saying we should all go out and start selling stocks like never before. But what I am sayin' is that maybe, just maybe, we should take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Maybe the market's got some more room to run, and maybe we should be lookin' for opportunities to get in on the action.
So, yeah, the option sentiment's looking a little bearish, but that don't mean we should all be running for the hills just yet.
Let's keep our cool, do our research, and see what the market's got in store for us.
Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition.
Recent events:
2Yr Yield rallied substantially.
10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart.
We're close to inversion again!
Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM.
Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder.
Further analysis:
We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI.
Volume has been lessening as the days go by.
TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
US10Y Look for a 1D MA50 rejection.A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates:
Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the 1D.
As you can see the pattern is a double Channel Down, with the price trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 03 2024. That is the current Resistance and until it breaks (1D candle closing above it), we should be looking every time for a sell near it.
Assuming the Bearish Legs of the diverging (dotted) Channel Down are symmetrical like those of May and June, our Target is 3.450%, representing a -10.50% decline (same as August's Bearish Leg).
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