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The Charts Wall Street Watches – And Why Crypto Should Too📉 Crisis or Rotation? Understanding Bonds Before the Bitcoin Reveal 🔍 Hi everyone 👋 Before we dive into the next major Bitcoin post (the 'Bitcoin Reveal' is coming up, yes!), let's take a moment to unpack something critical most crypto traders overlook — the world of bonds . Why does this matter? Because the bond market often signals risk... before crypto even reacts. We're going to walk through 4 charts I've posted recently — not the usual BTC or altcoin setups, but key pieces of the credit puzzle . So here’s a simple breakdown: 1️⃣ BKLN – Leveraged Loans = Floating Risk 🟠 These are loans to risky companies with floating interest rates. When rates go up and liquidity is flowing, these do well. But when the economy weakens? They’re often the first to fall. 📌 Key level: $20.31 This level held in COVID (2020), the 2022 bank scare... and now again in 2025. ⚠️ Watch for a breakdown here = real credit stress. Right now? Concerned, but no panic. 2️⃣ HYG – Junk Bonds = Risk Appetite Tracker 🔴 Junk bonds are fixed-rate debt from companies with poor credit. They pay high interest — if they survive. When HYG bounces, it means investors still want risk. 📌 Fear line: 75.72 Held in 2008, 2020 (COVID), and again now. Price rebounded — suggesting risk appetite is trying to return . 3️⃣ LQD – Investment Grade = Quality Credit 💼 LQD holds bonds from blue-chip companies like Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson. These are lower-risk and seen as safer during stress. 📊 Chart still shows an ascending structure since 2003, with recent pressure on support. 📌 Support: 103.81 Holding well. Rebound looks solid. Unless we break 100, this says: "No panic here." 4️⃣ TLT – U.S. Treasuries = Trust in the Government 🇺🇸 This is the BIG one. TLT = Long-term U.S. bonds (20+ yrs) = safe haven assets . But since 2022, that trust has been visibly broken . A key trendline going back to 2004 was lost — and is now resistance. 📉 Price is in a clear descending channel . 📌 My expectation: One final flush to $76 or even $71–68 …before a potential macro reversal toward $112–115 🔍 The Big Picture – What Are Bonds Telling Us? | Chart | Risk Level | Signal | |--------|------------|--------| | BKLN | High | Credit stress rising, but support holding | | HYG | High | Risk appetite bouncing at a key level | | LQD | Medium | Rotation into quality, no panic | | TLT | Low | Trust in Treasuries fading, support being tested | If BKLN breaks $20... If HYG fails to hold 75.72... If LQD dips under 100... If TLT falls to all-time lows... That’s your crisis signal . Until then — the system is still rotating, not collapsing. So, Should We Panic? 🧠 Not yet. But we’re watching closely. Next: We add Bitcoin to the chart. Because if the traditional system starts breaking... 🟧 Bitcoin is the alternative. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 📌 Next Post: BTC vs Treasuries – The Inversion Nobody Saw Coming Because if the system is shaking… Bitcoin is Plan B. Stay ready.
AMEX:BKLNEducation
by FX_Professor
2
How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge📉 How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge After covering leveraged loans ( BKLN ), junk bonds ( HYG ), and investment-grade corporates ( LQD ), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries. Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT . 📊 What the Chart Shows Left Panel (3D Chart) • All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80 • Long-term trendline going back to 2004 • Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown Right Panel (8H Chart) • Clear descending channel since 2020 • Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times • Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush 🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...) This wasn’t politics — it was policy. • The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades • Liquidity evaporated • Long-duration bonds were abandoned • The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost That line — once support — is now resistance. 📐 My Technical Expectation I expect one final slide before a reversal. • Channel base sits at ~$76.32 • My projection targets $71.30 or even $68 • That would mark new all-time lows for TLT 🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal , targeting: • 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion • 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance 🔍 Macro Context This chart isn’t just about price. It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt . And right now? That confidence is shaky . With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc ) 🔄 Recap of the Series So Far: • BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows • HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support • LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady • TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down 📌 Next up? 🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Because when the world begins to question Treasuries , the search for alternative stores of value begins. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
4
[b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax[/b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax After watching leveraged loans ( AMEX:BKLN ) and junk bonds ( AMEX:HYG ) take heavy hits, we shift to the quiet giant in the credit space: AMEX:LQD . What is AMEX:LQD ? It’s the ETF for investment-grade corporate bonds — meaning bonds issued by highly rated, stable companies. We’re talking about names like Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, JPMorgan, ExxonMobil — the blue-chip elite. These aren’t the bonds you dump in a panic — they’re the ones you rotate into when credit stress builds. What’s happening now? 📌 Price just bounced off 103.81 , a key support zone that also held: • During the 2020 Covid crash • In the 2022 banking mini-crisis • Now in 2025 – mid macro uncertainty From 2003 to 2021, this chart trended upward with pressure on resistance. Since 2022, the pressure flipped — testing support. But structure is still being respected perfectly . 🟢 The ascending channel remains intact 🧱 Support at 103.81 is holding 🔄 No breakdown, no fear — just rotation Zoomed-in 30m chart shows a clean technical bounce . If we revisit 100.33, that could be a final test of the base — but unless that breaks, this still looks bullish on a macro timeline. What it means: This is not a market panic . It’s a rotation into quality. • Junk bonds = sold but found support • Leveraged loans = stress but not panic, on support • Investment grade = stable • ** CRYPTOCAP:BTC 🟧 = crypto wildcard in this macro unwind** Bottom Line: LQD is holding up, following the rules, and quietly saying: "Relax, we've been here before." One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
AMEX:LQD
by FX_Professor
10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF📉 10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF Yes, the recent spike in the 10-Year Yield is causing some short-term panic. But if you zoom out to the monthly timeframe, the bigger picture looks far more constructive. 🔍 Here’s what the chart says: The MACD and RSI on the monthly are both pointing down. Yields touched 4.5%, historically a key recession threshold. We’re now seeing a MACD bearish crossover and a clear bearish divergence—classic signs of a trend reversal. 💡 What does this mean? If no new fear or shock hits the market, yields are likely headed down, potentially toward the 2% range in the coming months. This would naturally ease pressure on equities and crypto. 📉 Conclusion: This recent spike in yields seems to be transitional, not structural. The chart suggests that the top is in, and the market is correcting from an overextended zone. The Fed might not even need to intervene—the bond market is likely to correct on its own. Stay calm. Stay rational. Always zoom out. #10YearYield #BondMarket #MacroAnalysis #InterestRates #RecessionWatch #MarketPanic #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #CryptoMarkets #StockMarketInsights #StayCalmZoomOut #DYOR
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptoNikkoid
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future. As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later. I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further. My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90. Targets: 2027: $100.00 2028: $105.00 2029: $110.00 2030: $115.00 Bust (unknown timing): $170+
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
US10Y This break-out will be massive.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is trading within a 2-year Triangle pattern and following this week's trade events, got back on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A potential break-out either way from this long-term pattern will be massive. We do believe though that there are higher probabilities for a bearish break-out as the 1W MA50 is about to cross below the 1W MA100 and form the first 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross since July 22 2019. Interestingly enough, that was following the last Trade War between the U.S. and China. At the same time, the 1W RSI has been within a Channel Down since late 2022, indicating a huge Bearish Divergence. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
4
TLT Analysis: Bonds in Turmoil Amid Tariff ChaosThis week, we've witnessed a dramatic shift as equities and U.S. government bonds cratered simultaneously. Trump, facing intense market backlash, notably reversed his aggressive tariff stance—forced by China's strategic response and market realities. At the start of the week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.00%, skyrocketing to 4.51% in just a matter of days—a massive jump by typical investor standards. This rapid rise significantly impacts mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card borrowing, reflecting broader financial stress. The sharp rise in bond yields resembles the forced-selling reaction to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget crisis in 2022. Trump's tariff-induced inflation fears and notably weak demand in recent U.S. Treasury auctions further intensified bond selling pressure. Technical Levels & Analysis for TLT Hourly Chart TLT has clearly broken crucial support levels, highlighting significant bearish momentum: • Resistance Zone: $90.00 - $90.50 • Current Trading Zone: Approximately $88.50 • Support Zone: $86.50 - $87.00 (critical level to watch) Daily Chart The daily perspective confirms bearish sentiment with substantial price drops and increasing volatility: • Major Resistance Area: $92.50 - $93.50 (strong overhead resistance where trapped longs may reside) • Immediate Support Area: $86.50 - $87.00 Trade Ideas & Scenarios Bearish Scenario (primary): • Entry Trigger: A confirmed break below the immediate support at $86.50. Profit Targets: • Target 1: $85.00 (short-term follow-through) • Target 2: $83.50 (potential deeper continuation) • Stop Loss: Above $88.50, limiting risk in case of unexpected bullish reversal. Bullish Scenario (counter-trend play): • Entry Trigger: Strong recovery and hold above $89.00. Profit Targets: • Target 1: $90.50 (initial resistance) • Target 2: $92.50 (secondary resistance level) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $86.50 to tightly manage risk. The rapid shifts in bond yields and tariffs are causing heightened market volatility. Investors must remain vigilant and maintain strict risk management. Watch these key TLT levels closely, especially amid ongoing tariff news and bond market reactions.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HispanicHedge
CREDIT CRISISWe are beginning to see evidence of a credit crisis starting. low demand for US bonds can trigger a currency crisis for the USD, higher rates will lead to refinancing company problems (especially with all the zombie companies that should have blown up over a decade ago.) and major economic depression-style job losses. Currently, we are very early stages but things are moving at lightning speed on a macroeconomic level. I know this is likely gibberish to most here pon trading view but it is of MASSIVE importance to your trading and investing. CAUTION IS IN ORDER!! Click boost, follow, and subscribe! I can help you navigate these crazy times.
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by RealMacro
7
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88
US10Y: This pattern has been extremely bullish for stocks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield is heavily bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 36.788, MACD = -0.034, ADX = 32.176) and that has historically been favorable for stocks. More specifically, when the Yields have been trending down inside a Channel Up since 2010, the S&P500 was on an uptrend. Going into more detail on the US10Y RSI on the 1W timeframe, it is almost on the 34.20 trendline, which is a key level as every time it hit that (see the dashed vertical lines), the S&P500 bottomed. The exception to the rule was, needless to say the COVID crash in Feb 2020. According to this, Trump's tariffs create the perfect market opportunity for a new long term buy. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
1
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
4
US 10yr Treasury Yields Press Against ResistanceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just beneath the 4.34% resistance level, with price forming a tight ascending triangle just under this key level. Today’s pullback to 4.31% (-0.74%) suggests hesitation from bulls as momentum indicators turn mixed. 🔹 MACD is flat, showing a lack of directional conviction. 🔹 RSI sits at 47.94, neutral and non-committal. 🔹 Price remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (4.43%) and the 200-day SMA (4.22%). A confirmed breakout above 4.34% could open the door for a run toward 4.50% or even 4.80%. Conversely, a drop below the rising trendline (~4.24%) would expose downside risk toward the 200-day SMA. Watch for a catalyst (Fed commentary or inflation data) to break the deadlock. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXcom
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic economy. The last 2-3 weeks have seen risk assets come under pressure, but the below chart suggests that the risk-off sentiment shift may still be early-stage... Whether viewed through a traditional technical lens or supply/demand, current levels could be considered supportive - risk is to the upside. A few impacted ETFs: NASDAQ:IEF , NASDAQ:TLT , AMEX:HYG , AMEX:JNK Jon JHartCharts
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2Long
by JHartCharts
Are bonds (TLT) about to fall?I've been thinking for the past few months that TLT would rally up to the 100 area. However, that move hasn't materialized and now I think there's a chance of yields rising and bonds falling. Over the past few weeks the chart has morphed more bearish. It looks like something should set off the bond market this week and cause a lot of volatility in bonds. I think there's potentially a chance we see the lower supports get hit before we see a relief rally. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by benjihyam
1
US10Y Strong sell signal below the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 23 2023 High. In the past 2 months it has been on a downtrend, which is the technical Bearish Leg of the pattern. The 1D MACD is on its 2nd Bullish Cross on a decline, very similar with the previous Bearish Leg of the Channel Down. We are again on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and as long as any rebound gets rejected below or on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term bearish pattern remains intact. We expect a similar Bearish Leg of -24% overall to target 3.685%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
6
How to pick a benchmark for you portfolio and beat the market What is a benchmark? A benchmark is an index or a basket of assets used to evaluate the performance of an investment portfolio In the context of portfolio analysis the benchmark serves as a point of comparison to determine whether a fund a strategy or an investment is performing better worse or in line with the reference market. In the current chart, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is displayed with a solid and larger blue line in relation to other cryptocurrencies for the current period. Benchmarks are essential tools for institutional and private investors as they allow measuring the effectiveness of asset allocation choices and risk management Additionally they help determine the added value of an active manager compared to a passive market replication strategy. Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:NDX Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:AAPL - NASDAQ:NDX What is the purpose of a benchmark The use of a benchmark in portfolio analysis has several objectives 1) Performance Evaluation: Provides a parameter to compare the portfolio's return against the market or other funds 2) Risk Analysis: Allows comparing the volatility of the portfolio against that of the benchmark offering a measure of risk management 3) Performance Attribution: Helps distinguish between returns derived from asset selection and those linked to market factors 4) Expectation Management: Supports investors and managers in assessing whether a portfolio is meeting expected return objectives 5) Strategy Control: If a portfolio deviates excessively from the benchmark it may signal the need to review the investment strategy How to select an appropriate benchmark? The choice of the correct benchmark depends on several factors: 1) Consistency with Portfolio Objective: The benchmark should reflect the market or sector in which the portfolio operates 2) Representativeness of Portfolio Assets: The benchmark should have a composition similar to that of the portfolio to ensure a fair comparison 3) Transparency and Data Availability: It must be easily accessible and calculated with clear and public methodologies 4) Stability Over Time: A good benchmark should not be subject to frequent modifications to ensure reliable historical comparison 5) Compatible Risk and Return: The benchmark should have a risk and return profile similar to that of the portfolio Most used benchmarks There are different benchmarks based on asset type and reference market Here are some of the most common. Equity FRED:SP500 Representative index of the 500 largest US companies. NYSE:MSCI World Includes companies from various developed countries ideal for global strategies FTSE:FTSEMIB Benchmark for the Italian stock market NASDAQ:NDX Represents the largest technology and growth companies Bonds Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index Broad benchmark for the global bond market JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index EMBI Benchmark for emerging market debt [* ]BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index Representative of the high-yield bond market junk bonds Mixed or Balanced 6040 Portfolio Benchmark 60 equities SP 500 and 40 bonds Bloomberg US Aggregate used to evaluate balanced portfolios Morningstar Moderate Allocation Index Suitable for moderate-risk investment strategies Alternative HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index Benchmark for hedge funds Goldman Sachs Commodity Index GSCI Used for commodity-related strategies Bitcoin Index CoinDesk BPI Benchmark for cryptocurrencies A reference benchmark is essential in portfolio analysis to measure performance manage risk and evaluate investment strategies The selection of an appropriate benchmark must be consistent with the strategy and market of the portfolio to ensure meaningful comparison. Understanding and correctly selecting the benchmark allows investors to optimize their decisions and improve long-term results.
Education
by thequantscience
6