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$TNX is weakening, no longer holder better vs short term Yields$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO will happen MUCH FASTER. Perhaps 6 months tops, no pun intended. :) #stocks #cryptotrading #rates #interestrates
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US10Y is on the 1W MA50. Major effect on stocks and commodities!It is only 11 days ago when we called for an immediate drop on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it was at the top of both its long-term Channel Down as well as the top of the Diverging Channel Up: The Channel Up now broke to the downside as the US10Y not only hit our 3.550% Target but closed even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the Channel Down remaining the only pattern still valid. The important development is that the price is testing the 1W MA50 for the second straight day and for the first time since December 21 2021. If it closes the week below it, it not only validates the 5 month Channel Up but also confirms the way for a new long-term downtrend extension towards the 1W MA100. Needless to say, this will have major consequences on the stock and metals (Gold in particular) markets as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1
Backfiring BondsTwo financial institutions, Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), collapsed early last week due to a series of ill-fated investment decisions which were exposed by global interest rate tightening. The collapses came after the institutions invested large amounts of capital in long-dated US government bonds, which were considered relatively low risk. However, as interest rates rose rapidly to combat spiralling inflation, bond portfolios started to lose significant value. As a result, when cash demands got high enough, Silvergate and SVB had to sell those backing assets at substantial losses. Silvergate announced a $1 billion loss on the sale of assets in the fourth quarter of last year, while SVB lost $1.8 billion. In both cases, US Treasury bonds comprised large portions of the liquidations. SVB, once the 16th largest bank in the US, then announced a $1.75bn capital raising to plug the hole caused by the sale of its bond portfolio. As one would anticipate, this news resulted in a run on the bank's reserves, and two days later, the bank collapsed, marking the largest bank failure in the US since the global financial crisis. The US government has since guaranteed all deposits of the bank's customers, which has attempted to address concerns of widespread contagion and further runs on other banks' reserves. After the collapse of these institutions, the Federal Reserve announced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which will provide banks and other depository institutions with emergency loans. However, JPMorgan has since stated this program could inject as much as $2 trillion into the American banking system, which would nullify all hope of inflationary pressures easing. All of the talk in recent years has been about protecting the banking system from crypto. However, ironically, we had a situation where a digital asset had to be protected from the banking system. The SVB debacle caused USDC to temporarily lose its peg after it was revealed that its issuer, Circle, had $3.3bn wrapped up in a SVB bank account. The stablecoin fell to as low as $0.88 over the weekend before recovering after the US government's deposit guarantee was announced. These events have highlighted an underappreciated problem with increasing interest rates to reign in inflation. The issuance of new Treasury bonds with higher yields causes the market value of existing bonds with lower yields to decrease. As a result, all banks that hold a significant amount of Treasurys as legally required collateral are vulnerable to the same risk that has affected banks like Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. Recently, it looked as if the contagion effects had spread to Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse when their stock began to plummet after questions were raised about the banks' stability. However, since then, the bank has secured a £44.5bn lifeline from the Swiss central bank. The importance of this should not be underestimated. Credit Suisse manages assets in the region of $1.6 trillion. If the bank collapses, it could trigger a domino effect, bringing about a 2008-like crisis. All in all, it would be ironic if increasing interest rates failed to lower inflation but instead resulted in a number of banks collapsing as a result of their bad bets on treasuries. Despite this market turmoil, yesterday, the European Central Bank stuck to its plan and went with a 50bps rate hike meaning that Credit Suisse may not be out of the woods yet. In recent weeks, the market had been pricing in a 50bps rate hike from the Fed. However, the collapse of SVB and broader risks to the financial system may lead the Fed to raise interest rates by no more than a quarter percentage point next week, with some institutions such as Barclays expecting the Fed to pause all rate increases. Despite these events, in recent days Bitcoin has significantly outperformed markets. Since the 11th of March, Bitcoin is up over 20% whilst other asset classes are up between 0-2% with 10Y US Yields down around 4%. The key reasons for this most likely come down to the dampening of US CPI data along with the decreased likelihood of future rate hikes as a consequence of the events of the past week. Ironically, while inflation and bank crisis now look more likely, the expectation of more liquidity has provided risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin, bullish momentum.
by Coinrule
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me. I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past. We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner. I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY. One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT. I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future. Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
NASDAQ:TLT
by Lynxys
2
Dollar & VIX ripping, Yields cratering, Stocks fallingGood Morning! We've been mostly cash when it comes to #stocks. Been defensive as we have #GOLD #SILVER #BCH #BTC (#crypto #altcoins in personal) some $VIX & some bigger VALUE names, added some more today $AMGN $VZ as examples. We've reduced the exposure as the direction seems south but anything can happen. FEAR is the word. #Dollar ripping again & bond buying. $DXY looks good & bounced off of support. Look @ yields CRATERING again. 1Yr & 2Yr #yields COLLAPSING! 10Yr HOLDING MAJOR SUPPORT & back at level it was 2 days ago. We noticed something some time ago & will post soon. $VIX is trading in a new range now & closing in on the TOP part of range. 2 things can happen here. Either we rip through, likely causing a COLLAPSE in #stockmarket OR IT pulls back to the 23ish range and keep in this new range & fear eventually subsides.
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US02Y is on a breaking point. Great news for stocks!The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test! Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that was at the bottom of the U.S. - China trade war and sent stocks (black trend-line = S&P500) on a 1 year mega-rally (until the COVID crash). Will we have a repeat? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US02Y
by TradingShot
5
$TNX Bouncing nicely as are shorter maturity YieldsWas kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close to support levels. So the bounce we are getting today is not unexpected. Furthermore, the gap from two days ago attracted and it is filled today. $TNX was also oversold. Yields from here are tough to gauge but likely go a bit higher.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon and good evening traders! I'm sharing with you a recap of my trade for today, actually we caught the 1st up trend after breaking the support line with a quite high volume, then after having the highest volume of the day on the candle I put the 2nd arrow at we added another position to finish the trade on the market with 2 contracts and a respectful profit after seeing a squeeze of buyers and closed at the end of the red candle I put an arrow on. After that the price broke the support line of the channel I shared the trade with you too early to make some profit of it. For more questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure. PS: The autocorrect changed the FUTURE to FEATURE on the post I posted this morning
CBOT:ZB1!
by YassineAnalysis
Biggest Drop since 2008 - Right After our Post 🙄Good that I always TRUST my Charts: US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has dropped 'nicely' since my last post, which was 'against the stream' since when i posted it Powell was being extra-Hawkish and situation was different. News: The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell sharply on Friday as the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank sparked a flight to safer assets such as government bonds. The yield shed at least 46 basis points over a two-day period, a sudden decline not seen since September 2008 , when the markets were in the throes of the global financial crisis. Perhaps by no coincidence, the flight to bond safety this week was caused by the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis. These were supposed to be 'Good news', rates could ease and markets (and crypto) could do better but unfortunately it all happened for the wrong reasons: Some Banks going bust. Better check my other posts today. Everything changes FAST so watch out for the CPI tomorrow: If inflation is better the Feds are saved...if inflation persists we could ALL be in DEEP trouble. One Love, The always optimistic Professor
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
So... Recession Confirmed? With oil breaking bullish support, it's safe to say that demand has been cratering around the world. As Jeff Snider has discussed for months now, if the supply constraints on oil aren't driving oil higher, then there must be a serious demand problem. Overheated economy? I think not. Add to that Gold up and Yields down and that means low growth + low inflation. Also not good. So what's the trade? Well, I think we might be at the start of what Alex Gurevich has called the mother of all bull markets in bonds. Some of these options on bonds could pay out 10x to 20x (i.e., eurodollar futures, SHY, TLT, etc). Interesting times to live in.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by sacredprofit
Yields are CRATERING - WHy?The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off 5.33% This is causing more of an inversion to the yield curve. On other news, banks faltering isn't helping the case for stability or easing the fears of #economy being in turmoil.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Japanese have been selling bonds, have Yields peaked for now?One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING! Interesting. Also interesting is that volume has been waning for investment grade and high yield bonds. Liquidity could be an issue later on if this continues.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The market is at critical supportI multiplied SPY, DOW, Nasdaq and TLT together to get a broad picture of the state of the US market and have noticed this channel here. We are now at a critical bounce area established by the covid bottom and 08 bottom. If it doesn't hold this, then to me it would be safe to assume that this decade long trend is over and it will be reshaped into a new trend after lots of pain just like in 08. I'm obviously hoping for the yellow line to play out, but it will requite lots of competence from the leaders of the banks and the world to get it in that direction, competence that seems to no longer exist. If you look at raw material charts like steel, wood or even gold and silver, one would assume the deflation goal has been reached. However, the FED's real goal has never been to fight inflation , but to fight low unemployment, because businesses would rather do share buybacks than invest in their employees. thehill.com And we haven't seen news of mass layoffs yet, or government bailouts of failing companies, so Powell's thirst for homelessness hasn't yet been quenched. You can also see that CPIAUCSL has flat-lined since May and the last time it did this after a big ramp up was just before the huge waterfall in 08. I'm not sure how much stake to put in that correlation though, since it has only happened once on the chart. It still is something to be concerned about though. UK has reached their pressure limit yesterday, so there's some bullish news. As the UK starts QE, it should put pressure on Powell to give up his tough guy act after messing up so badly in 2020-21 with the endless money printing. If this support fails, I think something like this chart I made earlier will be the more accurate one: This chart uses similar calculations, but instead divides by US10Y instead of multiplying by TLT, this gave me more data to work with, but also changed the chart a little bit to show more bearish possibilities. But I think this is generally a really safe spot to start going long for a bounce and then just keep a stop below the thick support line. Interestingly, the darker blue line and thick blue line are acting as support at the exact same spot. I always find coincidences like that in charts interesting and to me usually means there's even more support there than just one line. We can't get 100% bullish until that orange megaphone resistance is broken though, so keep that in mind. Thanks for reading and good luck out there.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Lynxys
18
A focus on the importance of support and resistance levelsSupport and resistance levels are the lost art of trading any market. In using support and resistance zones, I also use various MA's (Moving Averages) to assist me in finding the perfect entry. Now no trading strategy is completely waterproof. The market will act and react however it wants to, and a multitude of factors can drastically alter price action so take this advice at your own risk. I'm looking to provide a series of videos to assist me in providing this information in a more clear and more concise manner. Support is a zone at the bottom of a trend or series of trends that acts as a trampoline, or (support) to the upside. Resistance acts as a ceiling, or (resistance) that favors movements to the downside. Draw these zones using either a rectangle on higher timeframes or two horizontal lines. There's not a single price that can act as either support or resistance. To create a larger margin of error, we use these zones. These zones usually make up anywhere from 20-30 pips, depending on the symbol in question. Use the MA's to show you where the trend is heading. Bring in other factors such as market sentiment, geopolitics, economic statistics, news breaks, and anything else that can act as confluence in determining where the market may go next. I use anywhere from 3 to 5 levels of confluence before I even think about entering the market. NEVER impulse trade. I also suggest never trading pre-news. When a red folder news event occurs, the market can shake, or "whipsaw" causing price action to rubberband in either direction. These moves are aimed to close retail traders' accounts, and the market wants nothing more than to take your money. More to come in a future idea - stay tuned. Happy trading, and as always, use responsible risk management when trading any financial market. Swindle
Education
by Swindle
1
Show me a chart that matters more than this?The chart I've created here shows yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Bond. The white line shows its percentage change over the last 12 months. The red line shows the S&P 500. It shows the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. What more needs to be said? The S&P 500 is red over the last year while the yield on bonds continues to rise. REMEMBER: with every increase in bond yield, the risk for things like stocks becomes more difficult. A bond will pay you close to 5%. Apple, on the other hand, will pay a 2% dividend. If Apple does not grow at all, or increase buybacks or new products, or if a recession hits, then the bond yield is indeed the better trade. The further these two assets widen, the more difficult the trade off becomes. HOWEVER, that's not to say that stocks and bond yields cannot go up at the same time. Actually, in prior bull markets, they have risen together. If innovation continues, if economic growth continues, and if inflation starts to get under control, we very likely could see this gap shrink in an instant. I am watching insider transactions to see how much faith top directors, teammates, and employees have in their respective company. Several CEOs have recently bought large chunks of shares out of their own bank accounts. What do this say? Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPY
by scheplick
2
🔥 Bond Yield Curve Inversion Reaching -1%: Why It's ImportantAn inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates, it can indicate that investors believe the economy will weaken in the future. This is because investors are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds if they believe that interest rates will fall in the future as a result of weak economic growth. Essentially, they are willing to lock in a lower yield now, in the hopes that it will be higher in the future. An inverted yield curve can lead to a number of problems. For example, it can make it more difficult for banks to make money. This is because banks borrow at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates. When the yield curve is inverted, the interest rates that banks earn on loans are lower than the interest rates they pay on deposits. This can squeeze bank profits and make them less willing to lend. And we all know, less money in the market means less potential (risky) investments. An inverted yield curve can also be a sign of a potential recession. Historically, an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since WW2. This is because an inverted yield curve can indicate that investors are pessimistic about the future of the economy. They may be selling off stocks and other assets, which can lead to a downturn in the stock market and a decline in consumer confidence. In conclusion, an extremely inverted yield curve like now is a situation in which short-term interest rates on government bonds are higher than long-term interest rates. This can indicate potential economic problems, including a recession and difficulties for banks. While an inverted yield curve is not a guarantee of a recession, the probability of the current yield inversion suggesting a coming recession is very high. It's going to be an interesting year.
TVC:US10YShort
by FieryTrading
9
TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
NASDAQ:TLT
by LordWrymouth