USDJPY buying opportunity | 23 December 2022On the H8 timeframe, USDJPY came to test the 134.500 support level twice before a surprise move by the Bank of Japan sent prices sharply down. On 20 December, the BOJ announced that it would loosen its 10 year bond yield cap from 0.25% to 0.5%. This caught investors completely off guard, and the yield rate subsequently jumped to 0.499%, its highest level since 2015, leading USDJPY to break through the 134.500 support level on the back of a strengthening Yen. USDJPY has settled at the 131.800 support level which coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement after a significant round of price correction, as investors recalibrate their outlook on Japanese fixed income securities. Price was recently buoyed by upbeat US economic data, where the release of inflation data on 23 Dec could finally trigger a retracement to the previous 134.500 support turned resistance level which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension. We expect price to approach the 131.800 support level as our Entry point, which will temporarily retrace to 134.500 where we will Take Profit and exit the trade before USDJPY extends its overall bearish trend in the longer term. We have placed our stop loss at the historical support level of 130.500, which could be approached if the PCE Price Index comes in higher than market expectations. Stochastic RSI has just re-emerged from the oversold region, while prices dipped below the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, supporting our bullish bias.
The Yen reacted strongly to the initial jump in JGB yields. Higher JGB yields have boosted expectations of greater investment levels in the Japanese bond market as its differential with other securities on the global bond market narrows, which would strengthen the Yen against the Dollar. This is especially the case because low interest rates and bond yields had previously driven out a significant volume of capital to the extent that Japan became the largest holder of US government bonds, owning almost USD $1.3 Trillion of debt. With a narrower yield differential, there is hope that some capital might return home. However, the BOJ’s subsequent statements that it would continue to step up bond buying saw a sharp reversal in yield rates from a peak of 0.499% to its current rate of 0.382%, which could see further declines in the form of a price correction from the market’s initial knee-jerk reaction. This could dampen some of the Yen’s strengthening, which could give a further boost to USDJPY in the short term.
Bonds
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low.
In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected.
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EURAUD - Long EOD set upThe technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America.
© Oliver Levingston
Merrill Lynch (Australia)
oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com
• The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower terminal rate in 2023
• The AU curve still looks too steep and we see inflation risks as increasingly skewed to the upside.
Slowing down, not a slowdown
We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate by another 25bp to 3.1% at its 6 December meeting. Markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike (24% chance of a pause) as at the time of writing. The message will echo its determination to keep the economy on ‘an even keel’, balancing the challenge of suppressing rising inflation with the risk that rate hikes could tip the economy into recession.
The RBA has moved cautiously on rate hikes: not only was it slow to lift off, waiting until May 2022 to do so; it also surprised markets by downshifting to a 25bp hike in October, becoming the first major DM central bank to slowdown the pace of rate increases. It then stuck to its gradual hiking pace at its November meeting, despite a strong 3Q CPI print (see RBA review: Sticking to 25, 1 November 2022). The RBA has cited the high frequency of its meetings – the RBA meets 11 times, the FOMC and ECB each have 8 meetings scheduled per year – as a reason why it can afford to take a gradual approach.
Market pricing reflects increasingly dovish sentiment – markets are now pricing rates to rise to just 3.5% in mid-2023, down about 30bps in a month. Optimism on rates grew after the RBA’s monthly CPI for October, released on 30 November, showed both the headline inflation slowing to 6.9%YoY (vs. 7.3% in Sep) and the trimmed mean measure easing to 5.3%YoY (5.4% in Sep). However, we caution that for October, the new monthly series contains only 62% of the price data used in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) quarterly CPI – it omits, for example, new information on many administered prices such as utilities, which are not priced until the final month of the quarter.
For these reasons, the RBA has stated that “the quarterly CPI is likely to remain the principal measure of CPI inflation in Australia for the foreseeable future,”1 making it premature to call for a peaking in inflation based on the October monthly CPI print. Nor does it change the fact that inflation is likely to remain well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%.
Yet the RBA will likely remain less hawkish than its counterparts overseas. Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has only recently started to pick up above 3%. The RBA does not yet see signs of a wage-price spiral, though it has stressed the need to remain vigilant. It noted in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) that “reports of higher labour costs contributing to price increases have so far been largely contained to price increases have so far been largely contained to a few specific sectors.” A softer retail trade print (-0/2% MoM) and Governor Lowe’s apology before the Senate for the RBA’s (abandoned) promise to hold interest rates steady out to 2024 have added to growing expectations of a lower terminal RBA rate.
For these reasons, the risk of a recession in AU in 2023 remains a low probability and the risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, in our view. The RBA’s restrained approach, sustained strength in the labour market and a continued boost from a record term of trade make an economic contraction less likely than peers. We do not have cuts in our profile.
Waiting for the wave
The main risk reflected in market pricing and the RBA’s published commentary is that households have not yet sustained the full impact of rate hikes. We have pencilled in hikes until May 2023 just before the mortgage rate reset wave accelerates in mid-2023. The maturity profile of fixed-rate mortgages taken out when lending rates were as low as 2% suggests the “cliff” may have traction. The line of questioning at Governor Lowe’s attendance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee and public speeches from the RBA confirm that fixed-rate mortgage resets are at the front of their minds when they consider risks to the economy.
Yet Australia continues to enjoy meaningful protection from downside risks, in our view. A positive terms-of-trade shock that has reduced Australian Government funding requirements also means the challenges of housing headwinds should be easy for policymakers to counteract should we see signs of household distress in 2023. At the same time, a long period of low unemployment is likely to generate higher wages and partly offset the dampening effect of rising loan payments on consumer demand, reducing the risk of a housing-led downturn. On the upside, the prospects of a substantial shift away from COVID Zero policies in China continue to gather pace as a steady stream of announcements suggest the country is like to gradually reopen in 2023. The Chinese reopening could boost Australian GDP and increase the scope for the RBA to tighten rates further.
We see the RBA holding rates at 4.1% from May 2023. A rise in cash rates and signs of economic resilience should mean a flatter curve. We have also maintained a view that the AU 2s10s curve is too steep relative to other developed markets (a positive slope of 40bp for AU government bonds compared to -72 for the US). We continue to like a box flattener (AU steepener vs US flattener) and outright AU curve flatteners.
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THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES ON FOREX MARKETHello again! Interest rates can have a significant impact on the forex market , as they can affect the demand for and supply of different currencies. In general, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment and increase the demand for a currency, as investors can earn a higher return on their investments. This can lead to an appreciation of the currency in the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment and reduce the demand for a currency, leading to a depreciation of the currency in the forex market.
Interest rates can also affect the attractiveness of a country's assets, such as stocks and bonds, which can in turn affect the demand for its currency. For example, if a country has high interest rates, its assets may be more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
In addition to the interest rate level, the direction and pace of change in interest rates can also affect the forex market. If a central bank is expected to increase interest rates in the near future, it may lead to an appreciation of the currency, as investors anticipate higher returns on their investments. On the other hand, if a central bank is expected to lower interest rates, it may lead to a depreciation of the currency.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the forex market is complex and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and global market conditions.
TBT Ultrashort Treasuries Ready to ReverseFrom the chart, the uptrend from the market top November 2021 peaked and reversed from
a double top. Now on the downtrend , it has hit the Fib 0.5 level of the retracement.
I look for a reversal to the upside now as that Fib level is tested and holding.
I will play this with some call option contracts with an expiration in 4 weeks.
US10Y Critical point, break or hold on the Channel bottom!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low and it remains to be seen if the price reacts with a bounce. So far the move is much weaker than in August.
In order to extend our selling we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (OCtober 21 High) Resistance.
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$USDNOK - Now we wait...$USDNOK - Now we wait...
Another week for us traders to take advantage of
Excellent set up for usdnok - now we wait for a break to either direction we do have key fundamental data this week. Will Powell be as before dovish or will he hawkish as well as that softer cpi coming our way expected and then taking into consideration the technical view of usdnok it's not bad R/R either direction.
Trade Journal
Morning Update: 30Y Bond Yield This chart appears pretty well behaved. This decline in yield has come right into the .382% retracement area of wave 3 for a wave 4 bottom. If the 30Y bond continues to behave...yields are headed above 5%. To some of you reading this...that may sound like a stretch.
To those who like correlations...I wonder what happens to stocks if this plays out?
#whoisrightBonds_or_Stocks?
Best to all,
Chris
Stock-bond correlation and 60/40 portfolio are at crossroadsIn 2022 the diversification between stocks and bonds within a "60/40" portfolio was an ineffective strategy that yielded negative returns and, as a result, did not safeguard the investment.
The reason was that both equities and bonds plummeted in lockstep as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises, with the correlation reaching its highest level in a decade. The blue area in chart above shows the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ( BND ) ETF, which currently stands at 0.89.
The positive stock-bond correlation had typically worked when the two assets climbed upward together in the post-GFC decade, but in this new environment, it did the opposite and for a longer time than in 2008 and 2020.
Similar to 2008-2009, a 60/40 portfolio of global equities and bonds saw a maximum drawdown of 25% this year, but lasted more.
The fall from peak to trough of the 60/40 portfolio lasted 252 days between June 2008 and March 2009, just 35 days between February and March 2020, and 336 days in 2022, making it the longest 60/40 bear market in the past two decades.
60/40 portfolio and its drawdowns – 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) & 40% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND )
As we approach the final FOMC meeting of 2022, the future of bonds and stocks is at a crossroads, and a decoupling between the two assets may occur, making the 60/40 portfolio diversification plan more effective moving into 2023.
If the Fed signals that the end of the hike cycle is nearing and adopts a more dovish stance on inflation, both stocks and bonds will benefit from here.
If the Fed indicates that interest rates will continue to increase and that the window for a soft landing is narrowing, bonds will outperform stocks. However, equities will receive a boost when the recession comes and the Fed is pressured to cut interest rates.
The downside risk of this approach is an excessive tightening of interest rates by the Fed, which might increase bond yields even more (and cause prices to drop) and further devalue equity markets, extending the bear market for the 60/40 portfolio.
The 2023 trader playbook - the 5 biggest themes for the yearWith next week’s US CPI print and FOMC meeting offering the potential for further market volatility, it feels like these landmines are a fitting end to an incredibly eventful 2022.
We look back at the big themes that have driven cross-asset volatility and the conditions through which we’ve all had to adapt our trading – these include persistently high inflation, a worrying spike in the cost of living and aggressive rate hikes – yet resilient growth. We can also look at more regional-focused issues – a UK gilt tantrum driven by the Truss govt’s unfunded mini-budget, the invasion of Ukraine, the MOF/BoJ intervening to buy JPY and China’s Covid Zero policy.
The culmination of these factors created huge cross-asset volatility, decade-long market regime changes and lasting trending conditions.
Looking into 2023
Markets live in the future, and we look forward to the key themes that could cause volatility throughout 2023 – what’s important is not just to fully note these macro factors, but to understand the trigger points that offer a higher conviction of when to express the themes – taking this further, knowing the markets/instruments and strategies to express the theme is obviously advantageous.
These themes could alter market volatility, range expansion and market structure - so regardless of whether you’re purely automated or discretionary, it can pay to be aware.
While there are many more, these are five potential themes that I am looking at closely for 2023 that if triggered would affect the markets we trade.
1 - High inflation worries morph into growth concerns and a higher probability of a recession
US and global inflation in decline
• Market pricing (i.e. the inflation ‘fixings’ market) of future inflation shows US CPI inflation expected to fall to around 3% by year-end
• US M2 money supply has fallen from 26% to 1.3% - US headline CPI typically lags by 16 months
• Manufacturing PMI delivery-lead times and supply chain data suggest inflation falls hard in 2023
• Unit labour costs falling to 2.1%
Growth – while the consensus from economists is that the US economy narrowly avoids a recession, and EPS expectations have not been revised down to reflect recessionary conditions - the markets see a higher probability of this outcome – I back the markets, where we see:
• All parts of the US yield curve are inverted – US 2s vs 10s are the most inverted since 1981
• The US leading index (measures 10 key economic indicators) has turned negative and falling fast – this has an exemplary record of predicting US recessions
• Comments from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and BoA warning of tougher times ahead
Themes to trade as we price in a recession
• Consensus EPS expectations are cut by around 20% (from the highs), in turn, lifting PE multiples – traders will assess the trade-off between earnings downgrades vs a lower discount rate
• Steeper yield curves are a trigger – while now is not the time to put on curve steepeners, when short-dated US Treasury bond yields do fall/outperform, we’ll see a steeper yield curve – this could be the trigger for a sharp equity rally, led by financials
• As the US data deteriorates, we will likely see equity market drawdown, US treasury buying and selling of risk FX - it’s when central bankers acknowledge that growth is a greater concern the market will feel validated in its pricing of rate cuts – it’s here we see a risk rebound, broad USD selling and housing + lumber outperforming
• As bond yields fall, we should see solid outperformance from the JPY and CHF and EM assets
• USD initially works selectively vs global FX, but then reverses as conviction of the Fed cutting impacts and traders look ahead to a trough in the global growth slowdown
• Gold and silver rally hard as a hedge vs recession risk
2 - Central bank policy – assessing the potential for rate cuts
• The base case is rate hikes finish in Q1 23, followed by a pause – we then explore the possibility of rate cuts through Q4 23 – the Fed are clearly data dependent, so trends in the US (and global) data through Q2 will be key to markets
• Since 1995 there have been five occasions when the Fed has moved from hikes to rate cuts – the average time it takes to play out is 10.6 months (the longest period being 18 months, the shortest being 5 months)
• G7 balance sheet reduction and liquidity drain - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a big unknown. Federal Reserve liabilities are expected to fall towards $2.5t, a level where the market is concerned about the scarcity of reserves – traders will start to pay attention to the Fed funds effective – interest earned on excess reserves (IOER) spread for signs of scarcity and concerns that the repo market may be impacted and need support.
• It’s not just the Fed but the ECB and BoE (and others) will be reducing their balance sheets.
3 - China reopening and China's market outperformance
We’ve already seen a plethora of measures announced and Chinese markets have rallied hard – China is the elephant in the room when it comes to the global growth outlook for 2023 – a weak 1H23 seems likely but this will then followed by far stronger growth in 2H23 – after a poor 2022, Chinese assets could really outperform in 2023
• Long HK50 / short NAS100 could be a trade to look at if markets de-risk on a higher probability of a US recession
4 - BoJ policy recalibration – time for the JPY to fly
BoJ chief Kuroda steps down in April but there are already plans for a review of BoJ policy – it feels inevitable that we’ll see a 25bp lift to the BoJ’s YCC target to 50bp – we’ve already seen signs that Japanese banks/pension funds are moving capital back to Japan to get a more compelling return in the JGB market – but could a major policy change cause tremors in global bond markets and promote significant inflows into the JPY?
5 - Politics & Geopolitics – great for volatility, bad for humanity
Obviously one of the most important issues in 2022, not just for markets but humanity - always a hard one for traders to price risk around
• China/Taiwan – unlikely to be a 2023 story (hopefully not at all) but one that will come into the headlines periodically
• US and European/China relations
• Russia/Ukraine – could we hear more constructive signs of a ceasefire?
• Russia vs NATO – Putin has already suggested that the risk of a nuclear war has been rising – obviously if this really escalates it has the premise to dominate markets
• Given the divided Congress, could we see the US debt ceiling become a market concern?
Good luck to all
Dollar finding weakness! Below 200-SMAThe US dollar has seen a clear rejection from its 200 day SMA. Does this mean we might see S&P500 go back to the 4000 level and retest its 200-day SMA and the downward trend line? That is within the realm of possibilities, and cannot be discounted. But you know what has been performing phenomenally? BONDS! Both corporate and government bonds have been aggressively pushing higher, and no one was talking about this. Bonds love lowering yields! And wall street sniffs it out faster than anyone else, and builds a position accordingly. Will we see Bonds go higher? Let me know in the comments..
US02Y Showing the way to stock market recoveryThe US02Y has just completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a technical formation found on tops. The very same formation was last seen in October - December 2018 and caused a massive long-term drop on the US02Y. Check also the identical 1D RSI sequences leading to the top with Channel Down patterns.
The US02Y peak was translated into a fall on inflation (orange trend-line) and the stock market (S&P500 blue trend-line) immediately reacted. We've already seen a strong stock rally these past two months, but so far seems counter-trend.
Do you think the Fed and the CPI report next week can help sustain it?
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US10Y Time for it to decide the long term trendThe US10Y is approaching the Higher Lows support of the 2022 bullish trend. Holding it can make the price rebound back to the 1D MA50 (blue line) and the dashed line of its growth zone at least.
A break below it and in particular the 1D MA200 (orange line) can turn the trend bearish long term to the 1W MA100 (red line).
The 1D RSI is on its (oversold) Support level as well.
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