Get started

Bonds

A look at M2 Money Stock Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy. 1) Introduction: Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone. 2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market: Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance. Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental. Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices. Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations. 3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways: Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements. Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises. Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment. Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate. Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets. 4) Conclusion: M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.
FRED:WM2NS
by Dr_Roboto
US10Y Expecting a bullish reversal at the bottom.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) initially expanded but then took a breather on the new Bullish Leg, as per our January 24 (see chart below) buy signal, before hitting our Target: The price is now approaching the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up yet again and by next week a 1D Death Cross will be completed. The 2 previous such formations within the Channel Up, have both been made right on its Higher Lows. As a result, we consider this a great bullish opportunity for the medium-term. Our Target is intact at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
How will the market react after the next US election?How will the market perform if either Biden or Trump wins? That should be an easy question to answer, as we can track the market performance on the first day each became President of the United States. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
Bullish Divergence + Pinbar in TLTI'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really start moving. There is some overhead resistance that the market will need to overcome and I expect plenty of volatility, so safest play may be to have a stop just below the 23' lows and then stay hands off and give it room to run.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by krugman87
1
$TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders, In technical analysis of Treasury Bond ETFs, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal signal. It occurs when the ETF's price forms three distinct troughs, with the middle trough ("head") being the lowest and the two outer troughs ("shoulders") being higher. A "neckline" is drawn connecting the highs of the two shoulders. When the price breaks above this neckline, usually with increased volume, it confirms the pattern and signals a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The distance between the head and the neckline can be projected upward from the breakout point to estimate a price target for the potential rally. However, traders often combine this pattern with other indicators like moving averages or oscillators for further confirmation and risk management.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
Yields are in a do or die situationYields are pulling back a bit from the run they had yesterday. It was expected to have a bounce at the support levels. The 2Yr & 10Yr #Yield both look as if they want to settle a bit but time till tell . We will see how Yield reacts over the next few days. It is important as a crashing yield can mean higher prices all across the board in many assets. We've stated before that they CANNOT lower rates but at the same time CANNOT raise them. Seems as if they are playing around a bit providing liquidity to keep markets propped up a bit AND they may keep rates steady or just have 1 rate drop, before election. TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
India's inclusion in the JPMorgan Index is set to unlock billionBig Win for India: Indian government bonds are now included in JPMorgan's emerging markets index, a first for the world's fastest-growing large economy. This move is expected to trigger significant foreign investments, reshape India's financial landscape, and boost economic growth. Opening the Doors: The inclusion grants India a 10% share in the index, following the 2020 relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions. Analysts predict an additional $30 billion inflow over the next ten months, potentially raising foreign ownership from 2% to 5%. Market Reactions: The yield on Indian bonds has already decreased, reflecting rising prices. However, bureaucratic hurdles remain a challenge for some investors. Positive Outlook: Despite recent political developments, India's economic outlook is strong. S&P Global is considering a credit rating upgrade, and India offers a good yield premium with strong growth and favorable inflation. Future Potential: India's bond market is poised for further growth with potential inclusion in additional benchmarks like the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Index and FTSE Russell. Managing Volatility: The Reserve Bank of India is confident in its ability to manage potential market volatility due to the country's substantial foreign reserves exceeding $650 billion. Overall, this inclusion marks a watershed moment for India's financial market, attracting foreign capital, lowering borrowing costs, and propelling economic growth.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by signalmastermind
KRE: Regional Bank Collapse?Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action. With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well. Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation. We just witnessed today the Canadian CPI came in much hotter. To make matters worse, were at a time when central banks like the ECB, BOC, PBOC, BOJ are all loosening policy. However this very laxy=daisy policy is what caused Oil to bottom on June 4th. Oil has since moved up 13% in 2.5 weeks. This will likely cause yields to have upward pressure since its inflationary to the economy. If the US CPI comes in hotter expect no 2024 rate cut...banks would hate that. Im eyeing the head and shoulders breakdown.
AMEX:KRE
by Trading-Capital
Yields are still selling off after yesterday's dropLet's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we have stated COUNTLESS times. They CANNOT lower rates but MUST lower them.
TVC:US02YShort
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 14 - US10Y - (3rd June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing US10Y, starting from the 3-Month chart. - R2F
TVC:US10YEducation
by Road_2_Funded
Long term perspectiveThe short term pull back can be an effect due to the upcoming interest rate this upcoming june, and this pull back is a good sign of buying opportunity for long-term. The key point in here is that the bond is set to move downward means the dollar might also fall and so the stocks will do the opposite direction. Dollar cost averaging I believe is the best strategy for now due to uncertainty of when will the market executw the direction that we are eyeing. This is a pov, an speculation, invest at your own risk.
TVC:US01YLong
by IMODERAT0RI
We have a Grey Rhino here - Markets are driven by ignoranceThe US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because when they start charging, we can never outrun them. In this market context, we face a big, obvious problem that investors completely ignore until it becomes a crisis. It's different from a "black swan," which is a rare and unpredictable event. When we recognize that there are problems many do not understand, we have already won half the battle. U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02YShort
by konhow
5
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up. Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
Economic Overview | The "Yellowstone Bubble"On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice a year".... What?....WHAT? My first thought: we don't need to be lectured on how often we should be checking on our retirement funds. But this got me thinking, WHY do these "professional money managers" insist that working people not pay attention to their money?? I am speculating here, but I assume it is because retirement fund managers (large investment institutions) are also in the business of making money and therefore TAKING PROFIT. Is there any evidence for this?... Well, yes: Now factor in all of the nonsense that is constantly pumped by television commentators, meme stock pumpers, crypto fantasies, immature CEOs, and more recently - celebrities and professional athletes. Have you ever stopped to think about the fact that there is a television commercial for $QQQ... Things have become so obscene that money managers are paying for airtime to deceptively lure regular people into buying their securities, so they can take profits, after already receiving bailouts. You've seen it, there are several versions of the same commercial and the narrative goes something like "I'm investing in QQQ for the future". The Unemployment Rate has bottomed - there is no more growth to be had and even if we were to see unemployment trend below 3%, we can go back to the early 1950s and 1960s to see that financial markets really DON'T return much more below 3% unemployment; again this is because there is no more growth below 3% and therefore marginally less return. Credit card delinquency is rising rapidly, thanks to inflation from Covid helicopter money. And Household Debt-to-GDP has also bottomed. This one is particularly concerning because as we just explained, there is no more growth to be achieved from here (UNRATE). So, ask yourself: what happens if GDP falls ? Answer: household debt as a proportion of GDP rises by at leas that amount (it's a ratio - it has no choice). Expanding on this question, ask yourself: what happens if household debt continues to rise, amid maxed out unemployment? Answer: the already record profit-margins of investment banks increase to highly unstable levels, thereby further incentivizing profit-taking. Anyway, I am calling this market the Yellowstone Bubble . Everyone is a rich tough-guy cattle rancher, everyone is a crypto professional, everyone thinks "Tesla is the future" (LOL), everyone is an AI expert, everyone is a pro because they scroll forums and listen to some podcast. In a world that runs on "users" and "clicks" and web traffic, you must remain vigilant! Take care!
FRED:UNRATEShort
by ChiefMacro