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Bonds

DOW / NASDAQBear Market signals persist. When the DOW begins to outperform on the downside, we have a clear indication of a lengthy BEAR Market. It's just beginning. Counter Trends are a normal course in prolonged Trends. The ONLY real reversal... QE: Global Central Banks began withdrawing Liquidity via RRP's since July of 2021. The contraction made a controlled contraction below 0 into a negative range well below the Peak Monthly $1.5T down to $300B and on down to 0 in January, going - $250B during the 3rd week of January - they have maintained the drain since this time... it is remained between -$180 to -$255B to the present. Lows into October 2023 imho.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
Macroeconomic: Long Bonds/Stocks, Short GoldGold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also continue to rally which will be good for both bonds and stocks. For Gold, here you can see the EW justification for a return to lower levels as part of a 4th wave (before eventually making new highs). Then a zoom in on the current breakdown: I think a short position in Gold is justified, as well as long Stocks. The bottom in Bonds has not yet shown itself but could be any minute or day IMHO. I think the biggest risk to this macroeconomic analysis is that we will see a deflation across multiple assets as a result of rising rates, which will be apparent if stocks don’t rally and bonds continue lower.
CBOT:UB1!
by FuturesIntelTM
Bonds Continue the Bear RoutBonds have taken another turn south, after flirting briefly with 119'23. With the Fed maintaining their hawkish stance, there is little to support a breakout, or a significant technical retracement. We have broken through lows at 119'01, and are currently hovering over our next target at 188'04. The Kovach OBV has been abysmally bearish for some time now, but does seem to be gradually leveling off, perhaps indicating a bottom soon. If we see a relief rally, then 119'23 should provide resistance.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis) Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio). I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently. I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal. Cheers
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Elliot618
Bond yields in the era of high inflationAs you can see on the main chart, 10y bond yields have broken above their downwards channel and are now back at their 2013-2018 highs. Based on technical analysis we don't have a confirmation that the trend has fully reversed until we get a close above 3.2%, but we are pretty close to breaking above that level too. Now we aren't only seeing the 10y yields rise, as all kinds of maturities are rising at the same time and are rising pretty fast. The trend is showing no signs of exhaustion and this could get pretty ugly for the world economy, as the Fed has barely raised rates so far and they are threatening to raise rates by 0.5% at every meeting in 2022. Many analysts claim that the bond market is broken and that yields will rise even further, but are they correct? Well the truth is that the way bond market topped (yields bottomed) in March 2020 is definitely an indication that a bull market is over. Currently the market has broken below most major support lines and seems to be accelerating rather than decelerating, while the correction from the peak is indicating that the bull market is over, as during bull markets corrections tend to stay within a certain range, and this correction is way larger than any previous corrections. At the same time the 2y year yields are above 2.5%, a level that they 'shouldn't' have broken if the bond bull was intact. The reason behind this is that usually 2y bond yields would never go above the peak of the Fed Funds Rate and during the last hiking cycle the FFR had peak at 2.5%. Currently the 2y yields look like the formed the perfect round bottom (bullish technical pattern) and have broken above their downwards channel and could also be headed higher in the medium to long term (an indication that the bond bull could be over). However not everything is really bearish for bonds at the moment and there is some hope for the bull market, even if that means we only get a strong bounce before going lower. As the 10y and 30y yields haven't broken above their resistance levels yet, it might be a good time to start buying bonds. Why? Well as yields are at resistance, bonds are close to support. The actual bonds are so oversold, that the current move might be getting totally irrational. Yes inflation is going up, yes inflation could go higher and inflation expectations keep rising, but the rate of inflation could come down. Not only that, but the Fed is so trapped that everyone knows they can't really raise rates much more or sell bonds without breaking the market. Financial conditions have already tightened so much, that investors will eventually run to the safety of bonds which finally have a pretty attractive yield. Of course my reasoning doesn't just rely on some random fundamental analysis, but also some technical factors. The first one has to do with how this break of the trendline could be a trap and this move is headed straight into a very important area in which there is strong support. On TLT there is a major gap at an area that was support, it was broken and then the market quickly closed back above it. That's the perfect place to go long. The second one has to do with the fact that the yield curve had inverted and has now un-inverted itself. Usually inversions happen close to the bottom of the bond market (peak in yields) and therefore this could be another useful signal that a bottom isn't far away. Again this doesn't mean that someone has to go long right now or go long big, just that maybe its time to cut down shorts and put on some small longs. Personally I like to move between being a bond bull or bear based on the data and not have dogmatic views about what will happen in the future. Finally I'd like to talk a bit about junk bonds, which are at the same level they were when the Fed had raised rates at 2.5% and kept saying that they would keep hiking. With so much debt in the world, the Fed threatening to keep hiking rates and the global economy being in shambles due to Covid-19, aging demographics, supply chain issues, lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and commodity shortages, it is hard for someone to really see how owning junk bonds is a good long term bet here. Shorting junk bonds is probably the best bet someone could take at this stage, if he/she believes that there is going to be a major collapse either in the stock market or the bond market. What I find very interesting is how resilient American companies have proven to be, and how after so many major crashes since 2008, now junk bonds are rallying against treasuries. By looking at the HYG/TLT ratio, we can see how they have outperformed since the March 2020 crash, potentially due to how much the US government has support those companies and how much more the private sector has benefited from low rates and money printing compared to the public sector. By adding to the mix how strong stocks have been over the last 2 years despite all the negative events, we can make sense of why junk bonds are outperforming us treasuries. Maybe this is also a major sign that buying stocks is a much better idea in the long term than buying bonds, and that the stock bull market is still intact, but that's a topic which I will discuss in another idea. In conclusion, the bond bull could be over. There are several signs indicating extreme weakness in bonds as inflation expectations keep rising and the Fed is unwilling to support the bond market. Yet we are at levels that not buying bonds seems like the wrong decision, even if buying them would only for a short time period only.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
Man Behind The CurtainThe FED's monetary policy is a lot like that scene in the Wizard of Oz where they think they are communicating with a great and supremely powerful wizard, but Dorothy's dog incidentally pulls back the curtain while sniffing his leg. To the disdain of Dorothy, Tin and Straw man, it's just some goofy looking guy pulling levers and talking through a loudspeaker while pressing buttons to release fire and smoke. Dorothy proclaims "You are a very bad man!", and the wizard says "No, I'm just a very bad wizard." Look it up if you haven't seen it. Highly recommended! This is exactly what's happening to the FED. Lots of fire, smoke, ego stroking going on among the board members who think they are all powerful, supreme beings. Oh and don't forget about the insider trading and general theft of what is supposed to be the public's money supply. In GOD we trust? More like, In SMOKE we trust. Eventually, the curtain will be revealed and the irrational belief of the wizard will be no more. If you look at ONLY junk bonds (orange), which is what this idea is about, as opposed to other facets which the FED is able to "bail out" the economy, you can see that the market was beginning to signal in 2008 that investors should avoid risk. Yields were going up, bond prices were declining. An economy with such conditions where people save and preserve wealth is blasphemous behavior in the church of the FED and WILL NOT BE TOLERATED. Bonds were quickly bailed out over the next few years while rates were suppressed and the entire market was coerced into the FED's vision. If you adjust the junk bond index in real terms and simply divide by the money supply (teal line), you can see that with the 2020 bailout, the current purchasing power of bonds has been eroded to the 2008 level, right at the point where people were beginning to save money. Other things have been bailed out as well via the money supply this time around, so we're certainly looking at a skewed metric here. But in junk bond terms, It looks like we would need even more stimulus to stop a deflationary spiral beyond what was seen in 2008-2010 if bond investors are looking at real M2 adjusted terms. The money supply ALWAYS speaks the truth, historically speaking. Now, contrast this with the current outlook of the FED where they are soon going to be selling "assets" off their balance sheet at a maximum of about 90 billion per month. How are WE, the general public, supposed to believe that a deflationary spiral is avoidable if real bond valuations are already at a level where a bailout was "necessary" to these "wizards" in 2008, while at the same time, they haven't even begun offloading these "assets" which they have recently accumulated, which someone is suddenly supposed to want to buy at a record pace not seen before?? Maybe they will finally raise rates and will buy all junk bonds? I mean who else is buying junk bonds, seriously? If something has to be labelled as "high yield", we should probably be skeptical beyond the point of being able to be persuaded UNTIL the market speaks otherwise. But at the same time, they cannot raise rates very far, at least not to the point which is necessary or was necessary in 1980, for example. Just something to think about. In my opinion, there is NO WAY the M2 can ever be contracted, at least not by the amount the FED wants. You pretty much need exponential expansion forever. And at this point, why would anyone believe them? In 2018 they released a projection that their balance sheet would be down to 2T by 2022. Their credibility and foresight is awful. A randomized monte carlo simulation was more accurate than their predictions, so why should we believe in a delirious vision? As far as I'm concerned, until the FED lets their 7T bag of crap rot, we've got a communist monetary policy where the government owns a stake of everything. Just think of how many businesses are backed directly or indirectly by mortgage backed securities and junk bonds, which the FED has purchased using the wealth of the public. I couldn't think of a more pure definition of communism. Those "assets" were paid for with stolen wealth and these actions are a repellent to any free market economy or dynamics. In a free market, bankruptcy is allowed and malinvestment is left to crash and burn and is NOT ABLE to bring the rest of the economy down with it. We don't have that. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How I got the values in the chart: Pay no attention to the actual values in the chart other than M2. The other values are purely to make a side by side comparison that looks decent on a log scale chart. 520W(10 year) MA of M2 = 4845136 520W(10 year) MA of HYG = 87.68 M2 is in millions, HYG is not, but we can ignore this because we are adjusting for relative averages. 4845136 / 87.68 = 55259 Now we simply chart HYG*55259, and now HYG in 10 YR terms is charted relative to the 10 YR MA of the M2. In order to chart HYG/WM2NS, I simply stuck a multiplier at the front, and added zeroes until it looked good on the chart. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for reading! I really do appreciate your time and I hope my perspective was somehow useful to you. Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)
FRED:WALCL
by fringe_chartist
1
Yield is overbought AND at a resistance level?What will happen IF it gets rejected and falls back? Investopedia (below) "How Growth and the Stock Market Influence Bond Yields During periods of economic expansion, bond prices and the stock market move in opposite directions because they are competing for capital. Selling in the stock market leads to higher bond prices and lower yields as money moves into the bond market. Stock market rallies tend to raise yields as money moves from the relative safety of the bond market to riskier stocks. When optimism about the economy increases, investors transfer funds into the stock market because it benefits more from economic growth." Source: www.investopedia.com This makes me question about: Where is the cash going? bond lower, stocks lower, crypto lower... Is it that the cash is just being moved? and what if it is being moved OUT of bonds (and so making the Yield higher) to .... where (and when)? Oh, and do you see any higher highs in this chart? because we will see one if the yield is strong enough to BROKE the MA200.
TVC:US10Y
by camelot0707
2
10yr with MOVE What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use it as hedge just like I use the VIX with ES. We all know we are in a bear market it's very different to what we experience in the pandemic there are major shifts have occurred and will be occurring for the months and years ahead. What does this mean for Bond market? Well, due to inflation pressures globally, dxy heads higher, but most markets I trade is US bonds we have inverted when it comes to yields 2/10yr to negative state... What does this mean? Simply we may have stagflation or recession heading in next 18-24 months. Now sure, that could head earlier into that, inflation figures are at record highs, GDP figures getting questionable and let me tell you something it's hurting us as consumers no matter what country you are in, I'm sure in UK residences you'd had a your energy bills - lovely weren't they (Sarcasm). Take a look at history of cycles, and actually last time china came into help but I don't think they will this time but this cycle is obviously different but a change is yet to come further. This is explained in-depth in the week ahead videos, but most importantly - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! It's so important to test various tools out in trading and see what suits you personally best. There is no one set way of trading, we all got various different plans. I have been using the MOVE index with 2/10/30yrs and it's been working out great, just little tip for you guys on how many great metrics there are out there that can help make you make investment decisions. Those groups I am part of know what trades I am part of . Next great move will be coming as we have had Feds minutes, Hawkish but we also have had plenty of Fed speakers and now we could rally even more 50 basis hikes and most of it is priced in as market is forward looking...Now don't forget higher dollar, the yen another currency pair that was great to be looking out on, housing market🎈, credit spreads, think about EM market! Things are going to get even more interesting! Stay tuned Hope this in-depth analysis helps you. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:US10Y
by Trade_Journal
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term. Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been. Good luck in the New World Order! Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc. (Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
TVC:US10YLong
by MonetaryRebel
1