Get started

Bonds

Will the Bond Market Continue to Sell Off??Bonds have reached a relative high at 123'01 to the tick then promptly rejected this level. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance and we headed straight back down to through the 122 handle to finally find support at 121'28. We are currently seeing some support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV has taken a steep dive south suggesting the bear rout is about to pick up again. If so, the next target is 121'00, then 120'14. If we are wrong, we must break through 123'01 before we can consider higher levels.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Elliott Wave Analysis: German Bund Is Trading At SupportHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about German Bund, where we see very interesting support level after recent bond market crash. As you can see, bonds are sharply down and if we take a look at German Bund monthly chart, from Elliott Wave perspective, we can still see a corrective decline within higher degree wave (IV). From technical perspective, ideal support would be here at the former wave IV, 38,2% Fibo. retracement, base channel upper line and the 155 - 150 area. So, be aware of limited decline and watch out for bounce and new rally within higher degree wave (V) soon. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by ew-forecast
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H1 Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 149'12 Pivot: 148'14 Support : 146'14 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku resistance, we see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 148'14 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 146'14 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 149'12 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: Economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy causes bearish sentiments around the bonds market.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
Sell Signal ZNM22Sell Signal Entry - 124'19 Buy Stop: 126'27 1st Take Profit - 123'06 For Daily Support/Resistance levels click here! www.cannontrading.com **Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not indicative of future results** Visit www.cannontrading.com to learn more about the risk associated with trading futures.
CBOT:ZNM2022Short
by Cannon-Trading
$TLT, Bonds long ideaAfter the whole round trip that started when covid hit, I think we are getting closer to a big, long position in bonds. The price range on the chart is where I will start buying and expecting to see seller exhaustion and trouble pushing it down further. Sentiment is really weak and you have people late to party trying to short right now to pick pennies in front of a steamroller. As an ideal target for $TLT we are talking $150 at least, so, due to the magnitude of the move, we are talking about a long term position or around 6 months out. Obviously seeing the volatility in this period and the little liquidity in markets I could be wrong, meaning the move much quicker. GL
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PurpleGoat
May The Odds Be Ever in Your FavorNot exactly making a bearish call here, just posting to bring awareness to some over ambitious traders out there. Past 3 out of 4 trend reversals on the MACD measured in total market cap have resulted in drawdowns of double digits or more. With Bollinger Bands trading at the top of the range for several days we may see a short term return of the bears fueled by short term holders looking to exit the market and break even from q4 trades. Given the current geopolitical situation, bond yield curve inversion, credit market jitters and fed surprises and half of this being priced in already, I dont think anyone knows which way is up anymore. Now is the time to watch where the smart money goes and not be a hero. Added to BTC and ETH positions with stops in at 43k and 2.9k respectively.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by ChimeraHoldings
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market. Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment. The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes. Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
AMEX:LQD
by SpyMasterTrades
4
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
10-Year Treasury Yield Pushes to Fresh 2022 High, Now What?The 10-year Treasury yield soared to a new high over the past 24 hours, confirming the breakout above peaks from June - July 2019. Yields are now testing the former 2.34 - 2.43 support zone. Extending gains above the former exposes 2.61 before the 2019 high at 2.79 comes into play. These may offer the next critical levels of resistance as hawkish US monetary policy expectations rise. A bullish Golden Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages remain in play. Keep a close eye on these as key support in the event of a turn lower. TVC:US10Y
TVC:US10Y
by QM_Dubrovsky
Treasuries Continue to Toss their Cookies20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve. "We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government, are getting curb stomped, losing almost -20% over the course of the last 18 months. But are bonds "safe," really? It's a seriously problem in our industry - at least I think so... For any investor with a "Balanced" (i.e. - 60/40) or worse yet, "Conservative" (40/60) portfolio model, how do you (as the investor) react to a portfolio that's losing money, not only because stocks are falling in value, but because bonds are getting taken to the cleaners as well? Not to go out on a limb here, but I'm going to make the assumption that most of those on TradingView are a little more knowledgable than the average investor. Furthermore, I'd go so far as to say that most are probably avoiding the bond market like we avoided COVID-19 in March of 2020. I won't make blanket advice here and say to that, "Well.... good, then!" However, I WILL say that at our office, we've been underweighting bonds, overweighting stocks and commodities, and tweaking the target allocations a bit (to all our models) to make up for the possibility that we might be coming out of a 35-year bull market in bonds, as the pendulum swings toward higher long-term rates 3, 5, 10+ years from now. While we don't own any 20-year Treasuries at our office, if you DO, I'd be looking at the horizontal line in the sand below current price, which could act as a potential level of support... but if broken, all bets are off.
NASDAQ:TLT
by CMT_Association
3
ZB1! (10 Year T-bonds ) , H1 Bearish dropType: Bearish drop Resistance: 154'13 Support: 151'09 Pivot: 153'11 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastic indicator and ichimoku cloud, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot of 153'11 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance to our 1st support of 151'09 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternative Scenario : Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 154'13 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: With the uncertainty of the RUSSO-UKRAINE conflict and the implications on the US economy due to increase increase sanctions. Bond prices will continue to increase as increase frequency of rate hikes seems more unlikely. As fundamentals and technicals align, ZB1! might be a good opportunity to look into.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv